Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 221745

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


...West Texas into the Southern/Central High Plains...
Dangerous fire-weather conditions are still expected across the
region Thursday afternoon with an extremely critical fire-weather
threat (characterized by sustained winds from 35 to 45 mph amidst
single-digit RH values) extending from the TX Trans-Pecos northward
across eastern NM and into southeastern CO. Based on anticipated
dryline position, the extremely critical delineation was extended a
bit more eastward to include more of eastern NM. A critical fire
weather threat surrounds the extremely critical area, extending into
western portions of the TX Panhandle and through the remainder of
eastern CO.

...East of the dryline into the Southern/Central Plains...
As mentioned in the previous discussion, the returning low-level
moisture will likely mix-out east of the dryline, with afternoon RH
values generally in the mid 20s. Additionally, a tight surface
pressure gradient and strong low/mid-level flow will support gusty
southeast winds (i.e. sustained speeds from 25 to 35 mph with gusts
over 40 mph). These conditions will support an elevated to locally
critical fire weather threat in areas where fuels are dry and/or
green-up has yet occur.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate
on the dryline with the deeply mixed boundary-layer and fast storm
motions resulting in the potential for lightning occurrence with
little to no precipitation at the surface, particularly with initial
development. As a result, an isolated dry thunderstorm area was
introduced from the Permian Basin northward into southeast
CO/southwest KS.

..Mosier.. 03/22/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0313 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

A strong upper trough is expected to move eastward from the
Southwest at the beginning of the period into the Plains region by
Friday morning. As this trough moves eastward, an associated surface
low will deepen across portions of the central High Plains. A
substantial fire weather risk is expected to evolve as very windy
and dry conditions develop behind a dryline across portions of West
Texas into the High Plains.

...West Texas into the Southern/Central High Plains...
Very strong south-southwesterly flow is expected to develop on
Thursday afternoon behind the dryline, aided by an increasing
pressure gradient and increasing deep-layer flow associated with the
upper trough. Sustained winds of 25-35 MPH will be common from
portions of eastern CO southward through portions of New Mexico into
West Texas. Meanwhile, strong heating of a very dry airmass will
result in minimum RH values from 6-15 percent, which in combination
with the strong winds will result in a critical fire weather threat.
An extremely critical area has been added over portions of eastern
NM into the Trans-Pecos region of West TX, where the greatest
confidence exists in the concurrence of sustained winds in excess of
30 MPH and minimum RH values below 10%. Some adjustments to the
eastern extent of the critical area are possible as forecasts of the
dryline position become more refined.

...East of the dryline across portions of the Central/Southern
Moisture quality ahead of the dryline is expected to be rather poor,
and deep mixing combined with strong southerly flow may result in
elevated/locally critical conditions further east into portions of
the central/southern Plains. Additionally, fast-moving high-based
thunderstorms that develop near the dryline may produce little in
the way of measurable rainfall, resulting in a potential for new
ignitions within a regime of at least elevated wind/RH conditions.
Uncertainty regarding the dryline position and evolution of
convection along and ahead of the dryline preclude any delineation
of dry-thunderstorm threats at this time.

...Please see for graphic product...

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