Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 261722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Updated aviation section for 18z TAF package


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Warm and humid conditions will persist today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Models indicate the cold front will move
across the PAH forecast tonight and will be located east of our
region by 12z Wednesday. Any precipitation will be post frontal,
with GFS showing some light QPF across our area Wednesday
afternoon. ECMWF has gone back and forth showing a few blips of
precipitation at the same time, so it seems reasonable to just
include some slight chances. Both models show some low level CAPE
and LIs near 0, so included a slight chance of thunderstorms. Dry
conditions will return Wednesday night.

The cooler, drier air will lag well behind the front, so highs on
Wednesday will still reach the 80s. Dew points will gradually drop
late in the day into Wednesday night, so after lows in the middle
to upper 60s Tuesday night, lows Wednesday night will be in the
middle 50s to around 60 degrees.

High pressure will be building southward out of Canada, and we
will get to enjoy near seasonal conditions. Thursday will be
mostly sunny with highs only climbing into the middle to upper
70s, with lows Thursday night in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

On Friday, an upper level trough will move across the Great Lakes
region and onto the east coast by 12Z Saturday. Surface high
pressure will track from the western Great Lakes into the eastern
seaboard from Friday and through the weekend.

Cold air advection will be ongoing at the start of the extended
period, bringing in a cooler and drier airmass on northeasterly flow
at the surface. Even though 850mb temperatures would suggest rather
cool high temperatures, we will see rather decent mixing due to the
dry air in place. Therefore, with full sunshine and dry air, we will
likely see highs on Friday in the upper 70s. This dry air will also
mean cooler nights. Friday night and also Saturday night, lows could
dip into the upper 40s up north, otherwise lows will be in the lower

Saturday continues to look like the coolest day as temperatures rise
from the lower 50s in the morning into the lower to mid 70s by
afternoon as cool northeasterly flow at the surface continues. An
upper level ridge will be building into the area as well, providing
continued dry weather with mostly sunny skies.

Saturday night into Sunday, the upper high will shift east and with
the surface high now on the east coast, surface winds will become
more southeasterly. We will see temperatures rise just a bit for
Sunday, so highs will remain in the mid to upper 70s with still no
rain in sight. Better moisture starts returning Sunday night into
Monday, but the bulk of it stays just to our west. Meanwhile,
temperatures continue to slowly climb back to near 80 degrees for


Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Diurnal cumulus clouds will be mainly scattered this afternoon, with
bases around 5k feet. Some areas of broken cu are likely, and an
isolated shower or two could pop up. The cumulus clouds will
dissipate with the loss of heating around sunset, followed by mainly
clear skies this evening. Winds will be light and variable.

A cold front will arrive later tonight, bringing a broken deck of
mid-level clouds. No precipitation is currently expected with the
front. Some patchy mvfr fog is likely at fog-prone locations around
sunrise. Behind the front, winds will become north around 10 knots
on Wed morning.




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