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000
FXUS64 KSJT 091112
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

A stratus deck moving south over northern and eastern sections of
the area will keep MVFR ceilings at KABI until mid-morning. The
southward moving stratus deck may also affect KBBD within the next
few hours with MVFR ceilings settling in for several hours.
Otherwise, all terminals will remain VFR through the next 24 hours
with light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Models are all in agreement in closing an upper low just east of
the central Baja Peninsula this morning and then digging it to the
southeast through tonight. The associated upper trough axis will
stretch northeast from the upper low across northern Texas. Will
maintain cloud cover over primarily the northern half of the
forecast area through tonight but have deleted the mention of any
rainfall which should remain south of the forecast area. Highs today
will in the lower 60s over most of the area with Monday morning lows
in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Winds will be northerly today at
5 to 10 mph becoming southerly by tonight at 5 to 10 mph.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

The long term looks dry, with temperature variability typical for
this time of year. The NAM and GFS continue a closed 500 MB low on a
southeast track across Mexico into Monday and Monday night. The NAM
generates some QPF across our Interstate 10 corridor those two
periods; however, I don`t see the moisture. After the upper low
moves east early next week, the flow aloft over Texas becomes either
westerly or northwesterly, with little if any precipitation chances
for West Central Texas. Models bring another cold front south across
West Central Texas Tuesday night. Plus, models indicate winds behind
this front will be strong. Southeasterly low-level flow returns
during the day Thursday and initiates another warming trend.
Temperatures close to MOS guidance look reasonable. Prior to the
front on Tuesday, afternoon highs will push into the lower to mid
80s across West Central Texas; that`s some 10 to 15 degrees above
seasonal normals for Abilene and San Angelo. The coolest night will
likely be Wednesday night, with lows around the freezing mark. Then,
highs in the mid 70s look likely for the start of next weekend.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  41  77  48  85 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  61  39  75  47  86 /  10   5  10  10   5
Junction  59  43  69  46  82 /  10  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/Huber