Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 010809
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
409 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AS IT MOVES JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACRS SERN NC. MODELS
CONT TO INDICATE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT SO WILL CONT MENTION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY. SOME BANDED
PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70 TO THE OUTER BANKS
PRODUCING HVY RAFL. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF THROUGH TONIGHT AROUND A
HALF INCH INLAND TO AN INCH ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND NEARLY
1.50 INCHES ALONG THE OBX. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD SATURDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OFF THE NC COAST
BY 00Z THIS EVE DEEPENING QUICKLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NC
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE EASTERN ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES CONT
FOR TYRRELL...CARTERET...MAINLAND AND OUTER BANKS DARE AND HYDE
COUNTIES. THE LOW WILL WELL NE OF NC COAST SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING
WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA SUNDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FROM NW AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW RACES OUT TO NE.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS AREA DURING THE DAY BUT CAA
WILL BE ONGOING WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW AND MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LEADING TO COLD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS LATER TODAY. AREAS
CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO A LIGHT BREEZE RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WITH TOO MUCH MIXING FOR
FROST. HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY MODERATING EACH DAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AROUND THURSDAY BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG TWD MORN
WITH LIGHT WINDS ACRS INLAND AREAS AT ISO AND PGV. RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY WITH LOWERING CLOUD
BASES...BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS. SUB VFR CONDS ALONG WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS CONT TONIGHT THEN IMPROVING CONDS TWD MORNING AS LOW MOVES
AWAYS WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TO NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE N
WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH 4-7 FT SEAS ACRS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND 2-4FT SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE SRN COAST. THE LOW
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR MOST WATERS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FROM OREGON INLET
SOUTH TO OCRACOKE. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS WITH STORM WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH
WIND GUSTS 50-55 KNOTS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DANGEROUS 15-20 FT SEAS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH
EROSION. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OBX FROM HAT
NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...ONGOING GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN
MORNING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW GALES OVER THE SOUNDS
AND SRN WATERS BY SUN AFTN. THE SFC HIGH CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA MON ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO W-SW WITH SPEEDS
DIMINISHING LESS THAN 15 KT INTO WED.

WENT WITH HIGHER NWPS OVER WW3 FOR SEAS WITH COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
MIX WELL OVER WARMER WATERS...RESULTING IN HIGHER GUSTS/SEAS. SEAS
PEAKING 15-20 FT LATE SUN NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIGHTER WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO 1 TO 3 FEET TUE-WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND AS STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HATTERAS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
AT RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING IF STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE PAMLICO
SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NCZ046-047-081-095.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135>137-156-158.
     STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JAC/JME
MARINE...JAC/JME
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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