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000
FXUS63 KMQT 070453
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1153 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUES OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
INTO MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AT 925MB ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 30 TO
40 MPH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS SOME OF THESE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE
NOTED AT 850MB...BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY TO MIX DOWN AS THIS LAYER
REMAINS ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A
COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES FORMING SOUTHEAST OF THE MARQUETTE
AREA. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS
BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. OVERALL FORCING IS
WEAK...HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
HELPING THESE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE NEXT AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIALLY
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR AND AROUND
IRON MOUNTAIN DUE AGAIN TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS IN. THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 06Z IMPACTING AREAS FROM
NEAR HOUGHTON TO IRONWOOD. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD...REACHING A LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO IRON MOUNTAIN AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WARM NOSE
OF AIR SLIPPING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE WEST HALF TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA WHERE THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800MB AND 850MB THAT WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AT TIMES NEAR THE IRONWOOD AND
ONTONAGON AREAS LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND
SNOW SHOULD BE MINOR WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW
AND UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINING WESTERN LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP TYPE WILL AGAIN BE AN
ISSUE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS SOUTH OF IRON
RIVER TO NEWBERRY WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THAT LINE WILL SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
IN THE MORNING TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AGAIN SNOW
AND ICE TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ALLOWING FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.P. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN STRETCHING FROM HOUGHTON SOUTHWESTWARD TO
IRONWOOD. SOUNDINGS KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVEL
WARMER THAN -8C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
IDEA AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...THEREFORE...THIS MAY
END UP LIMITING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. ONE
CAVEAT IS THAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
ALLOWING FOR THE NON TRADITIONAL FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY AND
NORTHERN QUEBEC. HOWEVER...SINCE THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS
WILL BE LOWER AMPLITUDE...THIS VERY COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE N OF
UPPER MI THRU THE 7-DAY FCST PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
TENDENCY FOR MEAN RIDGING OVER WRN NAMERICA WHICH RESULTS IN A MEAN
TROF FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF WNW FLOW SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING CHANCES
OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN TO THE AREA. THE RETREAT OF ARCTIC AIR WELL
INTO CANADA WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THRU THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AND MAYBE EVEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A DAY OR
TWO. DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE WRN
RDG/ERN TROF PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN...WHICH WOULD LIKELY ALLOW
FOR A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN WILL BECOME.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LWR TEENS FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF FRI FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW
SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR COULD SLIP BLO 0F IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS
DECOUPLE COMPLETELY. A FEW FLURRIES/CLOUDS MAY LINGER OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO SAT MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRES FROM THE NRN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRATOCU TO DEVELOP WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
START THE DAY. WINDS OFF THE ICE COVERED LAKE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS NEAR THE LAKE ON SAT WITH LOW AND MID 20S EXPECTED
FARTHER INLAND.

SAT NIGHT/SUN...MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW TRACKING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU ONTARIO
ON SUN. WITH SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW FCST TO PASS N OF UPPER MI...MOST OF
PCPN WILL PASS N OF THE AREA AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
CONSISTENT ECMWF AND NAM SOLNS WITH MORE NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
DEPICTION OF PCPN WHICH ONLY BRUSHES FAR NE UPPER MI WITH SNOW ON
SUNDAY. GFS IS TOO WIDESPREAD AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PCPN WHICH
DOESN`T MAKE SENSE GIVEN TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED ITS SOLN. BEING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE AOA 32F...PERHAPS EVEN NEAR 40F SW/SCNTRL.

MODELS HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES/NRN ONTARIO MON. LOOKS LIKE THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK A
LITTLE FARTHER S THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHC OF
PCPN FOR MAINLY THE NCNTRL AND NE CWA. STILL...THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. MODELS DEPICT FAIRLY
TIGHT 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR ALONG AND S OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF/GEM TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM
ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER MI. THE ECMWF SHOWS LOWER 50S OVER
SW/SCNTRL UPR MI AND THE GEM SHOWS MID TO UPR 40S OVER THE SAME
AREA. THUS...THERE IS A BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TEMP FCST DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF SFC LOW. FCST FOR NOW TAKES A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH WITH HIGHS RANGING FM LWR TO MID 30S E TO LWR TO MID 40S
TOWARD WI BORDER.

TUE THROUGH THU...MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING
OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH SCNTRL CANADA WHICH WILL LEAD TO
AMPLIFICATION OF TROF OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE IS PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS REGARDING HOW THESE WAVES MAY INTERACT. THE
GEM/UKMET DEVELOP A MORE CONSOLIDATED SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS THAT
MOVES E ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES WITH THE GEM TRACK POSSIBLY CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A DECENT SNOW TO SRN UPPER MI. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
STILL MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER WITH A STRONG SFC RDG FM NRN
PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES DOMINATING THROUGH MUCH OF TIME PD. AT
THIS POINT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SOLNS THAT IT
WILL BE HARD TO ASSIGN ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. IN ANY EVENT...TREND WILL BE TOWARD COLDER WEATHER
MID TO LATE WEEK AS TROF BEGINS TO AMPLIFY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING SNOW TO IWD
AND CMX FIRST AND THEN SPREADING INTO KSAW DURING THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND PRECIP DEVELOPS EXPECT VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE. MOISTURE MOVES OUT BY FRI
EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL THE SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE
AREA AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-30KT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF 15-25KT WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KEC