Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 310418
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1118 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015
Expect mostly clear skies overnight with light southerly winds.
Wind will veer south/southwest by mid-morning Monday at 6-10 kts,
eventually backing to the southeast during the afternoon hours. A
few diurnal showers/thunderstorms can`t be ruled out at KJCT and
KSOA, but low confidence will preclude mention in this TAF cycle.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
Updated zones and grids to remove Pops for tonight. Also, added
slight chance Pops to the southeast part of the area for Monday
afternoon. Looks like the upper level low will hang around for one
more day. The combination of weak mid and upper level ascent and
some instability will lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
A few showers and thunderstorms will continue for another 1-2
hours along the I-10 corridor. KJCT and KSOA may see brief rain
showers or a thunderstorm in the vicinity, but thunder is
unlikely on station. The cu field will gradually dissipate
overnight, redeveloping Monday afternoon. Expect light and
variable winds overnight, becoming south/southwest by mid-morning.
A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon,
basically south of a KSOA-KBBD line. Coverage should remain
limited, so no weather will be carried at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
(Tonight and Monday)
Weak upper low over southwest Texas is showing up well on water
vapor imagery, with the center located south of Ozona this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have developed today mainly
along and south of interstate 10, as the low continues to shift
slowly southeastward. Expect thunderstorms to continue into the
early evening mainly along and south of a San Saba to Ozona line.
Main threat from these storms will be lightning due to the dry
vegetation and potential for wildfire ignition.
Temperatures today have again been on the cool side with mostly
cloudy skies. Should see showers ending by midnight with overnight
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tomorrow should be dry as
the upper low heads farther to the southeast. Will see a warming
trend starting tomorrow with highs back into the mid 90s for most
areas, and less cloud cover expected.
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Not much change to forecast reasoning through the long term
period. By Tuesday, a weak upper low over east Texas will
reposition itself along the Louisiana Gulf Coast from mid
week into next weekend, with the upper ridge axis situated
over West Texas. The upper low will be far enough away to keep
any precipitation well south and east of the area, so the forecast
will remain dry through the extended period. High temperatures
through the end of the week will range from the lower 90s across
far southern counties, to the upper 90s across far northern
The GFS does weaken the ridge some by next weekend, as heights
begin lowering in response to an upper trough moving across the
Rockies. This should allow the 850mb thermal ridge to weaken
slightly next weekend, allowing temperatures to cool a couple of
degrees, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 90s. Overnight
lows will generally be in the lower and middle 70s through the
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 70 95 72 95 / 0 10 0 5
San Angelo 68 96 71 95 / 5 10 0 5
Junction 69 92 70 95 / 5 20 0 5