Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 261501
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1001 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WILL BUILD EAST...BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS EASTERN NC.
NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR AM UPDATE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...850MB TEMPS AROUND 8C...AND SUNNY SKIES SUPPORT
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE LATE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS. LOWS WILL DROP TO
THE LOWER/MID 30S...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 40S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRI...LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED AND CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
EXISTING LONG TERM FORECAST.

MODELS AGREE TO VARYING DEGREES THAT WAA AND MSTR INFLUX WILL RETURN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS APPROACHING UPR TROF WEAKENS UPR RIDGE OVER SE
US. SHRT WV WILL BE DAMPENED OUT AS FLOW BECOMES ALMOST ZONAL
BETWEEN UPR LOW TO N AND RIDGE TO S...THUS RESULTING IN ONLY WEAK
SFC WAVES MOVING ALONG SFC FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING INTO NC LATE SUN
THROUGH MONDAY. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SW HALF OF AREA LATE
SAT NIGHT WITH INITIAL WAA...INCREASING TO HIGHER CHANCE RANGE AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT BREAKS IN
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN SHRTWV AND FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 60 FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO MAINLY ALONG COAST MON AND MON NIGHT PERHAPS
EVEN LINGERING INTO TUESDAY THERE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE.

CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST TREND WHICH MATCHES LATEST WPC GUIDANCE TO
HAVE THE FRONT PUSH OFF COAST BY EARLY TUE AND STALL FAR ENOUGH TO E
AND S THAT PCPN THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT FRI NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH OVERHEAD...TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY MIN TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND
SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT. SOME ARCTIC AIR WILL BE TAPPED AGAIN
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR WED THROUGH THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL BE CENTERED ON THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AND CALM TONIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG
AT TERMINALS EWN AND PGV THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY
WITH SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT ALL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS RAIN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM.
LATEST OBS SHOW W/N WINDS AROUND 5 KT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AVERAGING
1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS AREA MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AND FAVORED A SOLUTION
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT SATURDAY AND SW 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS MON WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO N-NE MON NIGHT
AND TUE. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THEN BUILDING
TO 3-4 FT OVER WEEKEND...PEAKING AT 4-5 FT NRN WATERS WITH
STRONGER N-NE WINDS MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.

WW3 GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME
LARGE BREAKERS ON THE OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED AND SHOULD
IT MATERIALIZE IT COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR EROSION OR OVERWASH.
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...HSA/RSB
MARINE...HSA/RSB/CQD






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