Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 140030
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
830 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our south will drift off the Southeast coast
through Thursday. Low pressure will pass north of our area Thursday
night and Friday. A pair of cold fronts will pass through Sunday
and Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overall quiet forecast remains on track this evening. The Ci
clouds that were around earlier have moved offshore. More may
arrive towards dawn. Temperatures tracking close to the previous
fcst. A slight tick down in lows for the update. Lows will range
from the low 40s N/W to the upper 40s for Delmarva and metro
Philadelphia. Winds will be light and variable. A bit of patchy
fog might develop locally around northern portions of the NJ
shore, but given how dry the airmass is to start tonight, we do
not expect widespread fog.

Surface high pressure will continue drifting off the southeast
coast through Thursday, with a sunny, dry day, along with light
west/southwest flow continuing both at the surface and aloft.
This will result in additional warm air advection, and while
winds will remain light mainly less than 10 mph on Thursday,
enough mixing and compressional warming under the building ridge
aloft will result in even warmer temperatures Thursday. Expect
it will be the warmest day of the week, with highs easily into
the low to mid 70s. The Poconos and the shore will once again be
cooler, with another light seabreeze developing in the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak disturbance will pass by the region Thursday night, bringing
a chance for showers mainly across the northern half of the CWA.
Accumulation looks to be light though, with less than a tenth of an
inch expected.

Warm conditions will continue through Friday with forecast highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s once again, but chances for rainfall will
arrive for the latter half of the day as a cold front sweeps through
the region. Guidance has maintained widespread accumulations of
between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, but some locally heavier
amounts will be possible wherever a heavier shower sets up. Cannot
rule out a few rumbles of thunder either with limited instability
and modest lapse rates, particularly across the southern half of the
region.

Behind the front, temperatures fall into the 40s Friday night as
conditions dry out. Weak ridging moves overhead Saturday, bringing a
dry day with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another cold front arrives to bring another chance for rain on
Sunday. Still a bit of model spread in terms of the track of the
low, with the latest guidance pulling further north. Therefore, as
of now, the best chances for any showers (around 25-35%) on Sunday
will be across the northern half of the region.

Cooler, but more seasonable air begins to filter in across the
region Sunday night with highs on Monday mainly in the upper 40s to
low 50s. Long-range guidance continues to suggest a reinforcing cold
front will arrive later on Monday, with a few showers possible ahead
of the front on Monday, mainly across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley.
Can`t fully rule out the chance for some flurries or snow showers
during the day Monday either, most likely in the southern Poconos.
As a result of the front, temperatures fall down below climo with
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the 40s as high pressure builds
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR. West/southwest winds around 5 kt or less. High
confidence.

Thursday...VFR with mostly clear skies. West winds becoming more
southwest as the day goes on, and south to southeast later in the
afternoon along the shore, up to ACY, but mainly less than 10 kt.
High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Southerly winds around 5-10 knots. A
light rain shower possible (25-35% chance), mainly northwest of the
I-95 terminals. Moderate confidence.

Friday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible with chances (45-
55%) for showers or possibly a thunderstorm. 10-15 knot winds start
southwesterly then become northwesterly Friday night behind a front.
Low confidence.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. West-northwest winds around 10 knots during
the day become southwesterly overnight. Moderate confidence.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chances (20-30%) for light rain showers.
Southwest winds 10-15 knots becoming west-northwesterly late in the
day. Low confidence.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Chances (15-25%) for light rain showers.
West-northwest winds around 15 knots. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected for all waters through Thursday and
beyond. South/southwest winds around 5-10 kt through tonight,
picking up a little to 10-12 kt and tending southerly on Thursday.
Seas on the ocean will continue to be only 1 to 2 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated for
most of the period as winds are expected to be mainly 10-15 knots
with seas of 1-3 feet. Periods of gusts of 20-25 knots are possible
though, particularly Thursday night and then beginning Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding remains possible for the Delaware River,
with Burlington reaching Advisory thresholds by Thursday morning.
Will go ahead and combine the counties along the Burlington River
for the high tide cycle Thursday morning. The Delaware River at
Philadelphia will come close to minor thresholds, but may not reach
Advisory thresholds.

For Delaware Bay, forecast tide levels now look to be below minor
thresholds, so will cancel the Coastal Flood Advisory that was in
effect for the counties along Delaware Bay.

Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible for the Atlantic coast,
but widespread coastal flooding not expected so will not issue
a Coastal Flood Advisory for the New Jersey oceanfront.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Dodd
NEAR TERM...Dodd/OHara
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/Dodd
MARINE...AKL/Dodd
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS


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