Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 040001
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
801 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATER TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A TSTORM MAINLY ALONG THE
MIAMI-DADE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AS SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE INLAND...THEY COULD GET CLOSE
TO THE TERMINALS SO MAINTAINED VCTS THEN. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER REGIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THERE WILL BE SOME DAY TO DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN ITS STRENGTH AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF ITS AXIS AS
SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, A DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS IN PLACE WITH
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR
AND EVENTUALLY THE NAPLES AREA MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. THE LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING A COUPLE OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS NOT
EVIDENT ON THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING AND THIS ALSO IS INDICATIVE OF A
LESS HAZY SKY APPEARANCE WHICH THE NAVAL AEROSOL MODEL WAS SHOWING
THE SAHARAN DUST TO BE THINNING OUT TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL NUDGE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A TAD TO
THE SOUTH. AS THIS OCCURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS A SHOWING A MORE
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS A RESULT CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGIONS. WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP, THERE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTION MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST OF
NORTHWEST COLLIER COUNTY AND ALSO EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MODEST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN ON SATURDAY SO THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THEN DRIER AIR ALOFT
WORKS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOR LESS ACTIVITY. SO THIS AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME ON MONDAY BUT THEN THE
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE
TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A TUTT LIKE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE
SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND PWAT MAY DROP WELL BELOW CLIMO
AVERAGES. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW SO
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST COAST. ANOTHER PLUME OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALSO AIDING TO DECREASE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

MARINE...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 4 FEET BOTH OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  79  91 /  10  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  80  91 /  10  30  10  20
MIAMI            79  91  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  92  76  93 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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