Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 181023
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
323 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF ARIZONA
NEAREST THE REMNANT CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. WE HAVE LIFTED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS MOVED
SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT
ON THE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

MOISTURE PROFILES THIN OUT ON FRIDAY BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. THE INTERACTION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
DRAWN NORTH ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AS WIND
SHEAR INCREASES. A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

A DEEPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY
THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
LEAVE AND AN ACTIVE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC COULD ENHANCE FURTHER
MOISTURE SURGES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...BRIEF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS
MORNING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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