Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 272001
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
301 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Numerous thunderstorms have moved into our western counties,
including a few likely severe storms with radar indicating large
hail. Afternoon analysis indicates dew points around 60, capes
near 1500 J/kg, and low level SRH just over 200. That is enough to
get some rotation within the individual storms, which supports
large hail and localized damaging winds. Although the potential
for tornadoes is relatively low, we will need to monitor these
rotating storms closely for localized spin up potential. These
thunderstorms will continue to move eastward across the Mid STate
through the next few hours. HRRR model indicates additional
thunderstorms, currently forming farther west along the Ms River,
will consolidate into a line and sweep through this evening with
possible strong winds. Timing of this line is estimated to be at
CKV around 6 PM, BNA by 8 PM, and 10 PM for the Plateau.

Many areas will have more than 1 inch of rainfall through tonight,
with some locally heavier amounts possible. A few localized flash
flood warnings are possible.

A few showers will linger into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, upper
ridging will build in Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be
warm. Lingering cloudiness on Tuesday will only allow low to mid
70s, but more sun and rising heights Wednesday will allow highs
near 80.

A strengthening low pressure system over the Plains will bring our
next chance of thunderstorms by Thursday. This looks like another
potentially severe thunderstorm day as low level moisture and
southerly flow increases ahead of an approaches cold front.
Thunderstorms chances will stay in the forecast from Thursday
through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday look pretty good at this time. The next system
with more showers and storms is set to roll in next Monday or
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Numerous showers/storms will affect airports this TAF period
especially later this afternoon/evening. MVFR cigs/vis anticipated
with lower categories and amendments possible. Gusty south to
southwest winds this afternoon will weaken and veer to
west/northwest late in the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      58  72  52  78  58 / 100  10  10   0  20
Clarksville    55  69  52  74  57 /  90  10  10  10  20
Crossville     57  69  50  74  55 /  90  20  10   0  10
Columbia       59  72  52  78  58 / 100  10  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   59  73  52  79  58 / 100  10  10  20  10
Waverly        56  70  52  76  59 /  90  10  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........Shamburger



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