Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 012318
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AGREES QUITE WELL WITH MODEL
DEPICTION THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW JUST INTO THE
WESTERLIES WILL TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OPEN UP.
MEANWHILE...CUT-OFF ENERGY WILL LINGER FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

PSEUDO-BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS
IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SYNOPTIC
MODEL OUTPUT IS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT HERE.

LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY KEEPS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH A FEW
EASTERLY WAVES MOVING PAST THE REGION. MEAN MOISTURE FLUCTUATES
BUT GENERALLY INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ALSO GO UP AND DOWN...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 1.50
INCHES.

THEREFORE...KEPT THE SAME TRENDS AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAIN
CHANCES GO UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND OVERALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN SOME ADVERTISED GUIDANCE DUE TO RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS. EXPECT A FEW OF THE PERIODS TO HAVE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASED WHEN THE TIMING OF THE EASTERLY LIFT BECOMES
CLEARER.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTH. DID ADD IN A TEMPO FPR MVFR BR
AT EET...ANB...AND TCL.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND BEYOND. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES THROUGHOUT. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    70  90  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  71  90  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  72  92  73  92  72 /  10  10  10  20  10
CALERA      72  89  73  90  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
AUBURN      72  90  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  73  94  74  93  73 /  10  10  10  30  20
TROY        71  93  73  92  72 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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