Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 261853
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
253 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tuesday)...
Broad cyclonic flow extends from the Northern Plains to the
Great Lakes and into New England. South and west of this
feature, potent upper level ridging persists from the
Southern Rockies into northern Mexico, bringing an extended
bout of extreme heat to parts of the southwestern U.S. A
remnant cold front has stalled across the central Florida
peninsula in response to a number of shortwave troughs
moving through the cyclonic flow aloft. As these shortwaves
depart to the north and east, the front will remain stalled,
eventually becoming washed out over the next day or two.

Showers and storms got an early start today aided by
enhanced convergence due to the presence of the weak front
and seabreeze circulations. Greater coverage has so far been
confined to areas along and just south of the front from
Tampa Bay north and east toward Orlando. As winds continue
to veer with the seabreeze passage, expect storms to migrate
inland through this evening. Much like last night, showers
and storms may linger well into tonight over interior
portions of the peninsula, eventually winding down around
midnight.

for tomorrow expect much of the same. The weak front will
remain over the region, shifting a bit further south. This
will allow winds from Tampa Bay north to shift onshore
earlier, and may limit any rain chances to the late morning
and early afternoon hours. Convective coverage may be
enhance south of Tampa Bay in vicinity of the front and
interactions with seabreeze and frontal circulations. As
with today, storms will shift inland as westerly winds push
the west coast seabreeze inland.

Temperatures will remain near climatological normals with
highs ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to around 90
degrees elsewhere, and lows in the mid to upper 70s.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Monday)...
Weak mid/upper level ridging will remain across the area
through the period. Meanwhile at the surface a stalled out
front across north Florida at the start of the period will
dissipate with high pressure moving across the eastern U.S.
Wednesday. During Thursday through next Monday the high will
move well out into the Atlantic Ocean with the ridge axis
setting up to our north. This will lead to a typical
summertime low level east to southeast flow across the
region and when combined with the sea breezes and abundant
moisture will lead to scattered to numerous diurnal showers
and thunderstorms each day drifting west out into the gulf
at night. Temperatures will remain seasonable with daytime
highs mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight
lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18z TAFs)...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms have erupted early
today along and near a weak frontal boundary from Tampa Bay
northeast to Orlando. This activity will gradually work its
way eastward with additional storms developing along the
seabreeze along the southwest Florida coast through the
afternoon. With this evolution, most any terminal may see
visibility and ceiling limitations due to storms and will
maintain VCTS. Storms should move east of coastal terminals
by 21z to 22z but may linger over interior areas into this
evening. Visibilities less than 1/2 mile and gusty winds
will be common with any thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain fixed over the waters through
this week and into the weekend, maintaining light winds and
favorable seas. The seabreeze will turn winds onshore each
afternoon near the coast. The only marine hazard will be
widely scattered marine thunderstorms, which may locally
enhance winds and seas, and produce heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With abundant moisture in place and daily rain chances,
humidities will remain well above critical levels.
Therefore, no fire weather concerns are expected over the
next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  89  76  91 /  20  50  20  60
FMY  75  91  75  92 /  40  40  20  50
GIF  74  91  73  92 /  50  70  30  70
SRQ  77  88  75  90 /  10  40  10  50
BKV  73  90  73  91 /  20  50  20  60
SPG  78  89  77  90 /  10  30  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close



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