Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 240011
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
711 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
No changes needed to be made to the previous forecast. Winds have
started to diminish across South Florida and they will continue to
do so as the night progresses. Temperatures tonight are expected
to drop to near 50 degrees across interior sections to near 60
degrees across the East Coast Metro areas. Dry conditions are
expected across the region on Tuesday as high pressure continues
to move in.

&&

.AVIATION...
The winds will be westerly tonight into Tuesday with speeds of 10 to
15 knots tonight decreasing to around 10 knots on Tuesday.
The weather will also remain dry along with VFR conditions at all of
South Florida taf sites through Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017/

..Gale Warning in effect through this evening for Gulf and
Atlantic waters...
..Wind Advisory in effect through early this evening...

DISCUSSION...
The strong upper level trough will continue to move east
northeastward from the Southeastern United States into the Mid
Atlantic by Tuesday. Winds tonight will start to slowly subside
and they will continue to subside through the day on Tuesday. Any
leftover showers in the area will dissipate quickly this evening
as drier and cooler air continue to work into the region.

High pressure will continue to build into the region on Wednesday
and Thursday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in
bringing another cold front through the region Thursday night into
Friday. This front will not have a lot of moisture to work with
and there will only be a slight chance of showers over the
Atlantic Waters as it pushes through.

The frontal boundary will then start to move northward into the
region on Saturday night and Sunday. This will allow for scattered
showers to move back into the region on Sunday and Monday.
The latest extended models are starting to show some instability
in the mid levels of the atmosphere late this weekend. If the
trends continue, then thunderstorms might have to be added in
later forecasts for late this weekend. Latest computer model
guidance are now showing the possibility of heavy rain on Sunday
and Sunday night due to a mid to upper level disturbance moving
from the Gulf of Mexico into South Florida. We will have to
continue to monitor the trends on the possibility of heavy
rainfall for late this weekend as the week progresses.

MARINE...
The winds across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will slowly begin to
decrease tonight and the Gale Warning will drop to an SCA across
the Gulf waters during the evening hours, and then across the
Atlantic waters during the overnight hours. The seas will take
longer to subside and they will slowly decrease to below 7 feet on
Tuesday afternoon. Looks like the SCA conditions for most of South
Florida waters will be allow to drop sometime Tuesday morning,
except for the Atlantic waters where the SCA will continue into
Tuesday afternoon.

BEACH FORECAST...
There still will be a high risk of rip currents through Tuesday
afternoon across the West coast Beaches of South Florida, as the
wave heights and wind speeds could keep the rip currents in place
across some areas.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dispersion values will be high through this afternoon before
diminishing tonight. The relative humidity across the region will
fall into the 40s over South Florida on Tuesday. Therefore, no
fire weather threat for South Florida for Tuesday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  55  76  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  57  78  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            60  77  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           59  75  57  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-670-671.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ610-630.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

UPDATE...55/CWC


AVIATION...54/BNB






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