Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 271339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. TODAY, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT SUFFICIENTLY THAT
EVEN THE LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOT DEVELOPED. BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW,
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY, WITH SOME OF THE INTERIOR AREAS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT RH IN THE AFTERNOON. TOGETHER
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, IT MAY RAISE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WITH ON GOING FIRES IN THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
GET NEAR KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB



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