Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 230546 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TODAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF SITE WITH THE WIND FLOW
WILL BE WESTERLY AFTER 16Z DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZE TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES AFTER 15Z TODAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES IS UNKNOWN. THEREFORE...THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES
THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED FOR THE CEILING AND VIS.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED EARLIER
WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REFLECTS THIS
TREND...HOWEVER...DOES INDICATE SOME ISLTD/SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LOWS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK THIS
EVENING WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

&&
85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
SITES OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PLACED VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z-16Z
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AS A GULF BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP.

**
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS SITTING OVER THE MOBILE ALABAMA AREA, AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND THE
HIGH STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT AND BUILDING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE
TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR, WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBABILITY EACH DAY, AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS.

LONG TERM...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BEING
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  91 /  20  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  82  91 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            80  91  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  92  77  92 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...54/BNB


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