Area Forecast Discussion
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911
FXUS62 KTAE 251916
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
316 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A weak shortwave aloft situated over Georgia this afternoon will
slowly drift eastward tonight and remain an influence to the CWA
through the near term period. Convection this afternoon will
continue tracking south and east and this wave will help convection
continue into this evening across the inland areas. Given this, have
kept 30-40% PoPs into the first half of tonight. Expect development
to focus near the coast and the marine area for the second half of
the night. Lows will remain warm overnight with mid 70s inland and
upper 70s along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The weak upper level pattern will continue for the next several
days. With plenty of moisture and the sea breeze for forcing,
expect widespread coverage of thunderstorms. PoPs will be 30-60%
Wednesday with the highest chances over SW GA. Thursday PoPs will
be slightly lower, 30-50% and will be concentrated along the I-10
corridor. Temps will be seasonal with highs in the low 90s and
lows in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

A trough over the east coast will translate through during the
long term period. An associated cold front will push through over
the weekend, however there are some differences in the models at
this time. The GFS has drier air arriving behind the front and the
EURO keeps moisture around into early next week. Kept PoPs in the
30 to 50% range. Highs will be in the upper 80s with lows in the
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to sink south and east
across the TAF sites through this evening with the effects earliest
this afternoon at DHN and ABY with a later start at VLD, ECP and
TLH. MVFR fog will be possible briefly in the morning, particularly
at ABY and VLD.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and seas will prevail for the next several
days. As the pressure gradient tightens towards the weekend, seas
will increase to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the
next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While all rivers are below flood stage, some thunderstorms may
produce heavy rain that leads to localized flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  92  74  92  75 /  30  50  30  40  20
Panama City   77  90  78  90  79 /  30  40  20  40  20
Dothan        73  93  74  93  75 /  30  40  20  30  20
Albany        73  92  74  92  75 /  30  50  20  30  20
Valdosta      73  90  73  90  74 /  40  60  30  40  20
Cross City    74  92  74  90  75 /  20  30  20  40  20
Apalachicola  76  90  77  89  78 /  20  40  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston



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