Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 290516
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1216 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1210 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CRESTING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS INLAND IS PRODUCING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN
COLD TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ARE ALREADY IN THE 20S AND COULD SEE READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. ALONG THE COAST A
STIFF NORTH BREEZE CONTINUES TO BLOW BUT THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH LATE THUS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING THERE LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WAA WILL DEVELOP OVER AREA AS SFC HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONT APPROACHES FROM W. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH INSOLATION
EXPECTED...COMBINED WITH LOW LVL THICKNESS INCREASES...TO RAISE
TEMPS TO NEAR 50 SRN INLAND SECTIONS WITH MID 40S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM WED...FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH E NC THUR
NIGHT. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE... A
PERIOD OF DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF QPF FALLING THROUGH FRI
MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AND ANY PRECIP WILL BE ALL LIQUID WITH
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPR 30S THUR NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI WITH CAA BRINGING
CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S COMBINED WITH
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE 30S DURING
THE DAY EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRI NIGHT
THOUGH LOWS WELL DOWN IN THE 20S WITH A LINGERING BREEZE WILL FEEL
LIKE THE TEENS.

COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ON SAT WITH THICKNESSES ON PAR WITH ECMENS
MEAN SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S...WITH SOME
30S ON THE OBX. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER SO APPARENT T`S WILL IMPROVE.
SAT NIGHT WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPS DESPITE MAINLY CALM WINDS. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INC AS WAA ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S MAY BE REALIZED PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT BEFORE A RISING TEMP TREND ENSUES.

DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL SUITE COMES INTO PLAY ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A BROAD SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LARGE SPREAD AMONGST
GFS ENSEMBLES WITH PLACEMENT OF WEAK LOW PRES...AND LARGE SPREAD IN
ECM ENS MEMBERS INDICATIVE OF NON CONSISTENCY WITHIN MODEL SCHEME
AND BETWEEN MODELS THEMSELVES. DESPITE THE INCONSISTENCIES...IT DOES
APPEAR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH THE SYSTEM DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. GFS
MOS TEMPS SUN AFTERNOON APPEAR TOO HIGH AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50 DEGREE
RANGE...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMENS MEAN TEMPS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO
APPEARS TO BE ALL LIQUID AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING TOO WARM FOR FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP.

SYSTEM EXITS ON MONDAY WITH REINFORCING COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD.
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE CHILLY TREND WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONE MINOR EXCEPTION. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
EXCEPTION IS A RISK FOR STEAM FOG AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT KPGV
AND POSSIBLY KEWN. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD AT KPGV IS CURRENTLY
ZERO WITH A TEMP OF 27 WITH A AIR/WATER TEMP DIFFERENTIAL OF 26
DEGREES F WHICH IS WHEN THIS TYPE OF FOG USUALLY DEVELOPS. AT KEWN
THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DIFFERENTIAL WAS STILL LARGE /8 DEGREES F/ SO FOG
POTENTIAL THERE LOOKING REMOTE. THURSDAY EXPECTING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
SW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM WED...A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THUR NIGHT. A STRAY SHOWER MAY FALL BUT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR AS ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MAINLY SUNNY BUT WINDY ON FRI AS WIND GUSTS BUILD TO 20 TO 30 KT
FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES SUN NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM THURSDAY...THE SCA CONTINUES FOR SEAS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE INLET. SEAS REMAIN 5-8 FT AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE IN DIMINISHING NW WIND FLOW AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES NEAR THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE WATERS LATE. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THU
MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE DURING AFTN...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VRBL
WINDS BECOMING SW 10-15 KT LATE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM WED...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH
THE WATERS. FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE THUR NIGHT WITH GUSTY
SW WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT AND LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS
TURN NW AND INC FRI...AND COULD REACH GALE FORCE FRI EVENING AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. BEST CHANCES FOR GALES WILL
BE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THOUGH MAY COME CLOSE OR REACH
GALES FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SAT AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHERLY. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE EARLY
SAT MORNING BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 6 FT SOMETIME LATE SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TURN TO THE SW ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM SET TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEITHER WW3 NOR NWPS PICKING UP ON 11-13 SECOND PERIOD SWELL
OBSERVED ALONG OBX TODAY...THUS RELIED ON PERSISTENCE FCST FOR THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEAS OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS OF 8-12 FOOT SURF TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT...WITH MINOR OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC/JME
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JBM/BTC/JME/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JBM






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