Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 261927
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
327 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure and mid-level quasi-zonal flow remain in place
across the region this afternoon. This, along with a dry airmass in
place will yield continued clear and quiet weather through the end
of the period. Expect mid-level ridging to begin increasing from
the west by the end of the period. Overnight lows will drop into
the upper 50s and lower 60s region wide.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

High pressure will dominate over the weekend with an upper level
ridge strengthening across the CWA as the center of the ridge
slides across the area on Sunday. PW values will be around 1 inch
on Saturday, but moisture will increase for Sunday with PW values
increasing to 1.25 inches - more normal for this time of year. The
forecast is dry through the weekend, however with increasing
moisture for Sunday, do expected increase cloud coverage.

Highs will reach into the lower 90s with 80s along the coast with
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow morning increasing to
the upper 60s to lower 70s with the increasing cloud coverage for
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

A cold front will be situated across the southeast on Monday with
the front stalling across the northern portion of the CWA or just
north of the CWA. This combined with a few weak upper level
disturbances will allow for the chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day throughout the week. There is enough
instability and deep layer shear at the beginning of the week that
a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. With Monday
being a holiday, it is a good reminder for anyone with outdoor
plans to have a way to keep updated on the weather.


&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions through the period at all terminals with south to
southwesterly winds generally below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

South to southwest winds will persist through much of the weekend.
Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots for Monday with an
approaching front, however the boundary never pushes through the
area. After a dry weekend, isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. An
afternoon sea breeze will develop during the heat of the day each
afternoon in Florida, which will cause a temporary increase in south
to southwest winds near the coast and potentially have a brief
impact on any Florida fires during the mid to late afternoon
hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting
Monday and continuing through next week. Widespread rainfall
amounts will be limited though, thus there are no flooding
concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   59  91  68  91  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   62  81  75  82  75 /   0   0  10   0  10
Dothan        63  89  71  89  73 /   0   0  10   0  20
Albany        62  90  71  90  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      60  91  67  91  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    60  88  67  89  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  67  85  73  86  74 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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