Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 022333
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
FOG TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CLARK
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR A BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE...NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. STORMS FURTHER TO WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AN
DUNN COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS AS THEY
PROGRESS EAST INTO CLARK COUNTY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
EXIT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF
THE CLOUDS HOLD STRONG THE FOG MAY NOT BE AS THICK. SOMETHING TO
MONITOR CLOSELY TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY THEN HANGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MAY INTERACT WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ATTEMPT TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BUT NOT REALLY BUYING INTO THOSE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
RIDGING EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT THEN TURNS SOUTHWEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. THE STRONGER FORCING LOOKS TO MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. A LITTLER EARLY TO
SAY WHETHER OR NOT THERE WOULD BE SEVERE STORMS BUT ITS LOOKING
LIKE THEY ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE REALLY START
TO LOSE CAPE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT
FEW MODEL RUNS. COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE
WILL ALLOW THE SKIES TO CLEAR OUT VERY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE
CONCERN BECOMES WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES BUT THE WINDS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION. THE SURFACE WINDS AT BOTH
SITES SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS OR A LITTLE
LESS BUT THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD START OUT AROUND
25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS VERY
LATE. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL CREATE TOO MUCH MIXING TO ALLOW
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH LOW VISIBILITIES TO FORM BUT MAY CAUSE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP INSTEAD...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH SOME
FOG FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL ADD AT LEAST A SCATTERED
STRATUS LAYER FOR KLSE. ONCE THE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS CLEAR OUT
THURSDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR WILL MAYBE SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



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