Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 031945
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
345 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND
PUSHING A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY FOCUSING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE
POPS WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS TO
NUMEROUS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. MORE ON THIS IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...POPS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET COMING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS
THE 500 MB TEMPS COOL DOWN TO -7 TO -8C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FEW STORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND TO BECOME STRONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.


.LONG TERM...
THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS IS FORECAST BY THE LONG
RANGE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BREAKS DOWN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS SHOULD SWING FROM A SOUTHWEST/WEST DIRECTION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS
WEEKEND...AS THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE
OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGHS AND THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST
COAST SITES FOR FRIDAY.

CITIES    FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA            95             95 - 2010
FLL            94             97 - 1998
PBI            94             95 - 1951
MIA BEACH      93             95 - 1996

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  94  76  90 /  20  60  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  94  77  91 /  20  60  40  50
MIAMI            77  95  78  92 /  20  60  40  50
NAPLES           77  92  78  91 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.