472
FXUS64 KOHX 131716
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1216 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

It`s pretty cool out there this morning with temps in the low to
mid 60s. Current radar imagery shows some very light and
scattered precip across the area. I would be surprised if any of
it was making it to the ground, though, as this morning`s balloon
launch shows a large dry layer above us. As the upper-level low
continues to scoot in, moisture will fill in and rain will likely
start making it to the ground this afternoon. The scattered
activity will continue through the afternoon. Instability should
stay on the low side, but can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder
today.

For tonight, the latest CAMs are showing a line of thunderstorms
developing across west Tennessee overnight tonight around 3 to 4
am and pushing east through the area during the morning hours
Tuesday. While there won`t be much instability around during that
time, there could still be some thunder. Models show a second line
developing between 12pm-2pm Tuesday afternoon that could bring a
marginal severe threat, particularly to areas south of I-40.
Right now, the main threats with that line appear to be small hail
and damaging winds. I know with the recent bout of severe
weather, that`s not what people want to hear. On the plus side,
Tuesday looks like the only day (for now at least) of any
consequence...And the threat is marginal. 0-6km shear values will
be pretty low, lapse rates aren`t great (around 6 C/Km), and mean
instability is around 1400 J/KG.

Something else worth noting is that there could be a few heavy
downpours with PWAT values near 1.40" tomorrow. While flooding
isn`t a great concern, it will be something to monitor since the
ground is still so saturated and a few waterways are still very
full. That previous sentence goes for the whole forecast package,
both now and through the long term. Rainfall amounts Monday-
Wednesday will be anywhere from 0.5" to 1".

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered activity will continue through Tuesday night and will
be slow to exit off the Plateau on Wednesday. We`ll have some more
scattered activity around as the surface low spins NE out of the
area. Looking aloft, ridging will start building in late Wednesday
night. This will provide temporary relief from the rain for at
least Thursday. This upper-air pattern is a progressive one,
though, and another upper-level low developing over the SW will
start pushing this way through the rest of the forecast period.
This translates to an active and unsettled weather pattern for the
weekend. Forecast rainfall amounts for Friday-Sunday range
anywhere from 0.5" to near 2".

Temperatures in the extended period will generally be in the low
80s for highs and overnight temps in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Cigs will continue to lower this afternoon and will reach MVFR
levels after 21z. They will remain in MVFR into tomorrow and may
lower to IFR levels at times. A few light showers will be possible
now through the overnight with better chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms moving in after 11z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will continue into tomorrow afternoon and will
become more widespread. Winds will be breezy this afternoon out of
the south up to 15-20 knots, winds fall below 10 knots overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  78  63  78 /  60  90  90  60
Clarksville    62  76  61  75 /  80  90  80  40
Crossville     57  71  58  70 /  40  90  90  80
Columbia       63  77  61  78 /  80  90  90  50
Cookeville     60  74  60  72 /  40  90  90  80
Jamestown      58  73  58  70 /  50  90  90  80
Lawrenceburg   63  76  61  77 /  70  80  80  50
Murfreesboro   62  78  61  77 /  40  90  80  60
Waverly        62  75  60  76 /  80  90  80  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Mueller