Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 151005

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
405 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Upper level analysis has large trof across the western CONUS, with
several shortwaves lifting through the Great Basin and northern
Plains. Skies are cloudy across the area with showers and isolated
thunderstorms ongoing. At the surface, Low pressure was located
across the Nebraska panhandle with a weak trof extending north
into eastern Montana. Temperatures at 3am were in the upper 50s to
mid 60s, with light southerly winds.

Good chances for showers and isolated storms will continue today
into tonight as shortwave trough moves across the Rockies and into
the Plains. Area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary
will slide slowly east along the SD/NE border today, with the
best instability this afternoon into this evening across southern
SD into NE. The best chance for a few strong to severe storms will
be southeast of the Black Hills and especially near the low
pressure area along the NE border. With abundant moisture, a few
storms could produce very heavy rainfall. Highs will only be in
the upper 60s and 70s with a good deal of showers and cloud cover
in most areas. Main shower activity will exit from west to east
tonight, with a few showers possibly lingering across south
central SD into early Wednesday morning.

The rest of the week and the weekend look drier and warmer as weak
ridging and drier westerly flow will be in place across the
region. Highs will be back to near average levels Thursday through
the weekend. A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible on Thursday, and again on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1206 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA will continue through the period
with some MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. Local IFR conditions with the
strongest storms.




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