Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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281
FXUS64 KEWX 221149 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
549 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

A small area of MVFR ceilings are ongoing over KAUS and portions of
the coastal plains this morning. Expect MVFR to persist at KAUS next
2-3 hours and this ceiling may slide near KSAT/KSSF through 14Z. Have
placed a TEMPO MVFR BKN030 deck at KSAT/KSSF through 14Z for this
possibility. Will monitor closely if TEMPO needs to be dropped based
on satellite trends. Expect VFR 14-15Z onward through the rest of
the period. Surface winds remain elevated this morning near 13-18
knots with gusts to near 25 knots from the north. These windy
conditions will persist through the morning but slowly decrease
through the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Less than 5
knots of wind is expected 24 hours from now Thanksgiving morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A much cooler day will be in store today as the region continues to
feel the effects of yesterday`s cold front passage. Highs are
expected to only reach into the 60s, and maybe not even that for the
northernmost areas of the CWA including Georgetown and the Hill
Country. The front also effectively cleansed the region of any
meaningful moisture and other than some low level morning clouds
along the Coastal Plain, should see plenty of sun.

Winds will be the most notable feature today, mostly in the morning
hours as the pressure gradient is still rather compressed. All
indications (models) agree that this will begin to relax around 18Z
today and thus a steady decline of wind speeds will occur through the
afternoon hours. By this evening, mainly light north winds will
remain as a surface high positions itself across central and north-
central Texas. Also as a result, a very good radiational cooling set
up will be in store overnight tonight allowing temperatures to
efficiently drop into the 30s across the CWA, with some locations
seeing at or below freezing, mainly in the low lying areas of the
Hill Country.

Among the things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving, one is
certainly the forecast. With building heights and high pressure
continued at the surface, a chilly morning will quickly improve to
highs in the low to mid 70s with light wind and clear skies. So for
those looking to work off the turkey dinner smorgasbord with a walk
around the neighborhood, throwing the football around, or even taking
a nap outside, the conditions will be ideal for such occasions.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
A rather benign long term forecast looks to be in store through
weekend and into the early part of next week. The pleasant conditions
continue with dry air, clear skies and mild temperatures. A weak
frontal passage should approach Sunday but likely wont impact
temperatures considerably. The next significant front looks to be on
approach come Tuesday night into Wednesday, which may or may not also
have some showers associated with it. Model discrepancies so exist
with the H5 orientation, evolution, and strength in the
ECMWF/GFS/Canadian so have only included 20 PoP for day 7 for the
time being. But due to a rather dry air mass in place by the time the
front arrives, am not too excited for rainfall potential just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              62  38  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  61  36  70  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  36  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            59  35  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  39  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        59  36  70  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  34  73  42  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  35  70  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   62  35  66  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  39  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           66  39  72  44  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...TB3



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