Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 010607
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
207 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE
LATTER PARTS OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER FROM
WARREN/CLERMONT COUNTIES OVER TO HOCKING COUNTY. KEPT THEM IN THE
FORECAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OF SO.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NW HALF OF
THE FA. IN THE SOUTH...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE ERN U.S. TROF WILL SPREAD SOME CI THRU THE SRN TAFS
ALONG WITH MAYBE KEEPING THE AC GOING.

LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE WEEKS END. A
MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A KINK IN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS WILL PERMIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT A MINIMUM...SO SCATTERED GARDEN-VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 OR IN
THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY...RATHER NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER.
31.00Z AND 31.00Z GEFS/NAEFS ANOMALIES SUGGEST LOW/MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS PWATS ALL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE VERY LOW STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ON ECMWF/GEFS MOS DATA...AND DETERMINISTIC MOS
TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SUMMERTIME NORMALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THUS...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...LOWER
80S IN CENTRAL/WESTCENTRAL OHIO TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN NORTHERN
KENTUCKY WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL SUMMERTIME WX FOR EARLY
AUGUST.

IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES...STILL UNCERTAINTY ON SUNDAY. RECENT
TRENDS IN DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF IS FOR SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSION/QUICKNESS IN THE SHARP MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH WHATEVER WEAK
FORCING MORE FOCUSED EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL
MIDLEVEL TROUGHING IN A POSI-TILT FASHION FROM PA BACK INTO THE
OZARKS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY SEPARATES FROM THE FLOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BUT
THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL TO FOCUS ON FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
WITH SUCH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE TO THINK THAT IF ANYTHING
OCCURS TO THE WEST /SOUTHWEST OHIO/SERN IND/FAR NRN KY IT IS GOING
TO BE AWFULLY LIGHT/ISOLATED.

SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND TROUGHING
IN THE MIDLEVELS BECOMES FLATTER AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE SUNDAY WAVE. TUESDAY I AM PROBABLY A
LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH...MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS STILL PRETTY NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS SOME INFLUENCE/MINOR
LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK RETURN FLOW THAT
MAY PROMOTE A FEW STORMS TO SAG FROM MI/IND INTO OUR NORTH TUES/TUES
NIGHT. NOT THRILLED ABOUT THE CHANCES AND I MAY PULL THIS CHANCE ON
NEXT ISSUANCE IF SIGNAL DOESN/T IMPROVE.

A LITTLE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE PUSH BY THURSDAY AS FLOW
INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE. OUR BL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE
INCREASING BY THEN /MID UPPER 60S DWPTS/ VIA EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SO
THIS IS WORTH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS.

OVERALL...SUMMER WX FINALLY RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH 80S BY
DAY...60S BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KILN ARE DISSIPATING AND THEREFORE HAVE VCSH
MENTION IN FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF AND THEN KEEP TAF SITES
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TAF SITES WILL START OUT VFR
HOWEVER FOG IS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
TAF SITES DROPPING DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH
VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT KILN. TAF SITES
WILL RETURN TO VFR DURING THE MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY.

EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY HOWEVER DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. HAVE A VCTS MENTION AT ALL BUT KCVG FOR AWHILE
FRIDAY NIGHT. ACTIVITY AT KCVG APPEARS MORE ISOLATED DURING THIS
TIME AND THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT OF THE KCVG TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...NOVAK






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