Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 280855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
355 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

At 08z...Broken high cloudiness extended across the Northern and
Central High Plains. Mild temperatures early this morning with
most readings across western Nebraska in the upper 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Today...An anomalously strong upper ridge axis will extend north
from the Southern High Plains into the Central and Northern High
Plains. During peak heating today, temperatures at 850 mb to range
from 20c at O`Neill to 23c at Imperial which is from 12c to 14c
above normal. Although Sky cover will be scattered to at times
broken in cirrus clouds, highs in the lower 80s, with mid 80s
forecast from the southeast panhandle into southwest Nebraska. With
afternoon dewpoints from 35 to around 40 degrees, minimum relative
humidities will fall below 20 percent across much of the fire
weather forecast area. With light west to northwest winds only to
around 10 mph, fire weather concerns will be elevated, but not
expected to be near critical.

Tonight...Skies to become partly to mostly cloudy overnight as a
disturbance moves into western Wyoming and western Colorado. This
will drawn a cold front southward into northwest Nebraska toward
daybreak. Another "mild" night with lows from 45 to 50.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The weekend begins cloudy across central Nebraska as a weak
shortwave trough moves across the upper Plains. While the majority
of the precipitation will stay to the north across South Dakota, a
few isolated showers are possible across our northern counties early
on Saturday. If these showers make it into northern Nebraska, they
are expected to be light and will move off to the east by afternoon.
As the surface cold front associated with this upper trough tracks
over the region, a cooler airmass will begin to filter into the
area. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s across the
northern forecast area to the upper 60s across the southern forecast
area. The entire forecast area will also experience much cooler
overnight temperatures on Saturday night. Lows drop into the upper
30s across the entire forecast area.

An upper level ridge builds back across the western US on Sunday
allowing dry conditions to return to central Nebraska. Highs rise up
into the mid 60s to low 70s. The next shortwave passes to the north
of Nebraska on Monday, however at this time, precipitation should
stay north of the forecast area. Have put in a dry forecast for now
as confidence in showers making it south of the border is low at
this time.

Dry weather continues until Thursday when the next potential for
rain arrives. Model consistency in this system is very low and
therefore do not feel comfortable putting in much more than low
chance pops for Thursday. High temperatures hold steady in the mid
to upper 60s through Thursday with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR conditions currently prevail across all of the local forecast
area. Latest satellite imagery shows expansive high cirrus across
western and north central NEB with more tracking eastward from
upstream. Surface plot at the top of the hour shows light
southerly winds being reported in southwest NEB, elsewhere south
to southwest winds between 8-12 kts are being observed.

High clouds will continue to stream eastward rest of tonight. No
significant impacts from clouds/sky cover are expected through
tomorrow. Thereafter, low-end VFR ceilings (greater than 7 kft)
are possible and are anticipated to move into the western NEB
Sandhills and as far east as KVTN Friday evening. Concerns for
LLWS conditions tonight remain limited to north central NEB (and
east of KLBF and KVTN) wherein marginal LLWS conditions will be
possible through the early morning hours. In this area southwest
winds nears 45 kts at the top of the layer (estimated upper height
about 1000 ft) can be expected. Surface winds will stay elevated
the rest of tonight, between 6-12 kts, except for over southwest
NEB. Tomorrow, light winds will prevail in the afternoon and


Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Highs flows to continue along the North Platte River downstream of
Lake McConaughy. Releases downstream are giving flows near 1800 cfs.
The current stage at North Platte was 6.0 feet. These controlled
releases will cause the river stage to remain near the flood stage
of 6.0 feet for the foreseeable future. Therefore, a Flood Advisory
will remain in effect for the North Platte River near North Platte
from Highway 83 to approximately 4 miles west of Highway 83 south of
North River Road.




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