Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 120906
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
406 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Latest IR satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
across Southern Florida, with the exception of a few quickly
moving cirrus clouds. A relatively dry atmosphere, combined with
mostly clear conditions, will lead good radiational cooling
through early this morning. Minimum temperatures are forecast to
drop into the upper 30s around the Lake Okeechobee region, with
40s to around 50 elsewhere. Isolated frost may be possible west of
the lake, but not widespread enough to warrant an advisory. For
the remainder of today, a broad trough draped over the southeast
CONUS will maintain westerly flow in the low levels. Mostly sunny
skies and dry weather should prevail with dewpoints struggling to
reach the mid 50s. A dry frontal passage late this afternoon into
tonight should reinforce west and northwest flow.

Wednesday through Friday: Through the mid range forecast, broad
troughing will remain in place over the peninsula. This pattern is
expected to continue the north or northwest flow, along with dry
and cool conditions. Wednesday, behind the aforementioned dry
front, maximum temperatures are only forecast in the mid to upper
60s, around 10 degrees below seasonal norms, before rebounding
slightly on Thursday. Minimum temperatures both Wednesday and
Thursday are may only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s, around 10
to 15 degrees below normal.

Friday night through Saturday: Long range models have slightly
different solutions for the extended. The GFS drops a cold front
down from the northwest Friday night into Saturday, generating
enough lift and instability ahead of the front for a chance of
showers over the whole CWA. Meanwhile, the ECMWF washes the front
out over central Florida and keeps our area dry. For now, have
compromised with low end PoPs during this time frame, to account
for the rather uncertain path and intensity of this front.

&&

.MARINE...
A dry frontal passage will bring a surge of west to
northwest winds this afternoon into tonight, with small craft
advisories hoisted for the outer Gulf waters and for the waters
off Palm Beach county. Moderate rip currents are also expected
along the Gulf Coast, due to the breezy west northwest winds.
High pressure quickly rebuilds across the state on Wednesday with
diminishing winds. No significant rain chances are forecast
through most of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR under high pressure. Light and variable wind tonight will
give way to a westerly wind tomorrow between 10 and 15 kts, then
light and variable again tomorrow night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  71  48  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  72  52  67  50 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            72  53  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           71  54  65  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ650-670.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for GMZ676.

&&


DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...13







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