Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 242055
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
255 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Relatively quiet weather conditions are anticipated across West
Central TX over the next 24 hours. Light northwest winds this
afternoon will back to the southwest after sunset. Temperatures will
cool quickly this evening and should drop into the mid 30s across
most of the area. Some low-lying, sheltered areas along the I-10
corridor and in the Hill Country may drop to near 30 degrees briefly
around sunrise.

A shortwave trough diving southeast across the northern Plains this
afternoon will drive a weak cold front across the CWA early Sunday.
Winds will veer to the north in the wake of this front and may
become gusty at times through mid afternoon. High clouds are
expected to thin out, with nearly optimal insolation helping offset
the weak cold advection. Statistical guidance numbers are all over
the board tomorrow, but we`ve leaned toward the warmer GFS based
MOS, with highs generally in the mid 60s.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
Sunday night through Saturday)

Above normal temperatures are expected for the first half of the
week across West Central Texas. Highs will generally be in lower to
mid 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s. No rain is forecast Tuesday
or Wednesday.

An upper level trough will swing across the Northern Plains late
Wednesday, sending a cold front through West Central Texas Thursday
morning. Cooler temperatures are forecast with highs ranging from
near 60 across the Big Country, to the mid 60s across the Interstate
10 corridor. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in the
placement of an upper level trough/low off the coast of Southern
California Friday, with some discrepancies as we head into the
weekend. The GFS continues to provide a wetter solution, with
intermittent disturbances from Friday through the weekend, resulting
in showers across the West Central Texas. The current forecast
reflects a middle ground between the somewhat drier ECMWF and wetter
GFS, with chance PoPs across much of the area and the best PoPs
across our western counties. A lot of uncertainty remains, and these
rain chances will likely need to be adjusted as we get closer to
this weekend. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be
below seasonal normals, in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

In addition to the possible rain chances late next week, a potent
upper level trough is forecast to trek across the Great Lakes
Region, sending a stronger cold front through West Central Texas
Sunday. This will result in a continuation of the below normal
temperatures into early next week.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  39  64  35  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  34  66  32  71  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  68  31  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Johnson/Daniels




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