Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 251056
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
656 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low over the Carolinas will move to the mid Atlantic
coast by this evening. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will build
into the Ohio Valley in the wake of this system. On Wednesday,
weak high pressure will move east while low pressure and a cold
front move into the western Great Lakes and Mississippi River
Valley. This cold front will push into the region on Thursday,
bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
will remain above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level low rotating near the coast of South Carolina this
morning will pivot northeast to a position off the mid Atlantic
region by this evening. Atlantic moisture funneling west between
this low and high pressure to the north across southeast Canada
will bring some clouds to the region. A low level jet pointing
westward may even bring a few showers close to central Ohio
toward sunrise. Clouds should thicken toward morning...then
scatter out by afternoon as the low level jet weakens while
ridging develops at the surface and aloft.

Temperatures should be able to warm into the lower and perhaps
mid 70s once clouds scatter.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
For tonight, upper level low will continue to pivot toward the
southern New England coast. Any lower level clouds across the
region should dissipate after sunset, leaving just some high
level cloudiness as high pressure at the surface and aloft
reside over the forecast area. Overnight lows will fall into the
lower 50s east to the mid 50s west.

Mid level ridge axis will shift east on Wednesday while low
pressure and a frontal system push east into the western Great
Lakes and middle/lower Mississippi River Valley. We will still
be between systems with a good deal of sunshine expected along
with locally breezy southerly winds. Highs will warm into the
lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Wednesday evening, mid-level ridging will have shifted east
of the Ohio Valley, exiting the coast on Thursday. As this
occurs, the pattern will become very amplified, with a feed of
Gulf moisture stretching well north into the Great Lakes. A
500mb trough will be rotating around a slow-moving low over
northern Minnesota, driving a cold front into the region on
Thursday morning. Not looking like a favorable setup for any
strong storms, with deep-layer southerly flow along a stretched-
out north-to-south cold front. There is also a degree of
difference in how the overlaying trough is handled in the models
-- appearing far more well defined on ECMWF/NAM forecasts as
opposed to recent GFS runs. Ultimately, a relatively quick shot
of rain (perhaps with some embedded thunder) will move through
the region on Thursday (mainly the first half of the day) before
the region ends up on the cool side of the boundary on Thursday
night.

By Friday, another big wave in the pattern will begin to develop
over the central plains, as height rises over the Ohio Valley allow
the surface boundary to return as a warm front. An initial round (or
perhaps a couple rounds) of precipitation will spread into the area
along and north of the boundary on Friday night into Saturday,
before much of the area ends up in the warm sector going into
Sunday. With a stronger (and closer) surface cyclone expected with
this system, chances of rain appear more widespread late Sunday into
Sunday night -- perhaps with more instability than the Thursday
system as well.

Temperatures appear likely to remain above normal for most of the
forecast period. The front on Thursday will result in a notable
gradient from west-to-east, with a more typical distribution of
temperatures on Friday and into the weekend, with the warmest values
in the southeastern ILN CWA. Behind the second cold front, a
significant drop in max temps is expected for Monday, and the
forecast has been adjusted downward for the first part of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level low rotating near the coast of South Carolina this
morning will pivot northeast to a position off the mid Atlantic
region by this evening. Atlantic moisture funneling west between
this low and high pressure to the north across southeast Canada
will bring some clouds to the region. A low level jet pointing
westward may even bring a few showers close to the KCMH/KLCK
terminals toward sunrise. BKN-OVC ceilings should scatter out
by afternoon as the low level jet weakens while ridging develops
at the surface and aloft. Ceilings should remain VFR.

For tonight, upper level low will continue to pivot toward the
southern New England coast. Any lower level clouds across the
region should dissipate after sunset, leaving just some high
level cloudiness as high pressure at the surface and aloft
reside over the forecast area.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hickman


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