Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 201115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AS
FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TODAY. AFTER A CHILLY
START IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER INLAND AREAS,
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SSW.
1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S WITH LATE
ARRIVING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT GIVEN A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND MARGINAL FORCING BUT A FEW
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY RECEIVE A TENTH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.

CLOUDS/LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUE WILL MOVE SE...WHILE SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE NW. TUE LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WITH
SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC AND
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE
LIFTING UP THE NE COAST WED NIGHT AND THU. NO SIG CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN SC/LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TUE INTO WED...TAPERING OFF WED NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BEST FORCING
NEAR THE UPPER LOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. HIGHS THU IN THE LOW/MID 60S...AND BY
SAT/SUN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
40S/UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUE/...
PATCHY RADIATION FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
EXPECTED THEREAFTER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF, AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
ROUTES AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH CUD BRIEFLY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORY TO
MVFR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCD WITH A SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
MAINTAIN A MIXED BNDRY LAYER AND LESS CHANCES FOR AT LEAST DENSE FOG.
WILL NOT INCLUDE LATE NIGHT FOG ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUE...MOVING THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TUE AND WED WITH THE FRONT
AND THEN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOUTH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE BUT ONLY TO 10-12
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER
THE MARINE AREA. SW WINDS INCREASE 10-15 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SEAS REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 2-4
FT RANGE THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MON...TUE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
SW FLOW LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WHILE SFC AND UPPER LOW DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...PEAKING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU.
CONTINUED TO CAP SEAS AT 5FT FOR NOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE SEAS BUILD TO 6FT OFF THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY
NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED NIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD OF SCA LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH FREQ GUSTS 25-30KT LATE WED INTO THU. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU AND FRI. GUSTY
NWLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THU 10-20KT INTO EARLY
FRI...SUBSIDING TO 15KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD





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