Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 052114
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM THU...MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND NOT AS
COLD TONIGHT...BUT STILL SOME THREAT OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVSY IN PLACE.

WIND ADVSY FOR OUTER BANKS WITH NRLY WINDS 25-35 MPH OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF AREA BY AROUND 6 PM WITH RAIN BECOMING
WDPSRD ALL AREAS SHORTLY AFTER PASSAGE. SOME OBS OF SLEET AND SNOW
ALREADY JUST N OF AREA...AND FCST THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MIX AND CHANGE TO SLEET OVER NRN SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND PSBLY END AS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. REDUCED SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN ACCUM SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL ENOUGH OF A NUISANCE
THREAT TO CONTINUE WINTER WX ADVSY ALONG AND NE OF HWY 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THU...MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED DRIER WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHC OF LINGERING PCPN ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST S OF OREGON INLET.
WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...THIS PCPN COULD BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL MID-MORNING BUT POPS ONLY 20%. TEMPS WARM
ENOUGH FOR JUST SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN REST OF DAY.

MODELS INDICATE CLEARING FOR ALL BUT COAST DURING MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS...AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS TOWARD MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...CLEARING AND VERY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND WILL PRODUCE COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THE ECMWF AND MAV MOS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TEMPS AS COLD AS
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS INLAND BUT STILL DID NOT GO QUITE THAT
LOW...USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCING LOWS AROUND 20 INLAND TO
MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.

MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH
PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 50 INLAND TO MID TO UPPER 40S
ALONG THE COAST...THEN ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMING FOR SUNDAY.

SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MERGING EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. A SERIES OF WEAK TO
MODERATE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT
WHICH ACT TO TAP SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND LIFT IT ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES BRINGING RAIN CHANCES STARTING
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING
WITH THE DETAILS AND NOT EXPECTING A RAIN OUT EVERY DAY BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE ABUNDANT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A LOW
PRES AREA LIFTING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO
SLT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN
THIS...LLWS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...ALTHOUGH WINDS AROUND
2KFT WILL BE AROUND 40KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR/LIFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE REGION. FOG
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 21Z-06Z. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING. SLEET AND ICE ACCRETION IS MAINLY A CONCERN
AT THE KPGV SITE...BUT ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AND CLEAR
FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER CLOSE TO
THE COAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...CLEARING EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD SEE PERIOD OF RAIN BRINGING REDUCED CIGS
AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT INTO TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 PM THU...COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH SRN WATERS BY 6 PM
AND LATEST MODELS SUPPORT 25-35 KT WINDS DEVELOPING MOST OF WATERS
THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO FRI MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT
LIKELY OUTER PORTIONS CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS INTO FRI AFTN AND
EXTENDED GALE WARNING THERE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT NRN WATERS AND POSTED HIGH SURF N OF
HAT UNTIL FRI AFTN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THURSDAY...POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM 15 TO 25 KT FRIDAY EVENING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS AROUND 4-8 FT FRIDAY EVENING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...GENERALLY
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL REST OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-091>094-103.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JBM/SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK/LEP
MARINE...JBM/SK


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