Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 211947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
347 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK. COOOLER AIR THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE
WEEK WITH BE REPLACED WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHRA JUST EAST OF CWA WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST. UPPER
LOW SWINGING ACROSS GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS RETURNING WITH SPOTTY -SHRA
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING. SMALL POPS THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. LOW TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU PERIOD. SOME CU/STRATOCU IN THE
COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY. COOLEST AIR OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH TEMPS
NOT GETTING OUT OF 60S. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN TYPICAL COOL LOCATIONS.
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WARMS FROM
MONDAY. MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC WITH WARMING BUT NOT UNCOMMON
TO GET 30 DEGREE RISE THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPS A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO
WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH RIDGING
OVERHEAD...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY
MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF TAF SITES. WEST WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW FOLLOWING DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MISS TAF
SITES. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PADGETT
NEAR TERM...PADGETT
SHORT TERM...PADGETT
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO





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