Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 171353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
953 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance crosses the area through this
morning. A cold front will drop through the region tonight
bringing in cooler air for the start of next week. A stronger
cold front will cross the area late Monday into Tuesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EDT Sunday...

A decent amount of high clouds developing off the lee of the
Appalachians this morning. Guidance shows these clouds
diminishing through the day but latest satellite imagery
suggests this may take some time. As such, have opted to tweak
temperatures downward by a degree or two this afternoon due to a
little more cloudiness. Otherwise, no other changes.


As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Early this morning, a weak sfc trough was pushing into cntrl VA
and the Carolinas. Weak shortwave energy was right in advance of
this trough. The sky cover ranged from mostly clear to mostly
cloudy across the area. Temps ranged from the upper 40s to mid
50s. This shortwave energy and associated trough could produce
isolated to sctd showers over ern/SE portions of the area
through around 800 am. Then, expect a partly sunny sky for the
remainder of the day, with WSW winds helping to produce very
mild high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Also, a strong low pressure system will track from SE Canada
toward the Canadian Maritimes today into Mon morning. This will
send a second, stronger cold front across the area later this
evening into Mon morning. Expect more clouds across the srn half
of the region this evening into Mon morning, and there may be a
little bit of light rain, as a weak shortwave also moves offshore
to our south. Will keep PoPs no higher than 20-30% in SE VA/NE
NC with a dry forecast elsewhere. QPFs are a few hundredths of
an inch at best. Lows tonight with range from the mid 30s extrm
NW, to the upper 40s extrm SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Cooler and breezy in some areas on Mon under a generally partly
sunny sky. Highs will range through the 50s. A secondary,
stronger shot of CAA arrives Mon night into Tue morning, as the
flow aloft becomes NW. Breezy (esply near the coast) Mon night
with lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Tue looks to be the
coolest day of the period with continued breezy WNW winds (gusts
up to 30 mph possible near the coast) and highs in the lower to
mid 50s. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Tue night with lows
ranging from the mid 30s extrm NW, to the lower 40s extrm SE VA
and NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Sunday...

The flow aloft flattens out a little bit for Wed through Thu.
Temps moderate into the 60s (with continued dry wx) for Wed,
but will cool back down a bit on Thu behind another dry cold
front. Still somewhat breezy out of the WNW on Wed, with
lighter northerly winds expected on Thu. Lows Wed night will
range through the 30s into the lower 40s. Highs on Thu will
range through the 50s to near 60.

Then, attention turns to our next low pressure system, which will
likely impact the area sometime between Fri aftn and Sun/Mon.
While there are still major differences in the GFS/ECMWF with
respect to timing, ensemble mean pcpn amounts are 0.50-1.50"
across the FA from Fri (3/22) through Mon (3/25). So, at this
time, will have 30-50% PoPs for Fri into Sat night, which may
still need to be adjusted, as confidence in exact timing/placement
of the low pressure system increases in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Sunday...

Isolated IFR/MVFR CIGs at SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG until 13Z this
morning until shortwave energy and isolated showers move off the
coast. Then mainly VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites
from this morning into early Mon morning. VFR after ~13Z this
morning for all areas with winds shifting to the W-WSW and
increasing to 10-15 kt (with gusts to 20 kt).

Outlook: Isolated to widely sctd showers will be possible over
SE terminals (ORF/ECG) with a second, stronger cold front
crossing the region tonight into Mon morning (which may result
in brief flight restrictions). Otherwise, mainly VFR through the
middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 700 AM EDT Sunday...

Allowing SCA to drop on time for the bay and lower James.
Remainder of forecast on track at this hour.

Previous discussion...

Latest analysis shows 1012+mb sfc low pressure offshore of the
southeast coast early this morning. A potent northern stream
~992mb low pressure system was analyzed over eastern Ontario,
with the associated strong surface cold front extending from
Lake Ontario SSW into the eastern OH and Lower TN River Valleys.
Latest obs and buoy reports showing SSW flow 10-20 kt over
local waters, highest over the bay, with pressure gradient
briefly tightening with weak low pressure sliding across the
region this morning. Expect SCA conditions currently in place
over the lower James and Ches Bay to quickly ramp down in the
wake of this system after 6-7 am, and will therefore extend SCA
through 7am for the lower James and lower Bay to match the
middle bay zones. Otherwise, no major changes in forecast
rationale for today, with winds remaining W-SW 10-15 kt,
occasionally gusting to 18-20 kt in the James River and lower
bay this afternoon. Waves 1-2 ft, Seas 3-4 ft, subsiding to 2-3
ft by this evening.

Winds veer to the N-NW, tonight into early Monday morning, as
the pressure gradient tightens once again ahead of the next
frontal passage. A brief period of SCA is possible with NW winds
over the lower bay. However, SCA headlines are more likely to
be needed Monday evening, as a strong cold front drops across
the waters. Winds quickly ramp up after 00z/8pm over northern
waters, reaching the southern waters by midnight as gusty NW
winds bring much cooler air into the region. Wind probs remain
low for prolonged gale force gusts (<10%), but quite likely to
see solid SCAs appear over the entire area during this
timeframe (winds 20-25 kt, gusts to ~30 kt, waves 1-2 ft,
building to 2-4 ft Tuesday morning, seas 2-3 ft building to 4-6
ft by Tuesday morning).

Cool high pressure builds south of the area Tue night, allowing
seas to subside and winds to slowly diminish. SCAs potentially
come down by mid to late Tuesday afternoon, with winds to back
to the W-SW winds late Tue into Wed. There is the potential for
a brief 3-5 hour period of SCA conditions Tue night in the
lower bay and lower James River in W-SW flow. Otherwise, more
benign conditions develop over the waters Tue night into Wed.
Another front drops across the area later Wed aftn, pushing
winds back to the NNW Wed night and Thu.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 525 AM EDT Sunday...

Tidal anomalies are quickly increasing over the middle and upper
bay in southerly flow. We`ve had a couple consecutive strong
flood tides in the lower and middle bay this morning, and
ETSS and Stevens Institute Flood Guidance each showing higher
than normal tides at Crisfield, Bishops Head and Cambridge, MD
on the bay side of the Maryland eastern shore with the upcoming
high tide cycle. With winds diminishing, expect impacts to be
short-lived, but we will approach minor flood thresholds at the
previously referenced sites with the upcoming tide cycle. We`ve
issued a Coastal Flood Statement for these sites. As winds
diminish and become W-SW later today and NNW tonight, expect
tidal anomalies to ease quickly with subsequent tide cycles.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG/MRD
SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AM/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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