Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 191148
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP HIGH MOISTURE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BELIEVE
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BECAUSE OF LESS LIFT AND MORE SHALLOW
MOISTURE. CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THE GFS DISPLAYS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUING
TO RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE NAM. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. BELIEVE LINGERING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE
SLOWER SHIFTING MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. WE USED AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE EAST SECTION.
CLOUDINESS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW SUPPORT USING THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
MAY BRING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE
AND WILL BE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST LATER THIS EVENING. BULK OF
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TO AROUND 20 KTS OR HIGHER. CEILINGS MAY
IMPROVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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