Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 131006
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
406 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HELD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE
LAST WEEK HAS WEAKENED WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE FLOW ALOFT TO
TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH PASSES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEEM COOL TODAY COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS BUT WILL ACTUALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF US
BUT WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THE INCREASED VERTICAL ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 30. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
INCREASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND TROUGH MAY BE
ENOUGH TO YIELD SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
QUICKLY END MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT TOTALS UP TO 1.25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE
I-20 AND I-30 CORRIDORS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN AFTER MONDAY AS A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO OUR AREA. THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING AND THERE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED TIME FOR RETURN FLOW TO BUILD ANY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  41  60  51 /   0   0  20  60
MLU  50  35  60  51 /   0   0  20  60
DEQ  50  35  52  43 /   0  10  30  60
TXK  50  38  55  46 /   0   0  20  60
ELD  47  33  56  47 /   0   0  20  60
TYR  59  50  65  52 /   0  10  20  60
GGG  57  44  63  52 /   0   0  20  60
LFK  62  47  67  56 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09


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