Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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061
FXUS61 KALY 060346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1046 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER...LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WINDS HAVE WEAKEN ARE GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR
SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALSO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF MORE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDING TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION...WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TO WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND REMAINING AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE DAY WEAR
ON...WITH WIND SPEEDS AGAIN AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 30-35 ACROSS THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN...35-40 THE UPPER HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS/40-45
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA TO PROVIDE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD...TEENS FURTHER NORTH. THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

MONDAY WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A STORM AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK WELL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW OF
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
BREAKING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY...30-35
VALLEYS... 35-30 HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

ON MONDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL ONLY BE MINOR IMPACTS FROM THESE SYSTEMS. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE UP IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS THE
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FA FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION WE WILL BE REMOVING THE MENTION
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM OUR HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR
ALBANY GENERALLY HAS A RANGE OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING UP TO
FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.

IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR FEBRUARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN
THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z SUNDAY.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THE
LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SKIES HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND BE
SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MON NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OR IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON WAS ISSUED
ON FEBRUARY 4TH.

HIGHLIGHTS...REFER TO THE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS (ALBESFALY):

DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ALTHOUGH WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THE MOMENT...THERE
IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR RESERVOIR RECHARGE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SUPPLY OF RAIN AND
SNOW THROUGH SPRING INTO SUMMER FOR RESERVOIRS TO MAINTAIN ADEQUATE
LEVELS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS



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