Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 291952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...


THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  75  89 /  20  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  90 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            77  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.