Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 181445
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
945 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be situated off the Southeast Coast today
with a stalled front just south of the area promoting a slight
chance of rain. There is a better chance of rain on Wednesday as
a stronger weather system moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Zonal flow aloft will continue across the region today with a
subtropical high over the Caribbean. Surface high pressure will
be offshore promoting southwesterly low level flow. A stalled
boundary will be in the southern portion of the area. Models
show a tight moisture gradient from north to south with PWATS
around 0.8 inches in the northern portion of the area and around
1.5 inches south. Have lowered this mornings pops a bit to
only indicate slight chance pops across southern portions of the
area a dry forecast north. Above normal temperatures are
still expected today despite persistent cloud cover, in the
lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weak upper ridging over the area through the night, with a weak
surface boundary off to the south of the cwa. Not much in the
way of any upper energy moving through, and have generally gone
with a dry forecast tonight and into Tuesday as the region will
be between upper systems. By Tuesday evening and into Wednesday,
a stronger area of low pressure aloft will be moving eastward
from the Gulf Coast states along the current surface front
across the region. Rain chances will be on the increase Tuesday
night, becoming categorical by Wednesday as the surface low
moves into the area. The low moves east Wednesday night and
drier air will move in behind the exiting low. Thursday into
Thursday night will be dry. Temperatures through the period
will be above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. A surface wedge
flow out of the northeast will setup over the region on Thursday,
keeping temperatures that day only in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure aloft will be across the area into Friday with
dry weather expected. Another strong cold front is forecast to
move towards the region over the weekend ahead of a deepening
upper trough over the middle of the country. The surface front
may become parallel to the upper flow over the Southeastern US,
stalling out somewhere near the region early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions expected at times throughout the TAF period due to
a frontal boundary in the area.

High pressure will remain offshore today with a stalled
boundary to the south. With increased moisture in the southern
portion of the area today, there is slight chance of showers
through this evening at the TAF sites, but chance is still too
low to include in current issuance. Stratus persists at all
sites, with ceilings IFR/MVFR. MAV/MET guidance differs on if
and when stratus will improve at the terminals this afternoon so
confidence is low, but have showed improvement during the
afternoon with restrictions returning overnight. Models
indicate potential for fog/stratus again Tuesday morning which
appears reasonable, so have included mention of MVFR stratus.
Fog may be limited by a 25 knot low level jet. Surface winds
through the period will be southwesterly at 7 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Boundary will remain stalled across
the region with rain and associated restrictions at times
through the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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