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000
FXUS62 KMFL 192340
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT IS TOO FAST
WITH CURRENT TAF`S MAINTAINING MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.

AG

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.

BNB


AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MARINE...

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  77  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  79  69  82 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            67  79  68  82 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           64  80  65  82 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD