Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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303
FXUS61 KILN 111001
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
501 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will eject northeast from the Plains into
the Great lakes today into Monday. Snow will continue to spread
east, ahead of this system today with accumulation expected north
of I-70. Further south, rain will be the main precipitation type.
As warmer air is pulled into the system, snow will turn to a mix
of rain snow this afternoon into tonight and then end early Monday
with the passage of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Waa/isentropic lift pcpn has developed overnight across portions
of west central Ohio. This precipitation has fallen in the form
of snow with a total of 1 to 2 inches expected acrs the far
northwest by sunrise. Quincy in Logan county, recently reported
1.5 inches.

Expect WAA pcpn to continue to slide east across ILN/s nrn
counties this morning with pcpn filling in from the west durg the
afternoon as favorable lift develops, which is associated with 8H
55 to 60 kt southerly low level jet.

Expect pcpn to remain snow across the far north though most of the
day, with a rain/snow mix developing across the central and mainly
rain far south.

Eventually under the influence of waa, the entire cwa turns over
to rain tonight. An additional additional inch or two of snow
accumulation is possible prior to the change to rain across the
far north. Have a storm total of 2 to 4 inches and have continued
a winter weather advisory across Hardin, Mercer and Auglaize
counties. A very sharp gradient of snowfall will exist with these
counties on the southern edge of the accumulating snow.

Temperatures today will warm to the mid 30s far north to the
lower 40s far south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Under the influence of waa surface temperatures will continue to
rise tonight with a non-diurnal temperature trace. Expect rain to
be the dominant precip type across the CWA tonight.

AS the surface low tracks through the Great Lakes late
tonight/early Monday, a cold front will sweep east through ILN/s
FA Monday morning. This will end precipitation chances from west
to east. Precipitation looks to outrun the cold air, ending prior
to getting cold enough to change to rain. As drying takes place
allowing for some afternoon sunshine. Expect highs from the lower
30s nw to the mid 40s se.

Westerly flow aloft with surface high pressure building east
across the region Monday night early Tuesday. Weak front to cross
the area Tuesday with a lack of moisture. Have just allowed for
some clouds with this front. Lows Monday night from the lower 20s
nw to the lower 30s se. Highs on Tuesday from the upper 20s nw to
the lower 40s se.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There will be a pretty tight gradient of temperatures Tuesday
night with the passage of the upper low over central and then SE
Ontario, with the weak ridging in the south. The only potential
for precipitation will come in the form of light snow showers in
NW flow with the passage of the upper low, but limited moisture
available.

More significant Cold advection and dry conditions will continue the
below normal temperatures through the work week, with single digit
overnight lows Wednesday night and Thursday night. For Friday into
Saturday, moisture returns to the region with the passage of
another shortwave, with precipitation onset beginning as snow and
then changing over to rain during the day on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moisture is increasing ahead of low pressure. Snow is developing
near northern sites and will probably reduce flight conditions
there to MVFR early in the forecast. Rain will then overspread all
sites later in the forecast. MVFR is expected at all sites with
the rain. CVG may see IFR ceilings late in its 30 hour TAF in
lingering low level moisture behind the rain. Winds will start out
of the southeast under 10 knots, increasing to around 12 knots out
of the south by mid day. A shift to west is forecast at CVG late
in the forecast.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday
morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for OHZ026-
     034-035.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...Coniglio



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