Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 260554
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1254 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

LITTLE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  COLD CORE UPPER LOW
GENERATING LARGE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY WEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.  SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER IOWA IS
EXPECTED TO TO GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  READINGS
SHOULD DROP OFF INTO THE COOL UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR LOWS AND
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO SOME MID 70S.  THIS COMBINED
WITH THE DRY DEWPOINTS IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE A NICE PREFALL
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO SHOW THE WHITES OF ITS EYES LOCALLY...BUT IT WILL STILL HAVE TO
BATTLE THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
MN/WI AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO SOUTHERN MN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND MAINTAIN
20-30 PERCENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY
/MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR/. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE 25.12Z GFS AND NAM
RAPIDLY EJECT THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WITH A SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 25.12Z ECMWF AND GEM
PROG THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO BE A BIT STRONGER...AND
THEREFORE DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT PRECIP
UNTIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A
CONSENSUS BLEND THAT IS WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS CONFINES THE HIGHEST POPS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR NEXT SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED 20-30
POPS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SLIGHT MODERATION WILL OCCUR FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH READINGS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE BECOMING MORE
COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING KAXN. WINDS
SHOULD HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT ON TUESDAY BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
10KTS. LOOKING AHEAD...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST.

KMSP...
VFR. NO CHANGES FROM GENERAL DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS E AT 5KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E AT 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS VRB AT 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB






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