Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191914
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
114 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 114 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Stratus remaining near the Lake of the Woods and Red Lakes area
looks to exit to the east by around 3 PM ending any remaining flurry
chances today in that area. As clouds have cleared, temperatures
have increased higher than expected, especially near the Devils
Lake area as well as within west-central Minnesota. Have adjusted
high temperatures to reflect higher temperature trend. Cirrus
moving into the western CWA continues and should overtake the
region into evening. This may aid in keeping overnight lows warmer
than expected. Model guidance besides the HRRR is not handling
this cirrus well so will hold off editing lows until next update.
Winds are generally light, under 10 mph, and should remain so
overnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Weak 500 mb short wave will move toward Lake of the Woods area
this morning. Radar returns in Manitoba indicate a bit of light
snow with it heading toward LOW region. But cloud bases and
strength of returns argue that some drying below cloud bases are
occurring and thus think more flurries the result. Coord with DLH
to go flurries. Otherwise high clouds in mid level warm adv zone
moving over E ND attm and will move east this aftn. Warmer air
will move into central into SE ND this aftn but light east wind
will keep NE ND into NW MN on the cold side.

Warm advection in the low levels will kick in later tonight as
winds turn southerly. Thus most low temps will be prior to
midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

A system supported by an upper level trough will bring the chance
for some precipitation on Monday afternoon through Monday night. It
currently looks like this will mainly impact the northern Red River
Valley into northern Minnesota. With the warmer temperatures on
Monday precipitation would likely start as rain before transitioning
to snow.

A clipper on Wednesday will be the next chance for precipitation as
it moves across North Dakota. Both the GFS and ECMWF seem to be in
agreement about the location of this clipper system. As with the
earlier model runs there is a weakening trend to the precipitation
amounts as the system moves east. There is some warmer air aloft
present in the GFS which could lead to sleet Wednesday night in
eastern North Dakota. As this system looks to weaken as it moves
over our area kept precipitation chance higher to the east near
Devils Lake and Valley City  and lower close to and in Minnesota.

Still looking quiet for Thanksgiving at this point with high
pressure dominant, but the ECMWF does now have some chances for
precipitation. Kept the forecast dry but will need to keep an eye on
future model runs to see if the ECMWF maintains this or the other
models pick up on it.

Moving forward there is still a lot of uncertainty with the
evolution of this next system. The ECMWF has the surface low much
farther south and takes it into northern Minnesota while other model
guidance keeps the surface low farther north in Canada. The track of
this low will have a major impact in what happens in North Dakota
and Minnesota so future models runs will need to be analyzed to see
how this plays out. High pressure will move in after this system and
provide dry weather into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 648 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Mid and high level moisture to start today, but do look for
clearing of these clouds in many areas during the afternoon and
evening. VFR thru the pd. Winds lighter today 5 to 10 kts most of
the time from the south-southwest.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...Riddle



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