Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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053
FXUS63 KARX 250711
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
210 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Upper level trough/closed 500 mb low sits over the southern plains
early this morning, progged to take a somewhat slow trek northeast
into the eastern great lakes by Sunday night. The better
frontogenetic/thermodynamic forcing has shifted east, as has the
upper level jet support. The stronger low level jet/moisture
transport has also moved off to the east. All that said, still have
the upper level low and its various ripples/spokes of energy to
rotate across the region for today and Sunday. NAEFS pw anomalies
still +1 to +2. Plenty of saturation to play with. Expect the
showers to persist, especially tonight through the better part of
Sunday. Would normal expect minor additional accumulations over the
next couple days with the weak forcing, but the anomalously moist
airmass, could still result in 1/4 to 1/2 inch amounts for some.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Variable pattern at the moment for next week with the
northern/southern branches of the upper level flow both coming into
play......or not. Southern stream looks fairly active, with both the
GFS and the EC moving at least two 500 mb troughs from the desert
southwest to the oh valley/great lakes regions. They differ in
timing and placement. Latest EC more aggressive compared to some
previous runs with bringing a shortwave into the region for Thu -
resulting in a wet day. The GFS is south. On the otherhand, the GFS
would suggest more action locally from the northern branch, dropping
a shortwave trough across the northern plains-upper mississippi
river valley Fri night-Sat. The GFS...stays north. Volatile,
springish pattern which will likely swing back and forth in their
potential solutions/outcomes until we get closer to the actual day.
Will let the consensus continue to detail the pcpn chances.

As for temps, at or above normal for late March still looks on track
for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Lower stratus encompasses the region and won`t go much of anywhere
the next 24 hours, as low pressure slowly drifts by to the south.
Overall conditions will remain IFR for RST with a period of LIFR
possible later tonight into Saturday morning, while LSE likely
teeters on the edge between IFR and MVFR. A period of light rain
is expected for LSE this evening and again into Saturday
afternoon, while RST remains mainly dry, save for perhaps a little
drizzle at times. Winds will remain steady from the northeast,
becoming increasingly gusty for all areas later tonight into
Saturday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...Lawrence



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