145
FXUS61 KPHI 080649
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
249 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will remain in place offshore through the
week. A slow moving cold front will push southward into the area by
later Tuesday into Tuesday night and then waffle across the mid
Atlantic through the mid to late week as additional disturbances
aloft move through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Convection from earlier this past evening has fizzled with
tranquil conditions across the area early this morning. It
remains warm and very muggy though with both temperatures and
dew points in the 70s.

The overall unsettled, active, and tropical weather pattern
will continue Tuesday due to a slow-moving cold front which will
work its way toward the area but won`t actually cross through
the area until mid-late week. This boundary will act as the
trigger for convection in both the severe and hydro departments
on Tuesday. PWATs will remain in the range of 1.8-2.3 inches;
tall, skinny CAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg; and relatively
low unidirectional effective shear up to 20 kt supports the
potential for training convection where any residual boundaries
are in place. There won`t be much dry air to speak of in the
DCAPE department, however steep low-level lapse rates combined
with water loaded downdrafts will yield a damaging wind threat
with any stronger or more organized updrafts. As a result, the
Storm Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center continue
to highlight the threats for both severe weather and flash
flooding with most of our area highlighted in SLIGHT risks for
both. As a result, a new Flood Watch for flash flooding has been
issued that includes all of our forecast area except for Carbon
and Monroe Counties. This is in effect from 2 PM Tuesday to
midnight. In terms of the timing of convection, it should stay
dry through the morning with convection firing near the cold
front over our NW zones by the early to mid afternoon period. It
should then push south/east through the urban corridor around
the late afternoon into the early evening before moving offshore
by late evening.

As for temperatures, Tuesday will feature mostly sunny skies in the
morning with increasing clouds ahead of the thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Forecast highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to mid
90s across most of the area with tropical dew points remaining in
the low to mid 70s. As a result, heat indicies are expected to range
between 100-105 degrees across much of the area. For this reason,
kept current heat headlines in place except added Morris County in
New Jersey. The Advisory runs from 10 AM to 8 PM Tuesday.

Convection should be mostly winding down by the overnight period
Tuesday night as the cold front pushes southward before tending to
stall over southern NJ into Delmarva. The front will also be quite
weak and diffuse as far as there really being a temperature and dew
point gradient across it. As a result, it will be another mild and
muggy night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The remnants of Chantal will be long gone, but the environment will
not change much with plenty of humidity lingering across the Middle
Atlantic region. This humidity will be acted upon by daytime heating
and several shortwaves both Wed/Thu. In addition, a weak front
lingering across the area will focus showers/tstms thru the period.
We`ll have at least likely pops for all areas Thursday but just
for Delmarva Wednesday. Chance pops will round out the other
periods. Rainfall will be heavy at times with instances of flash
flooding possible both days. While widespread severe weather is
not likely, there could be strong gusty winds associated with
downpours at times.

Temperatures will be summer-like Wed with highs above normal.
readings will top out in the upper 80s/low 90s most areas. Apparent
temps will be some 5 to 7 degrees higher with all the humidity
about. The highs for Thu will be closer to normal with upper 70s/low
80s for the N and w areas and mid to upper 80s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period from this Friday through next Monday continues to look
overall rather unsettled with summer-like precipitation, seasonable
temperatures, and continuing high humidity.

Precipitation will be showery with scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms around most days. Models are not showing strongly
synoptic cues to organize precip, mostly just subtle disturbances in
the flow which are notorious for difficult timing/placement. We
stayed close to the NBM with the forecast with POPs generally in the
30 to 50 percent range each day. Though, as alluded to above, it
won`t be raining all the time as precip will be focused mainly
around peak heating times.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of overnight...VFR. Winds generally southwest winds around
3-5 kt, becoming VRB/calm at times. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR expected for much of the day with a period sub-
VFR conditions likely late in the afternoon as scattered
thunderstorms move into the region after 18Z. Southwest winds
around 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt possible. Moderate
confidence.

Tuesday night...Showers/storms may continue to bring sub VFR
conditions at times into the early evening, mainly for the I-95
TAF sites and points south. Showers/storms should be mainly over
by around 6z but then there may be sub VFR due to low stratus.
Moderate confidence.


Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...VFR should generally prevail
during the daytime periods with daily chances for thunderstorms,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Areas of fog and
low clouds with restrictions possible at night.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory for seas from Manasquan Inlet to Cape
May is in effect until 6 AM. Otherwise Tuesday and Tuesday night
should feature mainly sub Small Craft Advisory level conditions.
However showers/storms moving over the waters Tuesday evening
could bring locally strong wind gusts over 34 knots along with
locally higher seas.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Winds and seas are forecast to
remain below advisory criteria. Daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Some areas of fog possible at times.

Rip Currents...

For Tuesday, winds shift southwesterly becoming more alongshore
flow around 5-10 mph in the morning increasing to 10-15mph in
the afternoon. Breaking wave heights should be in the 2-4 foot
range depending on beach orientation with a primary SE swell
increasing to 4 feet at a 6-8 second period. Given the tides
will be around low tide in the morning with the increase in
swell, will maintain a HIGH risk for rip currents for the
easterly facing beaches and MODERATE elsewhere.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers
and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low
tides.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A new Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued for Tuesday
and it runs from 2 PM to midnight. This is a result of
widespread showers/storms expected to develop capable of
producing rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour. If storms train
over any one area for a period of time, this could result in
localized rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches. Main stem river
flooding is not anticipated but flash flooding of smaller
streams/creeks and areas of poor drainage will be possible.
Please heed any road closures and law enforcement instructions
in case of flooding.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for PAZ070-071-101>106.
     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NJZ008>010-012>023-027.
     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ024>026.
DE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for DEZ001>003.
     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for DEZ001>004.
MD...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ012-015-019-020.
     Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
     for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ451>453.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/OHara
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/OHara
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MJL/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/OHara
HYDROLOGY...