Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 280243
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1043 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FELL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE A QUITE NIGHT IN STORE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR
70 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THURSDAY TO HAVE BETTER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRI AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EACH DAY THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FARTHER INLAND. MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY/NIGHT ARE SPOT ON TO CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT AND ERODE HEADING
INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
ON SHORE FETCH OF MOIST AIR WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH AND WILL
ADVECT SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE DISTANT ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL ADD TO OVERALL PCP WATER LEVELS BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD
LIMIT MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION PROVIDING A LID ON GROWTH POTENTIAL
OF ANY SHWRS THAT DEVELOP WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

AS RIDGE BUILDS H5 HEIGHT RISES WILL ADD TO VERY WARM TEMPS WITH 850
TEMPS REACHING NEAR 17C OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH MID
80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSE TO THE COAST. OVERALL EXPECT A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY
FOCUSED ALONG ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY
SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AND LAND BREEZE AT NIGHT....AS WELL AS
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHC OF STRONGER OR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIP EAST
AND SLOWLY ERODE IN THE UPPER LEVELS HEADING INTO MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AROUND LOW WHICH TRIES TO CUT OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.

WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET ALONG THE COAST...LATEST RADAR DEPICTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND SLOWLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER KLBT/KFLO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY
SHOWER THAT PASSES OVER EITHER TERMINAL COULD CREATE BRIEF
MVFR...BUT OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KTS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER.AREAS OF GROUND FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL. AS FOR COASTAL SITES...WILL CONTINUE TEMPO MVFR FOR NOW.
ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING AOB 10 KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1042 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COAST
WATERS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AT 3
FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. NO CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE COAST WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST TOWARD OUR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. OVERALL WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS INTO
THE 3-4 FT RANGE ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY. DOMINANT
WAVE PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 7-9 SEC RANGE WITH SOME CHOP ON
TOP.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK
GRADIENT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP
DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT
IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...


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