Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 222339
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail through mid morning Thursday.
VFR conditions will return late Thursday morning and persist the
rest of the forecast period. Southerly winds will gust over 25
knots at times during the day Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Stratus deck covers the bulk of the forecast area this
afternoon...and outside of northwest AR and far northeast OK temps
have warmed back well into the 60s to near 70. Clouds should
remain through the overnight hours...and could see a few showers
later tonight across parts of northeast OK in zone of best
isentropic lift/lowest condensation pressure deficits.

Warmer conditions expected for tomorrow as south winds strengthen
ahead of a strong upper level low across the 4-corners region.
Low-level moisture will be on the increase as well...with a sharp
dryline developing across the TX panhandle. Model solutions remain
consistent in developing a band of showers/thunderstorms
along/ahead of the dryline Thursday night...with thunderstorms
sweeping into eastern OK late Friday morning and into western AR
during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast instability remains
marginal...but very strong layered shear (0-6km bulk shear values
around 70-80kts) will be supportive of wind damage with the line
of storms. Better chances of severe weather may develop across
portions of southeast OK...closest to the axis of higher low-level
moisture. The line of storms will exit the area Friday
evening...but there will be a continuing hail threat as the cold
core upper low moves across northeast OK.

Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning is looking generally
quiet...with another upper system poised to impact the region late
Sunday/Sunday night. Storms are expected to develop near the area
or just to our west later Sunday afternoon...with activity
spreading through entire forecast area into Sunday night.
Instability remains a bit in question...but forecast low-level
winds appear more favorable for potential tornadic
activity...especially across the southern half of the forecast
area. Stay tuned as we continue to iron out the details for late
in the weekend.

The active upper pattern continues into next week...with another
strong upper low likely impacting the region in the Wed/Thu
timeframe.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05


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