Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 030830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

TODAY...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ONE UPPER WAVE HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE REGION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. SFC LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AS
OF 0830Z WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...AS WILL THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS WITHIN THE CAA (WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS)...BUT LIKELY SPRINKLES AT BEST. THE RAP/HRRR ARE
SLOWER THAN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH MOVING
THE SFC LOW/COLD FRONT EASTWARD. THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT THESE HI-RES MODELS MAY NOT BE HANDLING THIS
FEATURE CORRECTLY DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. A SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD PLACE WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN
THE WARM SECTOR LONGER...BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING (AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 80F). THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE
CLEAR BY THE 7AM UPDATE...AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
NOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK...SO SEVERE STORMS NOT
EXPECTED. IN THE COLD SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
60F...AND MAY NEED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS IN SOME PLACES ONCE THE
EXACT SPEED TO THE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRY/COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE. JUNE SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH 70F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD. HOWEVER...PERIODIC MODEL
RUNS DO INDICATE A WAVE ATTEMPTING TO ROUND THE RIDGE AND PRODUCE
PRECIP. STUCK WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST CONSIDERING THE DRIER
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS. ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE LOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A REBOUNDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND GFK-TVF-BJI AREAS OVERNIGHT.
AREA OF LOWER CIGS (SOME IFR/MVFR) IN NE ND WILL SPREAD SOUTH
BEHIND SFC LOW AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOW LONG THE MVFR CIGS LAST INTO WEDNESDAY IS
IS QUESTIONABLE...AS UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF MVFR AND VFR
CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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