Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 261319
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
919 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
A drier air mass has moved over the area today. This mornings
sounding showing PWATs of only .81 inches. Radar is showing some
light shower activity moving onshore around the Palm
Beach/Broward County line. These are likely no more than
sprinkles, to a brief light shower, with little impact. With this
drier airmass, have trended the chance of rain down for the day
across the area. Otherwise, just adjusted other weather elements
to initialize with current conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 737 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016/

AVIATION...
High pressure over the region, along with a drier air mass, will
keep the weather quiet, with VFR conditions. There could be a few
light coastal showers, but any that do develop should not have a
significant impact at the airports. The wind will slowly be
subsiding today through this evening. In the early morning hours,
it may drop to light and variable in many locations.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016/

.Keep monitoring the tropics through Memorial Day weekend...

DISCUSSION...
The persistent surface high pressure dominating the area will keep
relatively tighter pressure gradients across the area, with generally
easterly flow in place today. Some gusty periods are possible this
afternoon. The elevated winds over the waters will also keep a
moderate risk for rip currents along the Atlantic beaches today.

Water vapor satellite imagery depicts a drier air mass filtering
into the region as subsidence develops on the west side of a mid
level disturbance located near the Bahamas. This synoptic scenario
will help in decreasing overall shower activity today with mainly
benign weather conditions prevailing across South Florida.

At this time, the long range potential impacts of the aforementioned
disturbance remain very uncertain, and the situation will
continue to be closely monitored during the next couple of days.
Model solutions suggest experiencing increasing moisture across
the state, associated with that system, starting Friday. But
again, the details about the development of this scenario remain
very uncertain.

If the disturbance over the Bahamas develops, the National Hurricane
Center indicates that there will be potential for unsettled weather
conditions across the southeastern United States during the
weekend. For South Florida, this could translate into increasing
rain and thunderstorm chances with additional tropical moisture
streaming into the area. Regardless of the outcome, this potential
system serves as a reminder that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is
nearly here, officially starting on June 1st, and now is the time
to check your emergency plans, ready kits and overall preparations
for the coming season. It`s better to prepare your family, business,
and community organizations with a plan before any potential
threats!

MARINE...
Periods of elevated winds will continue today, especially over
the offshore Atlantic marine zones, which will cause potential
hazards for small craft. Those with concerns along the Atlantic
coast should continue to monitor the forecast through the weekend
to follow the potential of tropical development east of the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  85  75  85  74 /  20  30  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  86  75  86  75 /  10  40  30  20
Miami            85  74  87  75 /  10  30  30  20
Naples           89  69  89  71 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....



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