Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 072050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
350 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Extensive cloud cover is dissipating but is expected to redevelop
overnight, keeping minimum temperatures capped in the 40s. With
plentiful low level moisture and light winds overnight, some patchy
fog will be possible, though with heavy cloud cover expected to
prevent radiational cooling, widespread dense fog is not anticipated.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Mean troughing will prevail aloft across the entire CONUS through
the period. At the surface, high pressure will nose into the Tri-
State region as a shortwave moves through the Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys behind the amplified the upper trough. This will have
a couple of consequences locally. The leading edge of the ridge is
already nosing into the region and is acting as a stable, cool
dome. This made it very difficult for low clouds to scatter today.
The same setup will exist tomorrow until a dry front begins to
move into the region, on the leading edge of the reinforcing
ridge, and scour out the low level moisture. So, high temperatures
tomorrow will be very similar to this afternoon across the region.
The strong gradient created by the building ridge will cause winds
to remain elevated on Thursday night, so even though the airmass
will be considerably dry, lows should range from the mid 40s
across the southeast Big Bend to the mid 30s in southeast Alabama.
The core of the upper trough will be at its closest on Friday, and
although we`ll mix a bit better than previous days, we`ll be
mixing into some cooler temperatures aloft. Highs are expected to
be quite cool on Friday, ranging from the mid 50s in the southeast
Big Bend, to the upper 40s in southwest Georgia and southeast
Alabama. Friday night will coldest night with lows ranging from
the upper 20s across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, up
to the upper 30s across the southeast Big Bend. If winds end up
going completely calm, these temps may need to be lowered a bit,
and possibly introduce frost.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Upper level flow will remain mostly zonal through the weekend,
with high pressure at the surface. Highs and lows will gradually
warm each day. Another cold front is forecast to move into the
Southeast early next week, though it is unclear just how much (if
any) rain it will bring to the region.


.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

Dense MVFR-IFR cloud coverage is dissipating at its edges (ECP,
VLD), but remains in place across northern portions of the area(DHN,
ABY, TLH) at this time. Overnight, MVFR cigs may redevelop and hang
in through at least 15Z Thursday morning.



Northerly winds will gradually increase to Cautionary levels by
Thursday afternoon, and Advisory level Thursday night through
Friday night. Winds will then become easterly and remain
borderline Cautionary through the weekend. A few showers may be
possible on Sunday.



Drier air will sweep across the region Friday and Saturday,
bringing RH values down below critical thresholds across the
region. Northerly transport winds are expected to be elevated
through the afternoon hours, with marginally high dispersions
across the region. However, red flag criteria should not be met.



No rain is expected over land through the weekend. The flood wave
from recent rain is moving through the local river systems,
pushing the Shoal into minor flood, and possibly the
Choctawhatchee by tomorrow evening. The Chipola, Ochlockonee, and
Spring Creek are all forecast to crest in action stage.



Tallahassee   47  62  41  52  32 /   0   0  10   0   0
Panama City   50  61  44  52  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        43  57  35  47  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  58  36  49  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      47  61  40  51  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    48  66  46  56  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
Apalachicola  49  62  46  54  40 /   0   0  10   0   0






SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
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