Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 300534
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
134 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SE NEW ENG HAS WEDGED IN OVER INLAND
AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE PEAKING OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP GIVEN
THE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDITIONS GIVEN PATCHY CLOUD COVER AND VERY
LIGHT BNDRY LAYER MIXING.

WILL RETAIN VERY LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS AS A
WEAK INVERTED TROF OFFSHORE DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST, BUT THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS REACHING THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE APPEAR
TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

LOWS WITH UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S MOST SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POP BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BRING WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH BUILDS INLAND. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE A TYPICAL
SUMMER...HOT AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MON THROUGH WED
WILL BE A BETTER DAY WITH CONVECTION AS A BROAD TROF WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH AND FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 30/40 POPS
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE AREA...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY...AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT IT. EXPECT...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO BACK OFF A BIT ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR A COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SET UP WITH HIGH SFC DEW POINTS,
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DOES
FORM WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR THEN EXPECTED
FROM MID MORN ON INTO THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION TODAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...INCREASING THE
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
WITH HVY RAINFALL. FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AT SITES WHERE PRECIP HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST TO THE S AND WILL STALL
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED ENE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS S AND 10 TO 15 KTS CNTRL
AND N. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL WTRS.

PREV DISC...THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY. 10 TO 15 KT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

2 TO 4 FT SEAS LATE TODAY WILL BECOME 2 TO 3 FT LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL S/SW 5 TO 15 KTS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...BTC/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM





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