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000
FXUS64 KOHX 240831
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
331 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Today-Sat Night)

Will continue mention of patchy fog thru mid morning hrs
Cumberland Plateau Region per best low level moisture pooling,
calm winds, clr skies, and sfc obs across this area. Otherwise,
about as straight forward a forecast as you can get for the short
term forecast period. Initially based midwest/Great Lakes dominant
sfc ridging influences along with a dry nwly flow aloft will be
the main wx players thru this forecast period. This will bring
moclr skies today and tonight before a transition to ptcldy skies
across the mid state region Fri thru Sat night. This will also
result in the continuation of less humid conditions than those
experienced earlier this week also. On the whole, about as
pleasant of a late summertime August wx pattern across our mid
state region as one could hope for. As sfc riding influences do
shift further ewd into ern portions of the Great Lakes Region Fri
and eventually into New England by 12Z Sun, a slight increase in
overall atm moisture will result in ptcldy skies.

As for temps, As a result of above mentioned wx pattern, highs
today will continue to reflect the CAA pattern that was initially
established across the mid state region yesterday. Highs will
continue to range between 5-7 degrees below seasonal normal
values. Afternoon high temps today will range in the low to mid
80s, upper 70s to around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region.
Anticipating afternoon high temps to remain around these values
for Fri afternoon and Sat afternoon also. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 50s Cumberland Plateau Region to lower 60s southwest
and Nashville Metro areas. Strongest impacts of sfc riding
influences will be felt across mid state by late Fri night, with
overnight lows of a much more broad areal spread in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Overnight lows Sat night will begin to slightly
warm, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

31

.LONG TERM...
(Sun-Wed)

On Sunday, the dry Canadian high pressure system will begin to
weaken across the area as warmer and more humid air returns. This
change in air mass will bring a slight chance for afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm well into the 80s.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase Monday as an
upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes Region and spins
disturbances southeastward. Highs will be mainly in the lower
80s with typical August humidity. During this time, the TX Gulf
Coast will continue to be deluged with the remnants of Harvey.

For Tuesday and beyond, the main features impacting the forecast
will be the upper trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and
of course, the remnants of Harvey. It appears showers and storms
will continue to be scattered in nature Tuesday and Wednesday for
Mid TN, as Harvey continues to wreak havoc along the Gulf Coast. The
tropical remnants may finally budge on Wednesday, possibly
bringing heavy rain to TN late week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. Some models are still holding onto fog potential overnight,
with better chances at KCSV. Have MVFR fog mention at KCSV but
still holding off on other terminals overnight. Winds will be out
of the north/northeast for most of the TAF period, with winds
around 5 knots overnight increasing to near 10 knots by mid
morning. Some gusts may get to 15 to 20 knots at KBNA and KMQY
during the afternoon, but otherwise expecting VFR conditions
during the day for all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  63  84  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    82  58  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Crossville     78  55  79  58  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
Columbia       83  61  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   83  60  84  61  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waverly        81  61  82  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........Barnwell