Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 241726
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN STRONG UPPER LOW FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...FULL-BORE SUNSHINE-MINUTES RACKING UP ON
THE SOLAR COUNTER TODAY. THIN SHREDS OF CIRRUS MAY SAIL OVERHEAD
LATER IN THE DAY BUT NO IMPACTS OFF-SETTING A SUNNY FORECAST WITH
MAXIMUMS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE. COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY HOLD IN THE
UPPER 60SS DUE TO CHILLY INSHORE SSTS...AND THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATING OFFSHORE WILL GUIDE WINDS ONSHORE INLAND DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING LOCAL MARINE-INFLUENCED COOLING.

FAIR CONDITIONS INTO EVENING AND SETTLING OF THE MARINE AIR UNDER
CLEAR SKIES COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN PROTECTED POCKETS OVER
OUR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG INTO EARLY FRIDAY...AS WELL AS
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE REALIZED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND
AN A-TYPICAL HOURLY TEMP CURVE APPEARS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
AND CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE COULD TRIP OFF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 9Z...AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM GGE TO MYR TO SUT TO COASTAL NEW HANOVER AND
PENDER COUNTIES INTO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO...IT THEN WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW
AT THIS POINT. THE NAM IS HINTING A SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST WITH A WEAK CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.

FRIDAY...MODERATELY POTENT VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND...LOW CERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOW TOPPED
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE...JUST UNLIKELY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRECIPITATION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO
EASTERLY AND DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE
TO SE...COMING AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10
KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4
FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL




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