Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 251801 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY AS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARE STILL BACK IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. WITH SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH WINDS TODAY WE ARE WARMING UP NICELY. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
ARE RISING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO...THEY HAVE A
LONG WAY TO GO AS WE ARE ON THE DRY SIDE AND THE SAME HOLDS TRUE
FOR INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL FOR MOST HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT...BUT WITH AVAILABLE HEATING...WILL NOT REMOVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTIONED IN GRIDS FOR THE FAR NORTH FOR LATE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDER. HAVE TWEAKED UP
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND EXPECTED
LATE START TIME FOR ANY CONVECTION. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

08/MK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SOME SCT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME CU AT BEST. BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAFS. MOISTURE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH AT
MGM/TOI WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR LATE NIGHT POSSIBLY
SOME WITH THE -RA BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT EARLY ON...SO WILL INCLUDE
ONLY SCT LOW CLOUDS EARLY ON IN THE NIGHT.

08/MK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND ARE FORECAST TO COOL OVERNIGHT...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL START TO BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR TOWARD
MONDAY MORNING. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...I DID NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT
SUPPORTED THE INCLUSION OF ANY WINTRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS STAY TOO HIGH DURING THE TIME OF MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...AND DON`T FALL TO LEVELS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AND MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RATHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL MORE SYSTEMS TEASING US
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS ZIPPING ABOUT NEXT WEEK...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANY
TEMPERATURE EXTREMES OR MAJOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  38  42  31  53 /  20  40  10   0   0
ANNISTON    59  39  44  31  54 /  10  40  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  60  39  44  34  55 /  10  30  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  61  40  47  35  59 /  10  20  10   0   0
CALERA      59  39  45  34  56 /  10  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      58  40  47  34  56 /   0  20  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  62  41  49  34  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
TROY        61  41  50  35  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

08/61





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