Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 291007 CCB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
504 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

(Today and Tonight)

An outflow boundary (from previous convection) has sagged south into
the southern third of our area early this morning. Behind this
boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across
the central third of our area, but this is much weaker than what
occurred across the Big Country earlier in the night.

The forecast concerns for this afternoon and tonight are on the
possibility for additional severe weather, and on heavy rainfall and
the associated possibility for flooding.

An upper low will move east across southern California and into far
western Arizona by Monday morning. With southwest flow aloft into
our area out ahead of the low, model indications are for an embedded
disturbance to enter southwest Texas by this evening, continuing
into our area overnight. Convection this morning will gradually
dissipate, and should have a decrease in cloud cover this afternoon.
While isolated thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out this
afternoon (especially along any residual outflow boundaries), the
main focus is what will occur with the approach/ arrival of the
disturbance aloft. The models indicate increased development that
should grow upscale into a MCS, with a subsequent track east/
southeast across at least part of west central Texas later this
evening and tonight. The 00Z NAM and TTU WRF show convective
development today across the Texas Panhandle, with growth into a MCS
and track southeast across at least the northern third of our ara.
This is where we have the highest PoPs for tonight. Could also have
thunderstorm development along a dryline in far west Texas, with
some of the convection entering our area from the west. Combination
of moderate to strong instability and sufficient vertical shear
favor severe weather potential for much of our area this afternoon
into tonight. The severe weather threats include large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

With much of the Big Country area having received recent heavy
rainfall, concerns are for additional heavy rain which could lead to
runoff/flooding. Precipitable water values are forecast to be around
1.5 inches, and with weak low-level jet development and steep mid-
level lapse rates, the factors favor sustaining a MCS well into the
overnight hours.

(Memorial Day through Saturday)

Our area will remain in southwest flow aloft through Tuesday night,
as the upper low and trough progress slowy east across the
southwestern state. Models indications are for additional embedded
disturbances to enter Texas, with moist and unstable air remaining
in place. With this setup, our area could have additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, with convective development during the
mid/late afternoons and expansion across our area during the
evening and nighttime hours. We are carrying 30-50 PoPs Monday
through Tuesday. Large scale lift with the incoming upper low and
trough will support more widespread coverage of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. A weak cold front progged
to move south across our area Wednesday into Wednesday night would
provide an additional focus.

Temperatures will be cooler following the frontal passage, and rain
chances should diminish Thursday night into Friday as drier air
filters in behind the slowly departing system.

Abilene  83  66  86  67 /  40  60  40  30
San Angelo  86  68  86  67 /  40  50  40  30
Junction  86  69  85  68 /  30  40  40  30


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