Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 311813
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
AND STALL ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
EAST COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL IN THE MIDLANDS
TONIGHT.

AIR MASS NEAR THE FRONT MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND SOUTH. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH
MIDLANDS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...REDUCED POPS CENTRAL AND
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE
BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY APPEARS
DRIER SO REDUCED POPS...SHOWERS SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF AREA WITH
FRONT/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY LIKELY NEAR COAST AND AIR MASS DRY AND
CAPPED. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS EASTWARD AND A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AT 18Z WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE MIDLANDS AND STALL. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE OGB AREA AROUND 21Z. LOW CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION WILL
AFFECT AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM. AREA COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MODELS INDICATE MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB...SO HAVE INCLUDED FOG 08Z-13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



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