Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 230006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230006
TXZ000-NMZ000-230200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW TEXAS INTO SERN NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230006Z - 230200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS
EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THAT COULD REQUIRE A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AREA OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF FORT STOCKTON.  MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY...IN THE PRESENCE OF
SIZABLE MIXED LAYER CAPE /2000-3000 J PER KG/.  IT REMAINS A BIT
UNCLEAR WHAT INFLUENCE THE LOSS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THROUGH
THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME WILL HAVE ON THIS CONVECTION.  BUT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SUBSTANTIVE
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO 40+ KT IS FORECAST THROUGH
LATE EVENING.  THIS COULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION...OR PERHAPS
SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30310366 31210412 31970483 33390505 33510386 32640336
            31940216 30590243 30250337 30310366



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.