Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 260438
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1238 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016
High pressure will extend over the area from the north and
northeast through early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1235 AM Friday...High pressure surface and aloft continues
over the area tonight producing clear skies and light winds
which will be decoupling late leading to shallow/patchy fog inland.
Lows temperatures will range from the upper 60s inland to low/mid
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Dry weather will continue Friday with the
strong upper ridge centered across western portions of the
Carolinas and the ridge axis offshore extending SW across the
region. Skies should again remain partly sunny with stratocumulus
deck developing in the afternoon. Low level thicknesses again
build slightly to around 1420-1430 meters yielding max temps in
the low to mid 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 pm Thu...Again today, the models are in good agreement
into this weekend, then differ in their handling potential
tropical development well to the south. An ensemble mean solution
is the favored solution of WPC so will use that for the extended
forecast. Dry weather will continue into Saturday, with an
increasingly unsettled pattern from late weekend into next week.
SW-NE axis of surface/upper ridge will be to the north through the
period, with a predominant deep easterly flow into the area.
Numerous vort centers moving through the flow will bring scattered
convection beginning Sunday. In addition models are depicting the
remnants of a tropical system impacting the forecast area by the
middle of next week. Guidance PoPs are as high as 60% by midweek.
However, with so much uncertainty will go no higher than 50% at
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Friday night/...
As of 1235 AM Friday...Strong and persistent high pressure surface
and aloft will continue across the area through Friday night with
mostly clear skies and light winds. Could see shallow patchy fog
after 8Z tonight as winds decouple with a brief period of MVFR
visibilities possible. Fair weather cumulus are expected to
develop again Friday afternoon in response to diurnal heating with
bases AOA 4K FT. Shallow patchy fog with a brief period of sub VFR
visibilities again will be possible late Friday night.
Long Term /Fri night thru Tue/
As of 2 pm Thu...VFR and dry through Saturday. Deep easterly flow
setting up late weekend into next week will bring scattered
convection Sunday through Tuesday. Winds will be E around 5 knots
Saturday, ENE around 10 knots Sunday and Monday and ESE around 5
Short Term /Tonight and Friday/...
As of 1235 AM Friday...High pressure will continue over the waters
through Friday with light S/SE winds 10 KT or less and seas 2 to 3
Long Term /Fri night thru Tue/ As of 2 pm Thu...Axis of SW-NE
surface/upper ridge will shift a bit north this weekend.
Predominant flow Sunday through Tuesday will be easterly. Pressure
gradient will remain loose, with winds throughout the marine zones
averaging 5-15 knots. Seas on the coastal waters will average 2-4
feet through Sunday. Long period swell of 13-14 seconds forecast
to impact all coastal waters beginning Sunday night. Seas north of
Cape Lookout forecast to build to 3-5 feet, with 2-4 feet
continuing to the south Sunday night through Tuesday.