Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS62 KMFL 260523

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
123 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

VFR flying conditions will prevail through the TAF period ending
06z Wednesday. Outside of VCSH at KFLL and KFXE, a dry night is
expected at the TAF sites. Have placed VCSH at the east coast TAF
sites from 14z-20z, before the Atlantic sea breeze shifts any
showers/storms further inland. Started VCSH at KAPF beginning at
17z, but confidence was not high enough to include VCTS at this
time with bulk of activity expected to be north and east.

Southeast flow will be stronger than recent days, especially at
the east coast TAF sites by the late morning hours at 10-15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots possible. The southeast flow should be
strong enough to prevent a Gulf sea breeze from pushing too far
inland at KAPF.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 815 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016/

No major changes needed to be made to the previous forecast as
everything looks on track. Lingering showers across the interior
and west coast sections will quickly diminish as the evening
progresses. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop mainly during the afternoon and evening hours across the
interior and West coast areas on Tuesday. Most of the East Coast
Metro Areas will remain dry on Tuesday as a SAL layer continues to
move westward across South Florida.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 722 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016/

Mainly VFR prevails at all Atlantic terminals, and should continue
through the rest of tonight. Still, a few showers could develop in
the vicinity of the terminals, but with the air mass gradually
becoming more stable will leave VCSH out of the evening TAF
package for the Atlantic terminals. VCSH will remain for APF
through midnight, where the better pool of moisture resides. VFR
should prevail through Tuesday early afternoon when cloud cover
and thunderstorms may develop around the terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016/

Lingering convection mainly across the Interior and West coast areas
will diminish this evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
remain on the low side across the East Coast Metro Areas through the
middle of the week as a SAL layer will continue to move westward
across South Florida. The latest forecast model soundings continue
to show a capping inversion at 850 hpa with above normal 500 hpa
temperatures. These features will allow for mainly dry conditions
along eastern areas. The best chance for convection to develop will
be across the Interior and West Coast areas as the East coast Sea
Breeze pushes inland. High temperatures through the middle of the
week will also remain in the low to mid 90s as plenty of sunshine is
expected. This will also allow for heat indices to range from
100- 105 across most inland locations of South Florida.

Dry air will remain in place across the region allowing
for below normal precipitation chances on Thursday. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue to be across
the Interior and West Coast regions. As the upcoming weekend
nears, lower to mid level moisture will increase and this will
allow for a return to normal chances of showers and thunderstorms
mainly focused across Interior and West Coast areas due to the
continued Easterly flow. A tropical wave will also pass close to
the region over the weekend, which could enhance shower and
thunderstorm chances as well.

An area of high pressure will continue to keep a light
East to Southeasterly wind flow across the coastal waters through
the middle of the week. Seas will remain at 3 feet or less with
little to no swell. Winds and seas will be higher near showers and
thunderstorms. East to Southeasterly wind flow will continue into
the upcoming weekend.


West Palm Beach  93  80  92  81 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  81  90  82 /  20  30  20  10
Miami            92  80  91  81 /  20  30  20  20
Naples           93  77  93  78 /  40  30  40  20


.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


AVIATION...92/IRL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.