Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 292343
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
643 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE MONTH OF JULY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED
LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS COMBINATION HAS LEFT THE FORECAST AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATED A COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A BACKING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
THIS COLD DRY AIR ADVECTION HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE. THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE RECORD LOWS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND THE CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET. THE AIRMASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET ALL TIME RECORD LOWS
FOR THE MONTH OF JULY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR FURTHER CLIMATE
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WITH A
FEW OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH PW VALUES NEAR TWO
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. WITH THE FORECAST PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DELAYED
THE START OF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES LATE IN THE
WEEK AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
ECMWF HANGS UP THE FRONT FURTHER TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE NATURE OF
THE PATTERN...HAVE SIDED A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THIS SUMMER.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

88

&&

.CLIMATE...

7/30 WEDNESDAY

STATION       FORECAST TEMP      RECORD LOW(YEAR)

BIRMINGHAM         59              61 (1994)
MONTGOMERY         60              66 (1889)
TUSCALOOSA         59              67 (1954, 1960, 1965, 1969)
ANNISTON           56              61 (1903)

STATION             ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR JULY

BIRMINGHAM         54 (7/1/1972, 7/6/1972, 7/1/1950)
MONTGOMERY                59 (7/20/2009)
TUSCALOOSA                54 (7/1/1950)
ANNISTON                  51 (7/1/1950)

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.