Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 300751
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
351 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly fair and seasonable weather is forecast for today before a
storm system approaching from the Ohio valley brings a threat of
widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today...Expect some sun this morning before clouds start to
increase and thicken during the late morning into the afternoon
hours. The HRRR composite reflectivity shows showers moving into
the eastern Catskills by early to mid afternoon and gradually
spreading north and east. Expect highs today to be in the mid 70s
to mid 80s with north to northeast winds at around 5 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For the entire short term period expect unsettled weather with
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms becoming more numerous
across the forecast area through Monday. The activity looks to
diminish some by Monday night. The expected rainfall from this
event looks to be between an inch and 2 and a half inches. The
rainfall is much needed as much of the region is very dry. The
rainfall will result from a slow moving low pressure system
tracking east from the Ohio Valley this evening across northern
Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York on Sunday and off
the Long Island coast on Monday morning. PWATS during the period
of most intense rainfall mainly Sunday and Sunday night rise to
between 1.5 and 2 inches. Expect lows Saturday night to be in the
upper 50s to upper 60s with highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s
with highs on Monday in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows Monday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with our region still under the
influence of an upper level trough and cyclonic flow. So one more
day of mostly cloudy skies, relatively cool temperatures, and
scattered showers expected, before the flow is forecast to become
anticyclonic Tuesday night as the upper trough pulls away.

Dry conditions with warming temperatures expected from Wednesday
through Thursday, as upper level heights rise with surface high
pressure gradually shifting from directly over the region on
Wednesday, to the southern New England coast by Thursday.

The ECMWF is more pronounced with an upper level ridge building in
by Friday, while the GFS is showing flatter flow aloft with an
approaching cold front on Friday. The ECMWF delays the cold front
until Friday night given the strength of the ridge. Will side with
the slower the ECMWF for now and mention only slight to low chance
pops on Friday, with high chance pops across much of the area Friday
night. Either way, it will be very warm with increasing humidity
ahead of the cold front for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some drier air has drifted southward down the upper Hudson Valley
from around the KGFL to KALB corridor, but its southward progress
seems to have stopped. High pressure will briefly build in for
early today, before a frontal boundary approaches from the
southwest late today into this evening.

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours
ending 06Z Sunday. The only exception will be at KPSF, where
occasional fog with IFR/MVFR conditions are expected from around
07Z-11Z this morning. Dewpoint still in the lower 60s at KPSF,
with temperatures cooling. Drier air will likely preclude any
radiation fog formation at KGFL/KALB.

High and mid level clouds will increase and thicken today ahead of
the frontal boundary. Some showers may approach KPOU/KPSF/KALB late
this afternoon or early evening from the south and west. Some
steadier showers may develop either later this evening or
overnight, so will monitor trends for the next TAF issuance.

Wind will initially be light and variable this morning, becoming
mainly northeast around 5 kt later this morning into the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. No SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly fair and seasonable weather is forecast for today before a
storm system approaching from the Ohio valley brings a threat of
widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms for Sunday and
Monday.

Relative humidity values will drop to 40 to 65 percent today,
recover to 80 to 95 percent tonight, and only drop to 65 to 85
percent on Sunday.

Winds will be north to northeast at around 5 mph today through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the region is currently running 3 to 8 inches below normal
on annual rainfall. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of
the area is considered abnormally dry (category D0), and parts of
the Catskills and western New England are within a moderate drought
(category D1).

Mainly dry weather is expected today, with the next chance of
widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms arriving
tonight and lasting into early next week. Rainfall amounts in
many areas could range between an inch and two and a half inches
through Monday night with local amounts possibly up to 3 inches.
This long duration rainfall would only produce minor rises on
area rivers if this much rain does occur. Most of the rain will
soak into the ground and is much needed in many areas.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS


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