Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 190527
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
127 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather will continue through at least Saturday, with a
warming trend. A cold front will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly Monday and Monday night, followed by much
cooler temperatures for mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
It will remain dry over the forecast area with the surface
ridge extending from off the Mid Atlantic Coast southwestward
through the Carolinas and Georgia. Strong net radiational
cooling conditions will occur tonight. Much of the GFS, ECMWF,
and NAM MOS and in-house radiation scheme support lows in the
lower and middle 40s. Some of the COOP MOS has lows in the
middle and upper 30s at the normally colder locations. Patchy
frost may occur at the colder locations. We do not believe frost
will be widespread enough for a frost advisory, and given very
localized nature, have removed mention from the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fair and dry. Strong upper ridge will build over the SE CONUS,
while surface high pressure remains centered over the central
and southern Appalachians Thursday, shifting slightly east into
the Mid Atlantic Friday. The atmosphere will remain dry with
precipitable water values progged 0.5 inches or less. A gradual
warming trend will commence through the period as the air mass
modifies and the upper ridge builds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong upper ridge will remain over the SE CONUS Saturday, with
surface high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic coast,
providing warm and dry conditions. The upper and surface ridges
will shift to our east offshore by late Sunday ahead of an
approaching upper trough and surface front. Models indicating
return flow and some moisture return off the Atlantic could
begin as early as Sunday afternoon/evening. Latest model runs
generally bring the front through our region in the Monday to
Monday night time frame, perhaps into early Tuesday. A little
too early to speculate on severe potential, but will accept
model consensus POPs in the good chance to likely range and will
include mention of chance thunder. Both GFS and EC indicate a
significantly deepening upper trough over the E CONUS behind
this system, with indications of much cooler air coming in mid
to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

Surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will
continue to ridge into the Carolinas overnight and Thursday.
Sky mainly clear. Winds will remain light from the northeast
less than 5 knots. Fog is not expected due to the dry air mass,
however the warm river water near AGS could be enough to
support patchy reduced vsbys at times but not including in the
forecast.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
are expected except an increase in low-level moisture in an
onshore flow may lead to widespread stratus and fog Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99


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