Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 300001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
801 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Convection initiated over in the interior of south Miami Dade
County late in the afternoon and progress westward into Collier,
Hendry and Glades. Expect this activity to exit the forecast
area in the next hour or two clearing conditions for the rest of
the night. Lingering moisture and smoke from the wildfires out
west could develop some areas of patchy fog tonight. Red Flag
Warning has been cancelled at this time as relative humidity
values have improved. The rest of the forecast remains on track
at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017/

Today into Tuesday, upper level ridge still remains over the
region keeping mostly dry conditions across South Florida. Early
12Z MFL sounding indicates abundant dry air in the mid levels and
some low level moisture still lingering over the area. Potential
for a few showers will be possible mainly along the interior and
west but the main concern will be the hot temperatures across
the area. High temperatures will exceed the 90s across South
Florida with a min still remaining in the mid to upper 70s along
the east coast metro area and low 70s interior and west. A few
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoons, mainly over the
interior where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes collide. There
will be a slight better chance of activity Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday through Monday: Upper level ridge gradually shifts east
into the Atlantic while surface high will also weaken and slide
to the east, putting South Florida into a moist, southerly flow
pattern. Precipitable waters values will be on the rise this week
ranging from 1.3 to 1.8 inches by the end of the week with
instability increasing and mid level temperatures near average for
this time of the year. Light to moderate east to southeast flow
continues through the week which will allow for sea-breeze
collisions and subsequent outflow boundaries/interactions.
Therefore, the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on
the increase through the week. Model guidance show rain chances
will increase mainly interior counties at this time. Temperatures
during the long term will be regulated by precipitation, so maxima
will return to near normal near 90F, with minima remaining above
normal in the 70s.

East to southeast flow will gradually become more dominant
early this week, though speeds should generally be 15 KT or less.
Seas remain around 4 feet or less through the week. Thunderstorm
chances will increase for the latter half of the week.

Red Flag Warning continues in effect for Glades County until
early evening with relative humidity values below 40 to 30
percent. For Collier and Hendry County, the 4 hour threshold is
unlikely to be reached, and winds appear to be on track to remain
below 10 mph. Conditions will continue to be closely monitored. On
Tuesday, moisture will increase some, so at this point it looks
like relative humidity thresholds will not be met after today
through the remainder of the week.

West Palm Beach  76  90  77  89 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  89 /  10  20  10  10
Miami            79  91  79  90 /  20  20  10  20
Naples           75  91  75  92 /  20  30  30  40



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