Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 232317
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions will persist through the prevailing period. Light
southerly winds overnight will increase by 16Z across the region
as strong pressure gradient develops ahead of next trough and
associated surface front. Strong upper level jet max across the
region will allow higher momentum winds to mix down to the surface
by early afternoon resulting in sustained winds of
20-25kts...with 25-30kt gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The fire weather potential Tuesday is the only real forecast
concern over the next week. Gusty southerly winds, unseasonably
warm temperatures, and low afternoon humidity values will result
in near Red Flag conditions across parts of eastern Oklahoma
Tuesday afternoon. The latest data suggests the dryline will be a
bit slower moving east, and this may keep the most critical fire
conditions just to our west, but it will be a close call.

A cold front is still on track to move across the forecast area
Tuesday night. Following its passage, seasonable temperatures with
little day to day change will be the rule through the weekend,
with a bit of a warming trend heading into the first of next
week. It will remain dry through the entire forecast period, and
likely beyond.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  72  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   37  72  40  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   44  72  37  52 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   35  72  31  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   34  67  36  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   36  67  37  48 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   40  71  35  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   37  69  33  46 /   0   0   0   0
F10   42  71  35  50 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   41  73  40  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11


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