Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 290000
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
800 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will track north off the coast
tonight through Friday. Low pressure will consolidate over the
Maritimes and move away Friday night followed by high pressure
Saturday through Monday. Another low pressure will approach the
area from the south on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 pm update...
Moderate to heavy rain continues to stream north along quasi-
stationary boundary over the gulf. Expect heavy downpours will
continue over the next few hours before diminishing slightly.
The next surge is expected to move in after 12z as the low
deepens just to the south of the GOM. Only minor chgs to temps
and dwpts but have issued dense fog advisory over northwest
areas with warm air over the snowpack leading to vsbys dropping
ocnly below 1/4 mile. As winds begin to increase after 07z
expect that visibilities will improve.

Prev discussion blo...
A 500mb trof is rounding the base over southeastern United
States this evening and will lift north along the Atlantic
Seaboard tonight into tomorrow AM. Surface low pressure will
develop under the trof and lift northward which will be the next
slug of moderate to heavy rainfall. Before that happens the
moisture conveyor belt will keep the light to moderate rain
going this evening with pockets of heavy downpours especially
Downeast. Mainly shower activity across the North Woods and that
might shift east over the next few hours into northeast
Aroostook County. Expecting another 0.5-1.5 inches of rain over
much of the area tonight before the next big slug of moisture
arrives with a rapidly deepening low tomorrow. Patchy to areas
of fog expected tonight especially in places that have snowpack.


As the shortwave lifting north tilts negative and upper level
divergence aloft increases surface convergence expect the
surface low to deepen rather quickly. At the same time as the
low tracks over the Gulf of Maine into New Brunswick expect
temperatures to fall aloft and then to the surface resulting in
rain changing to snow across the North Woods by daybreak. Rain
will change to snow and march eastward to the rest of northern
Maine and into portions of the Central Highlands. Expecting the
snow to last into tomorrow evening. Generally expect 1-3 inches
of wet snow with isolated higher amounts in higher terrain.
Accumulations will likely be on colder surfaces and given this
is falling during the day and not very heavy expecting most
roadways to remain wet. N-NW winds will increase tomorrow
generally 10-15mph with gusts 25-35mph.

Will continue the flood watch through tomorrow evening for all
of Downeast, Central Highlands up to the Baxter region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level longwave trough will gradually shift out of our
area Friday night into early Saturday morning. Precip wrapping
around the backside of the low will continue across most of the
north down through the eastern half of the forecast area into
Washington county. With northeasterly cold air advection,
temperatures will fall into the upper 20s across the north, and
precip will be mostly snow, with a mix of rain down into
Washington county. As the surface low continues to track further
east into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday morning, precip rates
will decrease and snow will exit the area through the late
morning hours.

High pressure will begin to build into the area Saturday night
through Sunday, keeping the region drier. Skies will begin to
clear Saturday night, especially across the north, and with
decreasing winds, temperatures could fall into the upper teens
in the north. Cloud cover may hang on longer Downeast due to a
disturbance well to the south of the area, keeping lows in the
mid 20s. Highs on Sunday with partly to mostly clear skies will
lift into the low to mid 40s Downeast and into the mid to upper
30s in the north. Though a light northeast wind will continue to
advect cold air, the higher solar angle this time of the year
will be enough to combat this cooler air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will linger through the day on Monday, before the
next low pressure system approaches from the southwest. For this
next storm, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty for how
far north the low will track, which will depend on how strong
the ridge of high pressure across the St. John Valley will be.
12z deterministic guidance all came in with solutions which
tracked the low along the coast of Maine, bringing precip across
the entire forecast area. The exception is the 12z run of the
ECMWF, which brings the low center north of the state, but still
brings precip through the entire region. Ensemble plots have
given a range of solutions from crossing the Downeast region to
tracking well south of the Gulf of Maine. The latter ensemble
solution will result in no precipitation in our forecast area as
the ridge of high pressure dominates. Should the low track
closer to our coast however, a swath of snow may sweep across
the region, with the potential for a deformation zone to set up
just northwest of the low center and bring higher snowfall rates
to a narrow region. The newest solution from the ECMWF may bring
precip to the entire region, but more in the way of rain as the
warm sector crosses the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR expected over Aroostook terminals thru
06z-07z. Expect conditions improve in both vsby and cigs as
winds increase from the northwest after this time. Gradual
improvement expected from late morning to early afternoon but
conditions will still remain IFR next 24 hours.

Downeast terminals will vary between MVFR/IFR as locally heavy
rain moves through at time overnight. IFR will set in between
12-14z at BGR and BHB and remain there as locally heavy rain
moves in after this time. LLWS at BHB after 19z at FL020 with
34045kt.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night...IFR at all terminals in rain becoming snow,
improving to MVFR in the north and VFR Downeast late. NW winds
15 to 20 kts gusting 30 to 35 kts.

Saturday...MVFR becoming VFR north. VFR south. NW winds 15 to 20
kts gusting 25 to 30 kts.

Saturday night-Monday night...VFR. Light N to NW winds.

Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible, especially at Downeast
terminals. Light NE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Expect winds to remain below 20kts through this
evening but winds shifting N will rapidly become SCA conditions
tomorrow. SCA will become N-NW Gales tomorrow late day. Seas
building 4-7ft tonight into tomorrow. Gale Warning starts at 5pm
on Friday.

SHORT TERM: A gale warning remains in place into Saturday
afternoon for gusts up to 35 to 40 kts and seas 6 to 9 ft.
Conditions will rapidly improve below SCA levels into the day on
Sunday and remain as such through the early part of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rains overnight will accelerate snowmelt over the area.
The snowpack is rapidly ripening, heavy rainfall and very
saturated soils, standing water could be an issue before water
enters the main stem rivers. In the north, main stem rivers will
mostly be able to absorb the additional input. However, the
Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag River Basins are at risk for
reaching minor flood level late this week into the weekend. The
Penobscot will be slightly less impacted, but some points on
the lower reaches could reach action stage. In the far north,
the additional water input may be enough to finally move the ice
on the St. John river. A Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of the Central Highlands (including Baxter & Moosehead
Region) into interior Downeast through the day Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for MEZ001>006-010.
     Flood Watch through Friday evening for MEZ004>006-010-011-
     015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Buster/Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Buster/Sinko/AStrauser
Hydrology...


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