Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 180510

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1110 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Issued at 212 PM CST SUN DEC 17 2017

Currently there is split upper level flow over the US with zonal
flow along the US/Canadian border and a cut off low and broad
ridging over the southeast US. This pattern will continue through
the first portion of the week keeping the area dry with a westerly
wind and temperatures consistently around the mid 50s. The pattern
starts to shift on Wednesday as the cut off low opens up and moves
south of our region as a shortwave trough.  The zonal flow along the
northern US also starts to make a more meridional shift as a deep
shortwave trough moves into the NW US.  This shortwave trough will
create some active weather Thursday and be the start of a very cold
pattern that will set up on the backside of this trough.

The incoming shortwave trough will help initiate cyclogenesis over
the central plains and enforce a strong shot of colder air on the
backside.  The models had been in agreement with a closed surface
low forming east of our region but the most recent solutions have
this cyclogenesis occur right over our CWA keeping most of the
moisture and isentropic accent more over Iowa.  GFS and ECMWF are
indicated there may be enough moisture in place to develop some rain
showers along the cold front Thursday night into Friday morning. The
colder air may help to initiate a rain to snow transition Friday
over northern Missouri but the uncertainty of the low development
and movement will keep any PoPs low and snow chances limited. A
strong blocking ridge will build into the eastern Pacific allowing
very cold arctic air to start to advect south on the backside of
this cold front. There will be about a 20 degree drop in high
temperatures Thursday to Friday with highs barely getting above
freezing Friday afternoon. This cooling trend will continue as
highs progressively get cooler by a 3-4 degrees a day through the
end of the forecast period and into the Christmas timeframe. The
big question will be if a system can move into this colder airmass
and produce winter precipitation. Currently the GFS and ECMWF
have a shortwave trough exit the southern Rockies Christmas eve
that will help enhance an area of mid level frontogenesis over
Northern Missouri. Currently both GFS and ECMWF produce a band of
QPF and snowfall north of I-70. The Canadian also indicates this
frontogenesis but does it south of I-70. With this uncertainty in
placement of precipitation the PoPs have been kept lower, but this
is definitely a system to watch as it will be highly visible
being Christmas eve and would give the area a white Christmas.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CST SUN DEC 17 2017

Biggest challenge for aviation interests during the overnight
period into Monday morning will be the low-level stratus and fog
impacting the region. Although each terminal is currently
reporting the entire spectrum of categories, all of the terminals
are expected to drop to at least IFR at some point between now and
mid-morning as the LL stratus and fog persists. As drier air moves
in behind the exiting moisture, look for VFR conditions to take
over by midday Monday through the remainder of the TAF period.




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