Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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325
FXUS62 KILM 252338
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
638 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record high temperatures today will fall abruptly behind a
cold front this evening. Much cooler temperatures expected
Sunday as high pressure builds into the Carolinas. These cool
temperatures will be short lived as a warm front lifts north
early Tuesday. Near record high temperatures expected again by
the middle of next week before a cold front crosses the area on
Thursday. A return to winter like temperatures is possible by
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 600 PM Saturday...A strong cold front was moving across
the Forecast Area. On the much drier side of the front, dewpoints
have fallen into the 30s across portions of the area. Dramatically
lower dewpoints across the Pee Dee will move across the
remainder of the I-95 corridor and across the coast through 8-9
pm. Deep westerly flow has precluded any convection this far
south. Where better dynamics were positioned, there were some
showers and storms across VA and NE North Carolina this eve.
These storms will continue to move away from the area.

Breezy SW winds will shift to W and NW with the passage of the
front and then to N overnight with the reinforcing push of colder
and drier air. Sustained wind speeds will be as high as 15 to
25 mph with higher gusts. Wind speeds will decrease overnight.

Dewpoints across the upstate of South Carolina and western
North Carolina were in the teens and 20s and these dewpoints
will make a run for the area. Temperatures upstream were in the
30s and 40s. Overnight, lows across the eastern Carolinas will
finally resemble more normal levels, upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...The flow aloft will de-amplify this period
with nearly zonal flow aloft. At the sfc, Sunday will see the
effects from Cool Canadian high pressure affecting the area with
temps basically at or slightly below the norm thru Sun night. With
fast flow aloft, the center of this sfc high is progged to push
across the coastal areas Sunday night and to well offshore and east
of NC during Monday. Return flow around the departing high will
result in WAA under SE to S flow during Monday with max temps
rebounding back to around 70 away from the immediate coast. There is
a weak mid-level s/w trof that passes just north of the FA during
Mon night. Enough moisture accompany`s this s/w as well a SE influx
of limited moisture at the low levels off the Atlantic. Have
indicated POPs increasing to low chance Mon evening and modest
chance later Mon night. QPF will be on the light side, under one
quarter of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...A warm front will be lifting north of the
area Tuesday morning, with very warm conditions expected through mid-
week. Temperatures Tuesday will be well into the 70s, and by
Wednesday with strong WAA and better coverage of sunshine, record
highs may be approached (low 80s for March 1st). While it will
likely be very warm both Tue/Wed, an early-spring unstable
environment will likely permit aftn showers and isolated tstms
across the area, more widespread on Tuesday than Wednesday. A strong
cold front will then cross the Carolinas Thursday with a good chance
for showers and tstms during the morning into the early aftn, before
much cooler and drier weather advects into the region. Thursday will
likely again be warm, with potentially an atypical diurnal curve
through the aftn behind the FROPA, before a trough digs down the
eastern seaboard behind the front. After several days well above
normal, it appears winter will make a return for the first wknd in
March with highs and lows below climo Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 00Z...VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period.
W to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT with gusts over 20 KT attm will
become W at all terminals by 03Z and NW at all terminals by 06Z
and gusty character will diminish overnight. N winds invof 10 KT
are expected after sunrise.

Extended Outlook...VFR. VSBY and ceilings lowered to MVFR/IFR
with pcp Mon night into Tues and again with SHWRs on Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 PM Saturday...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
all waters through 6 am Sunday. A strong cold front will sweep
across the waters this eve, bringing colder and dramatically
drier air across the waters on a developing northerly surge. SW
winds early will shift to W and NW with the passage of the
front 8-9 pm and then to N late eve and overnight. Wind speeds
will be on the order of 20 to 25 kt. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...Sfc high pressure centered just west of the
spine of the Appalachians at Sunday Daybreak. A tightened sfc pg and
diminishing CAA will keep winds frisky for the 1st half of Sunday.
Progressive flow aloft and translating this to the sfc will result
in the high`s center moving to the Eastern Carolinas early by Sun
evening and to well offshore and east of the NC mainland by daybreak
Mon. Winds will diminish to around 10 kt late Sun thru Sun night.
Return E to SE flow on the back-side of the departing high will
increase across the local waters during Monday...further veering to
the S and SW and slightly increasing to around 15 kt Mon night.
Significant seas will drop to 1 to 3 ft by Sun night into Mon
followed by a building trend Mon night, remaining just below any
Advisory or Cautionary thresholds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Gusty SW winds ahead of a cold front
will plague the waters Tue and Wed, with 10-15 kt winds Tuesday
rising to 15-20 kts on Wednesday. FROPA is expected early
Thursday accompanied by showers and a wind shift to the W/NW
with continued speeds of 15-20 kts through late Thursday.
Highest seas will occur late Wednesday into Thursday just ahead
of the cold front, with 4-7 ft waves are expected and an SCA may
be required. Otherwise, seas will be 2-4 ft during Tuesday on
the light winds, and then Thursday thanks to the offshore
component.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...RAN



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