834
FXUS62 KTBW 081852
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
252 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

The big story for the rest of the work week will be the heat away
from the coastal areas. Ridging over the area is causing some drier
air and keeping showers away while also turning the heat up. Inland
areas of the CWA can expected highs in the mid to upper 90`s today
through Friday.

As we go through the day on Friday a weakening cold front will be
pushing through the area. The best chance to see some significant
showers and storms will be over the Nature Coast in the morning and
early afternoon hours. Once it works through the rest of Florida in
the evening and overnight hours much of the shower activity will be
gone but an isolated storm can not be ruled.

This front will only drop our high temperatures a few degrees for
the weekend but we can still expect highs in the low to mid 90`s.
The big change will be Sunday morning where most of us will wake up
comfortably in the low to mid 60`s. However, temperatures will warm
up quickly so if you sleep in you will miss it.

Our next frontal system looks to try to push through middle of next
week. However, ahead of the front we will see added moisture which
will aid in some afternoon showers and storms with the better
chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions through the period with seabreeze wind forecast for
the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Winds generally stay below 10 knots and out of the south
for the rest of the work week. A front will start to work its way
through late Friday which will bring some isolated storms and a
shift in winds to the west and then northwest for the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Our main concern over the next few days will be critical
RHs. We will have isolated spots of critical RHs throughout are work
week. However the more widespread critical RHs will be after a
frontal passage late on Friday. Saturday the lowest RHs should
remain in the interior but Sunday we should see Critical RHs through
all of our CWA. Winds will be light so no need for Red Flag and
moisture will return early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  77  88 /   0   0   0  20
FMY  74  93  75  90 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  74  95  74  93 /  10   0   0  20
SRQ  75  87  76  89 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  70  92  71  90 /   0   0   0  40
SPG  77  87  79  86 /   0   0   0  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard