Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 110456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110455
MTZ000-110700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110455Z - 110700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...NELY WINDS IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME HAVE BROUGHT 50S
DEWPOINTS WWD TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING
ENHANCED. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH IS DEPARTING...COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT REMAIN WHICH IS PROVING FAVORABLE FOR HAIL GIVEN THE STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CELLULAR STORM MODE.

WITH TIME...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL STABILIZE THE AREA...BUT A
COUPLE HOURS OF HAIL NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 07/11/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   48491066 47761213 47981290 48811406 49121364 49341172
            49161077 48911052 48491066




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