Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 221947
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
347 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY
SATURDAY...THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM TUES...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
COLLOCATED WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM
DUPLIN COUNTY NORTHEAST TO MARTIN COUNTY THEN EAST ALONG HWY 64 TO
THE NORTHERN OBX. WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH
10-15 MPH WHILE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS REMAIN E/NE 5-10 MPH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST. THESE FEATURES PLACE OUR REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW...THOUGH CONVERGENCE REMAINS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATING 2-2.25 INCHES OVER EASTERN
NC WITH A SURGE ABOVE 2.50 INCHES JUST OFF THE CAPE FEAT AND
CRYSTAL COAST WATERS...MOVING NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH...THOUGH 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES MOIST SW FLOW WILL
SHIFT ALONG THE COAST SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS NEAR THE
COAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INLAND. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUES...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED WED
WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PWATS FORECAST
ABOVE 2 INCHES. MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE WITH
LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEA-
BREEZE BOUNDARY COINCIDENT WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL RANGE 1415-1425 METERS WHICH SHOULD YIELD MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WILL HOLD NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND GIVEN
MIXED CLOUDS ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...WEAK UPR RIDGE BREAK DOWNS WED NIGHT AND THU WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WV TROF AND SFC FRONT FROM THE NW. HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED ON THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH PSBL CONVECTION MOVING IN OFF
WATER. KEPT 40-60 POPS FOR THU AFTN WITH HIGHEST POPS NW ASSOC
WITH THE SHORT WV...APPROACHING FRONT AND SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING
INLAND. GOOD CHC POPS ALL AREAS THU NIGHT AS FRONT DRIFT INTO THE
REGION AND STALLS NEAR SRN TIER LATE. ON FRI THE FRONT WILL GRAD
WASHOUT OVER SRN TIER. LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHC NW TIER WHERE A
LITTLE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...CONT HIGHER CHCS NEAR CST WHERE
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. FRI NIGHT THUR SAT NIGHT LOOKS DRIER AS UPR
TRF DRIFTS E WITH LIMITED FORCING. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30
PCT RANGE...HIGHEST CST WHERE MOISTURE CONT TO BE A BIT HIGHER.

SFC TRF WILL DEVELOP TO THE W SUN WITH TYPICAL THREAT OF WDLY SCT
TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WITH BEST CVRG INLAND. ANOTHER UPR TRF AND COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MON WITH FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA TUE. HAVE
CHC POP FOR NOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THESE MAY GET BUMPED UP IN LATER
FCST AS BECOME MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FRONT.

THU LOOKS LIKE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF FRONT WITH HIGHS 90 TO 95
INLAND. TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S FRI AND SAT AS FRONT STALL AND
DISSIPATES TO THE S. SW FLOW SUN AND MON WILL AGAIN LEAD TO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND. TEMPS MAY COOL AGAIN TUE AS FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT IF WINDS
SUFFICIENTLY DECOUPLE. SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
DAYTIME HEATING AND AREAS OF FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...REDUCED VSBYS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DURATION AND
AMOUNT OF DECOUPLING...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ROUGHLY 07-12Z.
ANY FOG OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WED NIGHT WITH SW LOW LVL FLOW
LIMITING FOG THREAT HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CIGS AT TIMES.
SHRA AND TSRA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THU AND THU NIGHT AS
SFC FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY SAGS SE THUR MOST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION THU AND THU
EVENING AND THEN MAY SEE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP LATER THU NIGHT AS
WINDS GO LIGHT IN WAKE OF FRONT. MAINLY VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND ST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 345 PM TUES...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NE/E
WINDS 5-10 KT FROM NAGS HEAD NORTH AND WEST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS
REMAIN 3-4 FT IN A WIND-WAVE DOMINATED SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHERLY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS/GULF STREAM.
WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING AROUND 2-4 FT TONIGHT INTO WED THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 5
FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER WATERS WITH A TIGHTENING SW PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS MOST WTRS WED NIGHT
THRU THU AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. LEANED TWRD LOCAL SWAN AND KEPT SEAS
CAPPED AT 5 FT THRU THU. FRONT WILL SAG SE THRU MOST OF THE REGION
LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH DIMINISHING SW WINDS THU EVENING
THAT WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E NRN TIER FRI. ACROSS SRN TIER FRONT WL
LIKELY STALL IN VCNTY WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS FRI. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI. AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND OFFSHORE HIGH BECOMES
DOMINANT EXPECT SW FLOW TO RETURN FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH SPEEDS 5 TO
15 KTS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KTS LATER SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN SHARPENING TROF INLAND AND
OFFSHORE HIGH. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT EARLY SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT
LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.