Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 181156
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
656 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 650 AM Wednesday, light showers currently moving across
the central CWA and Outer Banks. Additional showers will likely
develop to the south during the morning hours and no changes to
current PoPs, showing high chance to likely for most of the CWA
through early afternoon. While rainfall coverage is likely to
be decent, QPF amounts will be fairly light. With a mild start
with SW winds, temperatures should reach the mid/upper 60s with
a few spots at or above 70 degrees this morning before the cold
front crosses the region around midday. Skies clear as dewpoints
fall during the afternoon and any remaining showers move off
the Outer Banks around 21z or so. Continued a small chance of
thunderstorms as some guidance continues to indicate a ribbon of
instability across the southern CWA this morning.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM Wednesday, high pressure will build east from the
western Virginias tonight with cooler air advecting into eastern
NC. Lows will range from the low to mid 40s inland with upper
40s over the Outer Banks. With diminish inland, but should stay
breezy along the coast as gradient remains tight between surface
low well offshore and building high to the northwest.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM Wednesday...
High pressure will build overhead Thursday and provide us with
plenty of sunshine. 850 temps will be cooler than today and will
support highs generally in the 50s. While cooler, it will still
be slightly above average and with the sun won`t feel all that
bad. Our next system will be an area of low pressure that will
track to our northwest through the Ohio Valley. QPF amounts vary
with the GFS being the wettest, the Euro the driest, and the
Canadian a good compromise. In coordination with surrounding
offices and using the Canadian as a good blend, increased
chances for rain to around 60% Friday with QPF amounts generally
under a tenth of an inch.
Building heights aloft will allow for another window of drier
weather late Friday into the first half of Sunday. Our next
focus will be the development of a cut off upper level low by
late Saturday over Texas. This feature will move due east and
impact our weather through early next week. At first the deep
southwest flow ahead of the cut off low will be enough to return
moisture back to our area as early as Saturday afternoon. Good
overall agreement amongst the models is good enough to increase
pops Saturday afternoon into Sunday. However specifics are
somewhat muddy so we held capped chances for rain at less than
55% Saturday night, and around 55% Sunday. By Sunday night
however great model agreement is in place as the cut off low
mentioned above moves east, and a deep, moist flow of air heads
our way. Sunday night into Monday the rain may be heavy at times
with embedded thunderstorms. As the upper low moves near or even
overhead, rain chances decrease somewhat later Monday into
Tuesday as we transition from steadier rains to more showers.
Building heights and drier weather will mean a return to
complete dry weather by Wednesday.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through 12z Thurs/...
As of 7 AM Wednesday, light showers impacting the central and
eastern CWA this morning with additional showers likely to form
further south during the morning hours. Confidence is moderate
in expecting a period of MVFR ceilings for the early to mid-
morning hours with patchy showers ahead of cold front.
Conditions will improve quickly by mid-afternoon as drier air
surges in leading to decreased cloud cover and some gusty WNW/NW
winds. Tonight should be dry with sufficient wind to preclude
Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 415 AM Wednesday, Weak high pressure builds quickly
Wednesday night and Thursday with VFR conditions expected.
Another round of showers crosses the region Friday with periods
of sub-VFR conditions again expected, before again improving
Saturday, the transitional day between systems. Sub VFR
conditions possible again Saturday night into Sunday as a new
system moves toward our area with rain expected.
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 7 AM Wednesday, gusty W/WSW winds this morning will veer
to NW by early afternoon as a cold front quickly slides
offshore. Expect 20-30 knot winds over the central waters and
15-25 knots elsewhere with seas building to 5-8 feet, especially
over the central waters. Winds subside tonight quickly as high
pressure builds east from the Virginias. Winds veer to Northerly
and subside to 10-20 knots with seas dropping below 6 feet by
midnight tonight. No changes to advisories at this time.
Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 415 AM Wednesday,
High pressure will build across the waters today and tonight.
Strong low pressure will pass across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley region Friday night through Saturday with a weaker
surface low moving east of our coastal waters. Winds will veer
to SE Friday then around to NW Saturday as the low passes, but
speeds should remain at or below 20 knots, but seas may briefly
reach 6 feet late Friday night before subsiding Saturday. Winds
veer toward southeast later Saturday into Sunday but remain
below 20 knots. Seas build during the period to 6 feet.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156-