Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 230519
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1019 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK N-S TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH
WESTERLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF THOSE SAME
AREAS IN THE EARLY AFTN. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT FROM A
TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING SOME BREEZY WINDS AND CHANCES
OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THESE WAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH QUICKLY
SO QPF WILL BE LIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NRN
BLKHLS WHERE UPSLOPING MAY ENHANCE PRECIP. LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS WILL KEEP ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS
ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN TO NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS FRI MORNING. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRI MORNING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL OTHER PLACES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JC





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