Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 021100
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
600 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE MID-STATE THIS MORNING AFTER SEVERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WORKED THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. AT FORECAST TIME...ALL OF MIDDLE TN REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN STUCK IN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. DEW POINTS HOVER IN THE LOW 60S AND WHILE THIS IS GOING TO
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEAL WITH FIRST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S ACTIVITY IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
CLARKSVILLE...STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SWWD THROUGH WEST TN
AND INTO NORTHERN MS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AS IT DOES
SO...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MIXED INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON FOR
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE MID-STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
DECENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS...COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 60S AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE MID-STATE...
SHOULD GIVE US ENOUGH CAPE FOR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
SHEAR WILL BE GREATLY LACKING FOR ANY REAL ORGANIZATION. FORECAST
PWATS SPIKE A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON SO THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
PROFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. EVERYBODY SOUTH OF I-40 SHOULD SEE ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN. THIS WON`T BE ENOUGH FOR FLOODING...SO
THE ONLY THING TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
TODAY WILL BE AN EXTREMELY MARGINAL RISK OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
FINALLY EXIT THE MID-STATE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING JUST A
COUPLE OF REMNANT SHOWERS FROM SUNSET UNTIL THEN.

THE PASSING OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A
FAIRLY DRASTIC ATMOSPHERE CHANGE COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
OVER THE LAST WEEK OR WEEK AND A HALF. TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WILL BRING
SMALL RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...AS WELL AS
SOME MARKEDLY COOLER AIR. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE`LL SEE
TEMPERATURES...BOTH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND MORNING LOWS...WELL BELOW
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THURSDAY LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
EVERYONE AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S.

ONCE THE SECOND OF THESE TWO SHORTWAVES MAKES IT THROUGH THE MID-
STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THAT`S IT FOR THE RAIN UNTIL
PROBABLY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  WE`LL SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP FROM
FRIDAY RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 80S RETURNING AREA-WIDE BY
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT IS JUST PAST BNA THIS HOUR, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, NOT
MOVING EAST OF THE PLATEAU UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SOME CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AROUND THE MID STATE TODAY, THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, BUT A FEW POST-FRONTAL CELLS
WILL OCCUR, TOO. DESPITE NEAR-SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT, WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING
DENSE. BUT LOOK FOR IFR CIGS AT CSV BY 06Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........08
LONG TERM..................UNGER



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