Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 250143
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
943 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An early autumn air mass has settled into the region which will
last through the remainder of the weekend. Overnight low
temperatures the next couple of nights will dip down into the
thirties in some areas, allowing for at least the potential for
some frost. The next chance for wet conditions arrives Monday
night with the approach of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 930 PM EDT, skies remain mostly clear, and where winds have
decreased to less than 5 mph, temps have already dropped into the
lower/mid 40s, such as across the northern Berkshires and portions
of southern VT and the western Adirondacks. Elsewhere,
temperatures are settling back through the upper 40s to mid 50s.

There will be a weak reinforcement of slightly drier air settling
southward overnight, as suggested in the latest RAP13 H925
Theta-E/wind fields. This may act to enhance boundary layer
mixing slightly later this evening and overnight, possibly
limiting fog potential to along/near bodies of water. Otherwise,
no changes to the current frost advisory headlines as the higher
terrain will be the most susceptible. Lows will range from the mid
30s to lower 40s.

Big bubble no trouble through Sunday as that large surface high
moves across the region. Per forecast soundings, it would appear
the atmospheric profiles will be even drier so a mostly sunny day
expected. Mixing layer heights are forecast to be near H850 and
pure dry adiabatic mixing should yield highs into the 60s for
valley locations and 50s elsewhere.

An even colder night is set for Sunday night where frost and
freeze headlines will likely be required for more areas. The main
question will be if some of the higher cirrus clouds move in just
before sunrise over western areas but given trends of a little
slower arrival of our next system, we will continue with the
clear and chilly night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The surface high slides off the northeast/mid-Atlantic coastlines
Monday morning. The storm currently impacting the Rocky Mountains
begins to move out onto the plains and eventually into the Great
Lakes and northeast corridors Monday into Tuesday. Rather strong
moisture transport in advance of the cold front commences Monday
into Monday night. In fact, some of this moisture will have deep
tropical connections which favors a period of wet weather Monday
night. A brisk southerly breeze will develop late in the day
Monday as some channeling up the Hudson River with favorable
mixing heights near H850 for gusts at or above 20kts expected. The NCEP
model suite is in rather good agreement with the timing of the
frontal passage Monday night where we will have likely PoPs for
showers/period of rain. Showalter values at this time remain a
bit positive as we will withhold the mention in the
grids/forecast. As PWATs climb toward and above 1.50 inches, a
brief period of moderate (and needed) rainfall could occur.

Timing of the frontal passage will be Tuesday morning with areas
to the east of the Hudson remaining under a threat for showers
through the mid morning hours. Thereafter, we find ourselves
within the dry slot with the departing surface front and
vertically stacked low over the upper Great Lakes. So breaks of
sunshine as temperatures remain in the 60s for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cooler air is finally in place, but this does not mean we are
looking at a cooling trend just yet. The high and low temperature
trend the entire work week is expected to hold quite steady, with
highs mainly from the upper 50s to upper 60s each day. Saturday
could be a couple of degrees warmer. The lows will be mainly in
the mid and upper 40s, with readings possibly holding up in the
lower 50s in the Mid-Hudson Valley.

The air behind a cold front passing through our forecast area by
Tuesday night will be cold-starved. A weak trof will linger for a
couple of days as the low pressure center with this system becomes
cut off over the Lake Huron and southern Ontario. Being also
moisture-starved, only spotty areas of scattered light showers
are expected at any point through Friday. Most locations should
remain dry while much of the remainder should see nothing more
than a trace.

The cutoff finally breaks down, and high pressure gradually builds
over our area from the southwestern U.S., which will provide some
warming and drying to start the weekend.  In addition, there will be
a gradual lessening of the cloud cover from Thursday on.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will continue building across the region overnight
through Sunday.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through at least 00Z/Mon.
However, there is a slight chance for patchy ground fog developing
at traditionally susceptible locations between roughly 07Z-
11Z/Sun, such as KGFL and KPSF. A light north wind and slightly
drier air building south may prevent fog at KGFL, and thus have
kept out any mention. There is a slightly better chance at KPSF,
where a period of MVFR conditions are indicated, but if the fog
forms, some IFR conditions will be possible.

North winds at 5-10 KT will decrease to less than 5 KT overnight.
North to northwest winds will increase to 5-10 KT once again by
late Sunday morning, and may gust up to 15-20 KT in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night:  Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It will be dry through Monday with our next chances for rainfall
arriving Monday night.

Relative humidity values will recovery to 80 to 90 percent
tonight. Minimums Sunday afternoon are expected to be in the 30s
with a recovery to 90 to near 100 percent Sunday night.

Winds will be out of the northwest to north over the weekend at
speeds of 10 to 15 mph today, near calm tonight, and 5 to 10 mph
on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
It will be dry through Monday with our next chances for needed
rainfall arriving Monday night as a low pressure system
approaches from the west.

Precipitation departures so far this year at our climate sites are:
Albany NY: -3.30 inches
Glens Falls NY: -6.09 inches
Poughkeepsie NY: -11.22 inches
Bennington VT: -6.38 inches
Pittsfield MA: -7.81 inches

The U.S. Drought Monitor released in September 22nd shows drought
conditions have changed very little across the region. For
details visit: www.drought.gov

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ032-033-038-
     041-042-047-058-063-082-083.
MA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MAZ001.
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KL/OKeefe
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


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