Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 121900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU. CURRENT TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPR 80S NEAR THEIR FCSTED HIGHS. SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
SE NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT ISOLATED SHOWERS. WILL LEAVE ISO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN
FCST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS WITH LOSS OF
SOLAR.

HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STRATO CU ADVECTING
OFF THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...CALM
WINDS AT THE SFC AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT INLAND. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF GRIDS HOWEVER AS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT DUE TO THE DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...A DRY DAY ON SUNDAY ALBEIT WARMER AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CREEP UPWARDS. SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90
DEGREE RANGE INLAND/80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...AS THE WEEK BEGINS MONDAY...EXPECT A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND A TR0UGH INLAND OVER THE
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OR VERY NEAR EASTERN NC. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE MID- LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO A THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POPS ARE IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY RANGE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A HOT DAY ON
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLE MID 90S
INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DIURNAL
CLOUDS ACROSS REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING SUN MORNING HOURS AS LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AND FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP SLIGHTLY.
BY LATE SUN MORNING...SURFACE LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE SW AT 5-10 KT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE...PROVIDING A DEEP
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH ALSO SOME LOWER VSBYS IN FOG AT
NIGHT...PERHAPS IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SAT...LIGHT EASTERLY TO SE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER FURTHER TO SOUTH THEN SW TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ON SUN...GRADIENT INC SOMEWHAT
WITH S WINDS INC TO 15 KT OR SO...AND SEAS BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4
FT OUTER CENTRAL/NRN WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANTICIPATE 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 5 FEET. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL DID SHOW A FEW SMALL AREAS OF 6
FOOT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS BUT HAVE CAPPED AT
5 FEET FOR NOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAKES A PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH A
BIT ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/ZS
MARINE...CTC/TL






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