Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 250449
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1149 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Given similarities in forecast time-height sections over the past
day or so...went with a fairly persistent trend in this set of
TAFs. Basically expecting MVFR ceilings to develop around sunrise
at the southern terminals...possibly sooner at KBPT where some
lower clouds are already hanging around...and shortly thereafter
at KAEX. Also threw in a tempo for light fog at KAEX late tonight
based on lighter winds and climatology. The main story for
tomorrow again appears to be elevated srly winds...with ceilings
generally rising beginning mid/late morning.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...A very mild and quiet night ongoing. Forecast on
track and no evening update will be required.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...A surface ridge is centered over the southeast
states while a ridge aloft is also over the north central gulf
coast. This is keeping a moist south to southeast flow in place
while suppressing most shower activity outside of a few small
diurnal showers well inland. Nearly the same conditions will
prevail Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday and upper low will move across the
southwest states eroding the local upper ridge. This will allow
for rain chances to increase as multiple upper disturbances move
around the base of the larger trof. No frontal boundary is
expected to move into the region keeping most of the convection
diurnally driven.

Late in the weekend and into early next week a ridge aloft will
build back into the area suppressing pops and warming the high
temps back into the upper 80s to low 90s.

MARINE...Multiple low pressure systems will move across the
plains through Saturday. This will keep winds moderate. Late in
the weekend high pressure will settle back over the region
decreasing the wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  73  86 /  10  20  10  30
LCH  74  86  74  84 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  88  73  87 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  75  87  75  85 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



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