Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240529
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1229 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions continue at this hour under mostly clear skies.
Broken MVFR CIGs remain possible overnight, mainly over DHN and
ABY, with patchy fog possible in and around VLD. Light winds
should preclude excessively low vsbys in any areas of fog that
form. Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions to prevail through
the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [653 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The occluded low over the Mid-Atlantic will move northeast
overnight, with low amplitude ridging moving into the Southeast.
At the surface, gusty northwest winds will continue but gradually
weaken through the night. CAA will push lows down into the mid 40s
across Georgia and Alabama tonight, with upper 40s to low 50s
expected in north Florida. Lingering cloud cover from this
afternoon should clear east by this evening, with only a small
chance for a brief round of low clouds across parts of our AL/GA
counties overnight.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will prevail through Wednesday, though it will
dampen out a bit on Wednesday with the approach of a longwave
trough. Wednesday night, the core of the trough will move into the
Great Lakes region and a cold front will begin to move through the
Tri-State region. Rain is expected over night, but thunderstorms
are not.

High temperatures will climb through the period, with mid to upper
60s on Tuesday and mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday
night will once again be in the middle 40s, but moderate well into
the 50s on Wednesday night ahead of the cold front.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The cold front will push through the area by Thursday afternoon, with
PoPs ranging from 20% in SE Alabama to 30% in the Big Bend. By
Friday upper level flow will be zonal and remain that way for the
rest of the period. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind the
front with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid 30s.


.MARINE...

Prevailing Gale conditions have come to an end across our
northeast Gulf waters with only occasional Gale gusts continuing.
These gusts should fall solidly into Advisory levels in the next
couple of hours. Winds will gradually subside through the night
and seas a little slower to follow. It appears as though Advisory
winds and seas will cease by morning tomorrow. Winds should stay
relatively light for about 24 hours before possibly reaching
Cautionary levels once again by Wednesday or Wednesday night.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather issues are expected through the next several days as
RH values remain above critical thresholds. West-northwesterly winds
with gusts to around 30 mph this afternoon will decrease tonight and
become light tomorrow morning.


.HYDROLOGY...

The recent rain system has resulted in rises on several area
rivers with several sites reaching minor flood stage along the
Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee and Flint rivers. For the
Choctawhatchee River, Geneva and Caryville will reach minor flood,
Newton will reach moderate flood and Bruce is forecast to reach
major flood stage. Additionally the Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson
will reach minor flood stage and the Apalachicola river at
Blountstown is forecast to reach moderate flood stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   68  44  75  57  66 /   0   0   0  60  20
Panama City   64  56  73  58  63 /   0   0   0  70  10
Dothan        64  46  74  51  60 /   0   0  10  60   0
Albany        65  43  74  55  62 /   0   0   0  70  10
Valdosta      67  43  74  59  65 /   0   0   0  50  40
Cross City    68  44  74  61  71 /   0   0   0  20  60
Apalachicola  65  54  73  61  66 /   0   0   0  60  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this
     morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South
     Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this
     morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Weston



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