Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 121121
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
621 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
VCTS AROUND ALL TERMINALS TODAY ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACH AROUND
NOON. AN INVERTED TROF OR EASTERLY WAVE WILL APPROACH. OTHERWISE VFR.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WARM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...VICINITY LONGVIEW...WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY.

FURTHER UP...A TUTT LOW WILL FORM OFFSHORE PENSACOLA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL COLD-CORE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST...
TRAVELING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY IMPULSES...EMANATING OUT OF EASTERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...WILL TRAVEL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE WARM DOME THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LIFT ATTENDING DIFFERENTIAL DAYTIME HEATING AND/OR THE SEA
BREEZE WILL PHASE IN WITH THE LIFT ATTENDING THE NORTHERLY
IMPULSES...BRINGING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LARGEST THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA (LIKELY POPS). IN GENERAL...MY FORECAST POPS
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE 00 UTC EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTION.

OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL FOR MID JULY. THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
WILL BE RUNNING BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY...AS THE
TRAVELING TUTT LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT INTO THE PICTURE.

MARINE...

THE FULL BUCK MOON WILL BRING ABOUT A 2 TO 2.5-FOOT RANGE BETWEEN
THE LOWER LOW TIDE AND THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL TIDE WILL
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIDE TABLE VALUES.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  76  92  76  92 /  40  30  50  10  30
KBPT  92  75  90  75  91 /  30  30  50  10  30
KAEX  94  75  94  75  94 /  50  20  50  10  20
KLFT  92  76  91  75  92 /  60  30  60  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








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