Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 190050
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.

SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.