Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 021816
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
116 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODS OF IFR IN
LOCATIONS NEAR THE CONVECTION. AFTER ABOUT 03/02Z THIS EVENING
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...BUT LOWER IFR CEILINGS BECOME
MORE PREVALENT. LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY SOME LIFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT (4SM) FOG POSSIBLE. SFC WINDS PRIMARILY SOUTH AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS...BUT MORE VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN PERHAPS MORE WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF
A DECAYING AREA OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL MVFR OR BETTER CIGS VISBYS CURRENTLY OVER MOST
OF THE FA WERE OBSERVES AT ISSUANCE TIME. EXCEPTION IS EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH IFR OR LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VISBYS ATTM. AM
EXPECTING THESE TO RISE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN DROP AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER FA. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING TODAY
WILL BRING LOCAL DROPS INTO LOW END MVFR/IFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES
THROUGH THE SW TO NE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A FOCUSING
SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY EASES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO OVER THE FA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. AND WITH THE GREATER
COVERAGE OF RAIN COMES LOWER TEMPS. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT`S LOWS SHOWS THE SAME
NW TO SE TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOWERS 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S
SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH INSTABILITY ON THE LIMITED
SIDE AND GENERALLY MOST AVAILABLE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BETTER
HIGHEST POPS...IN THIS CASE ALONG THE COAST. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LIMITED...ALSO...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SUPER CELLS. THE
FA MAY SEE A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
65...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. /16

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN AN WEST-EAST ELONGATED UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE 15-DEGREE NORTH LATITUDE AND AN UPPER
TROUGH PRESSING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES FROM
THE NORTH. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT NEARING THE I-65 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GENERAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER
TO ONE-HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF I-65 WILL BE AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH MID WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 78 TO 83 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL BE ABOUT TWO DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 5OS NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH LOWER 60S AT THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 5OS INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO LEVELS WITH
MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. /13

MARINE...A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW... AND
LAST INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. SOME WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
OCCUR...BUT A RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL BRING A ANOTHER SHOT OF
NORTHERLY AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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