Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 161747
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
147 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms developing just west of east coast terminals this
afternoon, should generally remain to the west and spread more
inland as the afternoon wears on. Still, VCTS warranted until
around 21z. VCTS also still possible at Naples a bit later, then
through early evening. Post-sunset, terminals dry until around
midday Thursday. At this point, POPs to low and initiation time
too uncertain to place any SHRA/TSRA for Thursday. Winds will be
onshore at 5-10 mph, calm once again tonight, and then SE 5-10
late Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1006 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

UPDATE...
Morning upper air sounding showed relatively dry airmass resides
over southeast Florida, and warm mid-level temperatures are aiding
in weak lapse rates and not as much instability as previous few
days. Still think sea-breeze induced convection will fire by
afternoon, but have lowered rain chances by roughly 10 percent
across the area. No other significant changes to the forecast this
morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 810 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

CLIMATE...
Naples tied a daily record high minimum of 80 degrees yesterday.
The record was previously set in 2010. Additional record high
minima could be threatened today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-SATURDAY: High pressure will remain in place through today and
into early Thursday at mid and upper levels, with light east to
southeast winds at the surface and a typical summertime pattern.
Expect sea breezes on both coasts to continue through the rest of
the week, with convection most concentrated over the interior during
the afternoons. A TUTT cell will move into the region from the
east on Friday and continue to influence the upper-level pattern
on Saturday. Typically, this would act to increase rain chances.
However, at low to mid levels, guidance is hinting at some SAL
potentially reaching south Florida late Friday into early
Saturday. As a result, expect near climatological rain chances
through Saturday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal.

SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE NEXT WEEK: Any dry air that makes it to our
region won`t be here long, because increased moisture is expected
by late Saturday into early Sunday. This increase in moisture
appears to be associated with a tropical wave. Stronger easterly
winds in the 10-15 mph range will accompany the moisture. On
Monday, mid-upper level high pressure regains control, which means
we would see more typical summertime weather and lower PoPs
compared to Sunday. As we approach the middle of next week, our
rain chances look to increase due to an increase in tropical
moisture.

MARINE...
Mostly good boating conditions are expected for South Florida
waters off both coasts through the first part of the weekend with
seas 2 feet or less. By Saturday, winds increase to 15 kt and
seas build to around 3 feet for the Atlantic waters. Expect these
3 to occasionally 4 foot seas to continue into Monday for the
Atlantic waters with 2-3 foot seas for the Gulf waters.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  94  81  93 /  10  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  81  92  80  92 /  10  30  20  30
Miami            80  93  81  93 /  10  30  20  30
Naples           78  93  78  93 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

UPDATE...23/SK
DISCUSSION...98/ABH
MARINE...98/ABH
AVIATION...23/SK
CLIMATE...23/SK


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