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000
FXUS62 KCAE 181801
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
AUGUSTA AREA. EXPECT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING
AND APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRONT WILL BE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE MID LEVELS. WITH CLOUDS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OUT WEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE DRAGS
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER QUITE WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAN ON A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY. EXPECT DIURNAL MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH CAE AREA NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 COULD CAUSE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
CAUSE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ATMOSPHERE IS A
LITTLE DRIER WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN FROM 2.0 INCHES TODAY TO ABOUT
1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY EXITS TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE VICINITY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ON THE RISE. HIGHS UPPER 80S FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD AS EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO...FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SUMMER SOLSTICE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES WITH IMPACTS AT AGS/DNL EXPECTED BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR CAE/CUB/OGB BEGINNING AT 19Z. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET...HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NEXT CONCERN IS POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS AND FOG AFTER 19/06Z...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOR AGS/OGB
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND SUNRISE HOURS. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL ERODE
QUICKLY WITH CONDITIONS FROM 19/13Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD EXPECTED VFR.

NOTE...AGS ASOS HAS BEEN RETURNED TO SERVICE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$