Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 260016
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
616 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, IFR for KLFK with MVFR/VFR everywhere else as a
large area of showers extends from KLFK to near KELD and points
SE. This area of showers will continue to move E this evening and
should push E of KMLU by 06Z. Light NE winds will keep cigs/vsby
issues IFR, but skies should lift and clear from NE to SE 12Z-
18Z. Climb winds are NE only to about 2kft and quickly veer to SE
then SW by 4kft. Speeds increase from 20-80KT into flight levels.
Outlook is for dry weather for Monday and half of Tuesday. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Elevated lift behind a cold front along with an upper-level
disturbance continuing to generate showers and isolated
thunderstorms across much of deep east Texas and north Louisiana.
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms to eject east later
tonight as shortwave trough pushes east of the region. Overnight
low temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 30s across
southeast Oklahoma where skies are forecast to become mostly clear
to the mid to upper 40s elsewhere.

Weak upper-level ridging to bring a period of sunshine to the
region on Monday across most locations with afternoon high
temperatures forecast to climb to around 70 areawide. However,
benign conditions to be short lived as surface high shifts east
and warm front retreats north bringing increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the region by Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of severe weather on Tuesday across parts
of east Texas and northwest Louisiana within the vicinity of
retreating warm front. Increased low-level moisture combined with
cold temperatures aloft and a significant wind shear will allow
for the chance for severe hail during the mid to late afternoon
hours.

Heavy rain threat will also increase mainly across northeast
Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas on Wednesday
evening as upper-level shortwave intercepts lingering warm front
and approaching cold front from the west. Enhanced low-level
moisture and instability along with weak 250mb divergence will
also be contributing factors to heavy rain threat. One to three
inches of rainfall may be possible across these areas.
Additionally, a severe weather threat will continue into wednesday
night with winds and tornadoes being the main threat along and
ahead of the cold front.

Dry conditions to prevail through the remainder of the workweek
as upper ridge rebuilds across the region. Temperatures to range
from highs in the 60s to lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s on
Friday and Saturday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  47  69  50  68 /  40  10  10  70
MLU  49  69  47  70 /  90  10  10  60
DEQ  40  68  43  64 /  10   0  10  60
TXK  43  68  46  65 /  10  10  10  70
ELD  44  69  44  67 /  40  10  10  60
TYR  47  70  50  67 /  10  10  10  70
GGG  47  70  50  67 /  20  10  10  70
LFK  50  72  54  72 /  60  10  10  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/05


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