Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 232318 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
518 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A midlevel disturbance across ern WY/wrn SD will move through
wrn/ncntl Neb today. The RAP, HRRR, NAM-nest and ECM suggest
scattered flurries. Consensus model data was the basis for the snow
flurry forecast which places the flurries across northern Neb.
The NAM-nest, the most aggressive model, would drive the flurry
activity south to Interstate 80.

A blend of the HRRR and RAP models plus bias correction produces
highs in the lower to upper 30s. This is about 3 to 5 degrees cooler
than the straight guidance blend. Snow cover and cloud cover are the
driving forces behind the temperature mark down. Also, the h850mb
temperature advection is neutral today and tonight.

Clearing skies should develop tonight with a continuation of
generally light northwest winds. A blend of bias corrected guidance
produces lows mostly in the teens, near 10F in the Platte valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Generally quiet weather is anticipated through midweek as an upper
ridge progresses from the Rockies to the Plains. Temperatures
moderate into the lower 40s Wednesday with the help of downslope
flow and sunny skies. The heart of the ridge arrives Thursday with
H85 temps pushing 12C, which should translate to highs in the 50s
for parts of the area. Continued the trend of keeping temps below
guidance due to snow cover. A lead shortwave drags a cold front
through the region on Friday, and a follow-up shortwave crosses the
Plains on Sunday. Still expecting dry passages as the systems are
moisture starved and forcing is short-lived. With a real lack of
Arctic air upstream, the cooldown will only result in highs in the
mid/upper 30s and lows in the mid/upper 10s, which is right around
climo norms. The only concern during this period is the potential
for large snow melt through Thursday and refreezing each night as
lows drop into the teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 517 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Visual flight rules with northwest winds less than 10kts




LONG TERM...Snively
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