Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 212149
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
349 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WHICH MEANS A WARMER NIGHT IS IN STORE...LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
NORTH AND LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. LOW POPS WILL SURROUND THE MID STATE ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING
AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AS FAR AS THE FROPA GOES...IT MAY
BE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY THE TIME THE FRONT CLEARS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...IF TRAVELLING
CLOSER TO THE GULF FOR THE HOLIDAYS KEEP AN EYE ON FORECASTS AS
THEY COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA,
MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE PUSHING EAST BY
NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ONCE AGAIN MODELS
ARE TRENDING WARMER WITH THESE TEMPS. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOKS TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WHERE SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH
RAIN...MAINLY LATE IN THE EVENING. ANY LINGERING PRECIP AROUND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER 12AM THURSDAY MORNING MAY FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS LOWER LEVELS COOL TO THE LOW 30S. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON THE PLATEAU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT
SNOW DURING THIS TIME...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT IS ABLE TO BRING
OUR WAY. WENT AS HIGH AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
WRAPPING UP ON SATURDAY EVENING. COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE PLATEAU NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE COOLING DOWN TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS NEXT WEEKEND. NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 40S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND UPPER 20S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  56  51  60 /  10  20  40  80
CLARKSVILLE    38  55  51  58 /  10  20  60  90
CROSSVILLE     38  52  47  56 /  20  20  20  80
COLUMBIA       41  56  51  60 /  20  20  40  80
LAWRENCEBURG   42  55  51  60 /  20  20  50  90
WAVERLY        39  55  51  59 /  10  20  70  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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