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000
FXUS61 KALY 181707
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
107 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaching from west will gradually move
eastward across the region today, providing cool and unsettled
conditions with occasional showers and drizzle. After a brief
break tonight into Friday morning, additional showers are likely
Friday afternoon and night associated with a cold frontal
passage. Cool and breezy conditions return for the upcoming
weekend, with a few passing showers possible Saturday, and dry
conditions for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...Widespread showers have moved into far NE NY and
central New England early this afternoon. So mainly scattered
light showers and/or patchy drizzle will occur in our area
through the rest of the day. It will remain overcast and quite
cool, with temperatures only in the 30s(mountains) and
40s(valleys).

.PREV DISCUSSION[1023]...Radar and satellite imagery continue
to indicate the entire region socked in with clouds and
cool/damp conditions. Bands of showers and/or patchy drizzle
will persist into the afternoon as an occluded front slowly
moves in from the west. Made some minor adjustments based on
current obs and trends.

East/southeast winds have become gusty across portions of the SW
Adirondacks, as well as western slopes of the southern Greens,
Berkshires and northern Taconics, where some gusts have peaked
at 35-40 mph. Expect similar gusts through mid morning in these
areas before gradually diminishing this afternoon.

Other than the occasional rain showers, it will be rather raw
today with temperatures generally holding in the mid/upper 40s
for valley areas, and lower/mid 40s across higher elevations,
coolest across southern VT and the Berkshires, where a bit of
sleet or wet snow can not be ruled out later today for
elevations above 2000 feet.

East/southeast winds will be gusty through this morning across
portions of the SW Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, and portions of
the southern Greens and Berkshires, where some gusts of 25-30
mph are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak mid level ridging builds across the region tonight through
Friday morning, limiting overall precipitation chances, although
some patchy drizzle will remain possible. Abundant low level
moisture will also keep skies mostly cloudy, though a few breaks
of sun are possible Friday morning. Lows tonight in the upper
30s to lower/mid 40s.

Cold front approaching from the west should allow for showers to
increase in areal coverage from west to east Friday afternoon
into Friday evening. Overall moisture transport is fairly weak,
so overall coverage of showers may remain limited, especially
for areas near and east of the Hudson River. It should be milder
than today, especially in areas where any breaks of sun develop
in the morning, with highs mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Showers move across the region Friday evening, then taper off
from NW to SE later Friday night as the front passes through.
Lows by daybreak Saturday ranging from the mid 30s across the SW
Adirondacks and higher elevations of southern VT/eastern
Catskills, to the lower/mid 40s elsewhere.

An upper level shortwave and attendant secondary cold front
will cross the region Saturday afternoon. This will bring
isolated to scattered showers of rain in valleys, and
rain/graupel and snow to higher elevations. Even in valley
areas, can not rule out a bit of graupel with any taller
showers. It will be breezy, with west/northwest winds
potentially gusting to 25-35 mph in the afternoon, perhaps even
higher within any passing showers. High temperatures should
reach the mid 50s to lower 60s in valley areas given potentially
deep mixing ahead of secondary cold front, with 40s across
higher terrain areas. Temps may fall off into the 40s/30s in the
afternoon as showers pass through.

Colder for Saturday night with clear to partly cloudy skies,
along with persistent breezy conditions. Lows mainly in the 30s,
with some 20s across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain
of southern VT/eastern Catskills.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Although a shortwave will have departed off to the east, a broad
upper level trough will remain in place over the Northeast on
Sunday.  With weak forcing and limited moisture in place, there
won`t be any precip, although temps will remain on the cooler side,
with daytime temps in the 50s.  With decent mixing in place thanks
to cooler temps aloft, there should be breezy conditions in place,
along with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

Some moderation is expected early next week, so temps should get
back close to normal for Monday and Tuesday, with valley highs back
into the low to middle 60s.  Surface high pressure will continue to
keep it dry on Monday with plenty of sun.  Some clouds may start to
return by Tuesday.  With a storm system approaching from the west,
some light showers are possible by late Tuesday, with the best
chance on Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Precip looks fairly light
with this system.  With the clouds and precip, temps may wind up
being a little cooler on Wednesday, with mainly 50s across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A storm system located south of the region will be bringing some
periods of light rain to the region through today.  Flying
conditions have been fairly variable this morning, with sites
varying from VFR to IFR.  Based on model soundings and upstream
observations, flying conditions will generally be MVFR for most of
the time, with ceilings in the 1500 to 2500 ft range.  Most of the
rain showers are fairly light and are having a limited impact on
visibility.  Still, can`t totally rule out brief periods of IFR
visibility within some mist or lower ceilings, but any of this looks
fairly brief and will generally keep MVFR conditions at the TAF
sites for this morning into the mid to late afternoon hours for all
sites. CAMs suggests best chance for rain will be earlier in the
day, with a tendency for precip to taper off by later today.

Some improvement in ceilings is possible for the evening and into
the overnight, although will continue to show ceilings around MVFR
levels for late in the TAF period as well.

Winds will be variable initially this morning, but will be trending
towards the south to southeast during the day from about 5 to 10
kts and this will continue into tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Scattered SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis