Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 222017
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
417 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will move southeast into the
mid Atlantic states tonight. Southerly winds on the back side of
the high will bring a warming trend for the rest of the week. A
large low pressure system will move into the area over the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered to the north of the area will move
southeast tonight. Northwest upper flow will bring some cirrus
into the southwest half of the forecast area overnight. Do not
expect this to have much if any impact on temperatures. Lows
will be well below normal with the coldest readings in central
Ohio where there will be the least wind and fewest clouds. A
freeze warning will remain in effect along and south of the Ohio
River where the growing season started abnormally early.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low level flow will veer around to the southeast Thursday. A
weak warm front will lift north late Thursday into Thursday
evening which will bring winds around to the south with wind
speeds slowly increasing later Thursday night. 12Z model suite
suggests that a few showers could occur near the warm front
across the northern counties. Further south, low levels will
likely be too dry. Low chance PoPs seems sufficient.

Temperature forecast is on the cooler side of guidance. Expect
lows Thursday night to be in the evening with rising
temperatures later in the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday continues a strong warm push with the warm front lifted
north of area by Friday morning with the forecast area firmly in
the warm sector as the upper low cuts off and slowly progresses
through the central plains toward the area. With the tightening
gradient between the upper ridge off the SE coast and the
strenghtening low, aabove normal temperatures for Friday with a
strong inversion over the region, but with good mixing allowing
for wind gusts up to 25 or even 30kts.

As the low winds its way into the western Ohio Valley, there are
some differences between the NAM/GFS/GFS Ensemble solution and
the ECMWF with most models creating a stacked and slow moving
upper low, whereas the ECMWF shows a more progressive and
northerly solution with the low, and brings in precipitation
sooner than other models. Have leaned more toward the
NAM/GFS/Blended solutions but sped up timing slightly allowing
for the potential for an earlier precipitation onset. while
instability not tremendous with this system, continued with
mention of thunder, along with efficient moisture transport
bringing the potential for locally heavy rain especially
Saturday night into early Sunday. The additional concern is a
continued GFS trend in increasing low level wind shear as the
stacked low approaches the region by 12z Sunday. Will have to
continue to monitor for potential severe threat Saturday night
into early Sunday.

As the low finally becomes more muted a more zonal pattern
dominates the region for Monday through Wednesday. After a
brief and weak area of high pressure transitions through the
region from Sunday night into early Monday, it will be followed
by a progressively moving shortwave to bring another round of
precipitation late Monday into the early Tuesday afternoon.

Weak high pressure begins to build in from the west, with the
region under NW flow aloft for Wednesday with some lingering
showers. Dry conditions for Wednesday night as the weak high
builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail. The few to scattered stratocumulus
across the region will dissipate before 00Z. Otherwise will
only see some cirrus spreading into the region during the latter
part of the period. Northeast winds will diminish to less than
10 kt and then slowly veer tonight into Thursday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Saturday night
into Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for OHZ077>079-081-088.
KY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...


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