Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 230700
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
300 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool
high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin
Friday afternoon through the weekend, as a low pressure system
slowly approaches from the west. This system will bring a chance
of rain late in the weekend, followed by another system Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Through daybreak the sky will remain clear.
Temperatures have not been falling quite as slow as forecast and
this has called the freeze warning into uncertainty a bit. For now
it appears that the freeze may be a bit more limited in time and
space than what we`ve forecast but there seems little value in
changing the warning at this time in case the wind continues to
slacken and radiational cooling gets maximized.

Similarly today will be slightly warmer (less cold) than previously
though even if by 2-3 degrees. Even so, highs a few degrees within
60 are still about a good 10 degrees below climatology. Our light NE
to E winds will veer to SE as the day wears on as high pressure to
our north progresses eastward. This trend lasts into tonight and the
addition of moisture may lead to some fog along coastal areas.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Primary headline this period is a notable
warming trend after a nippy start daybreak Friday. High
pressure migrating offshore Friday and strong low pressure
churning toward the central Mississippi valley will bring a
robust warm air advection regime, with low to mid 70s looking
like a good bet both Friday and Saturday. This will bring low
temperatures Saturday morning 12-16 degrees milder compared to
Friday morning. Minimal or no rain chances this period however
until after Saturday. The atmospheric column will remain quite
dry above 800 millibars both days, with periods of cumulus in
the cards Friday afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Rain chances are best inland Sunday as a
low pressure system swerves north, well west of the coast. A
warm and humid day Sunday all areas, well into the 70s, if not a
few 80s depending on cloud cover extent, even ceiling breaks
could warm the air quickly. A rumble of thunder is possible and
favored inland. A few low pressure centers beneath short-waves
will sustain low end rain chances Monday into Tuesday. QPF looks
quite low but hopefully enough to knock a little pollen out of
the sky and pines. No cold air on the horizon and temperatures
overall appear to run above normal through the extended period.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 06Z...Skies have cleared and will remain so through the TAF
cycle. Similarly there will be no visibility restrictions so the
entire forecast will feature VFR. Wind will remain out of the NE to
E as high pressure remains to our north.

Extended outlook...Fog possible Thursday night. Otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Though winds have tapered inland they
continue to be breezy along the beaches and still downright
howling over the coastal waters. As such a Small Craft advisory
continues. The gradient will abate today albeit quite gradually
and conditions will remain unfit for most recreational mariners
for most of the day. In fact with conditions so slow to abate
and seas lagging as they always do we may need a short-lived
SCEC headline after the advisory ends this evening into early
tonight. But later tonight conditions will fall below any
thresholds, though some choppy 4 or occasional 5 ft seas will
linger and many mariners may want to put off boating until the
much quieter short term.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...A veering wind trend this period but
manageable as high pressure slips offshore. Winds Friday and
Saturday 15 KT or less, except a few higher gusts near shore in
the afternoon as the sea breeze gears up. seas 3 feet or less
mainly in SE waves every 6-7 seconds. No TSTMS expected this
period nor obstructions to visibility. A light to moderate chop
for both days.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...No advisories are expected Sunday and
Monday but seas may approach 4 feet since southerly flow remains
persistent. Isolated marine showers can be expected this period
but TSTMS if any would be confined to the Gulf Stream if at all.
Seas 3-4 feet mainly in SE waves between 7-10 second intervals
with a moderate chop. The warm land temps will support a sea
breeze so expected gusts near 20 KT near shore in the afternoon
hours.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ087-096-099-
     105-107-109.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MBB



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