Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 251705
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1205 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017


AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all sites through tonight.
Stratus will build north over the southern terminals by 12Z
lowering ceilings to MVFR for several hours. Northwest winds 5 to
10 knots today will turn south/southeasterly by this evening.
Winds tomorrow will be southerly gusting to 20 t 25 knots at the
northern terminals by 13Z and gusting to 15 to 20 knots at the
southern terminals by 15Z.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quieter weather through the next 24 hours than the last couple
days. The upper level low that brought dry and windy conditions to
the area Friday will move into central IL by early Sunday
morning. Behind the low in our area, dry upper level ridging will
move in with another upper level trough following behind the
ridge. This will keep skies mainly sunny today with 10 to 15 mph
northwest winds at the surface. Temperatures will warm into the
mid to upper 70s. A weak surface high will move through the area
into the southern Mississippi Valley. As the next upper trough
approaches, a lee surface trough will develop off to our west and
northwest, turning northwest winds this morning to the southeast
by this evening. Southeasterly flow at the surface tonight will
help limit cooling overnight, leading to lows mainly in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)

Looks like a active weather pattern across the southern half of
the CONUS during the next week, including West Central Texas for a
few days. The medium range models indicate intense upper level
troughs/lows moving east across the Southern Plains. The strongest
one will be Tuesday and Tuesday night. There will be enough low
level moisture return(however quantity still in question) ahead of
developing dryline/Pacific cool front Tuesday. Also, upper level
southwest flow will increase and effective shear values will be
sufficient for a few severe storms. However, to far out to pin
down the details and will have to watch closely. The bottom line,
looks like a good chance for rain and that is good news.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain warm with highs in the upper
80s Sunday, then upper 70s to lower 80s for the rest of the
period, with lows in the 50s.

FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions will affect the area today due
to warm temperatures and low relative humidity values (15-20%),
but winds will only reach the 10 to 15 mph range.

Sunday, we could see critical fire weather conditions again as
west winds pick up to at least 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts, and
RH values drop into the 10-15 percent range west of a
Throckmorton, to Coleman, to Sonora line.

For the rest of the week, we will see some increase in moisture
and a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  86  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  55  89  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  54  87  53  86 /   0   5  10   0
Brownwood  51  88  52  81 /   0   5  10   0
Sweetwater  55  84  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       55  86  51  83 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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