Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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796
FXUS64 KSJT 251146
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
646 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southwest winds
have already developed gusts to around 20 knots, and these gusts
will continue to affect the area through the early evening hours.
Expect south/southwest winds to diminish slightly after 00Z at
most locations. Models indicate that low clouds may try to develop
close to the end of this TAF forecast cycle, but will hold off on
introducing any low clouds for now, and allow later forecasts to
assess this and insert if confidence increases in these CIGs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Much hotter today across west Texas. After tying or breaking
record low temperatures the past two days, we will see
temperatures approach record values in west central Texas.
As upper level flow increases over the Rocky Mountains, and a
shortwave ejects out over the Central Plains, a surface trough
will deepen from southeastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle.
This will result in gusty southwest winds today, lingering into
the evening hours. With southwest flow from the surface through
the upper levels, the thermal ridge will intensify over the area.
850 mb temperatures will warm 8 to 10 degrees Celsius from
Wednesday`s afternoon readings. Temperatures will soar into the
mid 90s to around 100 degrees across the region as a result, about
10 degrees above normal. Warm temperatures are expected overnight
as well with lows only dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s,
again roughly 10 degrees above normal.

Climatology:

San Angelo--Record: 107 (1989); Forecast: 100
Abilene--Record: 102 (1989); Forecast: 100

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

With 850MB thermal ridging remaining in place over the forecast
area Friday and Saturday, the forecast area will remain dry with
afternoon highs in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will return Sunday as a
cold front moves south into the area. With increased cloud cover
and rain chances, temperatures will be cooler Sunday with highs in
the lower 80s over the Big Country and in the mid to upper 80s
over the remainder of the forecast area. Rain chances will
continue every day through the coming week over most of the area.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for the final
week of May, with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the
lower 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  72 100  73 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo 100  73 101  73 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  94  72  97  74 /   0   0   0   5
Brownwood  95  71  99  73 /   0   0   0   5
Sweetwater 100  71  99  71 /   0   0   0   5
Ozona       95  70  99  72 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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