Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 271315
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
915 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An inland trough and Bermuda high pressure offshore pattern will
prevail through the week. A weak cool front will approach from
the northwest over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 915 AM Wednesday...Added small pop next couple hours for
areas near Pamlico Sound where some shra have developed. SPC meso-
analysis page shows axis of higher precip water has drifted S over
eastern NC. With heating expect good instab to develop with sct
storms this aftn especially inland and N and will make no change
to current pop for this aftn. As usual for this time of year with
good instab a brief marginal severe storm with strong winds will
be possible. No change to temps/heat advisory with heat index
values again 105 to 110 most spots this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday, expect convection to be ongoing through
the evening and into the overnight hours, especially over the
northern portions of the CWA, especially in the Albemarle/Pamlico
Sound areas east to the central and northern Outer Banks...where
the best deep omega will occur through midnight. Another very warm
and muggy night upcoming with lows upper 70s to lower 80s...except
a bit cooler where any storms occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3am Wed...Weather pattern will slowly become more unstable
across the area. Persistent mid-state trof and Bermuda high will
continue into the weekend. Frontal boundary will approach from the
N early next week. Corresponding upper pattern will become more
active with numerous disturbances moving through the flow. Hot
temps will continue into this weekend, with Heat Advisory criteria
likely each day. With more clouds and convection early next week,
apparent temp values will be lower.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short term /Through 12Z Thursday/...
As of 640 AM Wednesday, will continue to forecast primarily VFR
conditions at the TAF sites today. There will be a threat of
scattered thunderstorms during the later afternoon and evening
hours, but KPGV seems the most likely location to receive these
storms with a smaller threat near KISO. Any ceiling or visibility
reductions in these storms would be brief. Tonight should continue
VFR as guidance keeps light winds in place.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/
As of 3am Wed...Sub-VFR in scattered convection each day, as well
as in possible late night/early AM patchy fog, especially where
precip occurred. Winds will continue SW 5-15 knots by day and less
than 10 knots at night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and tonight/
As of 915AM Wednesday...Pressure gradient a bit looser today and
winds mainly below 15 kts currently. May see some increase in
speeds srn tier this aftn but looks to remain in 15 to 20 kt range
for now. Seas 1 to 3 feet N and 2 to 4 feet central and S...poss a
5 footer far outer central waters late as winds increaser a bit.

Prev Disc...Little change in the current setup across the coastal
waters and sounds. Winds are running 5-15 knots with a few gusts
to near 20 knots at Diamond Shoals with seas 1-3 feet with
occasional 4-5 footers near Diamond Shoals. Expect the diurnal
trends will continue today and tonight as winds diminish a bit
during the morning hours, increase during the afternoon and
evening, then diminish again after midnight. Seas should mostly be
2-4 feet through the period, which will be reflected in the
forecast, although at stray 5-footer will be possible in some of
the gusty late-day winds.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/
As of 3am Wed...Weather pattern of the past few day will continue
into this weekend, with surface trof over the midstate area, and
the Bermuda high offshore. SW winds 10-20 knots and 2-4 foot seas
on the coastal waters, and SW 5-15 on the adjacent sounds and
rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...RF/CTC/HSA



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