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000
FXUS62 KILM 111421
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SLIGHT WARMING WILL BRING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM TUESDAY...AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REFLECT VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. TEMPERATURES IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD REACH
UPPER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THE
BEACHES...A RESULTANT BOUNDARY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER PRECIP WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CWA BEFORE 12Z. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z MODELS BEFORE
MAKING TWEAKS TO CURRENTLY-FORECAST POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE FL COAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENSURES PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
WHILE IT IS ON THE WEAK SIDE THERE WILL BE SOME PVA OUT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
WED. BY MIDDAY THE REMAINS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE
OFF THE COAST WITH DRIER AIR AND POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY
BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT. WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS WEAKENING A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE GAINING STRENGTH. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IT HELPS STRENGTHEN SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW IS
DRAGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WED...FOLLOWED BY STRONG
COLD ADVECTION. FROPA WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE DRY. THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALL OF THE
DYNAMICS...BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ALOFT...WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA.

AS MENTIONED STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS WED NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THU. TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO WED COME CRASHING DOWN WED NIGHT.
TEMP DROPS OF 30 DEGREES OR MORE ARE LIKELY WITH LOWS ENDING UP IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF 850 TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
ACCURATE HIGHS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MID 40S IN MOST AREAS.
NOT GOING QUITE THAT COLD BUT STILL KEEP MOST AREA BELOW 50. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN STUCK IN THE MID 40S DESPITE FULL SUN. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 30 TO 35 KT AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON. THU NIGHT HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. DEEP DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THINK MUCH OF THE AREA WILL END UP BELOW FREEZING FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...ARCTIC AIR MASS UNDERGOES RAPID MODIFICATION ON
FRI THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO. COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
MID MARCH SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS ENDING UP NEAR CLIMO.

EXITING SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS WEAK COASTAL TROUGH SAT BUT THIS
FEATURE REMAINS WEAK AND IS QUICKLY PUSHED NORTHEAST BY SOUTHWEST
MID LEVEL FLOW LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE TROUGH MAY GENERATE SOME
WEAK PRECIP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT BUT MORE LIKELY IT WILL
MANIFEST AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WEAKLY FORCED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
BUT SILL NOT SOLD ON PRECIP WITH FROPA. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THE DYNAMICS WILL BE LACKING. THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS SUN WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SAT...NEAR CLIMO. FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST SUN INTO MON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES SO CONFIDENCE ON THE TYPE OF EVENT IS LOW BUT
CHANCES OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO END THE PERIOD ARE HIGHER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL GIVE US ANOTHER
GREAT DAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH MIXING
AROUND MID MORNING...STRONGEST AROUND MAX HEATING.
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL BE
LOWERING...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3K FEET THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/MVFR ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM GETS ITS ACT
TOGETHER TO THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER WITHIN A KNOT OR TWO
OF FIFTEEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WED. SPEEDS
START OUT ON THE HIGH END OF 10 TO 15 KT BUT INCREASE TO A SOLID 20
KT BY MIDDAY AND 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS WED EVENING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION/OFFSHORE
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 25 KT FOR MUCH OF WED
NIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF THU. GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX LATE THU AS
CENTER OF HIGH MOVES CLOSER. WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO NORTH LATE THU
NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DROPPING UNDER 10 KT. FEEL SCA IS A SURE BET BUT
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT GALES WED NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCA
WED AND THU AND ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE GALE POTENTIAL.

STRONG AND PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE SEAS OVER 6 FT WED
MORNING WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. DOUBLE DIGIT
SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE LIKELY. DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW POST FRONT WILL KNOCK SEAS DOWN NEAR SHORE BUT
CLOSER TO 20 NM SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 6 FT INTO THU
AFTERNOON. SEAS DROP UNDER 5 FT THU EVENING AND TO 2 FT OR LESS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS FRI MORNING WILL
DRIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY FRI AFTERNOON BUT WEAK GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT INTO FRI EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AND
SAT WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY. SPEEDS INCREASE TO A
SOLID 15 KT LATE SAT AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED.
PASSAGE OF DRY COLD FRONT LATE SAT CAUSES WINDS TO VEER TO NORTHWEST
BUT LACK OF STRONG GRADIENT OR COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP SPEEDS 10 TO
15 KT. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2 FT OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL