Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 220819
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
419 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED A MOISTURE RICH
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE STREAMING IN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. AN H5 SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH DECREASING COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. BELIEVE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ENHANCING LIFT. ALSO WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK SURFACE FLOW...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD FURTHER ENHANCE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME BY
TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A STEADY
STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE UPPER RIDGE
INCHING FURTHER WEST AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
WEEKEND TIME FRAME...POSSIBLY BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA.



&&

.AVIATION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE SITE. HAVE KEPT THE VCTS WORDING
IN THE TAFS, WITH ONLY ADJUSTING THE TIMING, MAKING IT A COUPLE
HOURS LATER. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS TODAY BEFORE EASTERLY WINDS RETURN ON TUESDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  85  76 /  60  50  70  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  86  78 /  60  50  70  30
MIAMI            87  77  86  78 /  50  50  70  30
NAPLES           86  75  86  74 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI


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