Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 132220
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
620 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF WARM HUMID AIR ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AND LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
NC OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER THE ATLANTIC. ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS ENDED WITH LOSS
OF HEATING AND AM EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT GRADIENT TO KEEP A LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 70 TO 75 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST
WINDS CIRCULATE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. WITH
A DIFFLUENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD...FORCING WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO THE SEA BREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND WILL
FORECAST THE TYPICAL 30 PCT POP INLAND WITH 20 PCT ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE HOT SIDE MONDAY WITH LOWER TO PERHAPS SOME MID 90S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MON THAT
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TUES HELPING TO PUSH
LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL DRAG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUES INTO WED. THE RIDGE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL BE SHUNTED WELL OFFSHORE TUES THOUGH IT WILL
HELP FOCUS A RICH SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TUES THROUGH WED. THE COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUES AND MOVE INTO EASTERN NC WED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES MON NIGHT
THEN RAMPING BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED.
MAINTAINED TREND OF INCREASING POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES...TO
LIKELY BY TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES TUES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS INHIBITING MAXIMUM
INSOLATION...THOUGH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ROUGHLY 1425 METERS
TUES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE TUES AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OF AROUND
17 G/KG AND PWATS ABOVE 2 IN WILL BE MAXIMIZED TUE NIGHT PER 13/12Z
SO EXPECT HEAVIEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO FALL THEN WHEN LIKELY
POPS PERSIST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED BUT HAVE CONTINUED
SLOWLY DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS WE WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY BY 00Z THURS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND 1405-1410 WED WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S INLAND WITH PLENTIFUL LINGERING CLOUD COVER...TO LOW 80S
ALONG THE COAST.

STILL DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS
TO THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINNING THURS AND LASTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 13/12Z ECMWF KEEPS EASTERN NC MOSTLY DRY...ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURS INTO FRI WITH DRY
HIGH PRES RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST UNDER E TO NE SFC
WINDS...WHILE THE GFS SHIFTS THE BOUNDARY BACK INLAND WITH A SERIES
OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. TAKING A LOOK
AT THE ENSEMBLE SUITE...THERE IS LOTS OF SPREAD AMONGST THE 13/00Z
ECM ENSMOS WITH REGARDS TO POPS...AND 13/12Z NAEFS FOLLOWS SUITE.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT GFS
SCENARIO THUS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THUR
THROUGH FRI. LONG TERM MODEL SUITE INDICATES THE STALLED BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SAT...LEADING TO AT LEAST SCT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND AS A MOIST SW FLOW REGIME REDEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MOSTLY VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH 2 EXCEPTIONS: LATE TONIGHT WITH A
SMALL RISK FOR FOG/STRATUS AND MONDAY AFTERNOON IN WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A
GRADIENT TO KEEP A LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT PRECLUDING DENSE FOG
FORMATION ALTHOUGH KOAJ MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND COULD SEE FOG.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR PATCHY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT
INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE ARE WEAK AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MONDAY AFTERNOON LATENT INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED WITH HEATING
AND THIS WILL RESULT IS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EVEN A MENTION OF
VCTS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...INC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MON THROUGH WED...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CIGS TUE NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WED NIGHT THROUGH THUR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM SUNDAY...WITH A SHARPENING TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE...EXPECT INCREASING MAINLY S/SW WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT THEN WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS ON MONDAY. PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL...SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET
TOMORROW WITH THE INCREASING WINDS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUN...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A
SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH SOME POSSIBLE 6 FOOT SETS TUE
NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS
NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS THUR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND
DIRECTION LATE THUR INTO FRI...AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN
TO SOUTH WINDS AS EARLY AS THUR. HAVE TRENDED WITH A MORE EASTERLY
WIND REGIME THROUGH FRI HOWEVER...THOUGH EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...CTC/JME/TL





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