Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 212020
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
320 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Low topped warm air advection showers developing in low lvl
moisture beneath mid lvl capping. Limited thunder and confined
mostly to se corner of cwa and further south. This activity will
likely diminish by sunset with the linear mcs just getting going
over central OK by then. A squall line expected to arrive in se OK
just after midnight, but including pops for possibility of
development across this area just before midnight. Stg to possible
svr wind gusts may accompany the leading edge of these storms as
they enter the Red River Basin. However, as this line moves into
remaining portions of the area, expect any svr storms to weaken
considerably well before sunrise as the storms enter the heart of
the cwa. One to near two inches of beneficial rainfall will catch
most of the region during the late night and morning hours Sunday.
Some of this could linger across eastern portions of area into the
aftn hours, depending on the trough beginning to close off as it
moves east across northern AR. Although winds will gust from the
w-nw after the storms, marginal and fairly brief nature of these
gusty winds may preclude issuance of lwa.  As these storms
develop along a pre frontal sfc trough, colder air will not begin
to arrive until Monday night with the main cold front. Tuesday
will thus be another day of nw winds, in the 10 to 15 mph range,
with decoupling winds and good rad cooling Tue night with most
overnight lows into the 40s. Skies will remain mostly sunny in
drier airmass thru the week with the arrival of another upper
trough late week./07/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

AVIATION...
Lingering MVFR ceilings across area terminals to become VFR this
afternoon. Could see VCTS conditions across MLU/ELD from
21/21Z-22/00Z. Ceilings to begin to deteriorate to MVFR around
22/06Z ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms expected
across area terminals from 22/09Z across TYR/GGG/TXK/ELD to 22/12Z
across LFK/SHV/MLU. Lingering convection to persist through 22/15Z
with southeast winds becoming northwest at around 15 knots and
gusty. Ceilings to remain MVFR through 22/18Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  74  52  76 /  70  70  10  10
MLU  69  76  56  74 /  50  80  20  10
DEQ  63  71  49  76 / 100  30  10  10
TXK  65  72  50  76 /  90  50  10  10
ELD  68  73  51  74 /  70  70  20  10
TYR  64  72  51  76 /  80  50  10  10
GGG  66  73  50  76 /  70  60  10  10
LFK  70  77  51  77 /  50  70  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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