Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 110534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1134 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Dry northwest flow aloft will keep VFR conditions across the
entire region through Monday night with only some passing high

A west to southwest wind will prevail through Monday afternoon at
speeds generally less than 10 knots. A cold front will move
through North and Central Texas late Monday evening and turn the
wind to the northwest and increase speeds slightly. FROPA at the
Metroplex TAF sites will be around 04Z Tuesday and Waco by 06Z.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 232 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

Dewpoints in the 20s and mostly clear skies means that optimal
radiative cooling conditions will occur again tonight. Winds will
decouple around sunset and temperatures should fall from near 70
to the 50s quickly thereafter. The one caveat may be the high
cloud deck generated by the upper low off the Baja California
coast, which may thicken enough across our southwestern counties
to slow the cooling process tonight. Otherwise, tonight`s low
temperature forecast will be mostly below guidance, with a blend
of bias corrected Consensus MOS used as a starting point. Some
frost will again be possible but will hold off including it in
tonight`s weather grids due to the fact that it should remain
patchy and relatively short-lived. Low temps should be a few
degrees above last night, but many spots (especially rural
locations) will likely bottom out at or just below freezing by
daybreak Monday.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 232 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/
/Monday Through Next Weekend/

Another mild day in the 70s is in store Monday, as dry northwest
flow aloft maintains a very dry airmass in place at the surface
with light westerly winds 10 mph or less. A strong shortwave
disturbance aloft will dive southeast across the Mississippi River
Valley Monday night and early Tuesday and will help a strong cold
front move through the area. Occasionally gusty northwest winds
near 15 mph and highs in the 50s north, lower 60s Central Texas
will make for a bit of a chilly day, as temperatures start off in
the mid-upper 30s. The dry northwest flow aloft pattern will
remain stagnant through much of the week with the return of
breezy south-southwest winds on Wednesday. The winds will
combine with the reinforced dry air in place to allow temperatures
to rebound back into the 60s east, 70s west once again. Another
shortwave dives southeast across the Plains/Ozarks/and Mississippi
River Valley later Wednesday night and will assist yet another
dry cold front through the area on Thursday. The airmass behind
this front doesn`t appear to be quite as cool with highs in the
upper 50s/60s Thursday afternoon. These successive surface cold
fronts will continue to keep humidity values low with no
precipitation. Elevated grass fire concerns will continue off and
on, but be mostly a concern on the warmer days Monday and

A surface high settles across the area Thursday night into Friday
morning with a freeze in some areas as lows tank to between 25
and 35 degrees. Plentiful sunshine and south winds near 10 mph
will allow for highs to rebound back once again into the 60s
Friday afternoon. Mid level flow finally shows signs of dampening
which allows the lee side surface trough across the high plains to
deepen and bring windy and warm conditions across the area on
Saturday. After coordination, it was agreed upon to go well above
national blend numbers and to increase the winds Saturday. My
biggest concern, if this pattern persists amongst the medium range
models Saturday will be a high grass fire threat. The gusty
south-southwest winds 15-25 mph will work upon a very dry airmass
(RH below 30 percent west of I-35/35 West). With little in the
way of appreciable rainfall the past month or so, fine vegetation
and grasses continue drying rapidly with energy release component
values/ERC`s rising into well into ranges of concern. Fortunately,
the grass fire threat will be short-lived with another surface
cold front arriving next Saturday night and Sunday morning. Both
surface and column moisture look pretty scant at this point and
have left a dry forecast in place for now. Highs Sunday will fall
back into the 60s with north winds 10 to 15 mph.

The forecast of drier and above normal cool season conditions
with the current La Nina seems to be playing out. If we continue
with little to no precipitation moving into the Winter months, the
fire weather season could be a very active one for the first half
of 2018 for North and Central Texas.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    39  76  40  57  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                35  77  38  60  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               35  73  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              32  76  35  57  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            34  74  36  56  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              41  75  40  57  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             35  76  37  57  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           36  74  39  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              35  76  39  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       35  76  35  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   0




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