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000
FXUS64 KOHX 091055 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
555 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MVFR BKN/SCT STRATUS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST 09/15Z...WITH SOME MVFR
TEMP FOG POSSIBLE CSV. OTHERWISE...BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
ALONG WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR/SKC CONDITIONS
THRU 10/12Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE MID STATE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO...THE UPCOMING FCST FOR TODAY WILL INCLUDE
POPS BETWEEN 0 AND 10 PERCENT AND THUS PRECIP WORDING WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED. AS FOR THE CLOUD COVERAGE...WE ARE STILL SEEING LOW
CLOUDINESS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL AND AR AS WELL.
SO THOUGH THE MODELS LEAN TOWARD CLEARING US OUT...I WILL BE SURE TO
INCLUDE A MORNING PORTION OF THE FCST WHERE MCLDY SKIES PREVAIL.

OTW...SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY NW
BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 MPH. MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE WARMTH THAT
THE MARCH SUN BRINGS. THEREFORE...DESPITE THE NEW PREVAILING COOLER
AIRMASS...I WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
+4C ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CAA IS NOT THAT STRONG.

THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SFC HIGH SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE GULF. FLOW WILL BECOME UNIFORMLY WESTERLY. SO WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RATHER IMPRESSIVE
DIURNAL TEMP VARIATIONS. MON MORNING WILL START OUT AROUND 38F AT
BNA AND WILL WARM TO NEAR 70.

IN THE EXT FCST...STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST AND APPROACH THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KY...LEAVING MIDDLE TN IN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTER VALUES DO APPROACH ZERO SO CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER. BUT...LLJ NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS
DONT REALLY ORGANIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

AS FOR THE BACKSIDE MOISTURE IN THE COLD SECTOR...WE DO SEE SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
BOTH THE EURO AND GFS SHOW FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WITH 850 MB
MOISTURE AND PRECIP STILL IN PLACE. WILL OPT TO INCLUDE A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX BUT MAY LEAN MORE TOWARD RAIN DEPENDING ON SFC TEMP RETURNS
IN TH GRIDS. 850 MB TEMPS CERTAINLY LOOK COLD ENOUGH BUT THE SFC TO
925 MB TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

AFTER A COLD NIGHT AND DAY ON WED NT/THU...THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MILDER MORE SEASONAL TEMPS WILL RETURN.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
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