Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 070936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
536 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
...THEN MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
INLAND TROUGH SETS UP AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG ACRS INLAND AREAS SPLY COASTAL PLAINS. SFC PATN RMNS THE SAME
WITH A SFC TROF ACRS THE TN/OH VLY AND A SFC RIDGE OFFSHORE AND TO
THE S PROVIDING A MOIST S-SW LOW LVL FLOW ACRS ENC. AN UPR LVL
SHRT WV WILL CONTINUE SHEARING OUT TO N...RESULTING IN WEAK VORT
ENERGY ALONG NC COAST AND PUSHING INTO COASTAL PLAINS. CONT WITH
SLIGHT CHC POPS JUST ALONG COAST THIS MORNING...THEN CHC POPS NW
HALF OF AREA IN THE AFTN WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC SE HALF. MAX
TEMPS TODAY AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID 80S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...INLAND SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG. MAY SEE ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA DVLP ALG SRN COASTAL AREAS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
INCLUDE A LOW 20 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY. MUGGY CONDS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS FROM THE LWR 70S INLAND TO UPR 70S ALG THE
COAST WITH A LIGHT S-SW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL EXTENDED
FORECAST AS HOT TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORMAL DIURNAL REGIME
AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. GFS/ECMWF KEEP MINIMAL LIFT
AND FORECAST QPF...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
THURSDAY WITH NO POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT APPROACHES BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS INLAND FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE
POPS MOVING TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL...EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
AS THE INLAND TROUGH SETS UP AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...POPS RETURN TO SLIGHT CHANCE AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LOW/MID 90S AND MUGGY
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...FOG AND LOW STRATUS INLAND SPLY COASTAL
PLAINS...THRU ABT 13Z THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE IN THE
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXING OUT AND CU DEVELOPING BY
MID MORNING. WITH A SFC TROUGH SITUATED TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LWR VSBYS/CIGS INVOF OF CONVECTION. PRECIP QUICKLY
DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR. A BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AND MORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER
RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES ON UPDATE. LATEST BUOY OBS ARE
INDICATING WINDS S-SW 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. PERSISTENCE FCST
DURING THE PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN
CONTINUING. WINDS S-SW 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FOOTERS OFFSHORE.
A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NE/E BEHIND IT ON SATURDAY BUT
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...JAC/CTC
MARINE...JAC/CTC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.