Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 251745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...
CONCERNS: CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING AND FRIDAY.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES UP TO AT LEAST
MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE STRONG
INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE CLEARING. THE CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS IS
FOR CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING AT
LEAST...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTH FLOW AND
THE TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE NAM SOUNDINGS BRING IN LIFR
CEILINGS BEFORE SUNRISE. IF THE AFTERNOON SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW
CEILINGS TRENDING LOWER...WILL THROW SOME IFR OR LIFR INTO THE
MIX. 84

&&

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS AM TO ADDRESS HIGH CLOUD COVER NOW
STREAMING IN AHEAD OF LARGER UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...A
SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE AND THUS MAX TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED
IN THIS UPDATE. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE ONGOING
WIND ADVISORY THAT GOES INTO EFFECT AROUND 18 UTC /NOON CST/. THE
12 UTC FWD RAOB REVEALED AROUND 30 KNOTS OF FLOW AROUND 925 MB AND
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INITIALIZED THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD FAIRLY WELL.
CONTINUED CYCLOGENESIS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION SHOULD YIELD A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. WITH THE
COMBINATION OF A STIFF SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME
MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD PUT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON TO PARIS LINE WITHIN
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. ZFP AND UPDATED WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN
SENT.

15-BAIN



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014/
IT WILL BE A WINDY AND MILD CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY MIDDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
THUS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A PARIS TO CORSICANA TO TEMPLE LINE. HIGH
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF A GAINESVILLE
TO CLEBURNE TO LAMPASAS. WE WILL BE ISSUING A GRASS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR THOSE AREAS.AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE UPPER 30S AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS TOMORROW MORNING WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WILL BE THIS MORNING. WE WILL
SEE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES EAST OF I-35/I-35E FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE TOMORROW
EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN
AREA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1/4 INCH
OR LESS...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND THEN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE LOW RAIN CHANCES THAT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD WILL END BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL SURGE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A 1058MB HIGH SINKS SOUTH. ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY. WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHILE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE IS A
FAVORABLE SET UP FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ISSUES ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT ARE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW POPS/QPFS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  49  62  46  48 /   0   5  10  40  30
WACO, TX              63  48  65  51  51 /   0   5  10  40  40
PARIS, TX             60  45  58  50  50 /   0  10  20  60  50
DENTON, TX            62  48  61  42  47 /   0   5  10  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          61  48  61  46  48 /   0  10  20  40  30
DALLAS, TX            62  50  62  48  49 /   0  10  10  40  30
TERRELL, TX           61  48  62  51  51 /   0  10  20  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         63  50  65  54  54 /   0  10  20  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            63  49  66  53  53 /   0   5  10  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  46  62  39  45 /   0   5  10  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>134-141>146-156>161.


&&

$$

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