Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 051438
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1038 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY OVER TENNESSEE VISIBLE IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IN TENNESSEE WRAPS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS, DOWN TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI INTO ARKANSAS. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
CONVECTION LIGHTING UP ALONG THE TROUGH THIS MORNING, TRENDING WITH
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ONE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
REACHED OUR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES. PLENTY
OF GULF MOISTURE IS PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO FEED THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH IS ALREADY PRESENT AS
WELL- WITH THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWING MUCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 23 KTS, WHICH IS HIGH FOR OUR AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH
ALL THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE, WE EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH THERE BEING SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO THE TIMING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THESE STORMS APPROACH SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STAY IN THE MID 80S IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA WITH STORMS AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
WARM TO THE LOW 90S IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA, WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [637 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY FILL, WITH A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BERMUDA RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE STILL EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A WET DAY IN TERMS OF HIGH
POP, AS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. OUR POP IS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT
RANGE, BETWEEN THE MOS CONSENSUS AND ECAM VALUES. ON TUESDAY THE
1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND SEA BREEZE FRONTS (AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION) PINNED AT THE COAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY, AND OUR POP IS ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH THE REDUCTION IN CLOUDS AND POPS WILL COME WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TYPE OF LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN USUALLY CORRELATES WELL WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW-CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT TLH
AND VLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BY 12Z SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT DHN AND THEN ECP. EVENTUALLY,
THE STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS.
EXPECT AS LOW AS LIFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RATHER STRONG WIND GUSTS. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR BY
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.


.MARINE...

WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH, THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE AN EASY FORECAST OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR
TODAY AND IT`S A MESOSCALE FEATURE, WHICH ARE CHALLENGING TO
FORECAST. SEVERAL LOCAL AND CONUS-SCALE WRFS BRING A FAIRLY POTENT
GUST FRONT RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR MARINE AREA TODAY. WHILE
THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THEIR TIMING
DIFFERS BY A COUPLE TO SEVERAL HOURS, SO WE USED A MIDDLE-GROUND
SOLUTION. THIS MEANS MARINERS CAN EXPECT AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
WINDS, ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE GUST
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY, MOST OF THE
AMOUNTS WERE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF
RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE LOCAL
RIVERS CONTINUED BELOW THEIR ACTION STAGES, AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  71  91  72  93 /  70  20  60  20  20
PANAMA CITY   87  76  87  76  88 /  80  20  40  20  20
DOTHAN        86  70  89  71  93 /  80  40  50  20  20
ALBANY        84  70  90  72  93 /  80  30  50  20  20
VALDOSTA      91  70  91  71  94 /  70  20  60  20  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  92  72  93 /  50  20  50  20  30
APALACHICOLA  86  74  89  75  90 /  70  20  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER


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