Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 300545
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will control our weather today into
tonight with fair and dry conditions. A disturbance will work across
the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night offering a chance of
showers and some thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 129 AM EDT...High pressure continues to ridge in over NY
and New England with mostly clear to clear skies and light to calm
winds. In the dry air mass temps should continue to drop off into
the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region with the near ideal
radiational cooling conditions in place. We continued the mention
of patchy radiational fog especially near the major river valleys
and lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The high pressure brings dry weather into Tuesday, then slides
east Tuesday night. A series of weak disturbances brings the
threat of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday into Thursday.

A pre-frontal trough will work slowly across the region on
Wednesday. Better instability of 500-1000j/kg is noted across the
northwest half of the CWA. Bulk shear here is on the order of 30
knots. Mid level lapse rates are average around 6C/km. Severe
chances are low. Chance/slight chance forecast with higher
numbers across northwest CWA.

Front works through Wednesday nigh with continued chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Surface based instability is low, but
elevated instability remains. Severe chances are near nil.

Deep upper level trough will be swinging across the CWA on
Thursday. Differences between the NAM and GFS on instability
potential with NAM considerably more bullish. In any case, threat
looks to be capped at slight chance. Have mention of TSRA in the
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period starts out Thursday night with our region under a cool
northerly flow regime and an upper level trough axis moving
southward through the region. Any forcing from the upper trough
looks to be south of our area, so will mention dry conditions
although there will likely be at least some cloudiness associated
with the passage of the trough. Northerly flow persists into Friday,
although upper level heights will start to rise during the day so
more in the way of sunshine is expected. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal but still quite comfortable for early
September.

The entire Labor Day holiday weekend is shaping up to be a nice one
region-wide. An expansive area of high pressure will build south
from the Great Lakes and Canada, then take residence across the
Northeast CONUS. This will result in seasonably warm sunny days and
clear cool nights. There could be some radiational fog in favored
sheltered valleys and locations near bodies of water each night, but
too far out to mention explicitly in the forecast. Warmer temps
expected on Monday, as high pressure becomes anchored along the New
England coast and a southerly flow develops.

We will be watching the track of Tropical Depression 9 currently
in the Gulf of Mexico. The system will be tracking away from the
East Coast during the Labor Day weekend. The official NWS forecast
puts this low way east of the mid-Atlantic coast on Labor Day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly clear skies will continue through the night with just some
high cirrus clouds.

With good radiational cooling conditions in place tonight, fog
development expected at KPSF/KGFL starting around 07Z or 08Z. At
KALB...VFR conditions should persist with clear skies and light
or calm winds overnight into early Tuesday morning. Some fog is
possible at KPOU and MVFR vsby around sunrise is included the
KPOU TAF.

Any fog will dissipate by 13Z Tuesday, allowing for mostly sunny
skies with VFR conditions. Just a few passing diurnal cu and thin
cirrus clouds are expected. Winds on Tuesday will initially be
light and variable, becoming south to southwest around 5 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will control our weather into Tuesday night with
dry conditions. A disturbance will work across the area on
Wednesday and Wednesday night offering a chance of showers and
some thunderstorms.

Relative humidity values will recover to 85 to 100 percent
tonight and Tuesday night, and drop to 35 to 45 percent on
Tuesday.

Winds will be northwest at 5 to 15 mph tonight and southwest
around 5 mph on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are anticipated.

High pressure will control our weather into Tuesday night with
dry conditions. A disturbance will work across the area on
Wednesday and Wednesday night offering a chance of showers and
some thunderstorms.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKeefe/Wasula
NEAR TERM...OKeefe/JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...OKeefe
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...OKeefe
HYDROLOGY...OKeefe


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