Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 301045
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIFR FOG AND CIGS EXIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND
IMPROVING VSBYS BEHIND IT. EXPECT MOST SITES TO GO TO HI END MVFR
OR VFR BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATTERN SHIFT AWAY FROM THE HISTORICALLY WET WEATHER OF THE PAST
FEW WEEKS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AND WILL GIVE US ALL A CHANCE TO
DRY OUT. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO
WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER NEXT WEEK.

IN THE MEANTIME AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL WAVE CENTERED NEAR LZK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD
FRONT ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF
THE DAY. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING...THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
TODAY OUTSIDE OF NW ARKANSAS EARLY ON WILL BE SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER WHERE ONGOING MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SOME ELEVATED STORMS STILL MAY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK
THIS MORNING.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LARGE PORTION OF
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...LEAVING PART OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-40 AND
A FEW COUNTIES OF NW ARKANSAS. WILL ALSO TRIM BACK EXPIRATION TIME
TO 18Z WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

ALSO...SOME DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  54  75  56 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   76  58  76  59 /  30  10  10  10
MLC   73  56  75  55 /  30  10  10  10
BVO   71  50  74  51 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   70  52  71  51 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   70  53  70  53 /  30  10  10  10
MKO   72  55  74  56 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   70  53  72  53 /  20  10  10  10
F10   72  56  74  56 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   78  58  78  59 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ073-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ002-ARZ011-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30





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