Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241646

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
946 AM MST Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm weather through today. Gusty
afternoon winds are expected through the week. There is a chance
of light showers across northeast Arizona on Tuesday. A colder and
wetter system may impact the northland starting Friday.


.UPDATE...Have advanced the start time of the Wind Advisory to now
per observations of SW gusts to 51 mph at Springerville and 44 mph
at Show Low. Cloud cover was also increased for today. Updates
already sent.


.PREV DISCUSSION /312 AM MST/...Look for general pattern of
troughing and west to northwest flow across Arizona over the
coming week.

For today...Another passing shortwave trough will produce windy
conditions, with the focus shifting to northeast Arizona. Dry
conditions will remain in place with a Red Flag Warning in effect
from the Mogollon Rim northward this afternoon. Wind gusts
approaching 50 mph will also be possible across northeast Arizona
with a Wind Advisory in effect for the afternoon stretch.

On Tuesday...The general pattern of troughing will persist with
another disturbance pushing across the area. Models are still
showing a bit cooler air moving in from the north on Tuesday so
we have daytime temperatures dipping 5 to 10 degrees lower
compared to the forecast for today. In addition, there will be
enough upward motion and cooling for a chance of showers over far
east and northeast portions of Arizona. Winds will be lighter
under weaker pressure gradients but remain breezy.

For Wednesday and Thursday...Daytime temperatures will warm a bit
as a milder air mass moves across the state. Breezy afternoon
conditions will continue with winds shifting to a more
northwesterly direction.

From Friday onward...The GFS and European model forecasts
continue to show an even stronger trough and cold front. High
temperatures could dip from 10 to 20 degrees below normal with the
potential for showers and even some snow in the mountains. Still
time for this possibility to fade (as have many other such systems
on day 5 or 6 of the forecast this spring) but confidence in the
end of week storm is increasing.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...VFR conditions under increasing
cloudiness today and tonight. Winds increasing and becoming
southwest at 15-25 KT with gusts 30-45 KT along and NE of a KGCN-
KFLG-KJTC line. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Strong winds will develop again today for most
areas along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim where a Red Flag
Warning is in effect. Breezy west winds develop Tuesday but minimum
humidities are forecast to remain above critical values and there
will be a chance for showers in northeast Arizona.

Wednesday through Friday...Unsettled conditions with breezy west
winds each day. Daytime humidity forecast to remain above critical
thresholds in most areas. Slight chance of showers in northeast AZ
Wednesday night. Increasing chance of showers and cooler on Friday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ109>114-116-

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ011-013-014-016-




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