Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 181204
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
804 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...VISIBILITIES ONE HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECTING THE DAY TO START OFF WITH A
COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY NOON. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY AGAIN...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AM MORE
INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO BOTH
THE COAST ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...AND POSSIBLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OFF
TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...JUST BELOW
ISOLATED POP WORDING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 80
ACROSS THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO HAVE KEPT
POPS LOW. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY UNDER
THE WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY DRAGGING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO BELOW HALF
AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5
TO 7 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA ON WEDNESDAY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM...SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO VFR BY AROUND MIDDAY. DAYTIME HEATING PLUS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE OF SUCH AFFECTING TERMINALS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE
NIGHT PERIODS. EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ020>022-
     026>029-031-037-038.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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