Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 111021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
421 AM CST Sun Dec 11 2016

Low stratus off the caprock early this morning will make a quick
exit to the east as stronger westerlies continue to spread across
the region. However, extensive high level cloud cover will increase
in coverage over the region. These high clouds will likely dampen
atmospheric mixing this afternoon as well as some surface heating. A
strong pressure gradient will make up for a lack of deep mixing
leading to strong westerly surface winds today. Also, despite the
cloud cover limiting full sun, very strong downsloping winds will
help boost temperatures well above seasonal averages ahead of a cold
frontal passage this evening. The cold front will back door into the
region beginning this afternoon then push through this evening but
winds will be light out of the northeast behind the front.

Slightly cyclonically curved yet still nearly zonal flow will
dominate this week with a long wave upper trough over the upper
midwest and Great Lakes. A polar low is still expected to dip
south and then southeast around Hudson Bay sending very cold air
into the north central U.S. A very modified push of this cold air
is forecast into the southern high plains Wednesday and Thursday.
A weaker front also will move southward Tuesday, mainly impacting
northern and eastern zones, but will feature recycled more than
fresh Canadian Polar air.

All-in-all, a mild and dry pattern will dominate until that
stronger front Wednesday. We have increased winds on the Caprock
Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and we have maintained notable
west (warmer) to east (cooler) thermal gradients every day.
Wednesday night and Thursday appears the most likely day for
considerable stratus, though can`t rule out smaller, briefer
patches most nights.

On the horizon, Pacific wave energy is expected to carve out an
upper trough over the intermountain west by late this week lasting
into early next week. Friday has trended windier and warmer
following the mid-week cold front. Latest trends indicate wave
activity crossing the Rockies Saturday more open and north than
previously, so we have backed off a bit on low snow chance
coverage Saturday. Solutions have trended more, however, towards
some kind of low latitude waviness approaching from Mexico and the
southwestern U.S. early next week, still beyond this forecast.




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