Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 031057
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON...LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVING
OFF THE OUTER BANKS AT PRESENT WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXTENDING
DOWN THE COAST INTO EASTERN SC. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING AFTER SUN COMES UP AND
HEATING/MIXING INCREASE. ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISC...MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE. DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG OUTER BANKS AND SOUTH
COAST. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TODAY WITH LIKELY SOUTH
AND EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE
AREA OF LIKELY POPS DUE TO CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...UPPER 80S
NORTHWEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS IN THIS
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
FL/GA BORDER IN THE EVENING WHICH LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING ATMOSPHERE UNSETTLED. LOWS RANGE FROM LOWER/MID 70S
COASTAL PLAIN TO UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST TUE MORN AS A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO HIGHER CHC IMD COAST AND CONT TO TAPER
OFF AS HEAD WEST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO NO CHC FAR NW. LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND MDLS SHOWING THICKNESSES A BIT
LOWER STILL IN LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID/UPR 80S CST.

MAIN STORY FOR THE WED AND THU WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS WED
WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INLAND LATE THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT MODELS HAVE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT THRU SAT. WILL REMAIN MUGGY
HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S AND LOWER
90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE FLOW AND FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST AND ONLY SLIGHT POP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS TODAY...ISOLATED FOR PGV AND ISO
AND SCATTERED EWN AND OAJ. DRY CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT EWN AND OAJ. SOUTH WINDS 10-15
KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN PREDAWN HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BEST CVRG OF SHRA TUE MORN WILL BE MAINLY E OF TAFS WITH POSS SOME
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IMPACTING EWN/OAJ. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI WITH
BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM MON...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES
NEEDED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP A BIT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS...10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. 00Z WAVEWATCH HAS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT (5-7 FT) SEAS TODAY WHILE LATEST RUN OF NWPS HAS WAVES
CAPPED AT 5 FEET. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY AND USE NWPS FOR WAVE
FORECAST SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS MOSTLY 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT AT TIMES
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT WED AS FRONT/TRF
JUST W OF REGION...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT WED. AS NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES THU WILL SEE SW WINDS AGAIN INCREASE TO NEAR 20
KTS LATER THE DAY WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT OUTER WTRS
AND COULD GET TO 6 FT OFF OBX. TIMING OF FRONT WILL IMPACT WINDS
FRI...FOR NOW HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING AS FRONT GETS CLOSE WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY A0B 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF



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