Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 230038
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST TERMINALS 06-09Z...AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHWRS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TX. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
PASSES OVER THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AFTER
TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY AND NORTHERN BAJA REGION MOVES EAST WITH TRAILING
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH AND
BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WATER RUNOFF MOVING DOWN THE RED
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES...AND PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEKEND AND START TO THE
WORK WEEK. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE QUICK WATER
RUNOFF AND FLOODING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK
WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDING TO THE TOTAL ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL FOR THE REGION TO 4 TO 6 INCHES AND HIGHER. THIS WILL
PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER/LAKE AND FLASH FLOODING INTO THE
WORKWEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  71  82 /  10  20  50  70
MLU  60  84  70  86 /   0  20  30  40
DEQ  58  79  68  76 /  20  30  70  80
TXK  60  82  69  80 /  20  30  60  80
ELD  57  83  69  83 /  10  20  30  60
TYR  65  82  71  78 /  20  40  60  80
GGG  64  82  71  80 /  20  40  60  80
LFK  69  83  72  82 /  20  40  50  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



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