Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 300045 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
845 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Depression number 9 was located over the southeast Gulf Of Mexico
this evening...and is forecast to move to the west northwest
tonight. This weather pattern will keep a south to southeast wind
flow over South Florida tonight keeping the deep tropical moisture
in place. The 00Z MIA sounding was showing the pwat values to be
around 2.4 inches which is near the maximum pwat values for this
date. Therefore, scattered to numerous showers and even some
thunderstorms will continue to affect South Florida tonight. Any
thunderstorms that do move through the area will also be capable
of producing heavy rainfall, due to the very high pwat values over
the area.

The winds over the most of South Florida waters this evening have
been from the southeast around 15 knots, except over the offshore
Gulf waters where they been around 20 knots. The winds will
continue to increase to 15 to 20 knots while swinging slowly to a
southerly direction, except around 20 knots with gusts up to 30
knots over the offshore Gulf waters. Therefore, SCEC will continue
for most of South Florida waters tonight, except for SCA
conditions for the Gulf waters. There is also a High Risk Of Rip
Currents for the east coast beaches of South Florida tonight.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 758 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Intermittent showers and storms will continue through much of the
forecast period as Tropical Depression Nine sits over the Gulf of
Mexico. Gusty winds will continue, especially around convection.
Brief periods of MVFR cigs are possible near bands of storms,
with heavy rain possibly bringing IFR or LIFR vsbys briefly to
impacted terminals.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016/

.WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
Tropical Depression Nine located over the southeastern Gulf Of
Mexico is forecast by NHC to move to the west-northwest tonight
before moving more northward on Tuesday into Wednesday as a
Tropical Storm into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will allow
for the steering flow over South Florida to swing from a southeast
direction tonight to more of a southerly direction on Tuesday into
Wednesday bringing in deep tropical moisture to the area from the
Caribbean Sea. This will keep likely to occasional showers and
thunderstorms ongoing tonight into Tuesday night with likely PoPs
on Wednesday over South Florida. The PWats will also be in the 2.2
to 2.4 inches over South Florida late tonight into Wednesday
leading to the possibility of heavy rainfall late tonight into
Wednesday. Therefore, heavy rainfall wording will be added to the
zones for South Florida during this time frame. More on the heavy
rainfall amounts in the hydro section below.

LONG TERM...
NHC is forecasting the possible tropical storm to move northeast
across North Florida sometime Thursday night into Friday morning,
before moving it northeast across the northwest Atlantic waters
this weekend. High pressure will also build into South Florida
from the Bahamas this weekend. This weather pattern will allow
for the steering flow to be from the southwest direction late this
week before becoming light and variable this weekend. Therefore,
the PWat values will be slowly decreasing late this week and
should be less than 2 inches by this weekend. Therefore, scattered
to numerous PoPs will continue over South Florida late this week
into this weekend with the focus over the northern areas of South
Florida.

MARINE...
The winds will be south/southeast tonight swinging more to a
southerly direction on Tuesday into Wednesday, before going more
southwest late this week. The wind speeds will be 15 to 20 knots
tonight through Thursday over most of South Florida waters.
The only exception is over the Gulf waters where the speeds will
be 20 to 25 knots tonight, due to the closeness of Tropical
Depression Nine. The seas will be 3 to 5 feet over the Atlantic
waters through Wednesday night. For the gulf side, the seas will
be 2 to 4 feet tonight increasing to 3 to 5 feet by Tuesday
afternoon. Tides this afternoon have already been running higher
than predicted and we will have to monitor forecast trends with
this system over coming days for potential coastal impacts along
the Gulf coast, particularly for Collier County.

Therefore, an SCEC will be up for all of South Florida waters,
except for the Gulf Waters where an SCA will be in place for
tonight. There is also a High Risk Of Rip Currents for the East
Coast Beaches of South Florida through tonight. The threat of Rip
Currents should continue along the east coast beaches on Tuesday
and also increase along the west coast beaches of South Florida.

HYDROLOGY...
With the high PWat values over South Florida late tonight into
Tuesday, heavy rainfall is possible over South Florida. Some of
the showers and thunderstorms could even train over the same
areas. At this time, it looks like 2 to 4 inches are possible over
the east coast metro areas increasing to 4 to 6 inches over the
west coast areas of South Florida through Thursday night. However,
the amounts could be higher with any training of showers and
thunderstorms that do set up over South Florida. If this trend
continues, then a Flood Watch maybe needed for all or portions of
South Florida in later forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  87  77  89 /  80  80  60  70
Fort Lauderdale  77  86  77  89 /  80  80  60  60
Miami            77  87  77  89 /  80  80  60  60
Naples           78  86  79  87 /  60  80  60  70

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



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