Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 192021
SPC MCD 192020

Mesoscale Discussion 1720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Areas affected...southwest New Mexico into a portion of far western

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192020Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Stronger storms will remain capable of producing a few
instances of downburst winds and hail through early evening. Overall
threat is marginal, and coverage of severe events is not expected to
become sufficient for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have climbed to near 80F with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s in the presence of boundary-layer
mixing, boosting MLCAPE to 400-800 J/kg. Storms over southern NM
have increased in overall intensity during the last hour, and
further increase in coverage may occur as forcing for ascent
attendant to a progressive shortwave trough over AZ spreads into
western NM. No substantial increase in winds aloft is expected with
the approach of the impulse, and vertical shear will remain weak and
supportive of multicells. Nevertheless, the thermodynamic
environment with steep lapse rates and inverted-v boundary layers
will continue to promote a risk for a few instances of downburst
winds and hail through early evening.

..Dial.. 10/19/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   31800602 31970707 32370817 33530845 33830682 33460584
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