Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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410
FXUS64 KOUN 280449
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 06Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front and outflow boundaries across Oklahoma has left a
chaotic wind pattern along I-44, with more generally north breezes
farther north, and light south winds to the south. The front
should continue to advance south overnight, so all TAF sites will
have generally northerly/northeasterly winds during the day on
Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms may form overnight across
Oklahoma, but it is not possible to say where or when with any
accuracy. There will be a higher chance Friday afternoon and early
evening, primarily over western and southwestern Oklahoma.
Chances are currently high enough to mention only in the KHBR and
KCSM TAFs.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

UPDATE...
Lowered POPs for the rest of the night and updated cloud cover.

DISCUSSION...
Convection is not quite as extensive as previously forecast. CAMS
continue to suggest redevelopment along the 850mb front, but given
their current poor performance, not very confident in their
solution. Nevertheless, there is a front still in place so left
some low POPs overnight.

Day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

AVIATION...
Main impact is ongoing thunderstorms, especially around KOKC,
KOUN, and KCSM. Expect these storms to continue for another one to
three hours before dying down. Another round of thunderstorms is
approaching from the Texas panhandle, most likely impacting KGAG
and KWWD later this evening. KPNC may see the remnants of these
storms overnight, but not confident enough to include in TAFs at
this point. Otherwise, outside of convection, winds will remain
light with the cold front and associated north winds continuing
southward.

Day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers have developed over the past hour in the vicinity
of a prefrontal trough/cold front in western and central Oklahoma.
With hot and somewhat dry conditions, strong outflow winds will
be possible with the stronger storms this afternoon. Convection
that develops in this area will likely weaken during the early
evening.

Additional storms are forming in the Oklahoma and Texas
panhandles in advance of a mid level trough axis/vort max. By this
evening, better mid level ascent may result in more organized
convection that will mainly impact the northern half of Oklahoma.
PWATs along and north of the surface boundary are very high
(1.8-2.1) so areas of locally heavy rainfall are possible.

The front will continue to push southward tonight into Friday and
is expected to stall across northern/central Texas. Drier air will
begin to filter into north central Oklahoma by late Friday, with
rather humid conditions remaining across the rest to the forecast
area. Will allow the Heat Advisory to expire this evening, but a
few areas in far southern Oklahoma and north Texas may have heat
index values near 105 Friday afternoon. Better rain chances Friday
night/early Saturday will be across southern/western Oklahoma and
north Texas.

Drier air will continue to push south and west on Saturday,
bringing much needed relief from rather hot and humid conditions.
Over the weekend, western Oklahoma will have the best opportunity
for rain/storms.

As the upper ridge shifts farther west late Sunday/Monday,
another disturbance may bring a better opportunity for rain and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  93  72  91 /  40  20  20  20
Hobart OK         76  96  73  93 /  40  30  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  78 101  75  95 /  20  20  30  20
Gage OK           72  84  69  91 /  40  50  40  30
Ponca City OK     75  90  67  88 /  30  10  10   0
Durant OK         79  98  74  92 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/14/23



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