Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 042251 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH
INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
MORE NORMAL SUMMERLIKE REGIME OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HELPED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE BOUNDARY AND SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE THEM FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THERE IS ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS TIME...DRIVEN MY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE 21Z
RUN OF THE HRRR KEEPS MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND LIFTS
IT NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GA AND INTO THE UPSTATE BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP MONITORING ITS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...REMAINING JUST TO OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND LIFTING AND MOVING ENE THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY
NT/MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION. UPPER HIGH TO THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS
APPEARS WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 TROUGHING AND AN H85 JET WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED THE
GREATER CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
AND NORTH OF THE TERMINALS IN THE SHORT TERM. DESPITE THE LOSS OF
HEATING THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE H85
JET. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING STRONG HEATING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. CONTINUED WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC



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