Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 232323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
723 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

A broken line of showers and a couple thunderstorms will continue
to impact ABY and TLH for the next hour or so, and then VLD
through about 04z. Starting late tonight, a deck of MVFR ceilings
will spread from west to east through the region. MVFR is not
expected to clear terminals until around 18z or later tomorrow



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Cold front stretches from Panama City northward to near Dothan and
further northward to western Georgia. Showers and storms are
accompanying the front as it moves eastward. Decent CAPE, moisture,
and slightly increasing shear should keep the precipitation going as
the entire system moves eastward. The lines of precipitation is
relatively thin so expect brief downpours and sporadic lightning but
overall amount will remain on the lighter side...generally one half
inch and below. Timing of the line into Albany and Tallahassee will
be closer to dusk and in Valdosta this evening. There remains at
least a marginal risk of severe storms ahead of the front with a
slight risk across most of SW Georgia with wind being the main

Once the line of rain and the cold front moves through, winds will
turn northwesterly with clouds hanging around most of the night. Low
will fall to the low 50s across SE Alabama and western Florida
panhandle to upper 50s to around 60 degrees across the Florida Big
Bend counties.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

In the upper levels a closed low will be over GA on Monday. By
Tuesday night ridging will be in place. At the surface a low will
be off the coast of South Carolina on Monday. The wrap around
moisture will linger through Monday afternoon in northeastern
parts of the region. There will be a slight chance for a shower on
Monday morning in far eastern parts of the region. Otherwise POPs
will be near zero. Most if not all of the cloud cover will clear
out by Monday evening. Temps will be cooler with highs in the mid
70s on Monday and lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels a trough will be in place until a ridge builds
in by Friday. At the surface a weak pressure gradient will be in
place. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the 60s.


Winds will increase and become northwesterly this evening as a
cold front passes. 15 to 20 knot winds are likely through tomorrow
evening. A few hours of 20 knot winds are possible tomorrow
afternoon mainly in the offshore waters. Light to moderate winds
are expected for the rest of the week.


Relative humidity levels are not expected to fall below critical
thresholds over the next several days. Thus, Red Flag conditions
are not expected.


River levels are currently steady. There is a good chance for rain
today as a cold front approaches. Rain totals will likely be under
one inch. Otherwise there is only a slight chance for rain late
next week. No flooding concerns.



Tallahassee   56  77  55  84  59 /  40   0   0   0   0
Panama City   58  75  61  78  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        53  75  55  83  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        55  74  55  82  59 /  30  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  75  54  83  59 /  60  10   0   0   0
Cross City    61  76  56  82  59 /  40  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  59  75  60  79  64 /  20   0   0   0   0




NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...McDermott
LONG TERM...McDermott
HYDROLOGY...McDermott is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.