Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 240535
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
135 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Trending over the next several days are drying and warming as an
upper low pulls away from the region...allowing higher pressure
to build in. This will result in temperatures well above normal
Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low pressure originating from the
Bahamas will bring a showery pattern through the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 130 AM Monday...POPs have been deleted for the remainder
of the overnight. This based on latest mosaic 88d reflectivity
trends and models indicating a more stable picture overnight given
the loss of the days heating. Much of the diurnal cu field has
dissipated leaving mostly clear skies. One of the last mid-level
vorts rotating around the upper low, will partially pass across
the FA overnight. Worse case scenario, scattered to possibly bkn
altocu or stratocu clouds may accompany or be produced by the
upper vort. This displayed by various model rh time heights for
locations across the FA, as well as model soundings. Will tweak
min temps lower by 1 to 3 degrees, mainly along and west of the
I-95 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...A quiet mid week period with drying and
warming trend as pesky upper low lifts off to the northeast and
ridge builds in. Overall high pressure begins to dominate with
center in the off shore waters of the southeast, north of
bahamas. The light southerly return flow combined with rising h5
heights will allow for temps to soar into the 80s with plenty of
May sunshine both days. Tuesday should see close to 30 degree
temp rises after a cool start. By Wednesday, some locations may
reach 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Very warm summertime conditions forecast
for the end of the week and the weekend as Bermuda high spins
offshore and mid-level ridging blossoms from the Gulf
Coast...moves overhead...and expands across the southeast. This is
a pattern that suggests above normal temperatures...but also
increasing humidity on the SW return surface flow. However...the
ridging aloft will keep the mid-level dry thanks to
subsidence...so diurnal convection will be isolated at best...and
other than Thursday thanks to a weak impulse moving overhead...the
Thu-Sat timeframe will be dry with temps approaching 90
inland...low/mid 80s closer to the coast.

Uncertainty increases for the weekend and into the Memorial Day
holiday. The surface and mid-level ridge drift north as a weakness
develops beneath it. Within this weakness a trough of low pressure
is progged to move out of the Bahamas and drift slowly towards the
southeast coast. The GFS has been incredibly consistent with this
feature...despite large fluctuations in its position and
intensity...while the ECM/CMC...which have been showing a weak
trough...have jumped on board with a more significant system with
the 12z suite today as well. GFS Ensembles are almost entirely in
agreement with the op-run also. While it is far too early to mention
any actual low pressure affecting the area...there is increasing
confidence that deepening easterly flow connected to the tropics
will create more unsettled weather this weekend and into Monday.
Have trimmed highs a bit for Sun/Mon while also ramping up precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 06Z...Patchy MVFR mist/fog til 12z then VFR through the
valid TAF cycle. Light to calm winds will become W-SW today
4-8 kt. Coastal terminal can expected 20012kt between 18z-22z
due to the sea breeze influence. Winds light to calm aft 1z-2z.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Monday...Looking at mainly offshore nw to nnw winds
this evening and overnight as the upper and sfc lows begin to
accelerate ne, further away from the area. This will allow ridging
from sfc high pressure from the west to extend into the area. The
sfc pg will remain relatively relaxed, yielding around 10 kt for
wind speeds. Significant seas will run around 2 ft...except a few
3 footers from Cape Fear northward. Wind driven waves will remain
a low input to the overall significant seas equation. Basically
1 to occasional 2 foot ESE waves at 8 to 9 second periods will
dominate the significant seas.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Quiet marine conditions expected through
mid week as high pressure takes residence over the off shore
waters off the southeast coast. Overall expect a light southerly
return flow to set up. Near shore seas will experience some chop
in the afternoons due to a strong sea breeze setting up as temps
warm well into the 80s...more typical May conditions. Seas will
generally be 3 ft or less.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...S winds around Bermuda high pressure will
be predominant Thu/Fri before winds back more to the E/SE late in
the period. Gradient around the offshore high remains weak...so
winds Thu/Fri will be 10 kts or less...and the combination of
these light winds and a 2ft/8sec SE swell will drive wave heights
of 1-2 ft Thu...2-3 ft Friday. Late Friday and Saturday confidence
decreases as a wave of low pressure may emerge from the Bahamas
and approach the waters. This will drive increasing easterly winds
and wave heights building to 3-4 ft...possibly higher if a longer
period swell develops.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN/8


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