Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 121347
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
847 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT
DAY ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. LINGERING
AREAS OF FOG WILL ERODE AWAY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS MIXING GETS
UNDERWAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON A
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING FOG
WORDING...OTHERWISE NO OTHER GRID OR ZONE CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS REMAINS IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH CAUTIONARY HEADLINES A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LINGERING DRY AIR WILL AGAIN SUPPORT 3 TO 5 HOURS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY LOW
ERC VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
INCREASING 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL YIELD SOME
HIGH DISPERSION INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
UPPER AIR...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN


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