Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 250347 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Storms to the northwest over Arkansas, Western Tennessee, and
Northern Mississippi are moving to the southeast toward Alabama.
However, they have been decreasing in intensity on radar, showing
warming cloud tops on IR satellite and have dramatically decreased
in lightning activity with the loss of heating. Most of the models
do not have any precip making it into Central Alabama. The 00z
HRRR tries to bring in a light shower in the northwest counties
well after midnight, but will only carry some unmentioned 10 pops
in the grids as the probability is very low that any storms hold
together that far to the southeast. Have made only minimal changes
to the overnight lows. They will be milder once again tonight.
Have added in more cloud cover in the grids as we should get a
little increased cloudiness from the decaying storms.
00Z TAF Discussion.
VFR and rain free conditions will continue through the period and
beyond. Winds will be mainly calm tonight, becoming southerly 5-10
kts tomorrow afternoon.
Dry conditions are expected through the week with only minimal
rain chances. Low level moisture will slowly increase through the
end of the week. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.
/Issued 307 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/
The doldrums of summer weather have already set-in across Alabama.
An upper ridge over the Southeast states will keep the active
weather on the western and northern periphery of Alabama through
Friday. Despite above normal temperatures for the next several
days, afternoon humidity values will be bearable with values
dropping into the 30 percent range. A few showers or thunderstorms
may pop-up Thursday and Friday across the far northern counties.
Slightly better rain chances once we get into the weekend as a
surface low off the Southeast coast moves close to the Carolinas,
but rain chances only at 20 percent. The Atlantic system could
bring a slight cool down for the eastern counties Friday and
Saturday as cooler air off the Atlantic shifts westward, but
warming up again as the Sunday and Monday as the low level flow
becomes northerly. The models are not showing much rainfall early
next week due to weak ridging over the Southeast states with an
embedded remnant low to our east.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 58 88 61 89 65 / 0 10 10 10 10
Anniston 60 88 64 88 66 / 0 10 0 10 10
Birmingham 62 88 66 89 68 / 0 10 10 10 10
Tuscaloosa 62 88 64 89 67 / 0 10 0 10 10
Calera 61 87 66 88 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Auburn 61 88 65 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Montgomery 62 90 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Troy 61 89 62 91 67 / 0 0 0 10 10