Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 300853
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
453 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DIURNAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US TODAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
AOA 1.6 INCHES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALSO CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. AS SUCH EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVEL AND WET BULB HEIGHTS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY A
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EXPECT A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STRUNG
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
EXPECT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A 20-KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND LIMITED MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY AFTER 21Z
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...04Z. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS AFTER 18Z EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BY 15Z TUESDAY AT AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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