Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 310151
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
951 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Remains of Bonnie currently along the central SC coast will move
very slowly to the northeast over the next couple of days. This
will keep plenty of moisture across the area along with chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Showers
and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast late in the week and
through the weekend as a frontal boundary stalls over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Remains of Bonnie currently located along the north coast of SC
moving very slowly to the northeast. Latest composite radar
indicating scattered showers mainly over portions of the
Lowcountry. Latest SPC HRRR continues to show little convection
during the overnight period so have lowered pops into the low
chance category primarily from CAE eastward. The remains of
Bonnie will move very slowly so expect clouds to linger especially
over the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee. Lows tonight will be in the
middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models depict a lingering surface trough near the forecast
area in the wake of low pressure moving northeastward slowly. Weak
upper troughing is also indicated. However, the models display
deepest moisture northeast of the forecast area. The pattern
supports scattered showers and thunderstorms especially during the
times of maximum heating. Followed the guidance consensus for the
pop forecast. Also used the consensus for the temperature
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The medium-range models display surface troughing remaining through
much of the period. The models show the upper pattern mainly flat.
The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 30 to 40 percent through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The remains of Bonnie will move slowly northeast during the taf
period. Clouds will linger overnight with light and variable winds.
High levels of low level moisture presents the potential for
restrictions overnight. The absence of a strong inversion may
favor CIG restrictions across the Midlands. However cloud cover
should be more scattered at AGS/DNL raising the fog potential.
MVFR CIGS at CAE/CUB and OGB are expected early Tuesday morning,
potentially dropping into IFR.

Tuesday, with the deeper moisture moving to the northeast there
will be a chance of scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms,
mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. Confidence is
too low to include in TAFs. North winds around 5 kts will continue
into the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning restrictions
possible each morning. Low confidence in restrictions in afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through Thursday...with
increasing chances Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.