Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 032343
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
543 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR will be the most likely flying categories at all area
airports for the next 24 hours. There may be brief improvement,
but it is not likely to last for any extended period. There will
also likely be off and on rain in Austin and San Antonio overnight
and into the afternoon Sunday. It shouldn`t have much effect on
category. At DRT rain will begin overnight and continue through
the day Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Widespread light to moderate rain showers along with a few
thunderstorms continue across most of south central texas this
afternoon. Radar trends do show a slight decrease in this activity
across the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. We do
expect a slight decrease in rainfall this afternoon and evening,
with mainly light rain expected. However, another round of
moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected beginning late this
evening into early Sunday morning as the upper low over the
central Baja peninsula nudges eastward. As deep layer forcing for
ascent spreads into the region, we expect an increase in coverage
of showers and thunderstorms. A brief lull in the activity is
expected Sunday afternoon before another round of lift moves
through with the main upper low. This should bring another round
of moderate to locally heavy rainfall to the region beginning
Sunday evening and continuing into early Monday morning. Given
saturated soils across the central portion of our area and
expected periods of heavy rainfall through Monday morning, we have
issued a Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas.
The watch extends as far west as Bandera and Medina counties
eastward through the San Antonio metro area into the Highway 77
corridor. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches are possible in the watch area from late
tonight into early Monday morning. The main upper low will move
east of the region on Monday and we will see a quick end to the
precipitation from southwest to northeast by early evening.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...
Westerly flow aloft behind the departing upper low along with
sunny skies and northwesterly downslope winds will allow a brief
warming and drying trend to take place on Tuesday. On Wednesday,
we should see enough moisture return to warrant a slight chance
for showers generally along and east of I-35. A weak cold front
along with an increase in cloud cover will also work to knock
temperatures back closer to climatological normals. A much
stronger cold front will move through Wednesday night bringing
gusty north winds and much cooler air to the region. Daytime highs
on Thursday and Friday will likely remain in the 40s to near 50
for most areas. We also expect good potential for a widespread
freeze Thursday night and Friday night across a good portion of
south central Texas. High temperatures are expected to remain
below normal on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              48  54  47  58  46 /  90  80  90  60  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  48  53  47  58  44 /  90  80  90  60  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     49  53  48  60  45 /  80  90  90  50  -
Burnet Muni Airport            46  51  44  54  43 /  80  70  90  70  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           51  53  47  62  44 /  80  80  80  30   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        47  52  46  55  44 /  90  80  90  70  -
Hondo Muni Airport             50  55  47  62  43 /  80  90  90  30  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        48  54  48  59  45 /  90  90  90  50  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   49  54  49  58  46 /  90  90  90  50  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       50  54  49  60  47 /  80  90  90  40  -
Stinson Muni Airport           51  55  49  61  46 /  80  90  90  40  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CST this evening through late Sunday
night for the following counties: Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...
Caldwell...Comal...Fayette...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Lavaca...Lee...
Medina...Wilson.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams


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