Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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125
FNUS22 KWNS 271827
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

Introduced an elevated area in portions of eastern Montana and far
western North Dakota for this update.  Wind fields will increase to
20-25 mph (with higher gusts) within a dry, post-frontal regime in
the region during the afternoon, with minimum RH values (indicated
on model point forecast soundings) falling to around 22-25% in
several areas.  Guidance also suggests fuels dry enough for fire
spread.  The main uncertainty with elevated fire weather conditions
is areas of light showers that may wet fuels locally during the
D1/Saturday period.  This precipitation isn`t expected to be
widespread and/or wetting, however, necessitating the introduction
of elevated highlights for this update.

..Cook.. 05/27/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0254 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

...Synopsis...
A deep-layer cyclone is expected to move slowly eastward into the
northern Great Lakes region on Sunday, as a separate surface low
over the Midwest moves northeastward and eventually becomes absorbed
into the larger circulation. Meanwhile, an upper ridge is expected
to remain in place across much of the West. Cooler and less windy
conditions are expected across portions of the Southwest and
southern High Plains in the wake of a cold front, as a surface ridge
becomes established across the area.

...Portions of the Northern High Plains...
Relatively dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of
the northern High Plains on Sunday within the post-frontal regime,
as the surface pressure gradient tightens between the surface ridge
to the west and low pressure system to the east. Sustained winds of
20-30 mph with higher gusts will be possible. Since temperatures
will not be particularly warm, there is some uncertainty regarding
minimum RH values and no areas will be delineated at this time.
However, locally elevated conditions will be possible in areas where
dry fuels are available and afternoon temperatures warm into the 70s
F.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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