Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231020
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...

Patchy fog this morning will quickly dissipate after sunrise
leaving behind VFR conds. Upper low across SW GA will slowly move
westward with this area plus the eastern FL panhandle in a
favored area for convection this afternoon including TLH and VLD.
Further westward, only isolated coverage is expected around the
other sites. Convection moves offshore overnight with VFR conds at
the terminals. Winds will remain from the ENE through the period,
gusty in and around storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [311 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Upper low, currently positioned across southern GA, will drift
slowly westward today. This will aid in increasing mid level
moisture on the east side of this feature as well as increasing
large scale lift. Low level flow will be easterly which will favor
convergence along the east coast seabreeze today and will work
westward into our area this afternoon. Decent instability, along
with cooler mid level temperatures and steep low/mid level lapse
rates will favor some strong wind gusts underneath stronger
convection. Most favored area is from Tallahassee to Valdosta and
points eastward in the afternoon hours. More isolated areas of
convection is expected north and west of this area. Highs will be in
the mid/upper 80s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Hurricane Maria will continue to track northward to the east of
an elongated upper low/trough over the southeastern CONUS, and
will remain well offshore of the Atlantic Coast through this
period. The upper low will drift westward over our area tonight,
and become nearly stationary over MS/AL from Sunday through
Monday. Combined with PWAT values above 1.5" and SBCAPE up to
1000-1500 J/kg during peak heating times, this will lead to
continued chances of showers and thunderstorms across the FL
Panhandle and SE Alabama during this time. Highest chances will be
near the Gulf Coast and offshore, where deep layer moisture will
be highest (PWAT values around 1.8"-2.0"). Drier air will filter
into SW Georgia and the inland FL Big Bend under light
northeasterly flow, especially on Monday, so generally dry
conditions are anticipated across these areas. Slightly above
average temperatures will prevail, with highs ranging from the mid
80s to near 90 across our area.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The semi-cutoff upper low mentioned in the short term discussion
will drift back eastward over our area on Tuesday before slowly
moving southeastward over the FL Peninsula during mid-late week.
Despite some forcing from this feature, increasingly dry air will
continue to filter into our area under northerly flow. From
Friday through Saturday, a pattern change will begin to develop as
a stronger upper level trough moves into the eastern CONUS. A cold
front is expected to move across our area as well, although there
is some disagreement among forecast models regarding the
speed/position of the front during this time. The GFS is faster
with the front and pushes it through our area by Friday night,
while the ECMWF is slower and maintains more moisture across our
area on Saturday. Due to this uncertainty, a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms will be maintained across our area on both
Friday and Saturday.

Above average temperatures will prevail throughout this period, as
highs in the lower 90s are likely across inland areas with upper
80s along the Gulf Coast. Lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower
70s are expected, although lower-mid 60s cannot be ruled out by
the weekend as the front moves through our area.


.MARINE...

Easterly winds around 10-15 knots will prevail during the weekend,
with light and variable winds early next week. Seas around 2-3
feet are anticipated through this weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible this weekend,
mainly across the FL Panhandle. However, any heavy rain will be
brief/isolated and flooding is not expected. Drier conditions will
move into our area during next week.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   87  70  88  69  90 /  50  30  20  20  10
Panama City   86  72  85  72  86 /  30  30  40  30  30
Dothan        88  68  88  67  89 /  20  10  20  20  20
Albany        89  68  89  67  90 /  20  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      86  67  88  66  89 /  50  10  20  10  10
Cross City    87  69  89  68  90 /  50  20  20  10  10
Apalachicola  86  73  85  73  86 /  40  50  40  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Lahr


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