Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250426
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1026 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue overnight and into tomorrow. Winds
will decrease further overnight and turn southwesterly. Tomorrow
afternoon southwest winds will increase between 15 and 20 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
After the short wave trough currently affecting the region moves
east tonight, another will be hot on its heels for Sunday afternoon.
However, winds will not be quite as strong as observed this
afternoon. Wind speeds aloft will generally be weaker with not as
much subsidence as well. Dry air will still be in place with no
where to go. A low level thermal ridge will intersect the strongest
500mb winds north of the FA in the central Panhandle.

Short wave ridging will move overhead on Monday before upper flow
backs in response to a deepening system over California early next
week. We will finally see dry air depart the region beginning on
Tuesday morning as low level moisture is drawn northwestward in
advance of this system progressing across the desert southwest.
However, dry afternoons will persist at least on the caprock with
continued lee surface troughing/cyclogenesis. This will lead to at
least an elevated fire weather threat each afternoon. There was
previously a large amount of spread in model guidance regarding the
ejection of this system. The 12Z ECMWF has come more in line to the
more progressive GFS but still slower which is more similar to the
GFS ensemble solutions. In the most likely scenario, we would be
skunked on the precipitation yet again with the exception of possibly
the southern Rolling Plains on Wednesday. Furthermore, the track of
this system currently brings a very strong height gradient over the
area on Wednesday afternoon. Current MOS numbers show the corridor
or strongest winds between LBB and MAF into high wind criteria. A
cold front will likely follow either late Wednesday or early
Thursday. Regardless of when the trough passes, short wave ridging
will follow with continued dry weather for the second half of next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions will continue for several more hours generally
along and north of TX Highway 114 and west of the edge of the
caprock. Winds will quickly decrease near sunset. Several more days
of elevated fire weather can be expected Sunday through Tuesday
afternoons. Temperatures will continue the warming trend along with
very dry air remaining in place through the first half of next
week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99



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