Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 220217
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1017 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the coast will cause increased
moisture in a southeast to south flow. However, the moisture
will remain shallow because of upper ridging and limit
thunderstorm coverage. The thunderstorm chance will increase
Wednesday with developing upper troughing and ahead of an
associated cold front. The front will be in the area Wednesday
night and thursday. It will remain hot ahead of the front
through Wednesday with afternoon heat index values peaking
around 100.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Previous isolated showers now dissipated, and expecting
remainder of the overnight to be dry. Nocturnal cooling and high
low-level moisture may lead to some patchy fog but coverage may
remain limited due to some higher thin clouds. Overnight low
temperatures are forecast in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure aloft over the Southeast U.S. will weaken on
Tuesday and give way to an approaching upper level trough and
associated cold front. Precipitable water values will increase
ahead of the cold front which increases the chance of showers
and thunderstorms through Thursday. SPC places a Day 3 Marginal
Risk of severe weather across northeastern SC Wednesday through
Wednesday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Canadian surface high pressure will push into the region Friday
and into the weekend for cooler and drier conditions. A warm
front may lift back into central South Carolina and east central
Georgia by Monday for a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low levels have continued to moisten slightly with a SE low
level wind. Dewpoints continue to trend higher. Guidance
indicating some fog and stratus potential late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Relatively little change expected
Tuesday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected in
the afternoon and evening, favoring southern and eastern areas
near a sea breeze boundary.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions to ceilings and
visibilities will be possible through Thursday in mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms, and mainly late night/early
morning fog/stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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