Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021159
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-021300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND FAR SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA/NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021159Z - 021300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INCREASE APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK POSSIBLY BECOMING
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED/INTENSE
STORM MOVING NEWD INTO CLOUD CO. KS ATTM...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF KS PER
LATEST WV IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A VORT MAX MOVING EWD OUT OF SWRN CO.
THE STORM IS ELEVATED ABOVE A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER W OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT...ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE MAIN CAPE AXIS AND WITHIN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS APPARENT...AS
INCREASING ASCENT OVERSPREADS THIS AREA.  WHILE SEVERE RISK WOULD
LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO LARGE HAIL...EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SAID
THREAT COULD WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF NEW WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 10/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38829815 39659743 40519623 40819530 40849407 39879384
            39049545 38839710 38829815



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