Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 061142
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FINAL REMNANTS OF THE OLD TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY...AND CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON WHAT EXACTLY WILL
TRANSPIRE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. BASED ON
YESTERDAY AND SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVE DECIDED TO GO A BIT
LOWER ON POPS...WITH SOME EARLY SHOWERS AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE POPS NEED TO RAISED A LITTLE LATER ONCE
CONVECTION GETS GOING...IF IT DOES AT ALL. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA LATER TODAY TAKING WITH IT THE LAST OF ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR A WHILE.

IN ITS STEAD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK WESTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SETTING UP A MORE TYPICAL JULY PATTERN. WITH
IT...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD AS THE HIGH
WORKS WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONGER TERM GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING YET ANOTHER TROUGH BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...SO COOLER AND
WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.

17/KLAWS


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO PLAY HAVOC ON THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4
HOURS. LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL IT CLEARS. GENERALLY VFR
AFTER 15 TO 16Z AT ALL SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE EVEN A
VCTS AT THIS TIME.

NOTE: EET SENSOR HAS HAD ERRORS THIS MORNING AND ONLY CIG IS
AVAILABLE. WILL ADD IN AMD NOT SKED UNTIL IT CAN BE REPAIRED.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE MORE TYPICAL
OF SUMMER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
WARMER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  70  91  71  91 /  30  10  20  20  20
ANNISTON    86  70  90  71  91 /  20  10  20  20  20
BIRMINGHAM  87  72  91  73  92 /  30  10  20  20  20
TUSCALOOSA  89  73  93  74  93 /  30  10  20  20  20
CALERA      86  71  91  73  91 /  20  10  20  20  20
AUBURN      85  70  89  72  90 /  20  10  20  20  20
MONTGOMERY  88  72  93  73  93 /  20  10  20  20  20
TROY        89  70  92  71  94 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.