Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 300310
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING THRU SOUTHERN HALF
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET EARLIER
BUT SLIGHT WARMING AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT SHUD LIMIT
ANY REMAINING FROZEN PRECIP THREAT OVERNIGHT.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN INCREASING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT COMES THRU EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS LATER TONIGHT SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE AREA OR OFFSHORE, BUT MAY
NEED TO TWEAK POPS UP IF RADAR TRENDS SHOW MORE PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE LEVELED OFF IN THE 40S LATE THIS EVENING WITH WEAK WAA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. POST FRONTAL TEMPS WILL DROP LATE ESP
OVER INLAND AREAS WITH ONSET OF CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF COAST AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN CLEARING
AND DRYING WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING MID MORNING THROUGH AFTN.
DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION WILL OFFSET DECREASING LOW
LVL THICKNESSES...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A VERY CHANGEABLE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERALL.

FOR FRI NIGHT...CONTINUING CAA WILL BRING CHILLY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO E NC. LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20 MOST
AREAS WITH SOME UPR 20S ON THE OBX. THE BRISK NW WIND WILL MAKE IT
FEEL IN THE TEENS.

FOR SAT...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES
THOUGH COOL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH SOME UPR 30S NORTHERN OBX.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND BACK WSW BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT WILL BE TRICKY...AS INC WAA ALOFT WILL BRING AN INC AND
THICKENING OF CLOUDS. LOWS MAY BE REALIZED PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...
WITH READINGS IN THE UPR 20S LEVELING OFF OR RISING THEREAFTER.

FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THOUGH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS DUE TO INC WAA ALOFT AS SW FLOW INC. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS WITH LOW/MID 50S
SOUTH TO UPR 40S NORTHERN TIER.

MODELS CONVERGING ON TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRES AREA
SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
29/12Z ECM/GFS BRING LOW PRES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER SOMETIME LATE SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING...WHILE THE
CMC BRINGS THE LOW OVER E NC. WILL SIDE WITH THE FURTHER NORTH
SOLN AND THEREFORE KEEP AREA IN MILD SW FLOW. NO PTYPE ISSUES AREA
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS FGEN/LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY HIGH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY
PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. SHOWERS WILL END BY
MON AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE
OF COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO E NC WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL BE CHASING PRECIP
THEREFORE LITTLE CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SNOW...THOUGH CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A CHANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS FAR OUT AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TO SEE IF LOW TRACK SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.

COLD NIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK TO THE
LOW 20S INLAND TO UPR 20S BEACHES WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND
BRINGING WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS. TRANSIENT ARCTIC HIGH PRES
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS OF
1280-1290 M SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPR 30S NORTH TO LOW
40S SOUTH UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

E NC LOOKS TO REMAIN IN VCNTY OF STORM TRACK MID WEEK AS LONG
RANGE MODELS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE GOM AND REACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SOMETIME ON WED. TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE IF THE LOW WILL TRACK
INLAND OR OFF THE COAST...THOUGH IT APPEARS NOW THAT COLD AIR WILL
BE LOCKED TO THE WEST OF THE REGION PER ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FIELDS.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY CHANGE AS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE WEST AND NORTH TO WARRANT PLACING THE AREA IN A MONITORING
MODE FOR WINTER TYPE WEATHER. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POURS IN
BY LATE WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
MAINLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO THE LOWER VFR RANGES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH A
REMEWED CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES EARLY
FRIDAY WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT PRODUCING NW WINDS 25-30 KTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...THE GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR SKIES. NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. LOW PRES AND COLD
FRONT MOVE AWAY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
S/SW FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE COAST MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. INCREASING SW WINDS DEVELOPING
LATE EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND
OVERNIGHT...THEN FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NRN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS TO
NEAR 35 KT PSBL FRI AFTN...ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

BLEND OF NWPS AND PREVIOUS FCST USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
QUICKLY TO 5-7 FT SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...THEN 7-10 FT
OUTER PORTIONS ALL WATERS WITH INCREASING NW WINDS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THU...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FRI EVENING
BEHIND PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. NW WINDS WILL INC WITH GALES
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE EASTERN ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE CRITERIA BY SAT MORNING THOUGH
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALL DAY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS.
HAVE USED MAINLY THE LOCAL SWAN/NWPS OUTPUT AS THIS TENDS TO
PERFORM BEST WITH NW WINDS. SEAS WILL PEAK 12-15 FOR THE OUTER
NRN/CENTRAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. SEAS
SHOULD FINALLY DROP BELOW 6 FT LATE SAT EVENING AS HIGH PRES
PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
SW BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT. THE SW
WINDS WILL INC TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE SUN NIGHT AS A LOW PRES
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY TURN NW ON MON AND INC TO POTENTIAL GALES AS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION POURS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/BTC/TL
MARINE...JBM/BTC/TL






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