Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS22 KWNS 241659
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
...Portions of the southern High Plains...
Scenario outlined in the previous discussion (below) remains valid
with a dry airmass promoting minimum RH values in the teens across
much of the region and no changes were needed to the ongoing
critical area. However, some changes were made to the elevated area
based on recent guidance. Northern portion of elevated area was
trimmed out of southwest KS where temperatures are now expected to
remain below 50 degrees. Southern area was expanded to include more
of southeast NM and far west TX where southwesterly winds near 15
mph are anticipated amidst RH values in the low teens to single
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/
With a shearing vorticity maximum advancing eastward across the
lower Great Lakes towards New England, a corridor of strong westerly
mid-level flow will organize from southern/central California
eastward to the southeast US. The surface response will feature a
deep cyclone lifting northeast into western Quebec, with a trailing
cold front extending southward to the Gulf of Mexico. In its wake,
high pressure will continue to build over the Plains states.
...Portions of the southern high Plains...
As the aforementioned high shifts east across the southern/central
Plains, westerly mid-level flow over the Rockies will yield lee
troughing over the high Plains during the day. In response, surface
winds will veer to the southwest and increase to around 20-25 mph,
with higher gusts, over portions of eastern New Mexico. Despite
relatively cool temperatures in the 50s, a dry air mass will
encourage minimum RH values around 10-15 percent, likely promoting a
critical fire-weather threat. Surrounding this critical area,
elevated/locally critical fire-weather concerns are expected from
southeastern New Mexico northeastward to southwestern Kansas. Across
these areas, southwesterly winds around 15-20 mph and RH values
below 20 percent will combine with dry fuels to boost fire-weather
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...