640
FXUS61 KALY 091704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
104 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy conditions with seasonable temperatures
will prevail today, as some showers move in south of the Capital
District in the late afternoon. Showers will increase tonight
into Friday due to an upper level disturbance and low pressure
moving across the northern Mid Atlantic States. Cool conditions
continue into the weekend with isolated to scattered light
showers with an upper level low being over the Northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...Made some minor adjustments for the rest of the day
based on current obs/satellite imagery. Dry conditions remain in
place through the day, with high/mid level clouds increasing
from the south/west. Temperatures are much cooler than this time
yesterday in the 50s to lower 60s.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1017]...Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy
skies in place across much of the region. There are some breaks
in the clouds across southern and far eastern parts of the area,
so will reflect this in the forecast into the early afternoon
before additional clouds increase from the south/west. Made some
minor changes to temperatures based on current obs and trends.
Still looking at dry conditions through the day before starting
to increase during the evening.

A mid and upper level trough will be over southeast Canada this
morning. Zonal flow will be over NY and New England, as these
areas are in the mid and upper level jet confluent region. Low
pressure is organizing over the Ohio Valley. The flatter flow
will allow for weak ridging to take hold with drier conditions
for most of the day. It will be mostly cloudy with cooler temps
compared to yesterday.

The latest short range and ensemble guidance indicates drier
and slower trends for over running rainfall spreading back into
the forecast area. PoPs have been reduced until the late
afternoon south of the Capital District. The isentropic lift
increases with light rain spreading northward ahead of the low
pressure system and warm front. The H500 trough becomes
positively tilted over the OH Valley. The tightening low/mid
level thermal gradient will increase the FGEN. We have the
highest PoPs south of the I-90 corridor towards the early
evening. Highs will be seasonal with mid 50s to around 60F over
the hills and mtns and mid and upper 60s in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...A cool and chilly night is expected with the cyclonic
vorticity advection associated with the trough combined with
some isentropic lift will bring a period of rain for most of the
forecast area. Locations north and east of the Capital Region
may see more scattered showers early on. Sfc ridging near
southeast Quebec and the Gulf of St Lawrence may limit the
northward extent of the showers. Lows will be in the 40s with
some upper 30s over the southern Adirondacks and southern
Greens.

Friday into Friday night...The mid and upper level low becomes
neutral tilted with some Atlantic moisture tapped. The blocking
sfc anticylone remains upstream. Periods of showers will
continue over most of the forecast area. Low stratus and light
showers will will prevail east of the Hudson River Valley/Lake
George, but steadier rain is likely to the west. The low
pressure system passing to the south and its associated inverted
trough will focus the steadier rain over the western zones.
Temps will run below normal with mid 40s to lower 50s over the
higher terrain and 50s to around 60F in the valleys. These temps
will be a 5-10 degrees below normal. The showers taper Fri
night with the sfc wave moving into the western Atlantic. The
sfc anticyclone attempts to build in from near New Brunswick.
Cooling down low-levels may allow for some wet snowflakes over
the southern Greens/southern Dacks. Lows will be in the 40s with
some mid 30s to around 40F reading over the higher terrain.

The next northern stream short-wave approaches from the western
Great lakes Region and dives in across PA and NY for the opening
of the weekend. This feature will increase clouds and bring
some isolated to scattered showers late in the day. The upper
level trough trough becomes negatively tilted. The scattered
showers may become more widespread Sat night due to the
cyclonic vorticity advection. Temps may be slightly warmer than
Fri, but still below normal with 50s and lower 60s with cooler
readings over the mtns. Lows will be in the 40s once again with
some upper 30s over the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period opens Sunday morning with the region located
beneath the heart of an upper low while northerly low-level flow
about the western flank of a surface low over the Canadian Maritimes
advects unseasonably cool air into the region. Cyclonic flow will
yield persistent chances for rain showers through Sunday afternoon,
and temperatures will struggle to rise out of the upper 40s to 50s,
some 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Dry weather will briefly return Sunday night into Monday as the
upper low rapidly exits to the northeast while upper heights rise
locally. Cold overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s are
expected Sunday night, but developing mid- and upper-level flow out
of the southwest will see temperatures warm to near or above normal
values into the workweek. Afternoon highs Monday through Wednesday
will generally reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain,
and mid 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations, while nighttime lows
will dip into the mid 40s to mid 50s Monday through Wednesday nights.

A series of upper shortwaves will bring a return to unsettled and
showery weather Monday night and beyond. The first system looks to
pass over the region Monday night into Tuesday morning, followed by
a second, more potent wave later Tuesday into Wednesday as a surface
low develops over the Mid-Atlantic and tracks along the coast to the
northeast. There remains significant spread among numerical guidance
in the details of these systems, but the most likely outcome at this
lead time is scattered to numerous rain showers as each of these
systems pass near the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday, MVFR/low-VFR cigs expected to continue into the
morning, before improving to VFR by 15Z as cigs lift and/or coverage
lessens in response to diurnal mixing. VFR conditions then continue
into the evening with increasing coverage as mid- and high-level
clouds move in from the south. No vsby restrictions are expected
through 00Z Fri.

A warm front lifting over the region this evening into tonight will
see rain showers spread from south to north. Showers may begin as
early as 21Z Thu at POU and 00Z Fri at ALB/GFL/PSF, but will more
likely hold off until 00Z Fri at POU, and 03-06Z Fri at ALB/GFL/PSF.
Low-level cloud coverage will increase as rain showers onset, with
MVFR cigs expected at all terminals. Precipitation intensity is
expected to be light, resulting in MVFR vsbys within showers,
continuing through the remainder of the period to 12Z Fri.

Northwest to north winds at 5 kt or less will turn out of the north
to northeast and increase to 5-10 kt at all terminals for the
majority of the period. Flow will continue to turn out of the east
to northeast later, after 00-06Z Fri.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard