Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
FXUS65 KFGZ 281009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
309 AM MST Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to build over the
southwest United States for the Memorial Day Weekend with warmer
temperatures, light winds and a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains of eastern Arizona. For the
remainder of the coming week, seasonable temperatures and a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to move across the southwest
United States and Arizona into Tuesday with weak troughing then
becoming the dominant feature heading toward the end of the week.
The main impact of these two features will be warm daytime
temperatures and light winds through Tuesday with slightly cooler
temperatures and gusty afternoon winds on Wednesday and Thursday
as the weak trough moves in.

Otherwise, a push of moisture from New Mexico associated with a
very weak cold front will enhance the chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms today and Memorial Day, primarily over
the mountains of eastern Arizona. Moisture will continue to
trickle into Arizona from Tuesday into Thursday from multiple
sources such as thunderstorm outflow boundaries from New Mexico
and low-level flow from over the Gulf of California. Generally
just enough moisture to support a slight chance of high based
showers and storms area wide. The best chance for seeing any
decent rainfall accumulation will be over the White Mountains
region of eastern Arizona. Troughing that will begin to develop
over Arizona from Wednesday into Thursday will also introduce a
warmer air mass in the mid to upper levels. So even though
precipitable water values don`t drop off appreciably the warm air
aloft may place a cap on the threat for high based storms and

All-in-all a very typical weather regime as we begin to look
toward the monsoon season.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Local dense smoke is possible from
forest fires through 12Z and then again 03Z-12Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will continue over northern Arizona for the next 24
hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Surface high pressure over Utah will bring
northeast breezes across the area today. A few mountain showers are
possible over eastern AZ on Monday. Otherwise...expect mostly fair
and warm conditions, light winds, and poor ventilation overnight.

.Tuesday through Thursday...Expect a cooling trend and a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms each day.






For Northern Arizona weather information visit is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.