783
FXUS63 KMQT 182335
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
735 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will move through Upper
  Michigan this evening into Saturday, ending west to east
  Saturday morning into the early afternoon.

- The chance for thunderstorms returns Monday night

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

This afternoon, a broad upper level trough over Canada was keeping
an active, zonal flow over the northern United States. Multiple
shortwaves were moving through the Northern Plains resulting in
areas of showers and thunderstorms over the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Some of these showers and a few thunderstorms have overspread
western Upper Michigan and the Keweenaw. Cloud cover was increasing
from west to east and temperatures were mainly in the low to mid
70s.

Expect showers to become more numerous tonight into the first half
of Saturday as a series of weak shortwaves move through the area.
Mid-level instability and lift associated with an upper level
jet could result in a few thunderstorms as well, despite the
lack of CAPE, especially late this evening into the morning
hours. The main threats with any storms that form will be brief
heavy rain and lightning. Early afternoon instability on
Saturday could result in a few rumbles of thunder as isolated to
scattered showers move through the central and eastern U.P.
Showers will exit the area by evening with clearing skies.

Lows tonight will mainly be in the 50s. Tomorrow, outside of showers
and thunderstorms, temperatures will be pleasant across most of the
area, mainly 70s with light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Sunday is expected to be dry. A period of northwesterly winds aloft
behind the departing shortwave could bring wildfire smoke from
Canada back into the area. There is disagreement among guidance on
how much of the smoke will get into the U.P but it bears watching.

A weak upper level ridge will build into the Upper Great Lakes early
next week as an upper level high pressure builds into the Southern
Mississippi Valley. This will help to further moderate temperatures
into upper 70s to mid 80s over the area for Monday and Tuesday,
which appear to be the warmest days through the period. Dewpoints
and humidity will be on the rise as low level moisture is
transported into the area on southerly winds starting Monday.
Shortwaves moving through the northern edge of the ridge combined
with increasing moisture will bring the chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms back into the area Monday night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 734 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

VFR conditions prevail this evening but are expected to deteriorate
as another round of showers spread into the UP from upstream n-
central MN. Cigs/vis will gradually lower to MVFR and IFR overnight
into the early morning hours of Saturday, first at IWD and CMX,
followed by SAW closer to 12-15z. Improving conditions follow
Saturday afternoon/evening with showers exiting east and drier air
advecting into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Winds will remain light through the end of the week and into midweek
next week. Showers will push across the lake tonight along with
a few thunderstorm closer to the southern shoreline. Showers
move out on Saturday with the chance for showers and
thunderstorms returning Monday night, with chances continuing
through midweek.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...NL