Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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478 FXUS61 KALY 092331 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 731 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will gradually develop this evening into the overnight with the greatest likelihood from around the Capital District south and east, as low pressure passes to our south across the mid Atlantic region. Mostly cloudy, cool and showery conditions are expected Friday through the upcoming weekend, as a series of upper level disturbances move across the area. Temperatures will be below normal, with more clouds than sunshine. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lots of dry air over the region and rain is slow to push into our area. Rain will overspread the region through the night, but is just delayed a bit. Adjusted timing of the rain. Once the rain arrives, temperatures will fall to near wet bulb temperatures, which is near current forecast. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A wave of low pressure will track eastward along a west-east oriented surface front across the mid Atlantic states this evening, with an inverted surface trough extending north/west from the low into central NY. This will provide enough forcing for showers to develop from SW to NE this evening. Will mention likely to categorical PoPs from around the Capital District south/west. With surface ridging extending southward from Quebec into northern/eastern New England, there will be a dry layer to displace which could limit the showers from advancing farther north/east than the Capital District where we will continue to mention chance PoPs. While there is a cool air mass in place, the clouds/showers will result in lows fairly close to normal ranging from upper 30s in the coldest spots to upper 40s. Showers continue into Friday, as another wave of low pressure develops along the front in the mid Atlantic region, with the inverted surface trough expected to shift slightly westward. So this should result in the area of widespread showers gradually moving west mostly into central NY. So there will likely be drying for much of the area except for the western Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills where showers will linger the longest and take most of the day for to shift west. Still, with an upper level trough overhead there could be some light scattered showers elsewhere along with mostly cloudy skies. Highs should only range from the upper 40s to to around 60. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper level trough axis moves through during the first half of Fri night, then quickly shifts east off the coast overnight. So there may be isolated to scattered showers around through around midnight, with drying overnight due to some short wave ridging. Lows should be in the upper 30s to mid 40s under partly/mostly cloudy skies. On Sat it looks like we will be between systems, with short wave ridging in place ahead of a deepening upper low approaching from the Great Lakes. As the leading short wave associated with the trough moves in, chances for showers will gradually increase from NW to SE mainly during the afternoon to early evening hours. Most of the day looks dry for areas south/east of Albany. Temperatures will remain cool, with 850 mb temperature anomalies hovering near -1 to -2 STDEV. Highs look to mainly range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. As the upper trough moves in Sat night, scattered showers are expected to develop again. The showers should be mainly light. With mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures will be similar to recent nights ranging from upper 30s to upper 40s. An associated surface wave will track from west/central PA Sat night to near the Delmarva Sun morning. Another inverted surface trough will extend north/west from the wave into central NY during the day Sun. This provide additional chances for showers, although the more widespread showers should be in closer proximity to the trough in the western part of the area such as the western Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills. It will be another cool day with mostly cloudy skies. Highs range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. The upper low shifts east off the coast Sun night, with some short wave ridging moving in. This should result in clearing skies with lows a bit cooler with upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Temperatures finally look to moderate to near normal levels on Mon. A warm front approaching from the west may bring some showers during the afternoon. The pattern is then expected to turn more unsettled from Tue through Thu, although forecast confidence decreases with regards to details. A warmer/seasonable air mass should be in place by Tue, with a SW flow aloft over region and an upper low tracking east across central Quebec. At the surface, a cold front may bring showers and some thunderstorms. On Wed, the front pushes south, but another upper level trough is expected to move east across the southern Appalachians, which could spawn a surface cyclone near the old front. This system may get close enough for some rainfall, but there are differences in the guidance with regards to storm track/evolution. Will continue to mention chance PoPs for now. Forecast confidence remains low into Thursday, although the latest guidance indicates it may end up being on the drier side due to possible ridging. Temperatures expected to remain near normal. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions this evening with ceilings well above 10000 feet. Rain will overspread the region through the night and some MVFR visibilities in showers are expected after 06Z and through about 12Z-15Z. Ceilings will lower to MVFR as well, during the intervals of steadier showers. There may be little if any rain at KGFL as the rain tracks south of that area but including PROB30. Coverage of showers will decrease between 12Z-15Z at KALB and KPSF but including VCSH through Friday afternoon at those sites. The coverage of showers looks to be the greatest at KPOU and more steady intervals of showers will likely last all day Friday at KPOU. Ceilings and visibilities should stay MVFR at KPOU all day, while ceilings could lift to just into the VFR range just above 3000 feet by 19Z-20Z at KGFL, KALB and KPSF. Light north to northeast winds at 6 Kt or less tonight, but a few gusts to 15 Kt at KPSF and KPOU. Then, northeast to southeast winds at 6 Kt or less Friday morning and afternoon. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...NAS