Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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329
FXUS64 KMOB 180532 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1132 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR conditions through 19.06z. Winds will be north
at 6 to 10 kts with higher gusts through 19.00z diminishing to 5
kts or less through 19.06z. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1024 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the open
gulf waters of Alabama and Northwest Florida from 0 to 60 nm out
including the lower end of Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound
east of Pascagoula through 6 CST AM Thu morning. Small craft
should exercise caution over remaining inland bays and sounds
through 6 AM CST. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions through 19.00z. Winds will be north
at 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts through 18.06z diminishing to 5
to 10 kts through 19.00z. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Large dome of arctic high
pressure over the deep south continues to bring bitter cold low
temperatures tonight and dangerous wind chill values. Although
wintry weather precipitation has ended, many roads, bridges and
overpasses are expected to see lingering ice which will continue
to make for dangerous driving conditions. This especially true at
night when patches of ice will be most difficult to see. Hard
freeze warning remains in place for all zones. New wind chill
advisory has been issued for tonight going into shortly after
sunrise Thursday morning. Thursday will continue cold, but
temperatures look to recover to well above freezing. /10

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Axis of
strong surface high pressure over the deep south on Thursday night
into Friday slides over the southeast by Saturday. Low temperatures
Thursday night into Friday morning could potentially fall into
the upper teens to around 20 degrees across our interior areas,
and a Hard Freeze Watch is maintained on this package for this
time frame. A gradual moderating (warming trend) sets up heading
into the weekend as the surface high moves more east allowing more
of a flow off the Gulf to evolve. /10

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Surface high pressure
looks to extend from the western Atlantic into the southeast late
in the weekend. To the west, An upper level low pressure system
progresses eastward from the Plains States Sunday to the
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Monday. This supports the
approach of next cold front by Monday, bringing a return to higher
rain chances along with possible embedded thunderstorms to start
the new week. Also, a synoptic scale setup favoring advective type
fog development is possible as warm, moist air flows northward
atop cooler sea surface temperatures near the coast by late Sunday
into Monday morning. Something to watch for, for possible inclusion
on later forecasts. Following the frontal passage on Monday,
temperatures trend closer to more seasonal normals Tuesday and
Wednesday. /10

MARINE...A moderate to strong offshore flow and elevated seas
persists tonight, then diminishes. The highest seas expected to
be well offshore due to the northerly fetch. A more east to
southeast flow sets up heading into the weekend as surface high
pressure moves into the southeast. Next cold front approaches from
the west late Sunday into Monday, bringing an increased chance of
showers and a few storms to the coastal waters. Also, a synoptic
scale setup favoring advective type fog development is possible as
warm, moist air flows northward atop cooler sea surface
temperatures near the coast by late Sunday into Monday morning.
Something to watch for, for possible inclusion on later
forecasts. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     Hard Freeze Watch from 9 AM CST Thursday through Friday morning
     for ALZ051>060-261-262.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM CST Thursday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for FLZ201>206.

     Hard Freeze Watch from 9 AM CST Thursday through Friday morning
     for FLZ201-203-205.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM CST Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

     Hard Freeze Watch from 9 AM CST Thursday through Friday morning
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM CST Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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