Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230726
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
326 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is expected through Thursday as a stationary
front lingers across the region and several low pressure areas
move along it. The front will finally move off the coast
Thursday morning. High pressure will build in from the west
Friday and Saturday. A cold front will approach from the west
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 am Tue...Stationary front will remain to the north
and west of the forecast area today. An area of low pressure
with an associated strong vort center will pass across the area
today with widespread showers. Have kept mention of thunder at
chance due to cloud cover and precip. Highs will range in the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 am Tue...Frontal boundary will temporarily dip down
into the area overnight. Widspread showers will shift south and
east but showers will continue so PoPs will drop back just a bit
to 60%. Lows generally 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 am Tue...Wet and stormy period Wednesday and Thursday
before drier weather arrives Friday into the weekend.

Pretty good model agreement that a lull in our stormy pattern may
greet us Wednesday morning as a stationary front now over north
central North Carolina slides just south of our area Wednesday
morning.  This will briefly allow some drier weather the first half
of the day, before the front just mentioned lifts back to the north
as a warm front later in the day.  At the same time we will begin to
see increasing upper level lift as a cut off low drops south through
the Tennessee Valley, and toward our area.  Widespread showers and
embedded thunder will overspread the area from southwest to
northeast Wednesday afternoon and evening.  MLCAPES of 500 to 1000
j/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 50+ knots certainly supports
the potential for any storms to become severe late Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night.  SPC has our entire area in a
marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday and Wednesday night, and
this seems very reasonable.  We are at the outer range of some of
the higher resolution models but early indications are they are
showing the potential for discrete cells that may evolve into
smaller linear lines. In addition to the severe weather threat, the
heavy rain threat is a bit higher than just 24 hours ago.  PWATS are
now near 2", with warm cloud depths closer to 12,000 feet versus
10,000 just 24 hours ago. Will continue to mention locally heavy
rain and isolated strong thunderstorms in our hazardous weather
outlook.

The main cold front and steadier rains will move off the coast just
after 12Z Thursday.  Behind it the cut off low mentioned above will
swing through during the afternoon with a few more showers or rumble
of thunder possible.  More pronounced drying is expected by Friday
as the upper low moves into the northern Atlantic and heights slowly
build.  We warm up over the weekend as 850 mb temps climb into the
upper teens.  This will support highs into the middle to upper 80s
inland, and with dewpoints well into the 60s by Sunday, the humidity
will also kick up a notch.  From Sunday and beyond a series of
disturbances will move over the top of a building 500 MB ridge.
While not a washout by any means, these disturbances with our warmer
and more humid atmosphere will support shower and thunderstorm
chances each afternoon/evening from Sunday on.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 120 am Tue...Mainly VFR at the area terminals with
occasional lower ceilings. Widespread light rain and drizzle
covers the area and will continue overnight. Rain will become
heavier during the day with embedded thunder, especially in the
afternoon. Ceilings will lower to MVFR as a result toward 12Z
and continue through the day into tonight with visibilities
lower in heavier rain. Winds will be from the south to southwest
at less than 10 knots overnight, increasing to 10-15 knots
today, then diminishing to less than 10 knots tonight.

Long Term /Wed through Sat/
As of 330 am Tue...Sub VFR weather likely in periods of heavier
rain and thunderstorms Wednesday early Thursday morning. A
return to VFR is expected Thursday night through Sunday with
dryer weather building across the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 330 am Tue...A stationary front will remain north and
west of the area today. An area of low pressure will move along
it, passing through eastern NC today and off to the northeast
tonight. As a result, the pressure gradient will tighten up over
the marine zones with increasing winds/seas. Beginning of small
craft advisories on the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters still
looks on track and made no changes.

Long Term /Wed through Sat/
As of 330 am Tue...A lull in wind and waves Wednesday will be
brief and followed by elevated seas and winds again later
Wednesday through early Friday. The worst boating conditions
will be the Wednesday evening through early Friday period
followed by tranquil waters this weekend.

Small craft advisories left as is with this update.  A cold front
will move south of the coastal waters Wednesday.  As this happens
winds will shift briefly into the northwest and become light or less
than 10 kts.  Elevated seas in the morning will drop below 5 feet
quickly during the day.  This front will return northward by
Wednesday evening as winds shift into the south and increase again.
South to southwest winds will increase to 20 to 30 kts Wednesday
evening through Thursday evening.  Seas will once again build to 5
to 10 feet during this period.  Small craft advisories are likely
this period all coastal waters with a small period of gale
conditions possible Wednesday night from Cape Hatteras to Cape
Lookout.

Behind the front winds shift into the northwest Friday at 15 to 20
kts with seas still elevated at 4 to 7 feet. Much better boating
weather this weekend with winds southwest 10 kts and seas in the 2
to 5 foot range.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     Friday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to noon EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...HSA/EH
MARINE...HSA/EH



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