Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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180
FXUS62 KMFL 060605
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF OUR EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE INCREASING MVFR CIGS LATER
TODAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONITE BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AT APF AND
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG EAST COAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYING KICKS IN. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE
THIS TIME DECIDED TO THROW IN A SCT DECK OF AROUND 1 KFT AND REVISIT
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NE 5-10 KTS ALL
SITES TODAY BACKING TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AS FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO OUR EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS.
THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE DROP FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE SEAS BEING ABOVE 7 FEET
TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3500 FT EAST COAST WITH SKC AT
KAPF...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD PREVAIL. FOR
NOW, HAVE INSERTED PROB30 EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME BUT THIS
LIKELY WILL BECOME TEMPO AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING IN TIME. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. TSRA IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  52  63  42  68 /  80  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  55  64  45  67 /  80  10  10  10
MIAMI            56  65  46  68 /  80  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  61  45  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...52/PS



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