Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 072337
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
537 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

North winds of 5 to 10 knots overnight will increase to 8 to 14
knots, with higher gusts, late Monday morning. VFR conditions will
prevail at all sites through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Warm and breezy across West Central Texas this afternoon, with
temperatures having climbed into the 70s across portions of the
area. Initial surface trough extends across the southern sections of
the area, while the stronger cold front is pushing towards San
Angelo as of 21Z. This front will push across the remainder of the
area by shortly after sunset.

For tonight, a more sustained wind pattern will prevent the large
topographic-driven temperature deviations that we have seen the last
few night. Those areas where the south winds kept temperatures up
last night will be much cooler tonight, while the usual cold air
drainage locations that dropped into the teens and 20s this morning
will actually be a little warmer. Cooler tomorrow for most areas
with gusty north and northwest winds. Biggest issue both this
afternoon and Monday afternoon will be fire weather concerns.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)

Dry conditions will continue through the week, but should have an
increase in low-level moisture by next weekend.

An amplified early week upper level flow pattern will be
in place across the CONUS, with an upper ridge over the western
states, and an upper level low over the lower Great Lakes with a
deep trough over the eastern and southeastern part of the country.
With this pattern, our area will be in dry northwest flow aloft.

Clear and cold conditions will occur Monday night with ideal
radiational cooling, as surface high pressure settles south across
our area with light winds and rather dry air. A warmup will ensue
Tuesday as light winds become west and the airmass quickly
moderates.

The warming trend will continue Wednesday and into Thursday. With
increased surface pressure gradient, south-southwest winds will
increase and become gusty. A weak cold front is progged to enter
the far northern part of our area late Thursday afternoon. With
low-level thermal ridging pattern indicated ahead of this front,
highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s Thursday, with a
few locations possibly approaching 80 degrees.

Weak cold front will move south across our area Thursday night.
Temperatures on Friday are expected to be about 10 degrees cooler,
but still above normal, across the Big Country area along and north
of Interstate 20. Temperatures should only be a few degrees cooler
across the southern part of our area.

Late in the week, the southern portion of the aforementioned upper
level ridge will gradually shift east into Texas. Winds are progged
to switch around to the south Friday night, and then increase and
become gusty on Saturday. Temperatures will remain above normal.
However, as a result of increased low-level moisture by that time,
the diurnal temperature range will be reduced and relative humidity
values will be higher than what we are currently experiencing.

FIRE WEATHER...
Have seen elevated to near critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon, particularly across the Concho Valley which has seen
the warmest temperatures and strongest winds in the entire area.
These will continue through sunset this evening, with cooler
temperatures, higher RH values, and subsiding wind speeds easing
conditions somewhat. Critical fire weather conditions are likely
again on Monday afternoon across portions of the area, mainly
across the eastern sections of the Heartland and Big Country. This
area will see the strongest wind speeds, much closer to the potent
mid level jet streak pushing across North Central Texas. Dry air
mass remains in place, so the combination of strong winds and dry
conditions will continue. Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
the area generally east of a Haskell to Abilene to San Saba line.

If wind speeds end up stronger than currently forecasted, the
critical fire weather conditions will need to be shifted west to
include much more of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  31  59  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  32  62  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  31  60  25  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for Brown-Callahan-Coleman-
Haskell-Jones-San Saba-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

Daniels


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