Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 291741
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WILL INITIALLY LEAN ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...THEN TRANSITION INTO A BLEND OF THE 29.00Z GLOBAL
MODEL SUITE FOR TONIGHT GIVEN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT.

WEAKENING 500 HPA OCCLUDED LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY
GIVEN AN UPSTREAM KICKER CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS IS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WHILE LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF I-94 WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER...
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY. NEAR SURFACE
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST LATER TODAY USHERING IN DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AROUND 850 HPA
GETTING TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENT INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH. WHILE SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...COOL CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN
THERMAL CUMULUS QUICKLY FILLING IN THESE HOLES. ALL SAID...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO FINALLY MOVE INTO AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WITH AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHERE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 30S. OTHERWISE...LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEGINS TO
UNDER CUT THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE...MOVING ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION ON SATURDAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ALL ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL SOUTH ACROSS MO...BUT NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING WING OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM AIR ADVECTION/
FRONTOGENESIS LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS WITH THE LAST
SYSTEM...PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HUDSON BAY SURFACE HIGH NOSING SOUTH ACROSS
MN/WI. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF
ACCUMULATING RAIN WITH THE GFS/GEM KEEPING SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-90 WHEREAS THE NAM/ECMWF BRING THEM AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-94
CORRIDOR. GIVEN OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET-UP...PREFER THE DRIER
SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NOTHING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO AROUND A
HALF AN INCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RAINFALL DEPENDENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH TO AROUND 60 DEGREES NORTH OF I-90.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DOMINANT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW KEEPING FORECAST
DRY. SOME DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...BUT WITH
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN AIR MASS...EXPECT DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY
OSCILLATING IN THE 60S WITH LOWS MAINLY THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. PLAN ON SCATTERED CUMULUS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BEFORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS AND EDGES NORTHWARD. PLAN ON
EAST WINDS OF 13 TO 16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE RISING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CRESTS WITHIN
1-5 FEET OF FLOOD STAGE ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
MAY. THOSE WITH INTERESTS OR CONCERNS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS AND THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE



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