Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 151838
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
238 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of a passing cold front, weak high pressure builds
in tonight and Saturday. The next cold front crosses our area
Sunday. A reinforcing shot of colder air will arrive for Monday
and Tuesday along with brisk winds, followed by weak high
pressure building in for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
While another mild to warm afternoon is in progress, the first
in a series of cold fronts clears our area this evening which
will start our stepping down of our stretch of warmth.

Despite a more zonal flow aloft, strong shortwave energy is
supporting surface low pressure moving across southeastern New
England through early this evening. An associated cold front will
continue to works its way southeastward across our area. Some
additional shortwave energy later this afternoon and early this
evening may promote a bit more shower activity mainly across far
southern New Jersey and Delmarva. The coverage overall is looking
less and therefore PoPs were lowered some more. The instability is
rather limited and therefore continued to not include a thunder
mention. Once any showers end this evening, at least some clearing
should work in from the northwest although the cold air advection
may maintain an area of stratocumulus for at least portions of the
region. Some cloud cover may also be enhanced some overnight as
stronger, but channelized vorticity, slides across the region. The
cold air advection and decent mixing should carry some wind for a
while this evening, although a diminishing trend is expected as the
overall mixing does shrink. It will turn noticeably colder tonight
as temperatures drop into the 30s to low 40s by daybreak Saturday.

As we go through Saturday, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to
quickly slide across our area in the morning with more of a zonal
flow aloft continuing. This will result in a cooler air mass,
however given the zonal flow the temperatures will still be several
degrees above average. High temperatures are forecast to get well
into the 50s to low 60s during the afternoon (coolest in the
Poconos). Any lingering cloud cover should be the high level
variety, however overall a good amount of sunshine should occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure moves offshore on Saturday Night with a cold
front approaching as an area of low pressure skates by to the
north. This front will not have much moisture to work with, and
only have a 15-35% chance of showers from around I-95
northwestward late Saturday night or Sunday morning, with the
highest chances north of I-78. Temperatures will be similar to
Saturday, but in the wake of the front a gusty westerly breeze
will pick up on Sunday. Enough drying should come in to provide
at least partial sunshine, though, and the day will turn out
mainly dry. Temperatures will dip well into the 30s on Sunday
night as colder air continues to push in.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall quiet weather for most of next week, although start off
much chillier, with the coldest temperatures in our region since
the end of February or 1st of March.

In the wake of a mainly dry secondary cold front swinging by on
Sunday night, colder and drier air will filter in on brisk
westerly winds on Monday, as a rather deep upper-level trough
settles across the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. Highs will
struggle to reach 50 degrees even southeast of I-95, with wind
gusts up to the 25 to 30 mph range or so, especially during the
afternoon. As the trough axis passes by, enough moisture and
instability may be present around the Poconos and perhaps far
northern NJ to generate a few snow showers Monday afternoon.

An even colder and drier airmass will flow into our region on
Tuesday in the wake of the upper-trough passage. Winds may stay
elevated enough to limit radiational cooling for low temps
early Tuesday morning, but still will get down to the upper 20s
or low 30s for most of our area. With 850 mb temps around -10C,
despite fairly good mixing, highs will only get into the mid 40s
for most areas, with the Poconos only expected to reach the mid
30s. That will be accompanied by brisk winds similar to Monday,
making for a rude awakening that it is still March, after our
nice warm weather the previous week. Tuesday should be dry aside
from perhaps a few flurries around the Poconos, though there
may be a little more in the way of clouds with stratocumulus
drifting in off the Appalachians at times as another trailing
mid/upper- level shortwave passes by.

Weak surface high pressure will return for Wednesday and
Thursday, with continued dry weather and mostly sunny skies.
Wednesday will still be brisk and chilly, but as winds both at
the surface and aloft become more southerly on Thursday, highs
will moderate into the 50s. Models are not in great agreement on
specifics beyond that, but most suggest that a more substantial
rainfall could be in store for Friday or Saturday as low
pressure tracks from southwest to northeast across our region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Rest of this afternoon...VFR overall with a few showers around. If
any restrictions were to occur they will be brief and limited.
Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Moderate
confidence.

Tonight...VFR with some clearing of the clouds from the northwest.
Some showers possible this evening mainly south and east of ILG.
North-northwest winds diminishing to 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...VFR. West-northwest winds near 10 knots, becoming
southwest in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...VFR. South/southwesterly winds 5-10 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Sunday through Sunday Night...Primarily VFR. A few showers may
pass by early Sunday morning, mainly from around I-78 northward,
but should not restrict visibility. West/northwest winds around
10-15 kt, gusting 20-25 during the day decreasing to 5-10 kt at
night. Moderate confidence.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10-15 kt
with gusts 20-30 kt. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
The conditions are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria (25 knots/5 feet) through Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated, but southerly
winds will increase from the south with gusts near 20-25 kt late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with seas building to
3 to 4 ft over the open ocean.

Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated. West/southwest winds 10-15
kt gusting up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Sunday Night...No marine headlines anticipated.  North/northwest
winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Monday through Wednesday...SCA conditions highly likely (80%)
as west/northwest winds will increase to around 20 kt, with
gusts 25-30 kt possible. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Gorse
SHORT TERM...Dodd/Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Dodd
AVIATION...Dodd/Gorse
MARINE...Dodd/Gorse


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