850
FXUS64 KAMA 131907
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
207 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Today the panhandles are still under the influence of the weather
system that is pushing off to the east. This weather system is
causing the gusty north winds that will persist through the
afternoon and early evening. Wrap around moisture from this system
is currently streaming across mainly the eastern panhandles. This
is leading to isolated rain showers and possibly even a
thunderstorm this afternoon. Areas that see a rain showers or
thunderstorms will see only light accumulations of rain as the
moisture causing them is low. Today also begins a warmer phase
with temperatures reaching the 70s to 80s.

For Tuesday a weak ridge builds over the southern plains but this
will be flattened out by a trough in the central plains. The ridge
will bring mostly calm weather to the TX panhandles while OK being
influenced by the trough would have a low chance for rain showers
or thunderstorms. Similar to today any rain shower or
thunderstorm that does occur wont have much moisture to work with
so rainfall amounts will be low. As the ridge builds over the
southern plains the winds will shift to the south but be overall
weaker as the pressure gradient under the ridge will be loose.
Under this ridge the temperatures will continue to increase with
the entire panhandles expected to be firmly in the 80s. A few of
the warmest spots could even reach 90 as early as Tuesday.


SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Thunderstorms, with a severe potential expected Wed. Highs in the
80s expected across mainly the southeastern two thirds of the
combined Panhandles. A frontal passage is progged to come through
late Wed/Wed night with cooler temperatures in the 70s for Thu.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are also expected Thu into
Thu night as well. Slight chances for thunderstorms may exist for
the far southeastern TX Panhandle early Fri. However, Fri through
the weekend is looking dry with temperatures warming into the 90s
for Sat/Sun afternoon.

Wed a mid to upper level trough is expected to bring some mid
level moisture to the area as well as the aforementioned cold
front Wed. A surface high over the Gulf of the Mexico is expected
to bring some surface moisture up through south and western
portions of Texas. This moisture is expected to pick up just in
time for some late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. PVA with
the expected shortwave trough, as well as the expected cold front
may bring in some additional forcing for ascent late Wed. Have
stuck with the NBM that gives chance PoPs for the afternoon and
early evening hours, and increases to likely PoPs going into the
evening/overnight hours as the front approaches. Although the
front is expected late Wed night, the initial windshift to the
north my be early in the day and play a role in storm
development and location of the severe storms. Storms will still
have a chance to initiate off of convective temperatures being
reached. If storms do get going early from convective temperatures
they will have enough CAPE around 1000-1500 J/Kg (potentially
higher depending on model) for storms to become severe. Strong
inverted V forecast soundings suggest wind could be the main
severe factor starting off. Confidence in the magnitude and
coverage of severe storms remains low at this time due to factors
such as the timing of the front and timing of the main dynamics
aloft.

Once the front completely comes through the combined Panhandles
severe storms become less of a threat overnight with an increase
in a threat for flooding. Moisture flux is expected to pick up
overnight with forecast sounding looking more tropical in nature
with times of heavy rain possible. The main shortwave aloft is
expected Thu night with continued rain chances all the way thru
Fri morning. After this system exits, ridging begins to take place
with much of the area reaching the 90s for Sat and again Sun.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals and across much of the panhandles
for today and overnight into Monday. Currently the threat of any
rain shower much less thunderstorms at any terminal is very low.
The NE panhandles has a low chance for a rain shower or
thunderstorms this afternoon with the threat ending by the
evening. Winds will be gusty from the north through the afternoon
and into the early evening. These winds will weaken for the
overnight and slowly shift to the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                50  87  54  87 /   0  10  10  30
Beaver OK                  47  86  54  85 /   0   0  20  40
Boise City OK              46  85  50  78 /   0  20  10  50
Borger TX                  51  90  56  89 /   0   0  10  40
Boys Ranch TX              49  90  52  88 /   0  10  10  30
Canyon TX                  49  87  53  87 /   0  10  10  30
Clarendon TX               51  84  55  87 /   0   0  10  40
Dalhart TX                 45  86  48  82 /   0  10  10  30
Guymon OK                  47  88  51  82 /   0  10  20  40
Hereford TX                49  89  53  87 /   0   0  10  30
Lipscomb TX                49  85  56  87 /   0   0  10  30
Pampa TX                   50  85  56  86 /   0   0  10  40
Shamrock TX                51  84  55  88 /   0   0  10  40
Wellington TX              51  84  56  89 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98