Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 010532
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
132 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control
through Thursday, bringing fair and mild conditions, along with
comfortable humidity levels to the region. An approaching cold
front will bring a threat of showers to the region Thursday night
into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...High clouds were spreading across the region
but just thin high clouds. Winds are slowly easing and should
trend toward calm by daybreak.

For tonight, a weak secondary cold front will settle southward,
reaching the southern Adirondacks around or just before midnight,
then the Lake George/Saratoga region shortly after midnight, and
then the greater Capital Region, Berkshires and eastern Catskills
well after midnight. The boundary should dissipate as it heads
southward before daybreak.

Some patchy clouds may accompany the frontal boundary across
northern areas, before breaking up later tonight. Also, some high
clouds will stream northeast from the Ohio Valley region at times
overnight. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to reach the
mid/upper 50s in most valley areas, and 45-50 across higher
elevations. Some portions of the mid Hudson Valley may only drop
to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday-Wednesday night, high pressure should bring generally
dry conditions, with just occasional high/mid level clouds at
times. Temps may be a bit cooler than today, with mainly lower 80s
for valleys, and upper 60s to mid 70s across higher elevations.
Wednesday night/Thursday morning low temperatures should fall into
the 50s to around 60 for valley areas, and 45-50 across portions
of the western Adirondacks.

Thursday-Friday, models have trended slightly slower with the next
frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes region during this
time frame, with most deterministic and ensemble guidance
suggesting most showers hold off until after sunset Thursday. Have
indicated some chance POPS across far western areas for late
Thursday afternoon, just in case models trend a bit quicker again.
Otherwise, dry for Thursday with a gradual increase in clouds,
along with increasing south to southeast winds. For Thursday night
and Friday, expect showers to gradually overspread the region from
NW to SE, although may not reach SE areas until closer to daybreak
Friday. Instability parameters are not overly impressive, with
showalter indices barely dipping to around zero across far NW
areas Thursday night. So, only slight chance for thunder mentioned
at this time for the western Adirondacks Thursday night. On
Friday, the front is expected to slow down and weaken as it
settles southeast across the region, as best upper level support
lifts to our N and W, and the low level thermal gradient weakens.
Again, for now no thunder mentioned on Friday, especially given
unknowns at this time range on amount of any breaks in the clouds
leading to pockets of diabatic heating and instability.

As for temperatures, for Thursday sided with the warmer MOS
guidance, with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s,
with some of the warmest temperatures possibly across NW areas
which may be less modified due to any possible marine influence.
However, all areas have the potential to be much warmer if there
is sufficient sunshine, perhaps reaching well into the 80s for
lower elevations. Thursday night/Friday morning lows should fall
into the 50s to lower 60s. On Friday, expect high temperatures
mainly in the 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
One system exits Friday night with just some lingering scattered to
isolated showers and gradually improving sky conditions. Saturday
through Sunday morning looks dry as flat upper ridging and weak
surface ridging builds east into our region.  Highs Saturday in the
mid 70s to lower 80s...but a little cooler in higher elevations.

There is still a broad consensus on some strong upper energy
developing around the Great Lakes Sunday...but there are questions
about whether it forms into an upper cut off low...whether the
center of the upper energy tracks just north of our region or
through our region...and the timing of approach and exit.  If the
upper energy does develop into an upper cut off and track through
our region...there could be a prolonged unsettled period with some
potential for very heavy rain in some areas.  If the upper energy is
not cut off and moves east quicker...then shorter period of
unsettled weather and less potential for very heavy rain. There are
some hints that cooling aloft with the strengthening upper energy
could support enhanced thunderstorm activity as well.  Lots of
details to work out...which will get clearer as we approach the
weekend.

So...increasing clouds and coverage of showers Sunday afternoon with
highs in the mid to upper 70s...cooler in higher terrain.  Better
coverage of showers...possible scattered thunderstorms Monday with
highs in the 70s...but 60s in higher terrain. There could be a
period of decreasing coverage of showers Monday morning and maybe a
few breaks in the clouds before any cold pool aloft approaches
but then redevelopment and increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Upper energy may be in the process
of exiting late Monday night and Tuesday with possible gradual
improvement in sky conditions and coverage of showers decreasing
to just isolated. Highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 70s...but 60s
higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF forecast cycle ending
06z/Thursday.

While a ridge of high pressure will be building southward from
eastern Canada, there is a weak frontal boundary drifting
southward. There is some higher level clouds and a sct-bkn mid
level cloud deck slowly advancing southward from northern NY per
the 11u-3.9u satellite imagery. Some of these clouds may make it
into KGFL overnight.

Through the daylight hours Wednesday, indications of some
diurnally driven cumulus developing with the greatest impact at
KPSF. Then heading late in the day and evening hours, southerly
flow will advect in additional mid level moisture for more sct-bkn
cigs across the entire region.

Winds will generally be rather light with speeds less than 10kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control
through Thursday, bringing fair and mild conditions, along with
comfortable humidity levels to the region. An approaching cold
front will bring a threat of showers to the region Thursday night
into Friday.

RH values will recover to 80-100 percent tonight, with some dew
formation possible. The RH will then fall into the 35-45 percent
range Wednesday afternoon, before recovering to 75-90 percent for
Wednesday night.

West to northwest winds of 15-25 mph before sunset this evening
will diminish to 5-15 mph after sunset, then shift into the north
to northeast at similar speeds after midnight. On Wednesday, winds
will be mainly from the northeast to east at 5-15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build into our region with dry weather
continuing through Thursday. The next chance for showers will
return Thursday night and Friday as a frontal system approaches
from the Great Lakes region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/11
HYDROLOGY...KL/11/JPV

www.weather.gov/albany



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.