Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 272017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272016
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NERN GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272016Z - 272215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD FROM HIGHER TERRAIN MAY POSE A
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL
RISK. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS ALONG WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT HAVE FOSTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
PAST HOUR ACROSS WRN NC/SC. THIS AREA IS DISPLACED TO THE S FROM
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. BUT...SOME MARGINALLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND
25-30 KT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS PER RECENT VWPS FROM
AREA RADARS. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG/S OF THE COLD FRONT HAS
EXPERIENCED SOME WARMING AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR. RAP
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE GENERALLY RANGES FROM 500-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE 25-30 KT.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION /MAINLY MULTICELLS/ WITH ONGOING
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
THE LACK OF EVEN STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...AND WW ISSUANCE IS
NOT EXPECTED.

..GLEASON/HART.. 09/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   34978302 35948136 35978039 35498004 34618042 34108159
            34078277 34368380 34748371 34978302
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