Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 060713
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
213 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

As the deep upper low moves off the Atlantic Seaboard, a large
ridge of high pressure will migrate eastward from the Plains
as we head into the weekend. This will result in dry weather and
more sunshine through the first half of the weekend. By Saturday
night and Sunday, the ridge will be suppressed to the south by a
deepening low over southeast Canada. A cold front is forecast to
drop south into the northern half of the area Saturday night and
Sunday, which will bring a small chance of showers and storms to
locations along and north of the boundary. The chance of showers
and thunderstorms should refocus to our west by Sunday night as
energy streams ahead of a low approaching from the Plains. Overall
though, rain chances through the weekend remain rather low, with
the best chance focused along and north of I-64.

A moderating trend is expected through the short term. Highs will
warm from the 70s today into the lower 80s Saturday, and near 80
on Sunday. Lows will warm from the 50s tonight into the lower 60s
by Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

We continue to see an unsettled stretch of weather in the long term.
An upper low over the central/northern Plains will open up with
remnant/assoc energy ejecting ENE across our area. This energy is
still forecast to interact with adequate moisture and instability
for on and off convective chances through the long term. PoPs will
be on the increase from west to east Monday through Monday night as
the first wave of energy moves across the area. After that, it
becomes more unclear the spatial and temporal aspects of convection
Tuesday through Thursday. We will remain warm sector through
Wednesday night. Then a surface front should move through Thursday
morning. The pattern looks like one that could be MCS supportive.
Again, awful far out in time to be too detailed. The blends have
rather continual high PoPs. It is unlikely it will end up that way,
so we gradually lower values Tuesday and beyond, after incorporating
the uncertainty element. It will be warm and seasonably humid. We
continue to use persistence with a blend of the latest ops/ensemble
MOS output for temperatures. Model preference is ECMWF/ECENS blend
with minor GFS incorporation as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Fri May 6 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Diurnal
cumulus development is possible today, but with few to scattered
coverage at best. A scattered to broken mid deck is possible
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Northwest winds AOB
10 knots today will become light southwesterly tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP



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