Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 301902
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
302 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure continues to keep the weather dry today and tonight.
however, as a cold front approaches, the high is being pushed
eastward, and the pressure gradient across the region is
increasing. this has brought southeast wind to South Florida,
with speeds around 10 to 15 kts, especially along the coastal
areas. Gusts of 20 to 25 kts have also been seen.

The front is forecast to approach the area tomorrow, bringing a
chance of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. The GFS has
moistened up some, compared to previous runs. However, it still
looks as though most of any active weather will tend to be in the
lake region. The CAPEs for tomorrow are not impressive, with the
GFS boundary layer CAPE less than 500 joules. There will be some
weak 500mb vorticity advection, but it will be stronger in Central
Florida, and weaken as it progresses southeast. Still, a front
moving into the area will bring instability, so have kept a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for much of South
Florida, mainly towards the Lake and possibly along both
coastlines.

The convective activity quickly exits on Friday, with the models
indicating dry weather returning after 00z Saturday. High pressure
builds in for the weekend, with the center well to the north, over
the mid-Atlantic states. This will bring an southeast flow back
to South Florida for Sunday, which may also bring allow for some
isolated showers in the lake region on Sunday.

The high quickly moves eastward, off the east coast by Monday
afternoon, ahead of another low pressure system. This next low
looks to be more vigorous than Fridays system for South Florida.
Models have the front moving into the area Monday night or Tuesday
morning, with showers and possibly a few more thunderstorms for
South Florida. the front quickly moves through the area, and is
to the south of the CWA by Wednesday morning. While this is a cold
front, the models do not have it bringing any cooler air to South
Florida.

high pressure does not look to be able to build in behind this
front as both the GFS and the ECMWF are showing a large trough
digging into the eastern US, which will quickly bring another
frontal boundary into the area for the end of the week.



&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to weaken ahead of an approaching
cold front, that will move into the area tomorrow. This has
brought the wind increase from the southeast today. The wind will
continue to be be breezy and gusty through tomorrow. ALso, along
with the front, will be a chance of showers, and possibly a few
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon over the Atlantic waters.
Although, they cant be ruled out for the Gulf waters either.

Conditions should begin to improve Friday night for a couple of
days. then, another front is forecast to move into the region for
the beginning of next week, which could bring deteriorating marine
conditions.

Along the Atlantic coast, the wind has brought a moderate risk of
rip currents to all of the beaches along the South Florida coast
today. The wind will become more southerly tomorrow, but will
increase, which could still potentially bring a risk of rip
currents to the Atlantic beaches through Friday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure is moving to the east and the pressure gradient is
increasing across South Florida. This has caused the wind to be
southeasterly, and increase with gusts to around 25 kts in some
locations. However, conditions are forecast to continue to be VFR
through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  85  66  86 /   0  30  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  73  85  70  85 /  10  30  10  10
Miami            72  85  69  87 /  10  20   0  10
Naples           67  84  69  84 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...13







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