Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 310038
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
838 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND REGIONAL WATERS
WITH STRONGER RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. HRRR CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY
POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
SOLUTION. UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDING. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PREVAILING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO FACILITATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A CUTOFF LOW TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WITH
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALL OF
THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF AND TO
THE EAST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST
IS SHOWING AN EXPOSED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE RECENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
AND BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY

FOR FRIDAY...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SINK
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE
FORECAST PWAT AROUND 1.9 INCHES. IN ADDITION THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WITH THE STABILITY INDICES INDICATING INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PENINSULA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE SLOWLY  WESTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY
BUT START TO LIFT NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. WEATHER WISE...DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH REGIONAL PWAT`S AROUND 1.9 INCHES. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A LOCALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. BY SUNDAY
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE RETURNING AND WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS FORECAST BUT THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. REGIONAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE OR LESS LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  77  89 /  20  60  50  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  89 /  20  50  30  50
MIAMI            78  91  79  90 /  20  50  30  40
NAPLES           78  88  77  90 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.