Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 270212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEYS...AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FAIR WEATHER...AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM...TEMPS STILL FALLING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
AND HAVE DROPPED HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT MINS BY ANOTHER 2 TO 3
DEGREES. LOWS ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 700 PM EST...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPS IN SOME PLACES
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO NEAR OR BELOW THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS
FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL SLOW DOWN OR POSSIBLY REVERSE...WILL NEED TO
LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS BY 4 TO 6 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS...AND ONE OR TWO DEGREES IN FAR NORTHERN
AREAS.
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WIND...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDEVELOP
AND SLOWLY BUILD BACK E AND S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BY DAYBREAK...AND INTO SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
REACHES FURTHER SOUTH...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM AND RAP13
H925 RH FIELDS...BUT FOR NOW...HAVE THE SOUTHERN EDGE A BIT
FURTHER NORTH.

ONCE THE LOWER CLOUDS REDEVELOP/EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE DEVELOPS AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE INDICATED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD INITIALLY REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 IN THE MORNING...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND FURTHER S
AND E IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE WILL BE
IN THE MORNING HOURS...AND MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...WITH CLOUDS
MORE PREVALENT TO THE N AND W OF ALBANY. RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...IT APPEARS THAT SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME MORE DOMINANT IN THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUDS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND SUNSET...WHEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS
MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP/REACH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS S AND E...AND MAINLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S TO THE N AND W.

SAT NT-SUN...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND PASS SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMMEDIATELY PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE BEST CHC ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
WESTERN MA. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TOWARD AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY
MORNING...BECOMING CONFINED TO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
WET SNOW COULD OCCUR ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS
AND WESTERN BERKSHIRES BEFORE SHOWERS END LATE SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS...SAT NT SHOULD BE RATHER MILD DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND ALSO A DEVELOPING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. THE MILDEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS MAY REMAIN ABOVE 40
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S...MAINLY DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS ONCE RAIN
SHOWERS OCCUR. MOST MIN TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK. FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 40S...AND POSSIBLY 45-50 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S...WITH TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT POSSIBLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUN NT INTO EARLY MON. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIP TO EXPAND BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT SUN NT. THIS IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY...WITH MOST
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ANY PRECIP REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
HAVE INDICATED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SMALL POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...AT
THIS TIME...MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. PERSISTENT HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HOW
COLD IT GETS DESPITE COLD ADVECTION...SO HAVE GENERALLY SIDED
CLOSER TO...OR A BIT ABOVE THE SLIGHTLY MILDER MAV MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO NORMALLY COLD TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
/EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A RETURN OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW/.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A COUPLE OF SHOTS WITH ARCTIC
AIR FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2014.  THE FIRST PIECE OF THIS COLDER
AIR ARRIVES MONDAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE...NEAR 1050MB BUILDING
INTO MONTANA...EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND NEW ENGLAND.  H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BACK TO
BETWEEN -10C TO -15C MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  THIS WILL EQUAL TOO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS.

THE NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS THE H850 TEMPS
DROPS BACK A FEW MORE DEGREES.  THIS ALONG WITH A NEAR PARALLEL FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE WILL FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
REDEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED DURING THIS LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY. EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
MAINLY JUST SCT HI CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. LATER TONIGHT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND A MAINLY VFR CLOUDS DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
THE TAF SITES. AT KGFL THE CLOUD DECK IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS AFTER ABOUT 07Z. AT KALB/KPSF
THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW VFR RANGE. KPOU MAY REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR OR JUST GET SCT CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVER LEVELS ARE NOW RECEDING ACROSS THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS OF MAINLY
RAIN FOR VALLEYS...RAIN/SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...FOR SAT NT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...THEREFORE HAVING
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON RECEDING RIVER LEVELS.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...ARE EXPECTED
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER












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