Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 161509
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1009 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area through tonight and then
shift off the Southeast Coast Sunday. There will be increased
moisture in the southerly flow on the backside of the offshore
high Monday. Additional rain chances throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridge will build over the SE CONUS, with surface high pressure
over our region. A dry atmosphere in place will ensure fair weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Sunday, the center of the surface high will be moving east
of the cwa. On the backside of the high, a return to a warmer
southerly flow will begin setting up, bringing Gulf moisture
towards the region. This should cause an increase in clouds
through the day. Deeper moisture should remain southwest of the
cwa through the day, and because of this, expect the forecast to
be dry through much of Sunday. Warm advection pattern will help
to begin moderating temperatures through the afternoon, with
highs in the 60s.

For Sunday night, Moisture continues to increase, and models
bring a slight chance of some light rainfall into the area late
in the night. Will start off with an increase to slight chance
for rainfall early Sunday evening, then increase to chance PoPs
later in the night. Expect milder temperatures because of the
southerly flow and increased cloud cover, with lows in the mid
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain potential will continue on Monday, although some
uncertainty exists in regards to coverage and intensity.
Bigger changes were made to the forecast for the middle of the
week. All the longer range models coming into better agreement
with an area of low pressure moving towards the region from the
northern Gulf, passing through the area into Thursday. This has
required an increase in the pops for the middle of the week.
This system should be moving east of the cwa by
Thursday/Thursday night, but models indicating yet another
northern Gulf system possible by Friday, which would bring
additional rain to the region. Temperatures generally appear to
remain above normal through the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. Dry high pressure building into the region.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Precipitation and associated
restrictions possible at times late Sunday night through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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