Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 132005
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
305 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

As the upper trough deepens over the west coast our region comes
under increasing mid level sw flow through the short term. Current
rain area over ne Mt associated with entrance region of upper jet
and should propagate ne tonight and may clip our far north.
Otherwise any other forcing looks very weak. As a result have
trimmed back on pops farther south overnight. A fairly respectable
surface moisture gradient continues along slow moving boundary
with dewpoints ranging from the upper 40s over the far nw to the
mid 60s over the south. Temperatures should follow with minimums
from the around 50 over the far nw to the lower 60s over the
south.

Boundary gradually sags southward being oriented from the Mn arrow
head to far ne SD tomorrow. Unsure to what degree any weak forcing
will interact with boundary for showers and possible T. Favored
convective parameters limited to along and south of boundary
covering roughly the se third of the FA. Models not very
impressive with qpf so did back off a tad on pops for tomorrow.
With more cloud cover and boundary sagging south temperatures will
be cooler over all but the far s-se where low 80s possible.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Models are in general agreement for this forecast period. By
Thursday night, the weather pattern changes and becomes more
unsettled as southwest flow aloft dominates, and an upper level trof
digs in the intermountain west. Surface features indicate a relative
open Gulf so expect some decent moisture transport ahead of the slow
progressing surface system. As the surface system progresses slowly
across the northern Plains, more beneficial rain amounts are
anticipated, mainly in the one to two inch range. Otherwise, expect
much cooler and cloudy conditions to be in place through Monday,
with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70. By the end of the period, a
slow warming trend will take place, with scattered showers expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. At this time
smoke layer aloft not impacting vsby and with smoke not to
increase significantly did not lower vsby. Some showers possible
tonight however at this time coverage looks spotty and not enough
confidence to include -ra at any TAF sites.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Voelker



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