Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 291144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
644 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

H5 analysis tonight had a fairly zonal pattern across the lower
48 with a fairly active northern stream. Strong shortwaves were
noted across southern Alberta, as well as northern Minnesota.
Embedded, weaker shortwaves were noted over Wyoming, as well as
southern Idaho and western Nebraska. Current water vapor imagery
had a shortwave over northwestern Kansas with a secondary
shortwave over western South Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms
were fairly abundant across northern Kansas and far southern
Nebraska overnight, as a nice low level jet had nosed its way into
north central Kansas. Further north, scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms had developed across the western Sandhills
and portions of southwestern Nebraska. As of 3 AM CDT the bulk of
this activity was west of a line from North Platte to Thedford.
Skies were mostly cloudy with temperatures generally in the 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Today and Tonight: Over the next 24 hours,
precipitation chances will be the main forecast concern. For today:
Ongoing convection across the sandhills and southwestern Nebraska
should clear most of the forecast area by 7 AM CDT. There will be a
lull in convective activity this morning with increasing chances in
the east and southern forecast area this afternoon. Looking at the
latest NAM12 soln, as well as the WARW soln, a frontal boundary will
become oriented from far southwestern Nebraska into northeastern
portions of the forecast area this afternoon. The shortwave over
western South Dakota/nern Wyoming will approach the area by mid
afternoon. Looking at the NAM12, the capping inversion will weaken
significantly after 21z with locations INVOF and east of the front
seeing an increased threat for thunderstorm development. By mid
afternoon, the atmosphere will be well mixed with H85-H70 lapse
rates of 8-9C. With deep layer shear on the order of 40 to 45 KTS
this afternoon, supercell thunderstorms look favorable along and
east of the front. With the steep mid level lapse rates and shear
profile, large hail looks like a decent threat later this afternoon.
This threat will quickly move east of the forecast area by mid
evening as the front becomes oriented across sern Nebraska by mid
evening. Overnight tonight, the shortwave, currently over srn
Alberta, will dive south into the central rockies, tracking onto the
high plains overnight. The latest mid range solutions including the
GFS and NAM12, along with some support from the 4 KM NAM soln,
develop precipitation late tonight in the panhandle and western
areas. With good model agreement noted, decided to introduce pops in
the west for late tonight into early Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Flow turns northwest aloft Friday through Saturday, with drier air
filtering into the area behind Thursday`s cold front. Expect a
pleasantly warm first half of the weekend with highs in the 80s
Saturday and light winds. The next shortwave will dive southeast
across the area Sunday. This will strengthen a leeward trough
Saturday night with a south to southeast wind developing. This
will rapidly draw warm moist air back north into the area Sunday,
resulting in possible strong storms and an MCS late Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night.

Upper level ridging begins to expand north and east across the
area the first of next week. Turning very warm with highs climbing
from mid 80s Monday to the upper 80s and 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday. For now it looks mainly dry, but increasing amounts of
low level moisture beneath the ridging will result in surface
based instability that could lead to an isolated afternoon


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Over the next 24 hours, expect clear to partly cloudy skies with
high cloudiness ranging from 15000 to 25000 FT AGL. There is a
small threat for thunderstorms this afternoon at the KVTN terminal
and overnight tonight at the KLBF terminal. Coverage will be
isolated, so will not mention thunder in the 12z TAF issuance.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.