Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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337
FXUS65 KFGZ 251652
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
950 AM MST Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure will cross the state
today bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of rain
showers mainly from Flagstaff northward. Fair weather is expected
Sunday, then another low pressure system will arrive Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A band of mid and high level clouds is moving across
northern Arizona this morning with only virga showers and a few
light rain showers. Other showers are developing in the wake of this
band in far northwestern Arizona and southern Nevada. Showers will
move east with scattered showers moving across the area mainly along
and north of I-40. Will update sky cover for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION /338 AM MST/...A quick moving area of low pressure will
bring a chance of rain showers to northern Arizona this afternoon
and evening. The best chance for showers will be north of Interstate
40. Snow levels are expected to remain around 8000 feet.
Additionally, steepening lapse rates and lift associated with this
system may be enough to spark a few thunderstorms. Have included a
slight chance of thunderstorms mainly from Interstate 40 northward
to cover this. The system will quickly shift east late tonight with
pleasant weather expected in its wake on Sunday. High temperatures
on Sunday will be near normal.

Active weather pattern continues next week with another system
impacting the area Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to
struggle with the exact strength and timing of this system, but
latest guidance suggest snow levels may fall below 7000 feet on
the backside of this system Tuesday morning. Later shifts will be
able to fine tune this portion of the forecast. A brief break in
the wetter weather appears likely mid next week, but models
indicate another system could drop south and impact northern
Arizona on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...A weak cold front will bring SW
sfc winds 10-20kts to the area through 01z Sunday. BKN-OVC clouds
from 15-20kft msl will give way to sct-bkn cigs from 3-6kft agl by
afternoon. Isold-sct -shra/-shsn possible from 22z-02z along and
north of the I-40 corridor. Stronger showers may produce brief MVFR
conditions. All areas VFR aft 02z-04z Sunday. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/TPS
AVIATION...BEP

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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