Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 020734
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
334 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
OH/IN WITH ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
VA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA
OF PRECIP OVER S CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO-MODELS
SHOW THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE TREND OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOWS CONVECTION
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT BETTER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH STILL
TOUGH TO TIME THE CONVECTION WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHEAR BEING THE
LIMITING FACTOR. SB CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG, LI`S
-4 TO -8C AND 0-6KM SHEAR LESS THAN 25KT. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEST
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE N/W TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKS THROUGH VA. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE A LULL IN
COVERAGE...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AIDED BY APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TSTM MENTION WITH INCREASE SHEAR AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP...LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS
WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DEEP
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST LI VALUES OF -4 TO -7
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...ALONG WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR
VALUES. THE SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TUESDAY. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
POPS WILL BE LOWER...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER STILL...WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS DO
NOT TYPICALLY HANDLE THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WELL WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER ALOT OF THE REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RETURN TO NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 AM MON...CHALLENGING FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE...AS SITES ALREADY
BOUNCING BETWEEN LIFR AND VFR. WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-12Z THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF LOW CEILINGS. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z AS SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRED VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 12-13Z THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SSW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE
WEEK...EXPECT PERIODS OF SUBPAR FLYING CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LENGTHY PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY...BUT DESPITE LESS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AREAS THE RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW S/SW WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS
2-5FT. WITH FRONT NORTH/WEST OF REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXPECT SSW WINDS 10-20KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR BEACHES DURING
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE SLIDES INLAND. SEAS WILL CONT AT 3 TO 5
FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE...WHICH COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS TO
6FT NEAR 41025. GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS WITH STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. SWLY
WINDS INCREASE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6FT. INITIATED
SCA BEGINNING TONIGHT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ROUGH SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET...AS SOME 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3-5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC


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