Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 260853
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
453 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...DRY COLD FRONT...BASICALLY A WIND SHIFT TO
NW...ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS MORNING. MAX INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS WILL OFFSET WEAK CAA...AND COMBINE WITH WARMER
STARTING TEMPS TO PRODUCE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY. 74-78 INLAND AND LOW 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
OVER AREA TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS WILL ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND OF COAST. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 40S INLAND TO
50S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
BIG DIFFERENCES APPEAR NEXT WEEKEND BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE
12Z ECMWF CUTS OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
WHERE THE 00Z GFS TROF IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEP SATURDAY WHICH MOVES
OUT SUNDAY. HPC APPEARS TO BE GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO AND WILL
FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY WILL MOVE EAST
TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S THROUGHOUT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN THE HIGH OFF THE COAST AND
APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT. THE
FRONT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND EAST
PORTIONS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE 60S...AND MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING. THUS
NOT FORECASTING ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY SUNDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 20 KT AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVNING WITH CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THU/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...VFR/SKC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LATE NIGHT/EARLY AM
FOG MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING UNDER AND SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGH
MOVING TO THE EAST WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. SOUTHWEST FLOW
PICKS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST
WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL AREA TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...TIGHTENING PRES GRAD AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT
PRODUCING W-SW WINDS 15-20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. FRONT
ON TRACK TO MOVE OFFSHORE 8-10 AM WITH WIND SHIFT TO NW. A FEW HOURS
OF GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS EARLY AS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS...BUT WILL HANDLE WITH MENTION IN FCST TEXT AND MWS IN
LIEU OF SHORT-LIVED SCA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN BUT
BRIEF SECONDARY SURGE INDICATED BY MODEL CONSENSUS THIS EVENING.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST..NWPS AND WW3 FOR SEAS DURING PERIOD. HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT N AND 2-4 FT S THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THU/
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TUESDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT NORTHERLY MONDAY MORNING
10-15 KNOTS NORTH TO 5-10 KNOTS SOUTH...BUT WILL BECOME 5-10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE VERY
TIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND FORECAST WIND SPEEDS NO HIGHER
THAN 10-15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE AND FORECAST WINDS
NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RUN 2-4 FEET MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT SEAS WILL PICK UP
TO 3-5 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WITH 2-4 FEET CONTINUING SOUTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA







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