Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 272339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
DESPITE 20 PCT POPS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...ELECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST 8Z. THEREAFTER...A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS...WITH INCREASING SHRA/TSRA PROBS
THROUGH THE DAY. PROB 30 GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED WITH TIME...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN SE WINDS
5-10 KT FRIDAY...EXCEPT KAPF WHERE FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SW 5-10
KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO SHOW SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS AND PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
EVENING..BEFORE SHIFTING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING AND INCREASING TO CHANCE CAT OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY DRY OVER THE LAND AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOST OF HEATING. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BREAK
DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
DISSIPATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND ALSO ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE METRO
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED POPS ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL BE WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST IS FOR ERIKA TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND MOVING TOWARDS
HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH. ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AS IT TRACKS WEST
NORTHWEST. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BACKING TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. THE SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 4 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE MARINE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  91  78  92 /  20  50  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  81  91 /  20  50  20  20
MIAMI            76  91  79  92 /  20  50  30  20
NAPLES           75  91  76  93 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK


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