Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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844
FXUS61 KILN 082131
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO PERMIT A MIX OF SNOW AND SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SCIOTO VALLEY WHERE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STILL IN PLAY. WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE CORES OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR SO BUT THE
OVERALL AREA AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL.

H5 S/W ROTATING EWD THROUGH NRN KY AROUND UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN NW
OH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE
OF THEM FROM CINCINNATI TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
TOWARDS PORTSMOUTH. HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED HERE TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL FORECAST HAD ME LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN MUCH OF
THE REGION. AFTER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAXIMA SE OF CINCY METRO
AREA...THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL
TRAVERSE EAST WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS
TO BE IN NVA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT
ARE APPARENT IN THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING.

USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL
BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS
OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT
ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW
PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW
CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING
COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING
LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15
DEGREES.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING
CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECWMF/GEM
SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY.
DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET.

DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO
THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES WITH
THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT THEM TO
LOWER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046-
     055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK



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