Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 280450
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND SHOULD MOST
LIKELY REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 12Z AND WACO BY 16Z.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE EXTREMELY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID MORNING MONDAY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
WRF SOLUTION AS WELL AS NAM ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8
AND 12 KNOTS.

WE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CROSSED SOUTH OF THE RIVER. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES A
SLOW PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT IS A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BUMPED THE FRONTAL TIMING UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 7 AM...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...KEPT POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE BUT
SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLIGHTLY
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
JUST NORTH OF LAWTON TO JUST SOUTH OF CHILDRESS AT 3 PM. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EXTEND TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED
RIVER TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SOUTH INTO THE ATHENS TO WACO TO COMANCHE AREAS BY MIDDAY MONDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING HIGH QPFS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG PART ON THE HIGHS.
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2-2/3S OF NORTH TEXAS THAN WE WOULD EXPECT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT
THE HIGHS ACROSS OKLAHOMA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...YOU CAN
SEE 90S TO NEAR 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THERE IS NO RAIN
TO TO COOL DOWN THOSE TEMPERATURES. HAVE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE RED RIVER...WITH MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME EAST BY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS...20 PERCENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH SUNDAY. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  20
WACO, TX              77  99  75  93  73 /   5  30  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             74  90  69  90  70 /  40  40  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            75  91  73  93  73 /  30  40  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  92  70  93  72 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            78  94  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           78  95  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  73  93  71 /  10  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  75  94  72 /   0  30  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  93  72  92  71 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82




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