Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 011817
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
217 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will be just off the southeast coast through
Tuesday. A pressure ridge will move eastward and extend along the
appalachians Tuesday. Later in the week Hurricane Matthew is
forecast to be off the southeast coast. Please see the latest
advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite showing cloudiness mainly off the coast along stalled
frontal boundary. lAir mass will be dry across the region
tonight. light and variable winds after midnight. Satellite and
models suggest some high clouds may advect into the area from the
west late tonight but expect mainly strong radiational cooling
conditions....so forecast minimum temperatures below mos
guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low over the Great Lakes moving east to New England
during the period. Trough along the Carolina coast with Atlantic
ridge to the east. The GFS and ECMWF maintain a dry air mass
across the area through the period with surface ridge extending
south from the Mid Atlantic and Northeastern States. Nam
indicating a few showers in the east Sunday/Sunday night.
Discounted this with no support from SREF. The pressure gradient
will remain weak and wind should be light. The recent bias favors
the higher maximum temperature guidance. Followed the consensus
for the low temperature forecast as air mass moderates.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF show high pressure ridging into the forecast area
from the north with a stationary front lingering off the southeast
coast early in the medium-range period. The models depict deep
moisture remaining east of the forecast area through at least
Wednesday. Hurricane Matthew forecast to be near the Bahamas Thursday.
The model track consensus suggests the storm will remain east of
the South Carolina coast. The GFS remains on the west side of the
guidance with the ECMWF to the east. Models also indicate
potential strengthening off the Southeast coast in the Gulf
Stream. Even with the storm passing offshore some effects are
possible for the region from the storm but confidence remains low
on detail. Will continue the slight chance pops especially east
late in the period. Gusty winds may develop late Wednesday through
Friday or Saturday. Please see the latest advisory on Matthew from
the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cool and dry airmass will remain across the region through
the period. although the mos suggest some fog possible late
tonight AGS/OGB terminals moisture should be shallow. Generally
clear skies through the period for much of the period with VFR
conditions. Light and variable winds.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected at
this time.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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