Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 200444
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS LATE COMING IN TONIGHT SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
NEW DATA TO LOOK AT...SO AS A RESULT ONLY TWEAKED THE ONGOING SET OF
TAFS WITH DELAYING THE ONSET OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS CLOSER TO DAWN.
NO MENTION OF POP IN THE FORECAST AS CHANCES REMAIN TO LOW. SKIES
SHOULD GO VFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A MOIST AXIS REMAINS
OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT. WE/LL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24





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