Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270022
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
822 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible until around
midnight mainly along and west of a line from near Albany to
Apalachicola. lows will be in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Thursday]...

Some of our local hi-res guidance suggests that IFR visibilities
may be possible around daybreak just northwest of the DHN and
ABY terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with light
or calm winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [327 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement that the mid level
ridge off the Florida East Coast will build westward over the next
couple of days, resulting in a significant decrease in rain chances
through the period. With ridging building over the region and lower
afternoon rain chances, expect afternoon highs to be on the
increase. Inland areas should easily reach the upper 90s with a few
spots getting to 100 by Thursday. Heat indices should stay just
under advisory criteria with max heat indices both Wednesday and
Thursday in the 105 to 107 degree range.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The ridging over North Florida will begin to weaken and shift
eastward back into the Atlantic by Saturday in response to a weak
trough moving through the Ohio River Valley. This will in turn allow
for gradually increasing rain chances through the weekend and
slightly cooler temperatures. By the end of the period, the GFS (and
to a lesser extent in the Euro) shows a weak frontal boundary moving
into our far northern counties on Tuesday. Though no noticeable
change in airmass would be expected with this boundary, should it
make it, it would help get the region back to a more active
weather pattern.


.MARINE...
Moderate Winds and seas will gradually decrease back to typical
low summertime levels by Wednesday as high pressure builds across
Northern Florida with winds less than 10 knots and seas 2 feet or
less.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Aside from high dispersion values across inland portions of the Tri-
state region on Wednesday, there are no other fire weather concerns
for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...
With a drier pattern expected for the next few days, there are no
flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  96  75  97  75 /  10  20   0  20   0
Panama City   79  91  79  90  80 /  20  10   0  20  10
Dothan        75  94  73  95  74 /  30  30   0  10  10
Albany        74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
Valdosta      74  97  73  97  74 /  10  20  10  10   0
Cross City    74  96  74  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  76  91  78  90  79 /  10  10   0  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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