Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 120443
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1243 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO TRAVEL SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST. LATEST IR SATL IMGRY SHOWS DEBRIS CIRRUS
SPILLING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE INTO OHIO. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. THOUGH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
THE ILN CWA...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S AIDED BY
WARM ADVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY. WITH A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY TO THE OHIO RIVER. CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG
WILL ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFT FORMATION...AND A STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE AND SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS CELLS
AND LINES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED AT A SHALLOW ANGLE BY THE UPPER
FLOW...RESULTING IN SLOW MOVEMENT. IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING
PRECIPITABLE WATER 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THIS RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY AT SITES THAT ARE
UNDER TRAINING THUNDERSTORM CELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S ALTHOUGH A FEW
80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WORKS
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEDNESDAY.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DAYTON IS 70...CINCINNATI
72...AND COLUMBUS 72.  THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR THE DATE FOR
DAYTON IS 72 IN 1918 AND 1940...FOR CINCINNATI IT IS 72 IN
1892...AND FOR COLUMBUS IT IS 70 IN 1892.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ONLY WEATHER
STORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME FOG AT
KLUK DURING THE NORMAL PRE-SUNRISE TIME PERIOD.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
(WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH INDIANA DURING MID-DAY...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES OHIO. A VCSH HAS BEEN KEPT IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO THE AREA REMAINS VERY
LOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS






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