Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 221112
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
612 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.AVIATION...
Easterly winds, around 10 KT, will persist through mid morning
for the east coast TAF sites. Aft 22/1400Z, east southeast winds
will increase to near 15 KT, gusting up to 25 KT at times. By
evening, expect these winds to weaken back down to around 10 KT.
SCT low clouds will push on shore from the Atlantic through the
period with bases between 2000-3000 FT agl. Otherwise, VFR conds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT: The weather pattern for South Florida will
continue to be driven by a strong upper level ridge. The MFL 00Z
sounding had a record high 500mb height for this date. It is this
strong ridge that continues to bring record highs across much of
the eastern US and our continued warm temperatures in South
Florida. Today the ridge continues to strengthen and will become
more east-west oriented across Florida. Breezy easterly wind flow
will continue across the area. A weak low-level moisture
disturbance will work its way around the high this morning. Most
of this activity looks to stay to our south across the Florida
keys, however some isolated showers are possible across the east
coast.

Temperatures today will remain above normal for this time of year
with low to mid 80s across the east coast. The interior and west
coast will see the warmest temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

THIS WEEKEND: The upper level ridge will move westerly across the
state into the Gulf of Mexico and begin to weaken, the low level
ridge axis will slide southward as well. This will allow the wind
to veer more southeasterly and become a little less breezy. Low
level moisture disturbances and areas of higher moisture will
bring periods of showers to the east coast regions. Temperatures
will continue to be warm in the low to mid 80s, with overnight low
temps in the 60s over the interior and Gulf and low 70s along the
east coast.

NEXT WEEK: The weakening ridge will allow a front to move into the
southeast US. Models are not in agreement on how far south this
front will make it. This could bring some increased moisture to
the region. Will continue to monitor model trends with
progression of the front.

MARINE... High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern
with breezy east to southeast winds through the weekend. A few
showers are possible over the Atlantic waters through the weekend.

BEACH FORECAST...Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk
of rip currents at Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the
week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  82  72  82  73 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  82  72  82  73 /  20  20  20  20
Miami            83  73  83  74 /  20  20  20  20
Naples           86  68  85  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...33/Kelly
MARINE...33/Kelly
AVIATION...27/JT
BEACH FORECAST...33/Kelly





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