Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 272300

500 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

/00Z TAFS/

Stratus development is forecast during the early morning hours
across the Texas Hill Country, spreading into parts of West Central
Texas during the early morning hours. Uncertainty remains on how far
north the stratus will advance, but for now, MVFR ceilings were
introduced at KJCT and KSOA. South southwest winds will increase to
12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, by mid morning Friday. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.



(Tonight and Friday)

At mid-afternoon, a surface high pressure ridge extended from
Minnesota south into northeastern Texas. Southeast winds across our
area will veer to the south tonight as the surface ridge axis shifts
farther to the east. Temperatures will not drop off as much tonight,
especially across our northern, central and western counties, with
increased winds keeping the low levels mixed. Going with overnight
lows mostly in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with the colder readings
expected in low-lying areas and river valleys of our eastern and
southern counties.

Have a potential for some low cloudiness in the southern part of our
area early Friday morning. The models have been persistent with the
boundary layer moisture increase toward morning from the south.
Somewhat skeptical on the extent shown, as the models can be
overdone on the first night of low-level moisture return. With the
12Z GFS and NAM still indicating this, however, believe that some
adjustments to sky grids are needed. Carrying an increase in cloud
cover across the southern part of our area early Friday morning.
Expect a breakup of low clouds by mid-late morning.

South-southwest winds will increase and become gusty by late Friday
morning and continue through the afternoon, with lee side trough
development to our west and increased surface pressure gradient.
Given the pattern and considerable increase in 850mb temperatures,
going above MOS guidance for highs on Friday.

(Friday night through Thursday)

The long term remains dry with a temperature dip early next week.
Models indicate the upper-level pattern will evolve into a broad
ridge over the Rockies and central Plains through this weekend.
Temperatures will continue to warm, and by Sunday afternoon, highs
mainly in the 70 to 75 range look likely. Then, another cold front
moves south across Texas late Sunday night into Monday and brings
cooler temperatures to West Central Texas. After cooler-than-
normal highs for Monday, temperatures rebound, and by Thursday
afternoon, highs mainly in the mid 60s look reasonable. The ECMWF
this cycle does develop some QPF across our counties Wednesday and
Thursday; however, the ECMWF also indicates an upper-level ridge
just to our west for these two days. The GFS is dry for these two
periods. So, confidence is too low to introduce any weather for
these two periods.


Abilene  43  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   5   0
San Angelo  41  73  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  38  70  44  74  51 /   0   0   0   5   5




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