286
FXUS61 KALY 101709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
109 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers mainly south and west of the Greater Capital Region
this morning with diminish by this afternoon with mostly cloudy
and cool conditions continuing. An upper level low will bring
some isolated to scattered showers for the weekend with the most
widespread coverage late Saturday night through Sunday.
Temperatures will run below normal through the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...Showers developing across the western Adirondacks due
to some diurnal heating beneath an upper level trough. These
showers could expand/re-develop in some adjacent areas, so
there are chance PoPs mentioned across much of eastern NY
through this afternoon, with only slight chance in western New
England. More widespread showers will continue across the
western Mohawk Valley into parts of the eastern Catskills
associated with an inverted trough. Made some minor changes to
temperatures, otherwise no significant changes with this
update.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1023]...Radar indicating most of the spotty
showers are to the west of the Hudson Valley, except some in the
mid Hudson Valley. Additional isolated to scattered showers
should pop up across the northern half of the area with expected
breaks of sunshine resulting in limited heating/instability.
Most of the CAMs are showing this potential, so PoPs have been
increased slightly to mention scattered coverage from around
Albany north/west. Areas west of the Hudson Valley are expected
to get additional light showers from the inverted surface trough
positioned in central NY. Temperatures will be on the cool
side, although some areas from Albany north/east could reach the
lower 60s given some breaks of sunshine.

The sfc wave will move off into the western Atlantic and the
inverted trough will pivot westward with the showers more
numerous over central NY and the western portion of the county
warning area. Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail, though some
breaks of sun may occur north/northeast of Albany. Temps will
run below normal by 5 to 7 degrees with highs favored from a
MAV/MET blend with upper 50s to lower 60s in the valleys with
the warmest readings in the Upper Hudson Valley with upper 40s
to mid 50s over the hills and mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...A lull in the showers is likely except west of the
Hudson River Valley/Lake George, where isolated showers may
linger. The pause will be due to high pressure trying to build
in from the east and the initial trough of low pressure
weakening and departing with micro-ridging in between. However,
another short-wave disturbance will be digging in from Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Lows will be on the cool side with
40-45F readings in the lower elevations and mid 30s to around
40F over the higher terrain.

Saturday is looking like the better half of the weekend right
now with weak ridging ahead of the next short-wave re-
invigorating the mid and upper level low. Partly to mostly
cloudy conditions will prevail and some isolated to scattered
showers will begin to work in ahead of the disturbance and an
occluded front...especially west of the I-87 corridor. Temps
will still run below normal by 5 degrees or slightly more with
highs in the 60-65F range in the valleys and 50s over the
higher terrain. The highest PoPs were confined to areas mainly
west of I-87 corridor.

Saturday night into Sunday...the short-range guidance and
ensembles continue to show falling heights and an uptick in
cyclonic vorticity advection with the short-wave rotating around
the mid and upper level trough over NY and New England. Showers
will increase overnight into Sunday morning where PoPs are in
the high chance and likely range. The showers will become more
widespread in the late morning into the early afternoon.
Precipitation totals will range from a few hundredths to a few
tenths of an inch. The better forcing with the short-wave and
the sfc trough pivoting around another weak wave moving across
the northern mid Atlantic States will be west/southwest of the
Tri Cities. Lows Sat night will be in the 40s with some upper
30s over the higher terrain, while max temps could run close to
10 degrees below normal on Sunday with 50s, though some lower
60s are possible north of Albany in the Upper Hudson River
Valley again and some locations in the mtns may remain in the
40s.

The mid and upper level trough moves downstream of eastern NY
and western New England Sunday with the showers diminishing and
ending. It will be partly cloudy to mostly clear in a few
locations with high pressure building in from the south and
heights briefly rising aloft. Lows will range from the mid 30s
(southern Dacks/southern Greens) to lower/mid 40s across the
rest of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period looks to feature seasonable temperatures
with repeated chances for rain showers. Southwest flow in place
through the first half of the workweek will aid afternoon highs
in reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and mid 60s
to mid 70s at lower elevations each day, while overnight lows
dip to the mid 40s to mid 50s. A warm front will lift across the
region Monday afternoon to evening, bringing light rain
showers. Later on Tuesday and into Tuesday night, a deep upper
low tracking across southern Quebec will likely result in
additional rain with possible thunder as a cold front crosses
the region.

By Wednesday, a weakening upper low moving through the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys could support the development of a
coastal low along the aforementioned front, which may be close
enough for yet another round of rain, however forecast
confidence remains low at these lead times with significant
disparities among numerical guidance. Conditions may finally
trend drier by Thursday as upper troughing moves over the
Canadian Maritimes, potentially allowing upper ridging to build
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Ongoing light rain showers will continue
to affect primarily POU, but potentially ALB/PSF through this
morning. Thus far, vsbys have remained at 5SM or higher within
rain showers, so continued VFR vsbys are expected at ALB/POU/PSF
although brief MVFR vsbys are possible within heavier shower
elements. MVFR cigs look to continue at POU/PSF, with low-VFR
anticipated at ALB/GFL. GFL is likely to remain north of the
bulk of shower activity, and have excluded any mention of VCSH
through the morning.

Additional diurnal showers may increase in coverage this
afternoon around peak heating, with PROB30 mentions for -SHRA
with MVFR vsbys at ALB/GFL. Elsewhere, coverage of afternoon
showers is expected to be lower, with very limited impacts to
flying conditions. VFR conditions return to all terminals after
00Z Sat.

Light northeast to east winds at 5-10 kt are expected through
18Z Fri-00Z Sat, after which winds will turn out of the
southeast at 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Rathbun