Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 012000
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses the region early Thursday morning,
followed by a secondary dry cold front late Friday. High
pressure will then build in behind the front through the
weekend. Another cold front will approach the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Main story today is the very warm temps and
gusty southwest winds. Tight SW pres gradient drawing extremely
warm air and gusting 30-35 kt winds to E NC. This in response to
approaching strong cold front currently located across the Ohio
and TN valley this afternoon. Main story for tonight will be
threat for a strong or severe thunderstorm. Instability
parameters overnight are marginal due to loss of diurnal
heating though shear is quite strong for any updrafts that
develop to tap into the efficient shear to produce mainly a
damaging wind gust or two. Unidirectional shear profiles so
tornado threat is very low to nil. Temps very warm overnight in
the 60s to around 70 until daybreak when the front finally
pushes through the coastal plain where temps will drop into the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Could be some lingering showers across the
southern tier Thur morning as front will be located across the
Crystal Coast early in the day before pushing offshore through
the morning. Conditions will rapidly clear from NW to SE as dry
air pours into the region. TD`s will plummet through the 30s.
Thicknesses on par with MOS guide in forecasting highs in the
60-65 degree range with NW winds 10-15 KT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 PM Wednesday...Dry weather will prevail with high
pressure in control through the weekend into early next week.
Temperatures will be back around normal levels for the season.

Thursday night through Monday...high pressure initially over
Missouri Thursday night will gradually build east with the axis
of the ridge settling along the eastern Carolina coast over the
weekend before moving offshore Monday. A reinforcing cold front
will cross the area Friday afternoon accompanied by gusty NW
winds. Temperatures will return to normal levels for early March
with the coldest night being Saturday morning as the ridge axis
settles near our area pushing lows into the upper 20s inland to
low/mid 30s coast. Inland areas will likely be below freezing
again Sunday morning with coastal areas in the upper 30s to mid
40s.

Monday night through Wednesday...While there are some model
differences in timing of precipitation, the overall pattern
shows high pressure moving offshore with increased S/SW flow
Tuesday into Wednesday. A strong cold front will be approaching
from the west with the GFS showing a strong mid-level shortwave
passing by to the north Tuesday night. Given the uncertainty at
this time frame, will continue chance PoPs Tuesday and Tuesday
night with quick drying behind the front Wednesday which is
depicted by both the GFS and ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short term /through 06Z Thursday/...
As of 1 PM Wed...SCT to BKN 4-5K ft strato cu across E NC with
gusty SW winds around 30KT this afternoon. A strong cold front
approaching from the west will keep gusty SW winds above 20 kt
through late tonight. Ahead of the front showers and some
embedded thunder will move in after around midnight and last
through early Thur morning before conditions improve after
daybreak. Some lowering of cigs back to MVFR along with tempo
reductions in vsby with heavier showers possible late tonight.
Skies clear and winds turn NW on Thur with speeds 10-15 kt with
gusts around 20 kt.

Long term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 2 PM Wednesday...High pressure will gradually build east
from Missouri toward the Carolinas through the weekend. With
very dry air in place with large temperature/dewpoint
spreads...expect predominate VFR conditions to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Wed...SW winds of 20-30 kt with some higher gusts
across the marine domain this afternoon. This in response to
approaching cold front to the west. The gusty winds will inc
somewhat and peak this evening, where gale force winds still
expected south of Oregon Inlet esp over the warmer Gulf Stream
waters. Winds may ocnl gust to gales across E Pamlico sound and
the northern waters though not frequent enough to include gale
headlines. Winds will turn sharply NW behind the front early
Thu morning before diminishing through noon, falling below SCA
by the afternoon hours.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
All Advisories will be down Thursday night with W/NW at 15 knots
or less prevailing. With a secondary cold front crossing the
region Friday afternoon, expect W/NW winds to again increase to
20-25 knots with seas quickly building to 6 to 7 feet late in
the day. Seas finally diminish Saturday night into early Sunday
as axis of high pressure settles along the coast. SW winds
increase again Monday as high pressure moves offshore with
strong cold front approaching from the west.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temps for 03/01 (Today)

Location       Temp/Year
New Bern    81/2012  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  74/1976  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     85/1962  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Kinston        87/1918  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Morehead City  75/1997  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Jacksonville   82/1997  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ130-131-
     135.
     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for
     AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL
CLIMATE...MHX



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