Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 311106
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR RIDGE RMNS ACRS THE AREA WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING IN AT
THE SURFACE WITH A WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW LVL FLOW. CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE UPR HIGH IN PLACE BUT MAY SEE SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION DURG THE AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH THE SEABREEZE
BEING THE MAIN FOCUSING MECH. TEMPS CONT WARM NEAR 90 INLAND AND
MID 80S ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN LIGHT S/SW FLOW. ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN EARLY THEN MAY AGAIN SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS GRAZE THE COAST IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE AND SFC BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A WEAK VORT MAX ASSOC WITH A SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NC LATE MON AND
MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS SOME AS MOS GUIDANCE IN
THE 10-30% RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TUES INTO WED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY ISOL CONVECTION TUES WITH LIMITED FORCING BUT
BETTER CHANCES LATE WED THROUGH THURS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE. MODEL ALSO DEPICTING A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WED NIGHT WHICH COULD AID IN KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING WED NIGHT ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER JET REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING ALOFT AND EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION FRI INTO SAT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUES AND
WED WHEN HIGHEST THICKNESSES WILL BE PRESENT. SLIGHT COOLING
THURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREA WHERE NE/ELY FLOW EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...HOWEVER WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
WITH MULTILAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL, EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS LIFTS QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS BNDRY LAYER MIXING INCREASES WITH SURFACE HEATING. MAY
AGAIN SEE PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME RANGE SO WILL SHOW A PERIOD OF SHORT DURATION MVFR BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM ALTHOUGH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ISOL-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES MON AND LATE WED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A WEAK THERMAL
TROF DEVELOPING INLAND, S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT OVER THE
MARINE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASING TO MAINLY 10-15
KNOTS THRU TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT FEET THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL BRING S/SW
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS MON INTO WED. WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-15
KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BUT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH MON AND TUES AS THE
PIEDMONT THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 10-20 KT. A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION LATE WED
THROUGH THURS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.
WINDS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS EXPECTED TO BE E TO NE WHILE
REMAINING S/SW TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT INTO EARLY WED BUT THEN
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FT BY THURS WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK
MARINE...BTC/SK





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