Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 060650
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
150 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX AS THE RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
USED THE COLDER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR
MASS WITH SNOW COVER UPSTREAM. STRONG NET RADIATION COOLING
SUPPORTS THE COLDER GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70
SATURDAY. STRONG NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WIND SUPPORTS THE
COLD GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH THE RIDGE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST DURING MUCH OF THE REMAINING
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDGE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF AGS/DNL AT 07Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF IFR THROUGH
07Z WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 15Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MVFR CIGS REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-16Z. VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$





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