Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 121144
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
544 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN FROM THE MID MS VALLEY IS ALREADY
GENERATING RADAR RETURNS OVER MID TN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO FAR
MOSTLY VIRGA FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND ADVISORY...WITH A FLUFFY INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS AROUND LAFAYETTE...CELINA... LIVINGSTON AND
JAMESTOWN. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL ALSO EXIST AS FAR WEST AS
INTERSTATE 24...PROBABLY JUST A BRIEF DUSTING. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MORNING HOURS...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST
TO MID 40S SOUTH WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.

LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO MID
TN THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY...BUT QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH LOWS AGAIN THE TEENS.

ON SUNDAY...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER OUR FAR NORTH COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
CHILLY 30S.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SWINGS DOWN
AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER TX. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL
THEN BECOME A BIG EAST COAST STORM.

AS THE BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO CAUSE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARMING LAYER ALOFT...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE MID STATE. THE BEST SHOT FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE ALONG THE NORTH TIER AND PLATEAU SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS
FEATURES...THERMAL PROFILES...AND EFFECTS SUCH AS WET BULBING AND
DYNAMIC COOLING.

BY DAYTIME MONDAY...MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARMER AIR AND
A TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID. A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED AS
THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
STARTS TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...QUIET WX IS ON THE WAY
WITH A WARMING TREND. IN FACT...IT WILL FEEL SPRING LIKE LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND
BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE...
INCLUDING THE CSV AREA.

AT CSV...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 17Z.

AT BNA AND CKV...EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING, BECOMING PREVAILING MVFR AFTER 16Z. MVFR THEN
CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z. AFTER 07Z, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLAY-FENTRESS-
JACKSON-MACON-OVERTON-PICKETT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................13


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