Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 010032 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND SHOULD BE NORTH
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR LOW END CHANCE
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS...DUE TO
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE LATE AFTERNOON RAINS.
THEREFORE...THE FOG WORDING WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND BE ADDED FOR THE
FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE FROM THE
EAST AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL REMAIN AT 6 FEET OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR PALM BEACH
GULF STREAM WATERS WHERE THEY WILL BE UP TO 8 FEET DUE TO A
NORTHEAST SWELL. THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS FOR SEAS WITH A SCEC FOR REST OF
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
MVFR AND IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, AND
POCKETS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF IFR, HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW,
EXCEPT WHERE CURRENTLY REPORTING THE LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES PER HOUR WERE
OCCURRING TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD AND NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AN EARTH
NETWORKS OBSERVATION AT HOLLYWOOD TOPPED 8.25 INCHES OF
RAIN...AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN THERE. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STREET
FLOODING WERE RECEIVED FROM MIAMI BEACH TO FORT LAUDERDALE. THE
CELL THAT WAS ACROSS PORT ST LUCIE THIS MORNING MOVED SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AND MADE IT INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD AND MERGING INTO
THE PRIMARY CELL THAT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STREET FLOODING WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST...DUE TO A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THERE. NAPLES
REACHED 84 DEGREES BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE MOVED INLAND.

THE COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY
COAST...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD...AND MAY
BE LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE CONVERGENCE DUE TO
THE COASTAL TROUGH AND OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...IN ADDITION TO THE SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM
MOTION...AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OF SOME OF THE STORMS HAS LED TO
THE EXTREME RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A COUPLE LOCALES
MAY END UP TOPPING 10 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
THE UPPER LEVEL JET...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COASTAL TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARM
IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
SOUTHWARD TO NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE STALLING. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BLOCK ANY
COOLER AIR FROM ARRIVING IN SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEAR OR OVER THE REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY AT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH LEVELS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY LEVELS SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS MAINLY THE WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  83  70  83 /  20  20  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  73  82 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            72  83  72  83 /  10  10   0  10
NAPLES           66  83  66  84 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....84/AK


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