Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240537
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
137 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

MVFR-VFR clouds continue to develop and move across the area.
Mainly VFR through the period with tempo MVFR cigs/vsbys at
DHN/ABY/VLD through mid morning. VFR afterwards. East to east-
southeast winds will rule this period with a few gusts possible
Friday up to 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [842 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 5 pm regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along the
Southeast coast, and a weakening, quasi-stationary front near and
along the GA-AL border. There were still a few showers near this
boundary in the FL Panhandle, but these will dissipate over the
next few hours. No major changes were made to the afternoon
forecast package.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

An upper level low located over the Great Plains will move
northeastward moving over Illinois on Saturday. The associated
cold front near the Southeast with precipitation out ahead of the
frontal boundary. Showers are expected to reach our CWA Saturday
evening/night and will remain mostly to the west of the
Apalachicola-Chattahoochee river line. SPC has a marginal risk
for our western counties for Saturday night due to the combination
of marginal shear and low instability. The line of showers and
isolated storms also show a weakening trend and will likely
dissipate Saturday night/Sunday morning. Highs will be in upper
70s to low 80s and lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

A second shortwave will be moving through the Plains on Sunday,
and will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday afternoon. At
the surface, an associated cold front will move through the Tri-
State region by Tuesday night. Rain chances will increase ahead of
the front starting on Monday. Behind the front, deep layer ridging
will prevail for the remainder of the period. Afternoon highs and
overnight lows will remain about 10 degrees above normal for this
time of year.


.MARINE...

Advisory conditions under easterly flow will overspread the
northeast Gulf starting this evening. Winds and seas will fall
below Advisory levels by late tomorrow afternoon, though
Cautionary conditions will persist through Saturday. By Sunday,
light winds and low seas are expected to prevail through mid-week
next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from possible high dispersion Friday afternoon and a
continuation of dry weather, there are no other fire weather
concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Less than an inch of rain on average is expected across the region
over the next 7 days. Thus, flooding is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   80  57  78  58  80 /   0   0  10  20  20
Panama City   75  63  73  64  74 /   0   0  30  30  20
Dothan        79  58  78  60  79 /   0   0  30  40  30
Albany        79  57  80  60  81 /   0   0  20  20  30
Valdosta      79  56  80  59  81 /   0   0  10  20  20
Cross City    78  55  81  58  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  74  62  73  63  74 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan/Chaney
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan


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