Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KMOB 252314 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
614 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


00Z issuance...Satellite shows a large canopy of mainly high level
cirrus streaming eastward out of the plains. No impacts to aviation
operations with VFR conditions forecast overnight. Light southerly
component to the winds this evening become east southeast by
daybreak. /10


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Upper ridging along with high
pressure building across the Mid-Atlantic and ridging southwest
across the central Gulf coast will maintain dry conditions across
the area. Temperatures will also continue to moderate through the
forecast period with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s inland to
low 60s along the coast. Clouds will increase Wednesday afternoon as
a shortwave approaches from the west. Despite the increase in
clouds, dry conditions continue through Wednesday as a deep layer
dry airmass remains over the area. Highs on Wednesday will be in the
low 80s inland to around 80 along the coast. 13/JC

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...The previously
mentioned shortwave will continue to drop down toward the forecast
area Wednesday night, then across the region on Thursday (into early
Thursday evening). This will result in a brief breakdown of the
surface ridge across the area and allow a weak cold front to drift
down into the interior portions of the southeastern states and become
stationary through early Friday with another high pressure ridge
building in from the north by Friday night. Once the forcing from
the upper shortwave moves east of our area by late Thursday evening
though, any chances for precipitation will end. Low-mid level
moisture will still be very limited as the shortwave passes and the
weak front approaches and lingers to the north, so only some isolated
showers possible. Most locations are expected to remain rain-free.
The better chances for the isolated showers will be over the southern
half of the forecast area where the moisture will be slightly more
plentiful, but still limited. High temperatures in the lower 80s on
Thursday and in the mid 80s on Friday. Lows ranging from mid to upper
50s interior to the mid and upper 60s coastal. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Ridging, surface and aloft,
returns to the forecast area during the long term period with mostly
clear skies and no precipitation expected. May see some thin high
clouds...especially by Tuesday as weak upper shortwave energy
approaches from the west, but that is about it. Light northeast to
east flow gradually becomes more southeasterly through the period,
with slight moistening late in the period. Consistent temperature
pattern will prevail, with daytime highs in the lower 80s near the
coast and mid 80s elsewhere. Nighttime lows same as short term
period, ranging from mid to upper 50s interior to the mid and upper
60s coastal. 12/DS

MARINE...Easterly winds will become southeast tonight into
Wednesday as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic. A light to
moderate easterly flow will develop late in the week and continue
through the end of the week. 13/JC




This product is also available on the web at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.