Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 271425
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SOON BECOME
STATIONARY BY AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE NORTH STRONG (1041MB) AN
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT (5-6MB) BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

REVIEW OF 12Z RAOB DATA SHOWS A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERRIDING THE LOW-LEVEL (SURFACE-925MB) NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION WEAK UPGLIDE IS
SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS THE DAY CONTINUES MODELS SHOW THE UPGLIDE
STRENGTHENING AND WORKING NORTHWARD SOME...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WINTER HAVEN TO SARASOTA
FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND DAMP DAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...MID 60S CENTRAL
ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT BEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS...SO A
MORNING UPDATE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GOOD OVERRUNNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW WITH EVENING
SURGES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
DRIFT SOUTH AND SET UP ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR TAMPA
BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED
IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





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