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000
FXUS64 KSJT 281106
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
606 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions and light winds for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Look for another fall-like 24 hours, across West Central Texas. As
high pressure continues to dominate, highs today will range from the
lower 80s to the upper 80s. Winds will be light and variable. For
tonight, another push of cooler air will move into West Central
Texas, mainly after midnight. Thus, expect winds mainly from the
north at 10 mph or less, after midnight, with lows ranging from the
mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

A quiet and dry weather pattern will continue for our area through
the weekend.

A large upper low will meander over mostly the Ohio Valley Thursday
and Friday. The upper level ridge will remain in place from the
western half of Texas north through the Plains states Thursday,
weakening on Friday but remaining our dominant influence. Our
temperatures will be cooler on Thursday in the wake of the cold
frontal passage, as a surface ridge of high pressure noses south
across Texas. Good radiational cooling will occur Thursday night
with mostly clear skies and decreased winds. Pleasant temperatures
will continue on Friday, after a cool start to the day, with mostly
sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s. The surface ridge
axis will be slow to shift east of our area, so another cool night
is expected Friday night with overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s.

The flow aloft over our area will become quasi-zonal during the
weekend, as the ridge aloft is suppressed further. This to occur as
the aforementioned upper low lifts northeast across the eastern
Great Lakes, and an upper low and trough enter the northwestern
CONUS. A warmup is in store for our temperatures this weekend as
southerly surface winds return. Highs are expected to be mostly in
the lower 80s Saturday and lower to mid 80s Sunday, with clear to
partly cloudy skies.

Early next week, the GFS and ECMWF bring a vigorous upper trough
east across the intermountain west and Rockies, but differ on the
timing with the system and placement of a closed low. An increase
in low-level moisture is indicated for our area with increased
south winds. Temperatures are expected to be 5-10 degrees above
normal by that time. A surface trough/dryline may approach or
enter the western part of our area from West Texas, but too much
uncertainty in the details precludes a mentionable PoP at this
time.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  57  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  84  57  79  53 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  83  58  80  53 /   5   0   0   0
Brownwood  86  57  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  85  57  76  54 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       84  58  81  53 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$