Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 030136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE MADE EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN LAKE REGION. THERE ARE
STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BUT RECENTLY LIGHTNING
HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...

THERE IS LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY IN
THE LAKE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT...WITH REGIONAL WINDS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER SOME OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS COULD HAVE A
SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AROUND 14Z TUESDAY WHILE THE MORE
INLAND TERMINALS LIKE KTMB AND KMIA COULD EXPERIENCE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 18Z. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EASTERN PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
ASSIGN VCTS ALTHOUGH VCSH ASSIGNED ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

.POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
.COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THERE WILL BE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 500 MB TEMPS BEING
IN THE -10C TO -11C RANGE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
WESTER COAST METRO AREAS. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES     FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA             90             91 - 1896
FLL             89             91 - 1964
PBI             89             91 - 1986

THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
BRINGING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND KEEPING THE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IN PLACE.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WITH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS REMAINING IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THIS WEEK. THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW
5 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...EXCEPT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS WHERE THE SEAS BUILD TO 6 FEET ON THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 35
PERCENT LATE THIS WEEK OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE DISPERSION INDEX WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO 75
TO 80 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  73  88 /  20  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  75  88 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            76  90  74  89 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....



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