Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 170912
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
412 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today. Low pressure will
develop along the front offshore tonight. Both systems are
forecast to produce snow across Eastern North Carolina
today into tonight. High pressure will build in from the west
Thursday through the weekend. A cold front will cross the region
Monday night followed by High pressure Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 345 AM Wed...Fog and low stratus conditions have improved
across the NOBX. Think that conditions will stay mostly fair now
for the rest of the night. Low temps are currently in the
upper 20s to low 30s across Eastern NC. Temperatures will mostly
hover around these marks the rest of the night as mid/high
clouds continue to move through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Wed...Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for
portions of Eastern NC, as a coastal low is now expected to
develop offshore and bring heavier snows to coastal areas
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 2-4 inches of snow is
expected generally east of US 17, with 1-2 inches of snow still
expected across the coastal plain associated with a cold front
which will cross the region today.

Ahead of the cold front this morning, temperatures will rise
above freezing, into the low to mid 40s in spots. Rain showers
will develop by late morning across the coastal plain, and
temperatures will begin to sharply drop. Rain will change to
light snow by afternoon across the coastal plain, and
temperatures will drop below freezing soon thereafter. This
transition to snow will move from west to east for the rest of
the afternoon, as the cold front moves to the coast. Snowfall
accumulations will be light, generally 1-2 inches west of HWY
17.

Then, as energy transfers to a developing coastal low east of
the Outer Banks, heavier snow will move over coastal sections
of Eastern NC, generally east of HWY 17. The heaviest snow will
fall along the Pamlico Sound from Carteret County to Hatteras
Island/mainland Hyde County. Strong dynamics, thanks to a
robust cutoff upper low, will allow the low to deepen quickly
Wednesday night. This will produce moderate to heavy snow over
the NC coast with a deformation band setting up somewhere.
Mesoscale dynamics/factors could produce locally heavier
snowfall of 4+ inches, and even a rumble of thunder.

Snow will end on the coastal plain in the evening, while snow
will remain falling closer to the coast, through early Thursday
morning. Low temperatures will be quite cold behind the snow,
with upper teens to low 20s expected inland, and low to mid 20s
likely along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...
Thursday through Sunday...Cold and dry
conditions will follow the offshore low pressure system
Thursday, with high temps only topping out in the upper 30s
across the area. Low temps will be very cold Thursday and Friday
mornings with teens expected inland, and 20s along the coast
Thursday morning, and low to mid 20s inland Friday morning. As
the cold upper trough moves away on Friday, high temperatures
will moderate to 50 to 55. High pressure moving off the coast,
and rising heights will allow temperatures to warm above average
over the weekend, with dry weather expected.

Monday and Monday night...A cold front will approach late
Monday bringing a threat of showers to area by evening. More
widespread showers are expected Monday night as the front
crosses the area. Mild temperatures will continue ahead of the
front with highs in the lower to middle 60s expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and slightly cooler conditions will
be forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as the models indicate
high pressure over the area. Highs are projected around 60
Tuesday and mid to upper 50s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday Night/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected through the
first half of the TAF period, with conditions dropping to MVFR
levels and eventually IFR levels Wednesday afternoon. Mid and
high level clouds will continue to move through the region
tonight and Wednesday morning. Then, as a cold front crosses the
region, rain will begin Wednesday afternoon, and quickly
transition to snow, which will bring flying conditions down to
MVFR and then IFR by the evening. IFR conditions will persist
through the first part of Wednesday night, with improving
conditions after midnight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected Thursday
through Sunday with dry high pressure forecast to be over the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...Gale Warnings have been issued for the
waters south of Oregon Inlet for strong gusty northerly winds
and dangerous seas of 10+ feet. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for the remainder of the waters. Areas of fog and stratus
that were over the northern waters and the Albemarle Sound have
dissipated and the Marine Dense Fog Advisory for these waters
has been cancelled. High pressure weakens over the waters this
morning with light and variable winds, generally less than 10
kt, and seas 3-6 ft. A cold front will move through the waters
this afternoon, with northerly winds increasing quickly along
with building seas. Northerly winds peak at 25-35 kt with seas
7-11 ft late tonight and early Thursday as low pressure develops
off of the coast.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...Rough conditions will persist Thursday
with the strongest winds and highest seas in the morning. Winds
will become NW and diminish to 10 to 20 kt Thursday afternoon
allowing seas south of Ocracoke and north of Oregon Inlet to
subside below 6 ft by early evening. Seas over the central
waters will likely take until late Thursday evening to subside.

Rough conditions will persist across the waters through
Thursday dues to gusty northerly winds and hazardous seas
through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas slowly decrease late
Thursday afternoon. Friday and Saturday W/SW flow around 15 kt
is expected with seas 3-5 ft Friday and 2 to 4 ft Saturday.
Sunday W/NW flow around 10 kt will become S by evening with
forecast seas of 2 to 3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EST Thursday
     for NCZ029-044-079-090>092-098.
     Winter Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST
     Thursday for NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ130-131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...JME
MARINE...JME


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