Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 290705
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
305 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ERIKA...OR THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA...WILL
APPROACH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THIS EVENING AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES.
STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL OVERNIGHT WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME COMFORTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHEASTERLY
POST-FRONTAL FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-WEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT IN PLACE. AREA-WIDE
THIS WILL TEND TO MEAN IT IS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND
EVEN THE SEA BREEZE FAILED TO DO SO DURING PEAK HEATING (THOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS OF GTOWN AND HORRY).
SIMILARLY IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR `NORMAL` FOG (BELOW ABOUT 1 SM).
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO PLAY INTO NIGHTTIME LOWS WHICH
WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 60S FAR NW TO LOW 70S FAR SRN SC COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BASICALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF COAST RAMBLES INTO THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA REGION. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
RIDGE WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFLUENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN THE AREA. AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE
TO ALMOST TWO INCHES...LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE MOSTLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT A DIFFUSE MID LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SIMILAR PRESSURE PATTERN. OVERALL THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST. WHAT
EVENTUALLY REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA MEANDERS AROUND THE
SOUTHEAST AS A VORT CENTER SEEMINGLY NEVER GOING ANYWHERE. THERMAL
PROFILES REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER AND WITH THE USUAL MESOSCALE
FEATURES...DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
CAROLINAS COASTLINES.

DURING THIS SATURDAY MORNING...VFR TO PREVAIL WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN
HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING MID CLOUDS. NORTHEAST
WINDS 2 TO 8 KTS...WITH THE HIER SPEEDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE WITH
DIURNAL SCATTERED CU TO OCCUR. NE WINDS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 KT
VEERING TO THE ENE-ESE AOB 12 KTS DUE TO THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFTN/EVENG MESOSCALE INDUCED
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...AKA SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL INCREASING
TREND OF OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. E TO ESE WINDS WILL
DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET SAT...POSSIBLY GOING CALM BY
MIDNIGHT SUN ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW NE WINDS OF
AROUND 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHEAST
FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW HOURS OF NE WINDS EARLY TUESDAY
BUT THIS SHOULD BE FLEETING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3
FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FIELDS FOR THE WATERS WITH
WEAK SYNOPTIC FEATURES. OVERALL EXPECT A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WIND
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
LIMITED AS WELL WITH 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/SGL


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