Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 050804
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
404 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS...WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK KEEPING WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IN TENNESSEE WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF NC.
ALTHOUGH FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL...THERE IS A HINT OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF
POPS PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
LOWER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER PLAY AND WILL
ONCE AGAIN APPLY. &&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CUTOFF LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY FLATTENING OUT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW A BIT AND ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND RIDGING
HEADING INTO MID WEEK. AS THIS LOW LIFTS NORTH SOME SHORTWAVE
WAVE ENERGY WILL BE STRETCHED ON THE EASTERN EDGE AND MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT INTO
TUES...BUT OVERALL EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AS RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE OVERALL LOSS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT...BUT A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS STILL IN
PLACE...EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER WITH ONLY LOCALIZED
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE SFC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A FAIRLY TYPICAL MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WED THROUGH FRI. RIDGE
WILL BUILD UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE MAY PUSH A WEAKENING BOUNDARY/TROUGH INTO THE
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURS BEFORE RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
WEEK. OVERALL EXPECT TYPICAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE
OR INLAND ALONG PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF AREA FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH
THEUPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STRONGER
NORTHERLY PUSH WHICH MAY BRINGS BOUNDARY SOUTH AND PRODUCE A SHIFT
IN WINDS TO THE NORTH COME FRI INTO SAT....BUT INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MORE LOCALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE KCRE
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR AS A MARINE
AIRMASS SATURATED FROM EARLIER STORMS MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS WILL BE
SSW BECOMING A MORE WESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
IMPROVED VSBYS AT KCRE. THERE WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

AFTER SUNRISE SW-WSW WINDS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS DECREASING. BY LATE MORNING THE BEST CHANCE OF VCTS WILL
BE AT KFLO. TOWARDS AFTERNOON BOTH KFLO/KLBT WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR VCTS AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WORKS WELL INLAND OF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SW. WINDS WILL
BECOME SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.&&

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUES FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH 6 AM AS A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE HIGH SIDE OF A
10-15 KNOT RANGE CONTINUES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY ONCE
AGAIN A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SAME RANGE. TONIGHT LOOKS QUIETER AS
WELL FROM A WIND SPEED STANDPOINT AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST FEW CYCLES IS WEAKER.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 KTS WITH A SPIKE IN WINDS EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. SEAS
WILL BASICALLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT AS SHORTER SW WIND WAVE MIXES WITH
A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SE SWELL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...OVERALL EXPECT SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH
BUT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE BY TO THE NORTH AND WILL PUSH TROUGH
EASTWARD WHICH MAY SHIFT WINDS AROUND BRIEFLY TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS. THIS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A
UPTICK IN THE WINDS AND SEAS IN A TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW LATE
WED UP TO 15 KTS OR SO WHICH IN TURN WILL PUSH SEAS UP CLOSER TO 4
TO 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 4 FT
WITH A MIX OF SHORTER PERIOD SW WIND WAVES MIXING WITH LONGER
PERIOD UP TO 9 SEC SE SWELL. THE BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW
INTO THURS SHOULD KNOCK SEAS DOWN A BIT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR


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