Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 210806
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
406 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today - Tuesday)...
Upper low continues to spin through the Central Gulf as
upper ridging from the Western Atlantic nudges back into the
region while a small upper low moves over the SE Bahamas.
Pocket of dry mid to upper level air, now over much of the
Bahamas into the FL Straits, as seen in WV imagery, will
move over the FL Peninsula today. This will limit and
suppress convection to only 10-20 POPs most areas except in
Levy County furthest distance from dry air. Lack of
significant cloud cover will allow temps to warm above
normal values low-mid+ 90s areawide with high heat index
values as well.

Moisture returns Tuesday especially over the Southern half
of the FL Peninsula for numerous POPs from Manatee County
southward along seabreeze boundaries.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Sunday)...
Models continue to bring a wave westward into Florida Wednesday
which then gets picked up by a trough moving across the eastern U.S.
late in the week with some weak ridging returning over the weekend.
This pattern will bring an increase in deep moisture during midweek
which lingers across the region into Saturday as a cold front
settles into the southeast U.S. and stalls. On Sunday the models
have some timing differences with the ECMWF bringing a push of drier
air in from the northeast faster than the GFS which would limit rain
chances north of about the Interstate 4 corridor. Overall it looks
like rain chances will be on the high side for most of the period
ranging from 30 percent far north to 70 percent central and south
Wednesday, 60 to 70 percent everywhere for Thursday through
Saturday, and then 30 percent north to 60 percent south on Sunday as
some drier air should move in from the north as high pressure well
to the north bridges the stalled front across the southeast states.

Daytime high temperatures will remain near normal to slightly above
normal Wednesday, then near to slightly below normal for the rest of
the period thanks to more clouds and high rain chances. Overnight
lows will remain near to slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected today and tonight with limited moisture
and only isolated late afternoon thunderstorms. No aviation impacts
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Slight increase in pressure gradient and easterly surges over
the Gulf waters between weak tropical wave moving into the
Gulf of Mexico today and Bermuda high pressure ridge axis
nudging into the area. Gradient relaxes as high pressure
settles over the region mid to late week. Expect scattered
to numerous storms Tuesday into late week as well. As always
winds and seas higher near dangerous thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and fairly dry conditions today then m increasing rain
chances and humidity levels Tuesday through the rest of the
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  93  78  94  79 /  10  10  40  20
FMY  94  77  92  77 /  10  10  60  40
GIF  93  76  93  76 /  10  10  40  10
SRQ  93  77  93  78 /  10  10  60  30
BKV  93  73  94  75 /  20  10  30  10
SPG  92  80  93  79 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close



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