Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 271350 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
950 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY...
High pressure over the Southeastern United States will remain
nearly stationary today allowing for the tight pressure gradient
to remain over South Florida. This will keep the breezy to windy
northeast wind flow ongoing today over South Florida.
The latest observations along the east coast metro areas this
morning were in the 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots with
even the coastal observation getting up to around 30 knots. The
MIA sounding this morning also showed sustained winds of 30 knots
just above the surface around 1600 ft. This will allow for the
winds at the surface to increase to around 20 knots with gusts up
to 30 knots especially over the east coastal areas of South
Florida today. Therefore, a Wind Advisory will be issued for the
east coastal areas of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties
until 8 PM EDT this evening.
A low level trough was also located over the Florida Keys this
morning, and the short range models keep the low level trough
nearly stationary today. This will keep deeper moisture along with
the showers and thunderstorms in the Florida Keys, but there
could still be some showers and a thunderstorm or two over the
southern areas of South Florida for today. Therefore, there will
be a tight gradient in pops over South Florida today with 10 to 20
percent pops over the northern areas increasing to 40 to 50
percent pops over the extreme southern areas of South Florida.
Northeast to east winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts to
near gale force will continue over all of South Florida waters,
except for the Atlantic waters where the sustain winds will be
around 25 knots. This will keep the Atlantic seas at 6 to 8 feet
today, with the Gulf seas at 4 to 6 feet today. Therefore, the SCA
will continue for all of South Florida waters today along with the
High Risk of Rip Currents for the east coast beaches of South
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 730 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016/
Northeast winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots will
continue over the east coast taf sites this morning before
increasing to around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots this
afternoon. For KAPF taf site...northeast winds around 10 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots will be possible this morning before
increasing to around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots this
The weather should remain dry over most of the taf sites this
morning, before VCSH conditions this afternoon. There could be a
thunderstorm or two around the taf sites of KMIA, KTMB, and KOPF
taf sites this afternoon. However, the coverage will be few and
far between the taf sites to mention it at this time in the taf
The ceiling and vis should remain in VFR conditions at all of the
taf sites today, but could fall down into MVFR conditions with
any passage of the showers or even the thunderstorms. If it looks
like the taf sites will have a reduce vis or ceiling from the
showers or thunderstorms, then a tempo group will be added later
today to the affect taf site.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016/
Latest IR satellite loop displays a thin layer of
cirrus lifting to the northeast over South Florida and moisture
laden cumulus/stratocumulus advecting in from the east. Squall lines
containing brief heavy rain and gusty winds continue to push across
southern portions of the peninsula. However, no lightning has been
detected this morning. Easterly winds have gusted in excess of 30
mph at times, in association with the passing showers. Flooding
concerns remain relatively low, due to the rapid movement of this
A high pressure cell in the lower levels, centered near the
Carolinas, will remain stagnant today. This feature, in combination
with lower pressure in the central Carribean, will continue to
tighten the surface pressure gradient over our region. This
afternoon, gusty easterly winds, sustained around 15 to 25 mph, will
once again surface, with strongest gusts along the immediate
Atlantic coast. Lower level moisture will also be on the rise today,
along with precipitation chances. The 00Z GFS has indicated PWAT
values increasing to around 1.75" over the southern tip of the
peninsula over the next several hours. Instability parameters will
also become elevated this afternoon, as 500 mb temps fall to around
-11C. Thus, a chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms appears warranted through at least Friday morning,
especially for southern areas. Little chances synoptically for
Friday and expect the gusty easterly early winds and chances of
precip to continue, mainly affecting the east coast metro and
southern portions of the peninsula. Maximum temperatures during the
next two days will hover in the mid 80s, which is near average for
this time of year.
Later this weekend, the high pressure will slowly edge back to the
west, helping to loosen the surface gradient around South Florida
and slightly weaken the east northeast winds. The atmosphere will
still be relatively moist, with scattered light showers periodically
affecting the eastern and southern portions of the peninsula. Both
the GFS and ECMWF push drier air into the region from the north by
late Monday, eventually dwindling precip chances.
Strong east to northeast flow will continue through at least
Friday, creating winds of 20 to 25 knots. Small craft advisories
will remain in effect for both of the Atlantic and Gulf waters
through Friday evening. Along with the windy conditions, seas may
approach 6 to 8 feet in the Gulf Stream. There will be a chance of
showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms through Friday.
The high rip current threat will continue along the Atlantic
beaches today. Have extended the high rip current risk statement
through Friday, as the strong easterly winds and choppy seas are
forecast to persist.
Gusty showers are moving across the Atlantic terminals with some
of the strongest cells producing brief gusts to around 37 kt at
times. A brief MVFR period is also possible on the Atlantic
terminals with VIS dropping below 3SM under heavy showers through
10Z. The breezy conditions will continue today, then subside a
little later tonight.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 84 77 83 78 / 20 20 20 20
Fort Lauderdale 82 76 83 77 / 20 20 20 20
Miami 82 74 84 76 / 40 30 20 30
Naples 85 70 86 70 / 20 10 10 10
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ630-650-651-
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ610.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for GMZ656-657-676.