Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 251804
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
204 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging down from the Canadian Maritimes will
slide eastward this today as low pressure centered over the
Central Plains approaches the Upper Midwest and western Great
Lakes region. This low will lift a warm front northeast across
the region on late tonight into early Tuesday, followed by a
cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds
back across the region late Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Early Afternoon Update...

The forecast remains on track for this afternoon with no changes
needed.

9:30 AM Update...

Besides a pleasantly warm early Spring day, the dry and breezy
airmass will support elevated fire weather concerns, so the main
update was to temperatures, dew points, and RH values. SE winds
increasing to 15-20 mph with some gusts to around 25 mph this
afternoon combined with good mixing and temperatures warming
into the low/mid 60s will cause dew points to mix down into the
low/mid 20s. These warmer temperatures and lower dew points,
largely the result of the aforementioned mixing, will cause RH
values to dip into the 20-25% range. Issued a Fire Weather SPS
for all of northern Ohio through 23Z to cover this threat.
Lingering snow cover that has not yet melted in parts of
Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula Counties will certainly
lower the risk there, but included all of the Ohio counties in
the SPS based on coordination with neighboring offices. RH
values will also be low in NW PA, but with more lingering snow
cover, held off on an SPS for now.

615 am update...
There were no impactful forecast adjustments needed with this
early morning update.

Previous discussion...
The pick of the week will be today with fair weather conditions
and milder temperatures. A high pressure system centered near
the Canadian Maritimes is currently in control of weather this
morning but will slowly lose influence later today as a strong
low pressure system tracks through the Midwest into the western
Great Lakes region. We are expecting to see fair skies and
sunshine but high clouds will be increasing later today.
Temperatures will be milder this afternoon ranging from the
upper 50s over NWPA to the low and mid 60s over northern Ohio.
In response the pressure gradient between the high and low
pressure systems, we will see southeasterly winds increase 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph today.

A large upper level trough over the western and central CONUS
will start moving eastward today through Tuesday. An embedded
mid-level shortwave trough will quickly track northeastward
today and tonight across the Central Plains region into the
Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region. A strong surface
low will also track a similar path as the mid level trough
shortwave. Cloudy skies will overspread the region by this
evening and overnight as low level moisture continues to advect
in from the southerly flow. Winds will increase tonight and
Tuesday 15 to 25 mph with wind gusts up to 35 mph possible.
Localized downsloping effects in Erie County PA around the city
of Erie PA may cause wind gusts up to 45 mph tonight into early
Tuesday morning.

A trailing cold front associated with the low pressure system
tracking into the western Great Lakes region will start
advancing eastward into the Ohio Valley late tonight. This
evening will be dry but rain chances will start moving in from
west to east across northern Ohio late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. That first round of rainfall will continue
to slowly move from east to west across northern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania during the day on Tuesday. There may be a
lull in the rain chances Tuesday afternoon before the actual
cold front moves in later Tuesday evening. High temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler from the previous day due to rain
and cloud cover, in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As
discussed in the near term period, Tuesday continues to look
rainy and breezy with a potential for scattered strong to severe
storms. Some of these showers and storms will likely linger
into early Tuesday night as a strong LLJ of 45-55 knots pushes
east ahead of the cold front. In addition, models continue to
place the entire area under the left exit region of an upper
level jet and vort max, aiding in support for continued showers.
The tricky part will be if any thunderstorms that develop will
continue into a less diurnally favorable environment Tuesday
night. Some models continue to suggest surface dewpoint
temperatures lingering in the upper 40s with weak instability
but high shear. Will need to continue the threat of strong to
severe storms into Tuesday night, but for now opted to keep the
mention of thunder in the forecast, especially across the
southern tier of counties. If any storms do develop, the primary
threat will be gusty winds and the potential of small hail.
Overnight lows on Tuesday night will fall into the low to mid
40s.

The aforementioned cold front will move east of the area late
Wednesday morning, allowing for all showers to dissipate from west
to east as high pressure builds in. This high pressure and
associated upper level ridge will persist over the area Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday night which will keep the area dry. Highs
on Wednesday will be a bit cooler behind the departing cold front,
only climbing into the upper 40s out west and low 50s out east. The
highs out east will likely be reached early Wednesday before the
cold front moves through. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 40s
to low 50s everywhere. Overnight lows Wednesday and Thursday night
will drop into the low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday should remain quiet across the area as high pressure remains
dominant over the area. After Friday however, models diverge quite a
bit on the progression of an upper level trough over the northeast
US and the ridge over the Great Lakes. Many long range models
continue to suggest a shortwave trough will push upper level energy
across the area as a warm front associated with a low near the
Illinois/Iowa boarder lifts north on Saturday. With disagreements in
timing of this energy and frontal progression, opted to cap PoPs at
slight chance through Sunday. High temperatures throughout the
period will be in the 50s, possibly touching 60 in some locations on
Saturday. Overnight lows are expected to be a bit warmer compared to
late, dropping only into the upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR will prevail across all TAF sites through tonight. Showers
will gradually spread across the region from west to east late
tonight and Tuesday morning, but cigs will be slow to lower, so
suspect it will take until late morning for MVFR cigs to start
developing in most areas. MVFR visibilities are likely in the
heaviest showers before then. There will be a dry slot working
across the area after mid morning, so tapered the showers down
to VCSH from west to east by late morning/early afternoon. The
steadier showers will of course hold longer in NE Ohio and NW
PA.

The main concern is winds. S to SE winds will increase to 15-20
knots tonight with gusts over 30 knots at times late tonight and
Tuesday morning. The strongest gusts will occur around KFDY,
KMFD, and KERI where downsloping will aid in 35-40 knot gusts,
especially KERI where gusts over 40 knots are expected.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Tuesday afternoon
through early Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure departs to the east, a sustained southeasterly flow
has developed with winds generally 10-15 knots, locally higher
across the western basin. These winds will persist through much of
today until a low pressure system approaches the western Great Lakes
region tonight. As the low get closer to Lake Erie, an enhanced
pressure gradient will result in winds from the southeast quickly
increasing to 15-20 knots. With offshore flow expected, the largest
waves will remain along the northern lakeshore, but due to wind
speed this will need to be monitored for the potential of Small
Craft Advisories tonight into Tuesday night. On Tuesday night, a
cold front will begin to move across the area, allowing winds to
gradually shift to southwesterly Wednesday morning and weakening to
10-15 knots. High pressure will again become established by
Wednesday evening, allowing for winds to continue to weaken to 5-10
knots and shift again to be out of the northwest by Thursday
morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Campbell


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