Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 221916
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
316 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday, then move
offshore by early Thursday. Strong high pressure will build in
from the north Friday through Sunday, while an area of low pressure
develops along the stalled frontal boundary off the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Scattered showers continue, mainly west of
Highway 17 at mid-afternoon. There has been minimal lightning
associated with these storms thus far this afternoon and
anticipate the bulk of this activity will dissipate with loss of
heating later this evening. Did maintain small PoPs along the
coast later tonight per some of the high-resolution models.
Another warm muggy night expected with southerly winds,
producing lows between 75 and 80 degrees for most locations.
Some patchy light fog may form inland toward morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...A more active day convectively expected
for Wednesday with approaching cold front acting as the focus
with moderate instability as surface-based CAPEs reach 2500 J/kg
or greater. Eastern NC remains in a Marginal Threat of severe
weather for Wednesday with some strong gusty winds being the
primary threat, along with heavy downpours as precipitable water
values hover at or just above 2 inches. Another warm muggy day
with highs upper 80s to lower 90s for Wednesday.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 pm Tue...Wednesday night into Thursday...The slow
moving front will push into the area Wednesday night and
Thursday. This front will be an anafront with the best chance
for rain along and behind it. This will be the most likely
period for rain. On Thursday cooler air aloft, clouds, and rain
chances will keep high temps in the lower 80s.

Friday into Monday....Strong high pressure will build in from
the north, with broad upper troughing across the area, while
stalled frontal boundary lingers off the SE coast. Isolated to
scattered showers Fri mainly along the coast. Drier air filters
into the area this weekend, with forecast soundings showing
PWAT values dropping below 1" inland Sat and Sun. Low level
thickness values and NE/E flow support temps several degrees
below normal, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and
overnight lows 60-70 degrees.

Models coming into slightly better agreement handling possible
tropical low development along the stalled frontal boundary off
the SE coast this weekend into early next week...though much
uncertainty remains on how this system will evolve. The GFS is
trending like the ECMWF, both keeping the system well off the
NC coast. Depending on the track and strength of the low this
weekend, could see some showers skirt the coastal areas but at
this time expect bulk of precip to remain offshore. By early
next week however, precip chances increase, as low is forecast
to track off the coast, combined with increasing moisture from
the southwest as models show the remnants of Harvey interacting
with a frontal boundary over the Gulf Coast region, and pushing
northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Wed/
As of 1235 PM Tuesday...Showers have become fairly widespread
over the southwestern CWA and may have periods of MVFR ceilings
at KOAJ, KISO and KEWN this afternoon with lesser chances at
KPGV. Anticipate most of the afternoon into tonight to be VFR.
Most guidance indicates enough of a light SW breeze later
tonight to preclude most of the fog at the TAF sites, but given
rainfall occurring today, will include a period of 5SM fog after
08z.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 3 pm Tue...Sub-VFR conditions possible Wed night into Thu
night in scattered showers and storms. Dry weather expected Fri
through Sun. NE flow will develop behind the cold front Wed
night and Thu, could keep low stratus locked in across the area
into Thursday night before we see a return pred VFR conditions
Fri into Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...As cold front approaches from the
northwest tonight and Wednesday, gradient will tighten with SW
winds increasing to 10-15 knots tonight with a few higher gusts
into Wednesday with seas building from 2 to 4 feet this
afternoon to 3-5 feet with long period swells of 9 to 11 seconds.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 3 pm Tue...A prolonged period of moderate to strong NE
winds expected behind the front Thursday night into early next
week, with rough seas developing this weekend. SCA conditions
likely to develop this weekend and continue into early next
week.

A slow moving front will push through the waters Wed night and
Thursday, with winds gradually becoming northeast behind the
front. Strong high pressure will build in from the north Thu
night and Fri. Models are not quite as strong with the wind/sea
conditions, with 10-15 kt and 2-4 ft throughout. Models coming
into slightly better agreement handling possible tropical low
development along the stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast
this weekend into early next week. The GFS is trending like the
ECMWF, both keeping the system well off the NC coast Mon and
Tue. Gusty NE winds and rough seas are expected this weekend
into early next week. Though given the uncertainty in how this
system will evolve (track and strength), will cap seas at 5-7
ft for now.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA



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