Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 182329
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
628 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually built into the Carolinas through
the weekend, bringing a warming trend and dry weather. By early
next week temperatures will be above normal. A cold front will
bring increasing rain chances late Monday into Tuesday. Slightly
cooler temperatures will follow this front, but are expected to
remain at or above seasonable levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...One last very cold day ongoing presently,
but a warm up is on the horizon!

Arctic cold front from last night is well offshore, but arctic cold
remains across the Carolinas. NW flow ahead of an advancing high
pressure is weakening, but the combination of the shallow cold dome
and flow off the deep snowpack to the north has kept temps in the
30s this aftn. A few spots will reach 40-43, but this is still 15
degrees below normal for mid-January. Confluence aloft will drive
the expansion of the surface high E/NE from the Gulf Coast, and this
occurs in conjunction with WAA aloft as ridging blossoms from the
SW. These two occurring together will cause the gradient to slacken,
and winds should decouple to near calm tonight while backing to the
W/SW. With a very dry airmass in place (PWATs around 0.2 inches) and
light winds, good radiational cooling is expected, and after highs
only around 40, have sided with the cooler MAV numbers for lows
tonight. This produces widespread lows of 23-25 degrees, with subtly
warmer temps expected on the immediate coast, and slightly cooler
temps in the sheltered pocosin swampy areas.

Temps will climb to more seasonable values on Friday as the high
shifts to produce SW surface winds and continued WAA. There will
continue to be an inversion just atop the relatively cooler shallow
surface layer, so have again forecast on the cooler side of the
guidance envelope for highs on Friday, but expect maximum temps to
climb to 1-2 degrees either side of 55 beneath full sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...A cutoff mid level low will meander
across the southeast through the period with little fanfare. In
fact, it will serve to enhance a warmup for the region with a
southwest flow. Still not anticipating any precipitation and few
clouds although some mid and high level moisture may stream by
late. Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 20s inland to
lower 30s along the coast. Saturday afternoon will see a warmup
to sixty degrees and probably a little higher inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Mid/upper level trough axis will shift off
the SE CONUS Sunday, along with associated mid-level cloudiness.
This will set the stage for a period of above normal temps to
continue through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Moisture will
begin to return in low-level southerly flow Monday, with the
possibility of some showers advecting in off the ocean during the
day. Consensus on timing of the frontal passage appears to be
Tuesday morning, and that will coincide with the highest PoPs during
the period. Models suggest there will be little cold air arriving
immediately behind the front, with temperatures on Tuesday still
rising to around 60. They will, however, drop back into the 50s for
Thursday due to height falls and surface winds becoming more
northerly.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 00Z...High confidence in VFR conditions through the forecast
period. W to NW winds of 5 to 10 KT will become light and variable
tonight and W to SW at 5 to 8 KT after sunrise Friday morning.

Extended Outlook...VFR except for possible MVFR in scattered showers
Monday into early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Latest buoy observations show NW winds
continuing, but with speeds easing to 10-15 kts. These lighter
winds with the offshore direction have allowed seas to fall
below any cautionary or hazardous thresholds. WInd direction
will remain from the NW through tonight as high pressure expands
eastward from the Gulf Coast, before gradually transitioning to
the SW during Friday. As the high ridges towards the area, the
gradient will initially relax allowing wind speeds to fall to
around 10 kts tonight, before increasing to 10-15 kts from the
SW on Friday. Wave heights of 3-5 ft this aftn will gradually
fall, becoming 2-3 ft tonight and Friday, with the 9 sec E/NE
swell gradually decaying into Friday as a SW wind wave
amplifies.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Expect a southwest flow of 10-15 knots
across all waters through the period as high pressure resides to
the south and the southern extension of a broad cyclonic flow
to the north drive wind direction and speeds. Significant seas,
lacking any stronger winds or robust swell components will be
2-4 feet.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Winds Sunday look to be light and
variable as high pressure drifts across the waters. Weak
southeasterly flow will begin Sunday night and increase to 15-20
knots by Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. Scattered showers
will be possible Monday moving south to north, with increasing
coverage along the cold front, which is expected to move off the
coast Tuesday morning. An offshore wind after fropa on Tuesday
looks to be relatively weak, generally 10 knots or less, in a
relaxed gradient.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...31



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