Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 021103 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy low cloud development will continue early this morning
with MVFR bases. Carrying a scattered low cloud group at all TAF
sites per satellite trends, but expect any ceilings to be of short
duration. Some intrusion of high clouds from the north will occur,
and a VFR-based cumulus field across our central and southern
counties is anticipated this afternoon. Any showers and
thunderstorms which either develop or move into northern Big
Country late this evening and tonight should stay north of KABI.
Otherwise, expect an increase in high cloud coverage from the
north tonight, with low cloud development a good possibility
toward morning across some of our southern and southeastern
counties. South winds will continue today and tonight, with the
higher speeds and gusts expected during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The upper high, currently centered over the Great Basin and Four
Corners area, will retract a bit to the west with its influence
weakened somewhat over our area. This will allow a weak disturbance
on the eastern periphery of this high, currently approaching the
Texas Panhandle, to move southeast into our northern counties by
late this evening or early tonight. With this setup, cannot rule out
a possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms with the weak
disturbance aloft. Carrying slight chance PoPs late this evening and
tonight across the northern Big Country (north of a Sweetwater to
Albany line).

Partly cloudy skies are expected today, with increasing cloud cover
from the north and the southeast tonight. High temperatures today
are expected to be at or slightly above what occurred yesterday.
Surface pressure gradient will support south winds 10-20 mph with
higher gusts. Lows tonight are expected to be in mostly in the lower
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)

No real change to the forecast through the July 4th weekend. Upper
level high over the Great Basin and pull back slightly farther to
the west. At the surface, a weak cold front will slide into
Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, generating convection to the
north. Some of this convection, or its outflow boundaries, may
slide as far south as the I-20 corridor from Sweetwater to Abilene
for Friday. Have added PoPs back into this area, although chances
remain small. Upper level ridge will build into the area again for
the weekend and any chance for storms will diminish again.

The main difference in the 00Z set of model runs was the breakdown
of the ridge shown by the models for Monday and Tuesday. The ECMWF
is more aggressive, and given the weakness developing over the
Permian Basin and South Plains, breaks out widespread convection.
GFS is showing a weaker pattern, although its still there. Given
then uncertainty, will not jump full bore into this, but will add
a slight of storms to the extreme western portions of the area.

Upper level ridge reforms to the east over the Mississippi Valley
for the end of week, with enough ridging into Texas to again limit
the chance for storms. Will continue the dry forecast for mid to
late week for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  73  92  72  92 /   5  10  20  10  10
San Angelo  92  72  90  70  90 /   5   5  10  10   5
Junction  91  71  89  68  90 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: 07










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