Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 281107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
407 AM MST Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect daily chance for showers and thunderstorms as
an active monsoon pattern remains in place across northern Arizona
into next week.


.DISCUSSION...Residual moisture across the region resulted in
scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms overnight and
early this morning. Precipitation has been most prevalent over
Navajo and Apache Counties, but a band of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms over eastern Coconino County is currently
moving to the southwest. Latest hi-res guidance indicates a lull
in the showers and thunderstorms later this morning before
redeveloping around midday and into the afternoon. However, there
is some question as to how widespread the convection when it
redevelops due to significant cloud cover and the ongoing
rainfall. Current thinking is storms will be able to redevelop
across the higher terrain with weak steering flow generally taking
them in a northerly direction. As has been the case for the past
several days, slow storm motion and high precipitable water values
will make flash flooding the main threat.

Over the weekend and into early next week, a developing inverted
trough across the southern portion of the state will turn the flow
aloft to the southeast. This will advect more moisture-rich air
northward with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. There are some indications of a bit of
drier air making its way into the region the middle of next week
with decreasing storm chances. This will continue to be monitored
over the coming days.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA will continue
early this morning. Scattered SHRA/TSRA expected again from around
18Z to 02Z with MVFR to IFR conditions in the heavier storms.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms
across the fire district this weekend and into early next week.
Winds to be generally light except in the vicinity of thunderstorms.






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