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000
FXUS62 KMFL 221119
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH TERMINALS KMIA...KOPF AND KTMB
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. THERE IS A LINGERING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY WITH ALL TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 15Z EXCEPT FOR TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED AT 16Z. FOR
ALL TERMINALS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/

UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
MOVEMENT ONSHORE THE COAST. SOME ARE BECOMING HEAVY WITH EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED. GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR DEPICTION, HAVE INCREASED
WEATHER TO NUMEROUS FOR ALL OF THE EAST COAST AND INTERIOR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...A MID-UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
GET PICKED UP AND MERGED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES SUFFICIENT TODAY
TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. HRRR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO THE WEST
PALM BEACH METRO AREA. A FEW STRONG TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN RESIDUAL COLD AIR ALOFT
AS WELL AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL, WE WILL HIGHLIGHT A FEW STRONG TSTORMS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE TREND THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS A DRYING ONE WITH LESS
AND LESS SHOWER AND TSTORMS ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS IS THE RESULT
OF THE LOCAL AREA BEING EAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND
WEST OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WHICH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON TSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY, AND
ISOLATED TSTORMS FRIDAY. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DISSIPATES AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS HOT
AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT WITH LOWER 90S MOST LOCALES. THEN
OVER THE WEEKEND IT TURNS BREEZY ON A NORTHEAST WIND AS THE STRONG
HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THE NORTHEAST WIND IS FORECAST TO LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 60S THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL
NICE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GULF COAST ALONG WITH A STRONGER WIND.

FOR NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE IN THE
OFFING.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THIS MORNING THEN RATHER
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN SEAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC. SWAN IS GENERATING
SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  72  87  73 / 60 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  74  88  76 / 60 20 30 20
MIAMI            87  74  89  76 / 60 20 30 20
NAPLES           85  71  86  72 / 40 20 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA