Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 272001
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
301 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Numerous thunderstorms have moved into our western counties,
including a few likely severe storms with radar indicating large
hail. Afternoon analysis indicates dew points around 60, capes
near 1500 J/kg, and low level SRH just over 200. That is enough to
get some rotation within the individual storms, which supports
large hail and localized damaging winds. Although the potential
for tornadoes is relatively low, we will need to monitor these
rotating storms closely for localized spin up potential. These
thunderstorms will continue to move eastward across the Mid STate
through the next few hours. HRRR model indicates additional
thunderstorms, currently forming farther west along the Ms River,
will consolidate into a line and sweep through this evening with
possible strong winds. Timing of this line is estimated to be at
CKV around 6 PM, BNA by 8 PM, and 10 PM for the Plateau.
Many areas will have more than 1 inch of rainfall through tonight,
with some locally heavier amounts possible. A few localized flash
flood warnings are possible.
A few showers will linger into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, upper
ridging will build in Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be
warm. Lingering cloudiness on Tuesday will only allow low to mid
70s, but more sun and rising heights Wednesday will allow highs
A strengthening low pressure system over the Plains will bring our
next chance of thunderstorms by Thursday. This looks like another
potentially severe thunderstorm day as low level moisture and
southerly flow increases ahead of an approaches cold front.
Thunderstorms chances will stay in the forecast from Thursday
Saturday and Sunday look pretty good at this time. The next system
with more showers and storms is set to roll in next Monday or
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Numerous showers/storms will affect airports this TAF period
especially later this afternoon/evening. MVFR cigs/vis anticipated
with lower categories and amendments possible. Gusty south to
southwest winds this afternoon will weaken and veer to
west/northwest late in the TAF period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 58 72 52 78 58 / 100 10 10 0 20
Clarksville 55 69 52 74 57 / 90 10 10 10 20
Crossville 57 69 50 74 55 / 90 20 10 0 10
Columbia 59 72 52 78 58 / 100 10 10 20 10
Lawrenceburg 59 73 52 79 58 / 100 10 10 20 10
Waverly 56 70 52 76 59 / 90 10 10 10 20