Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 250759
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
359 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will linger in the forecast area
through Tuesday. Deeper moisture ahead of the front has shifted
east of the forecast area. The pressure ridge behind the front
will extend through the region Wednesday with the front farther
off the coast Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The models show the slow moving front lingering in the forecast
area through tonight. Convergence along the front with cooling
associated with the upper trough plus diurnal heating supports
thunderstorms. However, expect limited coverage as the models
display deeper moisture shifting east of the area. The high-
resolution models display little coverage. Forecasted chance
pops with higher values in the southeast section closer to
deeper moisture. Cooling aloft associated with upper troughing
should help support moderate instability. The NAM and GFS
indicate surface-based LI values -6 to -8. This instability plus
lowering wet bulb zero heights associated with the upper
troughing indicates a possibility of damaging wind and hail.
Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models show the front lingering in the region through
Tuesday. Deeper moisture is forecast to remain ahead of the
upper troughing and off the coast. The thunderstorm chance
should remain low but may increase somewhat Tuesday with cooling
aloft associated with a sharpening upper trough. The models
indicate h5 temperatures lowering to around -12 C Tuesday.
Forecasted pops 10 to 20 percent, close to the guidance
consensus. The greater chance should be in the southeast section
closer to deeper moisture and greater convergence associated
with weak surface troughing. The temperature guidance was close.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The models have been consistent displaying dry ridging
dominating Wednesday. Low-level moisture should increase later
in the week with an onshore flow being directed into the area
associated with the ridge shifting farther off the coast. Upper
ridging will likely keep this moisture shallow. The GFS and
ECWMF MOS have pops less than 10 percent Wednesday, 10 to 20
percent Thursday, and 20 to 40 percent Friday and Saturday.
Expect temperature near or a little below normal with relatively
low humidities early in the period returning back to about
normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally low confidence forecast during the early morning hours
with a cold front moving into the area.

Area of showers associated with a cold front will move across
portions of the Midlands and CSRA early this morning. The showers
may affect the TAF sites before sunrise. Models are inconsistent on
timing and extent of CIG/VSBY restrictions. Should see deterioration
to MVFR conditions as showers ahead of the front moves into the TAF
sites. The Cold front will slowly cross this morning...then stall
over the eastern Midlands or Lowcountry of SC later today. Fog may
be an issue given abundant low level moisture and light wind. Should
see VFR conditions returning to all TAF sites in the 12Z-14Z time-
frame. Could see afternoon convection develop at OGB given the
proximity to the front but coverage will be isolated to widely
scattered so will not mention in the TAF at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions
expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.