Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 241933
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
233 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017
High pressure ridge will be over the area this afternoon with a
cold front approaching from the northwest tonight. The cold
front will march through the area on Saturday with cool and dry
high pressure building across the area Sunday. Moisture returns
Monday as high pressure moves off the coast. Another cold front
will cross the region around the middle of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure well off the SE Coast will continue moving
northeastward from the region this afternoon with a ridge of
high pressure in control of the forecast area. High temperatures
are on track this afternoon and are still expected to approach
record highs for the date. The daily record at CAE is 81
degrees and 82 for AGS, both set in 1985. The situation will
begin changing late tonight as a cold front moves toward the
area from the west. Clouds will increase toward daybreak with
winds becoming southerly at around 5 mph. Overnight lows will be
in the mid 50s.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will move into the area Saturday morning then move
off the coast late afternoon. Main concern with the front
remains the limited moisture and best dynamics north of the
area. With 850 mb winds at and ahead of the front turning
westerly, expect some downsloping which will limit rain
chances. As such have remained with slight chance pops.
Rainfall which occurs will be light with amounts less than one
tenth of an inch. Strong pressure gradient Saturday afternoon
and Saturday night could warrant a lake wind advisory. High
pressure along with cooler and drier air will build into the
area Saturday night through Sunday night.
Above normal temperatures from the mid 70s west to around 80
east will cool to near normal Sunday. Model consensus indicated
overnight lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models indicate southwest flow aloft across the region with upper
ridging from the Caribbean into the southeastern states Monday into
Tuesday. Upper trough along the west coast on Monday moves east to
cross MS and OH River Valleys mid to late next week. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show surface high pressure off the coast with a moist
return flow and isentropic lift across the region Monday and Tuesday
as a warm front lifts north across the area. Some hint of weak upper
level disturbances crossing the area in southwest flow aloft. Kept
a chance for showers Monday through Tuesday.
The chance for showers continue Wednesday in advance of a cold
front. GFS is substantially faster with the cold front pushing
through the forecast area Wednesday afternoon while the ECMWF moves
the front through Wednesday night. So have continued with slight
chance to chance pops due to low confidence in model solutions.
Dry high pressure to build across the region Thursday and Friday.
Well above normal temperatures Monday through Wednesday cool to the
60s for the end of next week once the cold front passes.
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows a fair weather
cumulus field across the region with bases around 4kft. Expect
an increase in moisture and clouds late tonight as a cold front
approaches from the west. Any rain will be light and is
expected to stay mainly north and west of the terminals. Models
indicate potential for fog and stratus, but believe mixing and
cloud cover will limit fog potential. However, do believe that
stratus may develop early Saturday due to increased low level
moisture. Model guidance is also indicating potential for
stratus, so have added scattered ceilings at 2.5kft for now,
but will update as confidence increases. Winds will pick up on
Saturday to around 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots as the
front moves through the area. Winds will veer from southerly to
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Unsettled weather is expected Monday
through Wednesday with associated flight restrictions possible.