Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 270310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1010 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Main forecast issue at this time appears to be the chances of
strong/severe convection to our nw actually making it to the
forecast area later tonight. Regional 88Ds show scattered
supercells associated with advancing srn Plains shortwave and
increasing low level jetting across the Red River Valley...with a
few extending farther sw into cntl TX. Not seeing much in the
guidance that calls for this activity to actually make it to our
far nwrn zones prior to daybreak...but have updated POPs to carry
slim chances to just outside our forecast area. Also threw in a
patchy fog mention over our far sern zones where winds will be a
little lighter overnight.

Update out shortly.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

VFR and TEMPO MVFR conditions will continue across the area for
the next several hours before giving way to MVFR ceilings late
this evening. Southerly winds are expected to remain sustained
5-10 knots which should limit any fog development tonight. MVFR
conditions will continue through mid morning tomorrow before
giving way to VFR conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

Wx map shows high pressure over the eastern Gulf with low pressure
over the Plains yielding southerly flow over the region. GOES-16
visible satellite imagery shows the scattered/broken layer of
clouds over most of the region. Temps this afternoon are near
80/lower 80s, likely to rise a couple more degrees the next 2

The forecast this week will continue above normal temperatures,
with 3 more disturbances to affect the region.

The next upper level disturbance affecting OK this afternoon will
move across the region Monday, with the best chance of showers
and thunderstorms across Central Louisiana and north of the
region. SPC has shifted marginal risk of severe thunderstorms
further north. For Tuesday, our region expected to remain precip

By Wednesday and Thursday, the next upper level low will bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday
morning, with the best chances Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Models are a bit quicker on ending the precipitation
Thursday afternoon. SPC has portions of the region in 15% chance
for severe thunderstorms, and as expected, will be finer tuned the
closer we get to the event.

Friday, our region expected to remain precip free. By Saturday,
the next disturbance is a little harder to pinpoint with
intensity/timing, as significant spread continues among the long
range guidance.


Southerly flow will continue to increase a bit tonight and Monday
as the pressure gradient increases between high pressure to the
east and low pressure over the Plains. Expect winds and seas to
diminish Tuesday, but increase once again Wednesday and Thursday
as another low pressure system approaches from the west, with
showers and thunderstorms likely by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.



AEX  65  83  65  83 /  10  40  10  10
LCH  67  82  68  82 /  10  30  10  10
LFT  67  83  68  84 /  10  20  10  10
BPT  68  82  68  82 /  10  20  10  10




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