Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 012001
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED SQUARELY ON ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

CURRENTLY... A LINE OF CU AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LIFT FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS VISIBLY ON WV... SIMILAR TO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH... ASSOCIATED WITH A 310K ISENTROPIC RESPONSE. GIVEN
CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ANY UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTN WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER... THE BETTER
POTENTIAL EXISTS IN FAR N/NE OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO THIS
AFTN/EVENING... WHERE ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A
BETTER LL MOISTURE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FOR CENTRAL OK... HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE NERN OK/KS BORDER
AND SERN KS... WHERE THE BETTER LL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS... WITH
0-1KM SRH VALUES INCREASING THIS AFTN TO NEAR 300 M2/S2.

OVERNIGHT... THE LARGER WRN TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
FORCING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...
TIMING/LOCATION OF ACTIVITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE... AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INITIALLY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING AS THE PRIMARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/AFTN. OVERALL... CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLGT TO CHC POPS ACROSS NWRN AND CENTRAL/SRN OK... WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER... WITH HIGHS TMRW IN THE 70S ACROSS NWRN OK TO THE MID 80S
IN CENTRAL OK TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP
OUT IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL REBOUND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
80S BY SUNDAY... CONTINUING TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS S/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST. WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S BY WED... HIGHS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
80S ACROSS OK TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS TEXOMA.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  83  53  72 /  30  40  10   0
HOBART OK         67  81  52  74 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  88  56  79 /  20  30  10   0
GAGE OK           57  73  45  71 /  20  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  78  51  69 /  60  50  10   0
DURANT OK         71  89  57  78 /  20  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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