Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 250604
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
204 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions should prevail through the period,
although relatively brief periods of restrictions are likely
in/near showers and thunderstorms which will be most numerous
during the afternoon. Expect some pre-dawn showers along the
Atlantic coast, so VCSH included there, then a lull in activity
until close to noon, when VCTS is in place. Convection will wane
after sunset, but a few lingering showers warrant VCSH attm.

Light/calm winds overnight will become east around 10 knots by
late morning /WNW at KAPF/, then calm again after sunset.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Summer continues to hold over southern Florida with light easterly
flow, decent amounts of tropical moisture, and a warm airmass
holding over the region. Convection will continue to follow the
diurnal pattern we have seen the last few days with overnight
showers and storms over the waters, pushing ashore in the morning
along the east coast, and then more coverage developing inland as
the sea breezes form, push in, and collide. This general pattern
will continue through the end of the weekend into early next week
without much change. This pattern will continue to support the
chance for an isolated strong to severe storm or two each day
mainly with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and wind gusts to 45
mph being the primary concerns.

By midweek, a frontal system will push across the United States
and enter the eastern portion of the country. As the mid-level
impulse amplifies southward into the southern Appalachian
mountains by Thursday morning, the corresponding surface front
will push into the peninsula of Florida. While the relatively
drier and cooler air behind the front will bring a taste of autumn
to much of the southeastern United States, it does not currently
appear that this system will have what it takes to deliver that
feeling much further south than northern Florida. So the story of
summer will continue for at least the next week across South
Florida with warm temperatures, showers, and thunderstorms in the
forecast.

MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will continue across the regional waters
through the weekend with regional winds light and variable at
times. Gulf seas will be around 1 foot or maybe less and Atlantic
seas 2 feet or less during the weekend. Weak high surface pressure
is forecast to build into the region early next week with easterly
to southeasterly winds forecast.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  89  76  88  75 /  50  40  60  60
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  89  77 /  50  50  60  60
Miami            91  76  90  76 /  60  50  60  50
Naples           91  75  88  75 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...02/RAG
MARINE...02/RAG
AVIATION...23/SK



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