Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 281123
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  56  84  62  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  52  82  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  52  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  55  82  60  76 /   0   0   0  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  55  88  61  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  81  61  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  51  85  60  82 /   0   0   0   0  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  52  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  56  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  54  82  61  80 /   0   0   0  -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  53  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17


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