Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 290600
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIRLY
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL INITIATE
AND PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST COAST
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST
FEW DAYS THE CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING IN THE TAF FOR KAPF FOR NOW. ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS THE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT (~5KT THIS MORNING INCREASING
TO 10-12KT THIS AFTERNOON) OUT OF THE ESE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
FOR ALL ATLANTIC SITES. KAPF WILL HAVE LIGHT ESE WINDS THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO THE SW WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z.  /HOETH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER INTERIOR BROWARD, HENDRY AND
COLLIER COUNTIES. THESE CELLS SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTHWARD AND A
COUPLE STILL REMAIN OVER MONROE AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.
ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING-INDUCED INSTABILITY BURNS OUT, SKIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR AND PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER SOUTH FLORIDA NIGHT
OF BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN WEAKENING AND MIGRATING
E AS A TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AN MOVES
EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS
SHOWN ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVING INTO THE SE STATES AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SEEMS TO
REACH THE AREA OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
DISSIPATE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE E TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS AS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN FL.

MODELS SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FROPA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL BRING BACK EASTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, ALONG WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE TROUGH/LOW COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL PUSH ANOTHER SFC FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING VEERING WINDS TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL IN TURN ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA WITH INCREASING POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND EST COAST AREAS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AS THE SECOND FRONT
BECOMES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
THE SEAS AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE TREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LOW ON BOTH
COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE INCREASING SOME
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  72  86  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  74  85  76 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            88  73  85  75 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           87  72  88  71 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99/BH
LONG TERM....52/PS
AVIATION...99/BH



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