Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 311411
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1011 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today, bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms. After the front travels south of the
region tonight, high pressure and a dry airmass will build in
through the weekend. Cooler than normal temperatures accompanying
the high will gradually warm to near normal by Sunday as the high
shifts east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only a few minor adjustments to the forecast for today. With the
couple of light showers in the nw counties, adjusted the current PoPs
down and went with only showers for the ptype. Gradually expanded
the PoPs through 18Z and switched from showers tp thunderstorms by
the afternoon hours.

As for temperatures, adjusted them down a few degrees in the se
from around 90 to the upper 80s. The rest of the area looked
okay.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will persist early tonight
as the front moves to Kentucky. Eastern locations being closer to
the main body of moisture and forcing will have a higher chance
for measurable precip. Precip chances will diminish to nil by
Thursday morning as drier air filters in on a northerly low level
flow.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will then follow the upper
trough to the Great Lakes. The dry airmass accompanying the high
will keep precip out of the picture Thursday through Friday.

Cold advection in the circulation around the high will lead to the
first below normal temperatures in over a week, with highs mainly in
the 70s both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will settle in across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley Friday night into Saturday. It will be dry with
temperatures at first a little bit below normal on Friday with
temperatures modifying to near normal on Saturday.

For the remainder of the extended, Sunday through Tuesday, quiet
weather is expected as a mid level ridge builds over the region
while a closed mid level low rotates off the Atlantic seaboard. This
"blocky" pattern will provide dry weather with a gradual warming
trend.  Highs in the 80s on Sunday will warm into the upper 80s to
around 90 by Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be about 10
degrees above normal for early September. It will be great weather
to end the unofficial last weekend of summer while greeting
meteorological fall.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level CIGS have mitigated the development of widespread dense
fog. MVFR visibility restrictions at KLUK and KILN will improve
quickly after sunrise.

A cold front will sag down across our area today. The combination
of this and daytime destabilization will lead to scattered thunderstorm
development from late morning through the afternoon. Have selected
the best time for storms in a tempo group with VFR CIGS continuing.
In the wake of the front, expect decreasing clouds tonight as
surface high pressure begins to build in from the north. Although
drier air will begin to filter into the region on north to northeast
winds tonight, some brief MVFR fog will be possible at fog favorable
KLUK and KILN locations.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...AR



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