Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 282245
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR UPDATE. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRES CONTS TO THE NW. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVER ALL LAND AREAS
WITH JUST SMALL CHC OVER OUTER WATERS. CU SHLD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH MCLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS LIFT NNE
OVER THE AREA. SHLD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
APPROACHING 60 COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR 60S/LOW 70S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONT TO THE N AS WEAK LOW
MOVES NE OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT. MAJORITY OF MDLS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE STAYING OVER OUTER WTRS SO DROPPED PRECIP OVER LAND. SHLD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH HIGHS MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S
CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH
AFTER THAT. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AS TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA MOVES UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
THROUGH THE WEEK AND BUMPED IT UP JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF ERIKA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR CONTS TO BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE. SCT CU SHLD DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SSW. LOW DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH LIGHT MIXING SHLD LIMIT THREAT FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...SUB-VFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRES TO NW AND WEAK LOW OFFSHORE PRODUCING
NE WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 20 KTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE
20 KTS BUT SPEEDS SHLD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS. THE PERSISTENT FETCH
WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. MDLS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
WINDS SATURDAY AND BASED ON THIS PLAN ON CAPPING SEAS AT 5 FT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSE FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRI...THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY LOOSE WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA



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