Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 181719
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1219 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
For the 08/18/17 1800 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Deep layer ridging prevails across the region today, which
should act to keep convection fairly isolated in nature. Already
seeing some shower activity along the coast and over East Central
LA. Maintained VCTS all sites for the rest of the afternoon amid
an otherwise VFR forecast with west winds under 12KT. Calm winds
and a clear sky expected tonight. Could see some light and brief
VSBY restrictions toward morning, but will omit from forecasts at
this time owing to low confidence in temporal/spatial details.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1040 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

UPDATE...Minor westward expansion of low end pops across
the area for this afternoon. Otherwise all looks good.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 707 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
For 12z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
Not many changes to previous TAF thinking this morning. Seeing a
little bit of light fog this morning but that should burn off
shortly. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through the
period. Hard to rule out at least widespread convection today
given the moist unstable airmass in place across the region and
lack of good capping per forecast soundings...thus have retained
the inherited VCTS mention all sites other than KBPT. Will let
later shifts better refine low cloud/light fog threat for late
tonight.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Area remains under a flat ridge along the northern Gulf coast
today. Thus making for another tricky convective forecast. At this
time expect bulk of the convection will remain to the north of the
forecast area, however with moist unstable air will can not rule
out some activity along any outflow boundaries from the north.
This would mainly be during or shortly after peak heating and
along the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area.

Also inherited a heat advisory. This mornings guidance is not a
bullish on heat index values getting up to criteria, especially in
the potential convection and it appears to show drier air mixing
down at the other locations. However the past few days dewpoints
have stayed up a little more than expected and thus will continue
the heat advisory for now most areas. Did add Tyler county and
removed the eastern fringe.

Otherwise the ridge weakens just a bit for the weekend and thus
will increase pops just a bit but not as high as the previous
forecast.

Then late weekend into early next week still see and inverted
trof moving across the gulf will cause an uptick in clouds and
showers early next week. This may hinder eclipse viewing for our
area especially along the coastal zone.

This trof will move inland around mid week, however daily rain
chances will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  74  95  74 /  30   0  30  10
LCH  95  78  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  94  77  94  76 /  30   0  30  10
BPT  94  78  93  78 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ030-031-041>044-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     261-262.

GM...None.

&&

$$



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