Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FNUS22 KWNS 041649
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2016

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL AZ...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COHEN.. 05/04/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0414 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE OVER BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS ON
D2/THU...WITH UPPER RIDGING PROMINENT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. ONLY A
SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS MUCH OF AZ INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THU EVENING. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...A MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST
COAST WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF SRN GA/NRN FL THU AFTERNOON.

...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SRN/CNTRL AZ...AND FAR
SWRN NM...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE ON D2/THU
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL AZ. STRONG/GUSTY SLY TO SWLY WINDS OF
20-30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MAXIMIZED AND ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT ARE
TRANSPORTED TO THE SFC. HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS THIS REGION...RH
VALUES SHOULD EASILY PLUMMET BELOW 15 PERCENT...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7
PERCENT LOCALLY. LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FINE
FUELS SHOULD BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL AZ.
SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL DELINEATION...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...A
LARGER PORTION OF AZ...AND FAR SWRN NM. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
ELEVATED DELINEATION IS CONSTRAINED BY GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS.
AN EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA FURTHER E INTO THE REMAINDER OF
SERN AZ AND FAR SWRN NM MAY BE NEEDED IN A LATER UPDATE IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

...PORTIONS OF SRN GA INTO NRN FL...
BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE ADVANCED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE D2/THU PERIOD...GUSTY WLY/NWLY WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA/NRN FL THU AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RH VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS THIS
REGION AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WHILE LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FINE FUELS SHOULD BE RECEPTIVE
TO FIRE STARTS FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THAT DID NOT RECEIVE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL YESTERDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ON D1/WED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED AN ELEVATED AREA AT
THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.