Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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892
FXUS62 KMHX 191046
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
546 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure well offshore will move away from the area while
high pressure builds into the area from the north tonight into
Tuesday. The high will then slide offshore Wednesday and
Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west Friday and
move through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 545 AM Sunday...Mainly high clouds associated with a
dampening positively tilted shortwave crossing the region this
morning will move offshore by late morning as upper ridging
builds into the area from the west late today and tonight. With
ample sunshine and westerly low level flow, another day of above
normal temperatures is expected. Highs inland will be in the
lower 70s with low to mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...High pressure will build into the area
from the north with clear skies. Although cooler air will be
briefly filtering into the area, low temperatures will continue
above normal in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sun...Spring-like pattern through the extended
with much above climo temps expected along with just slight
chances for showers mid week before a stronger front moves into
the area by next weekend.

Monday through Tuesday...Broad sfc high pres will traverse SE
Canada through this period, weakly ridging into E NC with NE
sfc flow. Despite the N to NE flow, upr and lower heights remain
quite high, esp on Monday, so temps will be once again reaching
the lower 70s for many areas with mainly sunny skies. Exception
will be NE zones where NE flow off the cool Atlantic waters
keeps temps in the 50s for much of the OBX. Upr heights and low
lvl thicknesses get knocked down a bit on Tuesday and temps
will be a bit cooler though still above climo with highs in the
60s interior to 50s on the OBX. Lows Mon night will be coolest
of the extended period with 37-40 interior to mid 40s beaches.

Wednesday through Thursday...Zonal flow aloft over area during
mid week as closed low tracks through the GOM. Kept in a very
slight pop Wed (20%) as low amplitude nrn stream short wave and
weakening cool front crosses, though with lack of moisture and
forcing most areas should be precip-free. Kept fcst dry Wed
night into Thur as broad SW flow redevelops with building
heights/thicknesses. Temps will climb back into the 70s on
Wednesday and warm further perhaps closing in on 80 some areas
by Thursday. Highs will remain in the 60s immediate coast with
the onshore flow. Lows will be quite mild in the 50s during this
time period.

Friday through Saturday...Upr trf and deep sfc low over upper
midwest Fri will drag a cold front through the area by next
weekend. Timing and amplitude differences remain with trough and
cold front, with ECMWF/CMC a bit slower than the more
progressive GFS. Will blend more heavily on the consensus slower
soln and keep Saturday warm with 70s for highs once again, along
with best chances for precip (30-40%). Have added mention of
thunder to grids Fri night/Sat as there will be instability and
shear in place due to increasing TD vals approaching 60 degrees
Fri into Sat. Lows will be quite warm as expected, and will be
near the normal highs for late Feb with readings in the mid/upr
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 545 AM Sunday...High confidence in VFR conditions through
the period. An area of high cloudiness will move through the
area this morning then skies should clear in the afternoon.
Tonight expecting clear skies as high pressure builds in from
the north but forecast low level moisture profiles look too dry
for fog. Winds will be light through tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Sun...VFR SKC Mon into Tue. Fast moving and weak
short wave will cross by Wed, and may see some spotty and light
shra but little if any impact with cont VFR. High pres once
again dominates late Wed into Fri with SW breezes and partly cdy
skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 545 AM Sunday...Winds have diminished to 5 to 15 kt while
becoming westerly early this morning. Seas have subsided to 1
to 3 ft. Winds are forecast to veer to the northwest, then north
late in the day while diminishing further to 5 to 10 kt. Seas
are forecast to remain 1 to 3 ft. Light north winds this evening
are forecast to increase to 15 to 20 kt late as high pressure
builds into the waters from the north. This will result in seas
building to 2 to 4 ft late.

Long Term /Monday through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Sun...High pres ridges into E NC with breezy NE
winds on Monday, with speeds peaking 15 to 20 kts and seas
reaching 3-5 ft. Winds diminish Mon night into Tue and remain NE
with seas subsiding back to 2 to 4 ft. High pres will slide
offshore Wed and cont thru Fri with generally 10-15 kt SW winds
mid to late week with seas continuing 2 to 4 ft. Increasing
temps and dewpoints over the cool waters may lead to sea fog
threat by late in the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL



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