Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 300011 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
711 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION...
00 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Low to moderate crosswind potential. Otherwise VFR
will prevail.

A cold front continues to slide through Metroplex terminals and
will continue eastward through the evening hours. The chance for
rain with this feature remains low and for now, I`ll keep any
mention of precipitation out of the TAF.

VFR stratus around FL100 will invade from the west and northwest
through the overnight hours across Metroplex sites with likely
SCT VFR stratus around FL080 at Waco. Northwesterly winds of
around 15 knots with perhaps some gusts to 20 knots may result in
some minor crosswinds on north-south oriented runways through the
overnight hours and into early Thursday. Wind speeds will subside
mid to late morning on Thursday with just a few high clouds across
the terminals. A return to south flow may be possible late in the
day on Thursday.

24-Bain

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/
An upper low continues its steady eastward march across the
Southern Plains this afternoon, bringing showers and storms to the
Upper Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. We are expecting
additional development this afternoon and evening, but at this
time it looks like activity may initiate just east of the CWA
where the strongest forcing exists. However, slight chance POPs
will be kept from Paris to Palestine where a brief storm may occur
before moving east of the forecast area.

The upper low will continue east tonight, dragging a cold front
southeastward through the area. The front should sweep southeast
through the entire area by Thursday morning, bringing cooler and
drier air to the region. We will quickly switch back to return
flow Thursday night and Friday as the next upper level storm
system approaches from the northwest. This system is progged to
become quasi-stationary over New Mexico or far West Texas Saturday
and Sunday. This will place North and Central Texas in a
favorable location for moisture and lift, possibly leading to
multiple rounds of precipitation.

Wind shear may be a bit of a question when considering the
intensity of the thunderstorms, but if instability is good enough
to overcome questionable shear, severe weather may still be
possible. Also, due to the prolonged period of the system hanging
west of the forecast area, locally heavy rainfall may be another
possibility. We are still a few days out, so hopefully these
forecast parameters become better realized as we head into the end
of the workweek.

This system will move east of the area on Monday, bringing an end
to precipitation. Tuesday looks dry at this time, then a quick
moving shortwave may bring a brief round of storms around the
middle of next week.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    52  73  54  85  61 /   5   5   5   0   0
Waco                51  77  53  84  62 /   5   5   5   0   0
Paris               50  65  47  80  56 /  20  10  10   5   5
Denton              50  71  49  83  58 /   5   5   5   0   0
McKinney            50  69  48  81  57 /  10  10   5   0   0
Dallas              53  73  54  84  62 /   5  10   5   0   0
Terrell             51  71  50  82  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           51  73  54  84  60 /  10  10   5   0   0
Temple              50  77  54  84  62 /   5   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       48  74  50  88  57 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

24/79


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