Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 271749
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
149 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...
The main aviation impact will be overnight fog potential. 12Z
model guidance has pointed to a stronger signal for fog,
especially across southeastern AL and southwestern GA, with a
weaker signal across the FL panhandle counties. The fly in the
ointment is high level clouds that are progged to be streaming
across the area overnight which should limit dense fog potential.
Therefore, LIFR conds are expected across ABY/VLD with IFR at
DHN/TLH. AFT 1430Z, a return to VFR at all TAF sites can be
.PREV DISCUSSION [935 AM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The 11 pm regional surface analysis showed a ridge along the
Piedmont, providing light E-NE winds across our forecast area. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed a short wave trough translating
eastward across the upper Midwest and mid South. While there were
some light showers across central AL early this morning, we do not
expect shower development much farther south as the airmass was dry
above 850 mb and the Q-G forcing tails off significantly toward the
Gulf Coast. The upper trough axis will be east of our region later
this afternoon, when a general sinking motion will develop. It
seems like we`ve been saying this most of October, but high
temperatures will once again be above average with highs in the
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
The weak upper trough along the Atlantic seaboard tonight will move
east allowing the ridge centered over the Southern Plains to build
across the Gulf Coast region and southeast CONUS Friday through
Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will drop down through the
Tennessee Valley tonight before stalling and washing out on Friday.
Look for a continuation of dry conditions with above seasonal temps.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows from the upper 50s
to lower 60s inland and lower to mid 60s along the coast.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Deep layer ridging will continue to build across the region at
least through Wednesday. The surface ridge will begin to move east
with the upper ridge flattening on Thursday as a shortwave moves
into the Missouri Valley. The associated cold front is forecast to
trail southwestward into east Texas. With riding in place and no
strong synoptic features, the region will remain dry with above
normal temperatures. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Kept the near shore and offshore segments separated as cautionary
conditions are expected to continue across the offshore waters
into Friday morning. Winds and seas will gradually lower across
our local waters over the weekend.
The area is expected to remain dry over the next several days and
thus there are no flooding concerns.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 59 86 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 63 82 64 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 57 87 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 57 87 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 58 85 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 59 85 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 64 81 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 0