Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 260233
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1033 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
High pressure will build over the area through mid week. A cold
front will approach from the west on Thursday and cross the area
by Friday. High pressure will build over the region Saturday with
another cold front crossing Sunday or Monday.
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 1030 PM Tuesday...Minor adjustments to the near term
forecast with the late evening update to account for hourly wx
elements of T/Td. All inland sites have decoupled, with a few
coastal sites also reporting calm conditions, due to clear skies
leading to excellent radiational cooling. PGV/Greenville
previously reported an hour or so of light fog, but has since
improved, with no fog reported from any inland METARs at this
time. Dewpoints remain a little higher than previously forecast
but should slowly fall into the mid/upper 30s overnight. Cannot
completely rule out some patchy ditch fog across Eastern NC prior
to sunrise Wednesday morning. For the Coastal Plain, expect lows
around 40 with a few low spots falling into the upper 30s. Along
the coast where there will be a bit more breeze, expect low/mid
50s for lows.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...High pressure at the surface will further
build over the area centered to the north and upper ridging will
develop. We will again be dry with mostly sunny skies. Temps will
be around the same, or perhaps just slightly warmer than Tuesday,
reaching the middle to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Surface and upper ridging will keep the
area dry and clear through Thursday. A quick warm-up is forecast
as winds shift to south on Thursday ahead of the next cold front.
Both GFS and ECMWF in good agreement on moving cold front through
eastern NC Thursday night and off the coast Friday morning. Made
only minor adjustments to PoPs, with 30% southwest to near 50% in
the far northeast. Kept only a slight chance along the Outer Banks
before 14Z Friday. Broad surface/upper ridge briefly builds across
the southeast states Saturday. By Sunday an upper trof passing
through the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic states will help flatten
the ridge and bring a cold front through the area. All available
moisture for showers will remain well to the north so maintained a
dry forecast. Yet another surface and upper ridge builds into the
region behind the front with dry conditions continuing.
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wed/...
As of 8 PM Tuesday...Predominant VFR conditions expected with SKC
through the TAF period. Cannot rule out some patchy radiational
fog late tonight, mainly at PGV/ISO/OAJ, however threat seems
small given overall dry airmass.
Long Term /Wed Night through Sat/
As of 330 PM Tuesday...VFR through the period. Only exception
will be scattered mostly light showers Thursday night as a cold
front passes through. Surface winds will be south 10-15 knots
Thursday, northwest less than 10 knots Friday and southwest 5-10
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...
As of 1035 PM Tuesday...Latest surface and buoy data indicate
N/NNE winds 5-15 kt across the waters with seas 3-4 ft. High
pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the
short term. Winds will be northerly and shift to the northeast
towards morning. On Wednesday, winds will remain northeast and
slowly diminish to around 10 KT by late in the day, and shift more
easterly late. Tonight, seas across the southern waters will
diminish to 2 to 3 feet, but will remain 3 to 4 feet for the
central and northern waters. On Wednesday, seas will diminish to 2
to 4 feet on the central and northern waters.
Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Light easterly winds Wednesday Night will
quickly become south on Thursday and increase ahead of the next
cold front. By Thursday Night winds will be 10 to 15 KT across the
southern waters and 15 to 20 KT for the central and northern
waters. Could see some gusts to 25 KT thursday night. Winds
quickly turn to NW Friday behind the front and remain in the 15 to
20 KT range with gusts to 25 KT possible across the central and
northern waters. Expect seas 2 to 4 feet with perhaps some 5 foot
seas possible Thursday Night into Friday. Winds diminish to 10 KT
or less by Friday night and will back to southwest Saturday as the
next front approaches from the west. By late Saturday into
Saturday Night, winds will pick up to 10 to 15 KT.