Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 160118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
918 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...

RELATIVELY DRIER AIR KEPT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO A MINIMUM TODAY,
AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT, WITH 0Z SOUNDING
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z LAUNCH. NICE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH
THE GULF WATERS AND OFF THE SW COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER THIS
EVENING. PERHAPS AN OLD BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THESE STORMS, OR
A THETA E GRADIENT, IS ALLOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH
OF NAPLES AND OFFSHORE WHICH MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AT BEST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LEFT VCSH/VCTS OUT OF TERMINALS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
COVERAGE AND TIMING /RIGHT NOW POP ONLY 30 PERCENT/. NEARLY CALM
WINDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE THUNDER THREAT OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THE POPS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED SOME MORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE LAND AREAS.

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HIGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO SWING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN FOR TUESDAY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL BE THE SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND FOCUSING THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG
WITH THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...SCATTERED POPS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN WASH OUT LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA ALLOWING FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW
TO BACK FROM A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION LATE THIS WEEK TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT INTO LATE THIS WEEK. A
SMALL LONG-PERIOD SWELL MAY WRAP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY AND COULD LEAD TO INCREASING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE BULK OF
THIS ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST
NORTH OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA MARINE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  73  92 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  76  92 /  10  30  20  50
MIAMI            77  90  76  93 /  10  30  20  40
NAPLES           74  90  75  89 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....54/BNB


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