Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 280118
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS STILL DOMINATED BY A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND WEST AND SEPARATES A REGION OF VERY DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...FROM A MOIST UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT COVERS THE ENTIRE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOTHER SHOWERY
PERIOD ACROSS MANY OF OUR ZONES.

AT THE SURFACE...THE GRADIENT IS QUITE WEAK OVER THE PENINSULA AND
EASTERN GULF BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. AS THIS HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD A BIT ON FRIDAY...OUR FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DEFINED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THE SATURATED
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE SUMMER IS
GENERALLY OUR FAVORED FLOW FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONG
CONVECTION.

WITH THAT IN MIND...AFTER A FAIRLY DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE LAND MASS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AS WE APPROACH DAWN. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...BUT BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING...AND FAVORED WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF THE RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE...AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES...WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN SEEN OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/00Z-29/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SHRA/TSRA...PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SE/E OVERNIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN FROM 14Z TO 18Z FRI...
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CREATE WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL INCREASES IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE WATERS BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN HAZARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  77  88 /  20  60  30  60
FMY  77  92  76  90 /  20  70  30  60
GIF  73  92  75  90 /  20  70  20  60
SRQ  77  90  76  88 /  30  60  30  60
BKV  74  91  74  87 /  20  60  20  60
SPG  78  91  79  88 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...AUSTIN


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