Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 292015
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THIS WEEKEND...EXPECTING A
WET ONE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT I AM HOLDING OFF FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...AS RAIN TOTALS DONT WARRANT IT ATTM...BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR LOCAL AREAS...SO BE PREPARED FOR THAT SCENARIO.
ALSO...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...PER SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.

MODELS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...AS GFS SHOWS A CLOSED OFF MID/UPPER LOW
MOVING DOWN AND MEANDERING ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE MONDAY-FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD SPELL SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING
LOCATED TO OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD INDICATE NOT AS MUCH RAIN.

SO WITH UNCERTAINTY...CARRYING 40-60 POPS NEXT WEEK...TRENDING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT LESS THAN THE GFS.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR CLIMO FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WHILE IT IS RAINING...TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  85  68  83 /  30  60  50  60
LCH  72  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  60
LFT  72  86  70  84 /  20  60  50  60
BPT  73  85  70  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15



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