Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 011114
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus has become scattered over the southern terminals this
morning with VFR ceilings expected at all terminals through the next
24 hours. Southerly winds will be gusting 15 to 25 knots at all
terminals through most of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Today will be hot and dry as the forecast area rests beneath an
upper ridge that stretches across the entire southern CONUS. At the
surface, a tight surface pressure gradient associated with a lee
side trough that lies from the northern panhandle to southeastern
New Mexico will result in southerly winds 10 to 20 mph across the
northern CWA and 5 to 15 mph across the southern CWA. Afternoon
highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with the warmer temperatures
over the northern CWA. Morning lows tomorrow will be in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Weekend)

Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the
dominant force through much of the upcoming week. Tropical
disturbance will shift across the Yucatan and into the extreme
southwest Gulf of Mexico before moving back into Mexico south of
Brownsville. With this trajectory, getting any showers or storms
as far north as West Central Texas looks unlikely. Cant rule out
some stray convection trying to work its way into the I-10 area
from Sonora to Junction on Wednesday, but the odds of this
happening appear so small that we will hold out of the forecast
for now.

Kept the rain chances in for next weekend, despite some model
differences. The ECMWF is forecasting a much better chance of rain
than the GFS, mainly because the ECMWF pushes a surface boundary
farther south than the GFS. As we have seen over the last few
events, even when the main cold front has stalled well north of
the area, we have had enough convective outflows sagging into the
area to produce some scattered convection. May not happen next
weekend, but given the small PoP`s already in the forecast, best
option is to let it ride for now and see what happens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  75  99  73  96 /   5   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  99  74  99  74  95 /   0   0   5   5  10
Junction  96  74  95  74  92 /   0   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07









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