Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 281926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
326 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017


THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Remainder of the afternoon is expected
to pan out similarly to yesterday with scattered showers and storms
now ongoing along the seabreezes as well as other boundaries across
the region. A special 15Z sounding shows that steering flow remains
non-existent over the region, so storms that develop will move
very little. New development will trend further inland with the
seabreezes as we move through the afternoon, though outflow
boundaries may initiate additional storms back towards the coasts.
Best chances will be late afternoon/early evening with the
seabreeze collision over the interior. Lightning will remain the
main hazard with storms, though slow storm movement will also
bring locally heavy rainfall and boundary collisions may produce
stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail.

Storms are expected to wind down by midnight, with scattered
activity over the open waters overnight occasionally brushing the

THURSDAY: This will be a transitional day, as we lose the influence
of the weak front currently across North Central Florida as high
pressure begins to build in from the east. The overall drier, and
slightly more subsident airmass will keep coverage of showers and
storms right around seasonal norms.

Isolated showers and storms will likely get going along both
seabreezes as they develop and move inland early in the afternoon,
with the east coast seabreeze moving more quickly and afternoon
coverage generally favoring the western interior. With temps aloft
near normal and no significant synoptic features, the biggest hazard
with storms will remain lightning. The light southeasterly wind
profile is also favorable for waterspout development over the local
waters, especially in the morning.

FRIDAY THROUGH FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY: Somewhat stagnant, and fairly
typical summertime pattern will be in place across the region for
this weekend through the upcoming holiday. The axis of the western
Atlantic ridge, both at the surface and aloft, will extend across
the Florida peninsula bringing prevailing easterly flow. Both
seabreezes will develop each afternoon, with the Atlantic seabreeze
dominating and convection favoring the Gulf coast and western
interior. Best rain chances along the east coast will be during the
overnights and mornings. Warm and muggy temperatures will continue
with highs in the lower 90s, leading to afternoon heat indices
around 100F. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 70s, with east
coast locations potentially remaining above 80F for many nights.


.MARINE...Generally good boating conditions will continue across the
local waters into the weekend and early next week. Prevailing winds
will generally be southeasterly at 10kts or less, with local sea
breezes briefly enhancing winds near the coast to 10-15 knots during
the afternoon.

Overall coverage of showers and storms will be on the decrease as we
go into the weekend, with the best coverage over the open waters
during the nights and mornings. Inland waterways, as well as the
Gulf coast will see better chances during the afternoons and
evenings. Erratic winds and higher seas, along with lightning will
be possible in and around thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...Both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes have
developed and are currently moving across the peninsula around 10
KT. Scattered thunderstorms in the western portion of the east
coast metro area may push an outflow boundary or two across the
TAF sites, but less than 25 KT. Winds and shower activity should
diminish aft 29/0000Z. Light and variable winds are expected
tonight with mostly dry conditions. The Gulf and Atlantic sea
breezes will push inland again aft 29/1700Z with more shower/storm
activity developing inland.


West Palm Beach  78  91  78  91 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
Miami            79  92  79  90 /  20  30  30  30
Naples           76  91  76  91 /  20  40  40  40




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