Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 190233
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
933 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW
AR/SE OK AS WELL AS NW LA LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS AN TONGUE OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. COULD NOT PICK OUT THIS BOUNDARY IN MY 02Z SFC ANALYSIS
BUT IT`S OBVIOUSLY THERE WITH THE ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL
ONGOING NOT TO MENTION WEAK THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
PLACE.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DRIER AIR FUNNELING IN FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT NOT SEEING THIS AS OF YET SO FOR THE
UPDATE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEST PWAT IS OBVIOUSLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THERE
IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY REMAINING AT LEAST AT THE
SFC. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES AS OF 02Z ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT...THUS FCST MIN TEMPS OF THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL
WORK. ALSO HAD TO ADJUST SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE
MADE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...BUT
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS MAY PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST SITES WILL SEE REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AFTER AROUND 06Z. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR-
CALM/LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO E TO ESELY
WINDS 5-10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  91  70  92  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  69  90  68  92  67 /  20  10  10   0  10
DEQ  67  87  67  90  68 /  20   0  10  10  20
TXK  68  89  69  90  69 /  20   0  10  10  20
ELD  68  89  68  91  69 /  20   0  10   0  10
TYR  70  90  69  92  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  68  90  68  92  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  69  89  70  92  70 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13





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