Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 040006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
806 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
2 AM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA
PSBL BY LATE TUE MRNG...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INLAND OF
TERMINALS. WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT...ELECTED TO NOT INTRODUCE
VCSH FOR ANY SITE EXCEPT KPBI. LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN SE 10 KTS
OR LESS TUESDAY AFTER SUNRISE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS ROTATION WITHIN STORMS INTERSECTING THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING MFL SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRYING
IN THE MID- LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. ALSO FREEZING LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
H5 TEMPERATURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL HELP FACILITATE LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BUILDING IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SAHARAN DUST LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY DEPICTS A STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE SAL INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE DRIEST AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE KEYS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THEN RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM H5
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABORAD GRADUALLY
WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

MARINE... SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  79  90 /  20  40  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  20  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  92 /  20  30  10  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPATED...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK



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