Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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