Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 200818
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
318 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass through the southeast states this
weekend. A cold front will move through Tuesday. High pressure
will pass through from the west during the second half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 3 am Sat...High pressure to the southwest will continue to
expand into the area with a dry airmass and sunny skies. Temps
will be warmer today due to light west southwest winds. Highs
will reach the upper 50s most locations with a few lower 60s
over the southwest counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 am Sat...Clear skies and a light west southwest wind as
high builds in. Lows will be in the mid 30s most places, with
some upper 30s to lower 40s south coast and Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Mild weather is expected through the
extended period. A cold front will bring a threat of showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly in the
morning. Otherwise dry conditions are expected for the extended
period.

Sunday through Monday...High pressure centered over the region
on Sunday will drift offshore Sunday night into Monday as
moisture increases ahead of an oncoming cold front. Mild
temperatures are expected with highs on Sunday in the lower to
mid 60s, then mid to upper 60s for Monday in S/SE flow. The GFS,
which is the fastest of the models with regards to arrival of
precipitation, keeps the area dry on Monday and will continue to
keep precipitation to the west of our CWA Monday afternoon.

Tuesday...There is good consensus between the ECWMF and Canadian
with timing of precipitation through the area Tuesday morning
before exiting the coast during Tuesday afternoon. The
ECMWF/Canadian are also a bit wetter than the GFS, indicating
perhaps up to one-quarter inch of rain with this system. There
is some weak instability indicated during Tuesday with some
decent shear/helicity indicated around midday, so have included
a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Went with the cooler European
and Super Blend guidance indicating highs in the mid 60s, versus
the very warm mid 70s indicated by the GFS MOS. PoPs ramp up
from chance early Tuesday morning to likely through midday then
taper off as precipitation moves offshore Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures return to normal to just
below normal behind the front for mid to late week with highs
generally in the 50s, with upper 40s northern Outer Banks and
nighttime lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Mostly sunny skies
expected for the period, before moisture increases and brings in
another chance of precipitation by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Sunday/...
As of 1 am Sat...VFR/SKC through the short term. Surface ridge
will pass through the southeast states with a very dry airmass,
so no fog is forecast. Light WSW winds less than 10 knots.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 310 am Saturday...VFR conditions are expected Sunday night
into Monday. Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front will
lead to scattered showers, starting late Monday night and
continuing to around midday Tuesday before the precipitation
moves east of the TAF sites. Some embedded thunderstorms are
possible given some weak instability and decent low-level shear.
Some periods of sub-VFR conditions are Monday night and Tuesday
before returning to VFR Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 3 am Sat...West to southwest flow will continue in the
short term as high pressure gradually expands into the area from
the southwest. Pressure gradient gets temporarily pinched today,
with 15-20 knots over the waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke
into this evening, otherwise 10-15 knots elsewhere. Seas will
run 3-5 feet from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout, with 2-4 feet
elsewhere.


Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...Light NW/W winds under strong high
pressure will back to more SE/S on Monday night and increase to
15-20 knots ahead of an oncoming cold front. A short window of
Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely Tuesday ahead of the
cold front as SW winds of 15-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots are
likely with seas building to 4-6 feet, especially south of
Oregon Inlet. By Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the front, N
winds should drop of to 5-15 knots with seas at 2-4 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA


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