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000
FXUS64 KOHX 311120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
520 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF...IF NOT ALL OF...MIDDLE TN WILL BE OVC
TODAY...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VRB. LOOKS FOR CIGS TO START FALLING IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER APPALACHIA IS
BEGINNING TO PULL EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW TODAY
AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE COOL START TO THE DAY AND THE
PROMISE OF CLOUD COVER, DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL WARM UP QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO AM TRENDING TOWARD THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS. MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE MID STATE. SUNDAY
WILL BE WASH- OUT AS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AS A RESULT OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FROPA IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE 00Z-12Z TIME FRAME SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE LOW CENTER PASSES SO
CLOSE TO OUR NORTH, EXTENSIVE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY 12Z MONDAY, THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SWITCH
OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY MIDDAY MONDAY. ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. A MID-WEEK SYSTEM COULD
POSE PROBLEMS IF THE GFS SOLUTION WORKS OUT. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF
KEEPS ALL PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH, SO THE DETAILS REMAIN
SKETCHY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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