Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231444
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1044 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and fair weather will occur through Friday with high
pressure dominating. A warming trend with increased moisture
will occur this weekend and early next week in a southerly flow
circulating into the area on the backside of offshore high
pressure and a weak frontal system just northwest of the
forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered over the Middle Atlantic States this
afternoon will be off the coast tonight. More of an onshore
flow will develop in the forecast area as the high shifts
eastward. The significant moisture will remain shallow and
confined to the low levels because of upper ridging moving into
the area from the west. Expect stratocumulus at times under the
subsidence inversion. Leaned toward the more consistent GFS and
ECMWF MOS for the temperature forecast. Expect lows in the
middle and upper 30s in the north section tonight. However, the
chance of frost should be low because of some mixing plus the
models suggest a 10-degree temperature-dew point temperature
spread.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The high will begin to slowly weaken and shift slightly east
Friday, providing some moderation in temps/dewpoints. Upper
ridge over the area and strong subsidence expected. Temperatures
should warm back into the low 70s. Weak isentropic lift and
moisture recovery may provide some stratus, possible fog, late
Fri nt/Sat morning. Deep low in the Midwest will be moving
slowly east-northeast Saturday. Moisture continues to increase
Saturday with upper ridge weakening and shifting southeast...but
lift mainly west of the region and expect any showers to remain
west of the region through the afternoon. Continued warming
trend with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Closed upper low to shift NE from the Central Plains to the Great
Lakes, with upper trough axis approaching our region Sat nt and
moving through Sunday. Best upper dynamics to remain to our
north, but chance pops with possible thunderstorms expected in
weakly unstable air mass. Another upper trough/front appears
will move through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

High pressure centered over the Middle Atlantic States this
afternoon will be off the coast tonight. More of an onshore
flow will develop in the forecast area as the high shifts
eastward. The significant moisture will remain shallow and
confined to the low levels because of upper ridging moving into
the area from the west. Expect VFR stratocumulus at times under
the subsidence inversion. The NAM and GFS MOS plus SREF
guidance are consistent maintaining VFR conditions through the
evening. Some of the MOS guidance and SREF members indicate an
MVFR ceiling developing toward 12z associated with increased
low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling. The fog chance
appears limited by boundary layer mixing.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions may occur Saturday
morning in fog and stratus associated with an onshore flow.
Deeper moisture and a frontal system near the area may help
support scattered showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions Sunday and Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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