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000
FXUS62 KMFL 301520
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1020 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO MORNING UPDATES. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP AT 85H AND ANOTHER ONE AT 60H SO THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NIL. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
CEDAR KEY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT BECOMES
DIFFUSE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WIND OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST COAST HAVE MEANDERED INLAND THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME BKN CIGS, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TODAY, WITH NO IMPACTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE
TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

.DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

.THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE THE WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE REMOVED THE POPS OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND WHILE REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  57  72  61 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  59  73  63 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  60  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  53  75  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$