Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 142328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
628 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Surface high pressure will build into the region early tonight
before a weak surface low tracks through the Great Lakes region
Friday. A weak cold front will brush the area Friday before
surface ridging returns Friday night. Persistent southwesterly
flow will bring warmer temperatures into the area for the
upcoming weekend.


The low stratus deck that has lingered through most of the
afternoon is finally showing signs of breaking, yielding a mix
of sun and clouds in both the northern and southern quarter of
the FA (north of I-70 and near and south of the Ohio River),
with still a bit of clouds through the center of the area.
Nevertheless, with the extensive cloud cover through the first
handful of heating hours, temperatures have largely been held
close to morning lows thus far (with rises only noted in last
couple of hours). This being said, with the gradual decrease in
clouds through the late afternoon hours, highs may be hit late
this afternoon before beginning to fall once again this evening.

Mid/high clouds will continue to stream eastward into the heart
of the Ohio Valley tonight into early Friday, but tranquil
weather conditions are anticipated during this period. Although
winds should be light, the effects of a pretty thick layer of
mid and high clouds should prevent keep temperatures from
falling too much. Went close to guidance for lows ranging from
the mid teens in central and west-central Ohio to around 20
degrees in northern Kentucky.


On Friday, a mid-level S/W and attendant weak surface low will
track through the Great Lakes region, with most of the
appreciable impacts remaining north/northeast of the ILN FA.
Nevertheless, some isolated to scattered flurries and light snow
showers may reach far enough south/southeast to clip the far
north/northeast portions of the ILN FA during the afternoon
hours. As such, added slight chance and chance PoPs to account
for this potential -- but think that accumulation, if any, will
be a dusting at most.

Cloud cover will be most expansive north of the Ohio River
during the day on Friday, with some sunshine anticipated near
the river and points southward. With the anticipated cloud
cover (or lack thereof), went slightly below guidance in the
north and slightly above guidance in the south.

A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield a gradual
increase in the west-southwesterly flow Friday afternoon, with
gusts to 20-25 kts possible during the afternoon. Winds will
subside toward the late evening hours as a surface ridge axis
begins to translate west to east across the region towards the
end of the short term period.


Broad mid level ridging to our southwest with surface front lifting
north into the southern Great Lakes Saturday. Southerly low level
flow develops Saturday with temperatures warming a little above
normal. Expect highs Saturday to range from the upper 30s north to
the upper 40s south.

In waa pattern moisture spreading back into the area Sunday. Will
spread likely to high chance pops into the region. Thermal features
suggest a mix of rain and snow at the onset changing to mainly a
rain event. Sundays temperatures to run a little above normal with
highs from 40 to 45.

In split flow regime model solutions differ on phasing and timing of
pcpn. Will follow a progressive soln with pcpn ending during the day
Monday and then re-introduce a slight chc late Monday night into
early Tuesday with mean trof developing across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures looks to continue a little above normal with Monday and
Tuesdays highs ranging from the the lower/mid 40s north to around 50

In northwest flow regime surface high pressure to build into the
region at mid week. This high will offer dry weather with the next
chance of rain holding off until Thursday afternoon/Thursday night.

Temperatures close to normal next Wednesday with highs from the
upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. Reading warm above normal
Thursday with highs of 45 to 50.


With a ridge of high pressure building in, kept TAFs VFR. Sky
cover consisting of high clouds tonight will be augmented by low
level moisture bringing ceilings around 3500 feet on Friday,
according to model soundings. Increasing west winds carrying
that low level moisture will gust over 20 knots Friday
afternoon when the pressure gradient will tighten in response to
a disturbance crossing Lake Erie. Expect precip and lower
ceilings/vsbys to stay north of TAF sites.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Sunday
into Monday.




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