Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290353
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
853 PM MST THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA CAUSING CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW...AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE RECENTLY REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...EXCEPTIONS BEING FAR NORTHERN
COCONINO COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
MOHAVE COUNTY. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN FAVORED LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED DECENT SHOWERS
EARLIER TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /318 PM MST/...FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL TRACK EASTWARD, EXITING NORTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT OF THE LOW TRACK AND DECREASING INSTABILITY, SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
ONLY OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THE FIRST ONE AND SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 7500
FEET FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE AND HAS AMPLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA.

ON MONDAY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW CAUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ON TUESDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
AND EVEN ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATION SITES IN
SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS DECKS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING
WEST AT 10-20 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER. THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. NOT MUCH OF A BREAK ON
SATURDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA.
LOOK FOR COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH A BIT STRONGER
WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOL AND BREEZY WEATHER. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/RR
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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