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000
FXUS63 KMQT 302021
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING
ACROSS MUCH LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT...CIRCULATING
AROUND THE MAIN 500MB LOW

MU CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000J/KG HAVE BEEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
AND W OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASED SHEAR. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRACKING THE
BULK OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...

ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT THANKS TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR ALMOST A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AGAIN
THURSDAY...WITH THE FCST MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND S UPPER MI. DUE TO THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE...HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR
THIS AREA...CLOSER TO ANY LAKE BREEZE SHIFTING IN OFF LAKE MI. CAPE
VALUES ARE MINIMAL...WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDER/LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
STAGNANT WEATHER. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS WEAK TROUGHS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY. DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DECAYING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. MID TO HI-RES GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A
WEAK WAVE SKIRTING MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.
AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER CHANCES OVER LAND...SO DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

A STRONGER EMBEDDED THROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INCREASED POPS A SMALL AMOUNT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES
COMBINED WITH MORE DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR BETTER COVERAGE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN OVER 1000 J/KG. THOUGH SHEAR IS
LACKING...WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF UNDER 20 KNOTS...LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET COULD ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NOSING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO MID 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ON LAKE BREEZES OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST MAY
INDUCE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW TO UPPER MI LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY DURING THIS
TIME AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS AS WELL AS WHATEVER INFLUENCE THE DECAYING FRONT HAS LEFT.
TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THUS DIFFERENT...WITH THE ECMWF
DISPLAYING QPF ACROSS UPPER MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE GEM
ALL DAY MONDAY. FOR RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF BEST FORCING...THE CONVECTIVE SET-UP WILL
BE SOMEWHAT INTRIGUING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH AN APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS APPROACHING THE AREA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
MLCAPE VALUES SURPASSING 1000 J/KG...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS. NW FLOW EVENTS CAN BE
QUITE TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER...SO WILL NOT GET ANY
MORE DETAILED ATTM. HOWEVER...THOUGHT IT IS WORTH A MENTION OF
POSSIBLY STRONGER STORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE DECAYING
SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...A TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES WILL WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE IMPACT OF THIS SETUP ON
UPPER MI WILL DEPEND ON THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH STALLS. A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER PERIOD FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THOUGH AS
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES SWINGING IN FROM
THE N WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME
PATCHY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT AT THIS TIME...AS THE BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR AT LOCATIONS THAT
SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT DON/T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF