Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 020451
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1251 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY STALL
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST WEST OF OUR CWA
AND IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. PER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST 3KM
HRRR...WILL DROP POPS OVER OUR COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...UPR LOW WILL APPROACH FROM W WITH SFC FRONT
GRADUALLY SAGGING IN FROM W-NW. SHRT WV ENERGY AND FRONTAL BNDRY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AT VERY LEAST
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO AREA DURING
AFTN...THUS INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER WRN HALF OF AREA IN LINE
WITH MOS BLEND. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER STORMS. LOWERED TEMPS A DEG OR 2 PER MOS GDNC...WITH CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN THREAT EXPECTED TO LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT. HIGHS
MAINLY LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK BEFORE
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THEN A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE MAIN
DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE MODELS IS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE 00Z EURO
PUSHES A FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT CREATES A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
PATTERN. BASED ON MODEL DISCONTINUITY...WILL STICK WITH CLIMO THIS
FAR OUT.

TUES NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
BECOMING STRONG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MAIN
THREAT WITHIN THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THE MOIST AIR AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S...PULSE TYPE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED UNDER SEMI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEER. A MORE DEFINED AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INLAND WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER INLAND
WEDNESDAY AND SIMILARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN MARGINAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR CLIMO
DURING THIS PERIOD (MID-80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE
OBX)...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL RUN JUST UNDER CLIMO...AROUND
80 DEGREES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODELS DIVERGE...BUT WILL LEAN CLOSER TO
CLIMO. AN INTROVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NOSES INTO THE REGION.  MEANWHILE... A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...FORECASTING ANOTHER
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SERIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CONDITIONS SEEM TO IMPROVE MONDAY AS
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NC AND THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WILL KEEP A CHC POP FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE/DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID-80S INLAND TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE OBX. AGAIN...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT STILL HOLDING ON TO SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z
AND 10Z. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AT KISO AND KPGV. WITH ANY SHOWERS...WET GROUND
WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL OVER AREA. MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SCT
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...HAVE INCREASED WINDS A TAD OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS AND SOUNDS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
BEING OBSERVED. SEAS CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4 FEET. EXPECT SW WINDS OF
5 TO 15 KNOTS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...A WEAKENING FRONT MOVING INTO AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN STALLING ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING
WASHED OUT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WE ANTICIPATE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. S FLOW AROUND 10 KT WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY...BECOMING E-SE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE FLOW LIGHTENS SATURDAY WITH S WINDS BECOMING
E BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4
FT HEIGHTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AT TIMES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...CTC/LEP
MARINE...CTC/BM/LEP


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