Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 212342
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINAL
AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THIS
AREAS WEATHER ATTM. THETAE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NE OK ITO CENTRAL AR AND WEST CENTRAL MS AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR ITSELF INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A CU FIELD IN THE 4-5KFT LAYER DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TXK/SHV/TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CEILINGS
AT THESE HEIGHTS WED MORNING BUT FOR NOW...LEFT CEILINGS OUT OF
THE TERMINALS. WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF LOWER VSBYS AT THE
MLU TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z BUT DRIER AIR MAY NOT ALLOW THIS
TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NE WINDS
PREVAILING NEAR 5-8KTS BEYOND 14Z WED.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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