Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 280508
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT TO
UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS
STABILIZATION ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.

SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8



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