Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 151555
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
855 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR HAAKON AND ZIEBACH
COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IS STILL IN EFFECT ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA THROUGH 11 AM
THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

FREEZING RAIN HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...SO CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THERE.
STILL COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS THERE...ALTHOUGH THINK THE UPSLOPING WILL
BE LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL KS...PUSHING PRECIP INTO
SOUTHERN SD IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD. EXPECT IT TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW EVENTUALLY...ALTHOUGH A MIX MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MORNING...SO EXTENDED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO 15Z. SNOW HAS HAD A
SLOW START IN NORTHEASTERN WY. NORTHERN HILLS FROUDE NUMBER GOES
BELOW 1 BY 15Z...AND SO DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH UPSLOPE SNOW AS
ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. RECALCULATED SNOW AMOUNTS AND REDUCED THEM
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/NORTHERN HILLS...PROBABLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA NOW BUT WILL LEAVE ADVISORY OUT NONETHELESS. ALSO
HAVE LESS SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN SD...AS SOME OF IT HAS
FALLEN AS FREEZING RAIN...BUT STILL 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED BREEZY OVERNIGHT...AND EXPECT THEM TO
INCREASE AGAIN TODAY. ONCE THE MIX ACTUALLY CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW...BLOWING SNOW MAY RESULT.

DRY AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY TODAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...AND
PRECIP WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND A BIT LONGER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN CWA. RAISED LOW TEMPS THERE A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER ACROSS THAT AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

A WEAK RIDGE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...AND SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 10 TO 20. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLOUDIER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK WAVE THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MID WEEK AS
DEEP TROF MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. FOR THE WEEKEND...PATTERN
EVOLVES INTO SPLIT FLOW ...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. PATTERN FAVORS DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH IFR VSBY. HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFR VSBY. SOME
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ024-
     025-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR SDZ027-041>044-046-047-049.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
     WYZ054>057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7





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