Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 292351
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
651 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWING SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE JUST N OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE EVENING UPDATE INCLUDES BUMPING UP POPS TO SCT FROM
7-10 PM ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA. AFTERWARDS...LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ONLY 20% EXPECTED...AND LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK...TYPICAL LATE JUNE CONDITIONS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE MID LVLS
AND HIGHER A TROUGH STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND FOR ISOLD TO SCT
EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION. TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP PUMPING IN GULF MOISTURE KEEPING
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS IN PLACE, HOWEVER BY LATE
WED AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER
THE SW STATES WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL DRIVE A DRIER
AIR MASS ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INCREASE TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

FOR THE COMING WEEKEND MODEST RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE BACK IN AS
COLUMN MOISTENS AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEEPENS AND THE MID
LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF STORMS. AT THE SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  92  74  92 /  30  40  20  30
LCH  77  90  77  91 /  20  40  10  30
LFT  76  91  76  91 /  20  30  10  40
BPT  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08


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