Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 240457 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1157 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Tonight and tomorrow. Vertical mixing and the pressure gradient will
relax some overnight leading to weaker winds.  It will still be
breezy though, with latest guidance indicating gust potential of 20-
25 mph. The mixing will help keep overnight lows relatively mild.
The latest guidance suggests lows in the 30s across our west, lower
40s to the east.  Otherwise for Tuesday, concerns revolve around an
elevated range fire risk and the wind.  There was little change to
the inherited forecast for Tuesday.  Deep low pressure over the Great
Lakes and strong high pressure to the west will create a packed
gradient across the High Plains.  This combined with good momentum
transfer will allow gusts to climb above 25-35 mph by early
afternoon.  The strongest corridor of winds is anticipated east of
Highway 83 and especially across north central Nebraska.  Otherwise
post frontal cold air advection will continue to cool temperatures.
High`s Tuesday appear to lower some 5 degrees, which would suggest
readings in the mid to upper 50s.  The cooler temperatures will play
a big role in keeping relative humidity above RFW critical
thresholds.  At this point the lowest humidity is forecast west of
highway 61 where readings near 20% are forecast.  So all in all,
there will be an elevated large range fire risk, but fire weather
headlines are not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The model guidance is beginning to respond to the 20C h850mb
temperatures the models have been advertising Wednesday. The
temperature forecast uses a model blend plus guidance plus bias
correction for highs generally in the upper 70s. A check on the
high cirrus potential suggests generally clear skies Wednesday.

Confidence continues to increase for the winter`s first arrival of
arctic air Thursday which would last through Friday. The GFS
precipitable water product shows water decreasing to around 0.15
inches which is the hallmark of a dry airmass with orgins far north
of the CONUS. A blend of model data plus guidance plus bias
correction suggests highs Thursday in the 40s and 50s. Highs in the
40s are predicted Friday. The NAM temperature fields indicate steady
or falling temperatures Thursday.

Blended guidance plus bias correction produced 25 to 35 mph winds
Thursday which decrease to 15 to 20 mph Friday.

The forecast Wednesday and beyond is dry with little or no rain or
snow chance. There is no moisture return as a series of strong high
pressure systems have taken a significant toll on available moisture.

A warming trend develops Saturday and Sunday but there is a chance
another cold high pressure system will drop down from Canada Monday.
The ECM is much slower than the GFS with the timing of the frontal
passage saving it for later next week. The forecast blends these two
solutions. Forecast confidence is good for the warm up this weekend
but poor on the temperature forecast next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Strong northwest winds will continue to be the main aviation
concern tonight and tomorrow. Winds will slow some tonight and
with stronger winds at 2k ft above the surface will see low level
wind shear continue at both KVTN and KLBF. Strong gusty northwest
winds will continue through the day on Tuesday with mostly sunny
skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The potential for wildfire development is expected
to remain elevated Tuesday and Wednesday. The wind forecast,
relative humidity forecast and perhaps the fuel status are under
review. Strong winds are expected Tuesday but relative humidity is
only expected fall to around 20 percent. On Wednesday, humidity
falls to near 15 percent but there is uncertainty as to whether or
not winds will reach the 25 mph threshold. The area of concern both
days is generally along and west of highway 61. There are also
uncertainties regarding 1 hour fuel status. There is still
significant green up in some areas.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power
FIRE WEATHER...CDC


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