Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 291359 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
959 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
Deep-layered high pressure is anchored off the Atlantic coast of
Florida this morning. Light southeasterly flow and weak sea breeze
circulations are expected today. Drier air will again help limit
overall coverage, but high resolution guidance is hinting that
activity has a better chance of impacting the major population
areas today compared to previous days. Thunderstorms could produce
gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. The thermal profile aloft
is not conducive for hail today but small hail is possible with
a strong storm.
The primary threat for today is the heat index values that will
reach into the mid 100s. Anyone outdoors should stay hydrated and
take frequent cooling breaks to fight off heat illness. The light
flow and humid surface airmass over the region are contributing
factors to the high heat index values.
The forecast appears to be in good order and no changes are
expected with this update.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 756 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016/
Morning showers could transition to afternoon thunderstorms. Best
chances for impact from convection are at APF. Generally light
easterly wind though the Gulf sea breeze may be able to push past
APF today. Variable gustiness can be expected around convection
and any terminal impacted directly could see MVFR or brief IFR
conditions from heavy rain. Convection should decrease overnight
with light, variable winds at most sites.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016/
Fairly typical summertime weather is in store for South Florida
through the forecast package. A bermuda high will remain in
control over the flow across South Florida. The high will
fluctuate some in strength, allowing the wind to very between east
to southeast. Looking at the daytime temperature gradient between
the temps over the water and the temps inland, there is maybe
enough to get a weak sea breeze going, at least along the east
coast, enhanced by the easterly flow. So, most of the convection
that occurs today, should be triggered in the interior due to
diurnal heating, and push off to the west coast in the easterly
flow. Most of the convection should be garden variety type
thunderstorms, but also can never rule out some isolated strong
storms in through the day.
The sounding from last evening did show a fairly high freezing
level, sitting at over 16k ft. The PWATs are around 2 inches.
There also does not appear to be any significant cap in the
sounding. So, would expect a slight chance, to a low end chance
of showers and maybe a thunderstorm along the South Florida
Atlantic coast. With the heating in the interior, and plenty of
moisture, the main area of development looks to be in the
interior. The sounding also showed CAPE of 3784 J/kg And, as
mentioned previously, any showers and/or storms that develop
should push to the west to northwest.
Again, this pattern looks to be in place for the time being. There
may be some fluctuations in the day to day setup, as the Bermuda
high fluctuates in strength. But, expect diurnal showers and
storms in the interior and gulf coast each day into the middle of
next week. The main threat from the convection will be lightening,
with some possible threats of ponding of water in the typical
areas to see flooding, which are areas with poor drainage.
Besides a chance of showers and thunderstorms through at least
the middle of next week, the South Florida waters should be
relatively quiet into the middle of next week. The wind may
fluctuate between now and then, causing the seas to build to
around 4 ft at times. Also, with no swell, and the wind not being
very strong, the risk of rip currents is low for the Atlantic and
Gulf beaches today.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 93 79 92 80 / 30 10 10 40
Fort Lauderdale 92 80 91 79 / 30 10 20 50
Miami 93 80 92 78 / 40 10 20 40
Naples 90 77 91 76 / 30 10 40 30