Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 050036
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
736 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Model guidance is trending on lower ceilings tonight with a few
isolated showers over the Atlantic waters moving onshore. Expect
the showers to move inland near the east coast metro areas. Also,
lighter winds over the interior and western counties will allow
for patchy ground fog to develop closer to midnight. Added patchy
fog to the forecast and 20% pops for the east metro areas tonight.
The remainder of the forecast is on track. High risk of rip
currents continues through early Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016/

AVIATION...East coast sites will see prevailing cigs FL040-060
with occasional MVFR cigs FL020-030 possible through the TAF
cycle. Models hint at late night development of cigs FL010-020
06Z-13Z, especially at KAPF. Have kept prevailing VFR conditions
for now due to lack of confidence in timing and degree, as think
any cigs would likely be tempo. ESE winds diminishing to 5-10
knots this evening, increasing to 11-16 knots after 14Z from the
SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...Ridge axis centered over the Carolinas extending
across Florida will gradually move eastward today into Monday as
strong closed upper level low travels east across the southeast
plains. This will keep a moderate east wind flow across the area
today and gradually shift southeast tonight into Monday with an
increase in cloud cover compared to yesterday. Moisture content is
still very shallow for convection to occur this afternoon but a
few streamer showers could not be ruled out over the Atlantic
moving a few miles into the coast.

The upper level low will bring a cold front increasing the
development of showers across the area into next week. Models
continue to show very shallow moisture Monday and more abundant
into Tuesday as this front gets closer to South Florida. As
this low lifts northeast, the showers will be limited to the
Gulf coast and Lake Okeechobee areas and less chances into the
southeast coast. Expect temperatures and the humidity increasing
in a more southerly flow with above normal temperatures Monday and
Tuesday.

By mid week into early next weekend, the front stalls over South
Fl as the mid/upper low exits the region keeping front behind
over the area. This will provide a cloudy and wet end of the week
with chance of scattered showers across the area. A stronger front
makes its way across South Florida by the end of the week with
air behind it of Arctic origin indicating cooler temperatures by
the end of the week into early weekend. The core of the coldest
air stays further north providing a short period of cooler temps
across South Fl. Low temperatures trend continue to show to drop
into the 40s Saturday night interior and west and upper 50s and
60s along the southeast coast with highs in the 70s.

MARINE...East winds veer to the SE and increase a little tonight
and Monday, with caution conditions through Monday. Winds could
reach 20 knots into Tuesday over the Atlantic waters before
decreasing as the front stalls over the region. The stronger front
will make its way across South Florida by the end of the week
increasing winds into Friday.

BEACH FORECAST...The rip current risk will remain elevated
through early Monday with moderate SE winds. The winds begin to
decrease and shifts towards the south to southwest Monday into
Tuesday diminishing the rip current risk on the Atlantic side but
will increase some at the Gulf beaches.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  74  84  75  86 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  76  82  76  82 /  20  20  10  20
Miami            75  83  75  84 /  20  20  10  20
Naples           70  81  71  82 /   0  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EST Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...67/MT










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