Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 291953
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
353 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED TO A CUMULUS LAYER.
WHERE THIS HAS HAPPENED IN THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 70 FOR A HIGH TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO FEATURE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SOME OF THIS HAS LIFTED TO A CUMULUS LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WARMING UP COMPARED TO AREAS ALONG THE OH RIVER WHERE TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING BUT MOST
OF THE DAYS HEATING WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW MORNING
TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. A SATURATED AIR MASS SETTING UP TOMORROW WILL ALLOW FOR JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. SOME HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TO DEVELOP BUT THE ONLY IMPACT FROM
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASED HEATING HEADING INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60. THUS WILL PUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IF SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS...FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS SHORTWAVE SWINGS
ACROSS OUR AREA OR THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK FURTHER REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS. AS SUCH...WILL FORECAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP POPS LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY...INTO THE 60S ABOUT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOME HEATING CONTINUES. SOME OF THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS TO 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE LOW CIGS LIFT. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 12Z AND AFTERWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHALLENBERGER
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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