Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 201800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
20/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACRS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RECENT STLT
IMAGES SHOW SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING ACRS WRN/CNTL LA AND SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LCH TERMINAL. MET/MAV MOS DIFFER IN REGARD TO
CIGS LIFTING/BREAKING BUT MODEL LOW LVL RH PROGS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WEDGE OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO LCH/AEX AND
EVENTUALLY BPT WHILE LFT/ARA WILL PROBABLY SEE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT.
THUS...EXPECT MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AT AEX BY MID-AFTN...IFR TO
MVFR BY MID-AFTN AT LCH/BPT THEN VFR THIS EVENING...AND LIFR/IFR
TO MVFR AT LFT/ARA THIS EVENING. NELY WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 KT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THAT ALL THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD-
MOVING SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GULF HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME BREAKS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE THICK STRATUS OVERCAST AS DRIER AIR TO
OUR NE BEGINS WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. ALL IN ALL
INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES STILL LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED THIS MORNING...THUS NO UPDATE IS ON TAP.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR STRATUS AT 4-7
HUNDRED FEET WILL START THE TAF PACKAGES AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A FRONTAL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO BREAK AND SKIES CLEAR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH VFR RETURNING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA...ALL OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY AND DEVELOPING
TROUGHINESS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THUS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
THAT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS
EVE...HOWEVER BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING WINDS TO BE NEAR OR INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO START THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL MORNING
LOWS...BUT WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LIKELY INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTS MAY GET OVER GALE FORCE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  43  61  48 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  60  45  63  50 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  56  39  60  45 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  58  45  63  50 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...04




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.