Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 181740 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST
CENTRAL AL SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST MS THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT GENERATED THIS RAIN WILL BE SHEARING OUT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY RESULTING IN THE
PRECIP GRADUALLY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FAR
INLAND SE MS/SW AL. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.
DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE FAR NW ZONES BASED ON COOLER
THAN FORECAST OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM HIGH LEVEL BASES
THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE JUST TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN   CHANCES TONIGHT...WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
40S WELL INLAND TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY THEN WEAKENS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY.  THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO TAKE AN EVEN MORE SOUTHWARD
TRAJECTORY...MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY TO THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST GULF ON SATURDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA IN THE
PROCESS.  THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION DRAMATICALLY LOWERS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE AREA THOUGH WILL STILL KEEP SOME STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVEN THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE WESTERN FOURTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING PORTION...THEN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
LIKELY POPS ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO
THE PLAINS MEANWHILE ON SATURDAY AND SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO NEAR
60 OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO ADD MENTION OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ON TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE
MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY
THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. /29

MARINE...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. /13

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. CIGS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  48  56  49  61 /  10  20  70  80  30
PENSACOLA   64  49  58  50  62 /  05  10  50  70  50
DESTIN      63  51  59  51  63 /  05  05  40  50  50
EVERGREEN   62  42  55  45  58 /  05  10  70  80  50
WAYNESBORO  59  43  52  42  57 /  20  20  80  80  30
CAMDEN      59  41  55  43  58 /  05  05  70  90  50
CRESTVIEW   65  44  60  46  63 /  05  05  50  60  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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