Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 031121
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-NUM -SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF KEND-KOKC-KADM
THROUGH 17Z AT THE LATEST. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH -SHRA.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS NEAR KWWR...
KGAG...KCSM...AND KHBR THROUGH 17Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

ISO-NUM TSRA WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 21Z...MAINLY IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ONLY ADDED -TSRA AT KWWR AND KGAG 03-07Z WHERE
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS HIGHEST. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH TSRA.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS CONTENDING WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERHAPS THE HOTTEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS THE NEXT CONCERN.

THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THESE SHOULD FALL APART AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AND
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-40.

THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD
BE SLOW MOVERS AND PULSE IN NATURE. THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE RATHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW.

BELIEVE CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY...SO WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DEPICTING THAT A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
KEEP THE COMPLEX ORGANIZED. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE THE GREATER HAZARD AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A
FEW INCHES OR RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH 2
INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MAY REFORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE AS STRONGER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS...BUT NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING THE LOCATION OF RAIN AND
RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT
FROM THE 80S IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY FORM AND AFFECT THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD BRING STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO
THESE AREAS. CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW AS CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG AND THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF STORMS MAY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POINTS NORTHEAST...
BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDNESDAY...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS CAPPING WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE DAY. HEAT WILL BUILD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES OR
PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOT...HOT...HOT WEATHER WITH VERY LOW TO
NO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. LATEST MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND BEEN SUGGESTING A
STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WENT CONSERVATIVE
WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE. HEAT ADVISORIES OR PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         93  72  98  73 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  75  99  76 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           90  68  93  69 /  30  60  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     93  70  86  72 /  10  40  60  40
DURANT OK         98  74  97  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



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