Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 310907
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
407 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Today - Wednesday:

A weak h7 shortwave and isentropic ascent on the 305K surface have
generated a good deal of mid clouds over the CWA as well as light
showers over the far eastern and southern counties. These showers
should dissipate/exit the eastern CWA by mid morning.

Otherwise, upstream convection over NE and northern KS will continue
to weaken as its outflow boundary surges well east of the
convection. This activity was part of a much larger area of
convection which formed along the Northern/Central Plains cold
front. Will need to monitor the eventual resting place of this
boundary as it could be a focus for convective redevelopment during
the afternoon. The cold front will also be a likely focus for new
storms this afternoon. This feature will be slow to move into the
CWA as it awaits the arrival of a fairly strong upper trough
currently rotating southeast into the Northern High Plains.

The airmass ahead of both boundaries is expected to become
moderately unstable by afternoon with GFS generated surface based
CAPEs exceeding 2500 J/kg. The severe potential will once again be
quite limited by weak 0-6km shear in the 15-20kt range. However, an
isolated storm or two could briefly reach severe thresholds and drop
marginally severe hail or localized damaging downburst type winds.
In addition, locally very heavy rains will be possible as progged
precipitable water values exceed 1.5 inches which climatologically
is over the 90th percentile. Have adjusted highest PoPs to more
closely mimic the location of the two above boundaries with lower
end chances PoPs over the eastern CWA until early evening when the
western MO convection arrives.

Convection will end from northwest to southeast but be rather slow
in doing so owing to the slow eastward progression of the cold
front. So, will hang onto chance PoPs on Wednesday over the
southeast 1/2.

Wednesday night - Monday:

Drier more stable high pressure will overspread the region Wednesday
night and Thursday resulting in very pleasant conditions with
seasonal temperatures.

Friday night and Saturday will see a deepening shortwave trough drop
southeast through the Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. This will
likely send another cold front through the region. While moisture
looks to be limited the strengthening upper level dynamics and low-
level convergence could yield some spotty convection along the
front.

Slightly cooler air will filter across the CWA on Sunday into Monday
as high pressure again builds in.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

A little bit of a challenging fcst going forward early this morning
as fcst models continue to hint at reduced visibilities by early
morning. Main caveat seen right now is upstream cloud cover
associated with Central Plains convection that will continue sliding
east during the early morning hrs. Due to this uncertainty...have
elected to offer MVFR restrictions at the three KC terminals...while
leaving out any mention out of STJ as model progs show the best
potential for fog across southeastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri. Beyond this...main shwr/storm activity expected to move
through the area during the mid-afternoon hrs with restrictions
down the MVFR and potentially IFR likely. Activity should come to an
end after the 03z time frame or so with improvements likely through
the conclusion of the fcst period.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...32



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