Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000
FXUS62 KTBW 180336 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1136 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS ALLOWED WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO
THE SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20-60NM. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
WATERS. COASTAL MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
TO REFLECT THESE HEADLINES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A RESIDUAL AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA...THOUGH CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY
DYING DOWN THIS EVENING. THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH NO DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT OR TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRADIENT. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...A BROAD MCS IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
LOW IS SET TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE PENINSULA AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...SO A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY VALID THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE POPS...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND THE ZONE
FORECAST WAS RESENT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AVIATION...
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION BY 03Z
CAUSING SOME BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THEN LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF WATERS AND TAMPA BAY. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND MUCH OF THE
MARINE AREA WILL CONTINUE CARRYING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY BY AROUND NOON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  80  66  78 /  50  70  50  40
FMY  69  87  69  82 /  40  60  50  40
GIF  67  83  65  79 /  50  70  60  50
SRQ  69  81  68  79 /  60  70  50  40
BKV  67  81  63  76 /  40  70  60  40
SPG  70  80  68  77 /  60  70  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...18/FLEMING
AVIATION...69/CLOSE







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.