Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 070331
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
831 PM MST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE CHANCE OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD
BACK INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT SHORT-TERM TRENDS TO BOTH
PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /357 PM MST/...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND MOSTLY SMALL HAIL HAVE BEEN MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS COCONINO
COUNTY, WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ALSO IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE DUE TO COLDER
MID- LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. EXPECT MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TUESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL START TO TURN OUR FLOW
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH MOISTURE HANGING ON IN THE EAST. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL BE DRY ENOUGH FOR
LITTLE OR NO STORM ACTIVITY WEST OF A LINE FROM KAYENTA TO PAYSON
INCLUDING COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF AS THE LOW APPROACHES, WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WHICH IS UNUSUAL
FOR MID JULY IN OUR AREA. MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE RIDGE
PUSHING WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND, PUSHING MONSOON MOISTURE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES GO UP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ONLY ISOLATED TSRA/-SHRA
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
STRONGER STORMS. SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER 18Z TUESDAY WITH A SLOW DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/JJ
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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