Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 232002
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
302 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Developing low pressure will move along the North Carolina coast
tonight. High pressure will build into the region Tuesday into
Wednesday. A cold front with limited moisture will move through
the area Thursday followed by a Northwest flow of seasonably
cold and dry air Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Latest radar indicates showers/possible
thunderstorms rotating around vertically stacked low pressure
moving across NC. Will carry likely PoPs most locations through
the evening then taper them off from SW to NE after midnight. As
the low moves off the mid Atlantic coast early Tuesday wrap
around moisture could affect the NE zones and Outer Banks
Tuesday morning and will include slight chance PoPs. Will also
mention isolated thunder due to cold mid level temps /<-20C @
500 MB/. NW flow is expected to develop over the area after
midnight and circulate cooler air into the region producing lows
in the lower to middle 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Dry High pressure to the south will
build over the region Tuesday and Wednesday. NW flow Tuesday
will lead to cooler highs in the mid to upper 50s. Lows Tuesday
night will again be in the lower 40s inland and mid 40s coast.
On Wednesday the high will move offshore and the flow will come
out of the SW which will lead to much warmer highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s inland and low to mid 60s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 am Mon...Latest run of the GFS and ECMWF in very good
agreement through the long term with an overall dry pattern
along with cooling temperatures. Surface/upper ridge pass mainly
to the south midweek ahead of approaching cold front. The front
will pass through Thursday afternoon. Moisture supply remains
poor according to forecast soundings and with the speed of the
front will be confined mainly to the morning hours so have
adjusted timing accordingly. Made no change to PoPs, keeping at
30%. Large upper trof gradually becomes deeper over the eastern
half of the nation for the remainder of the period. Highs Friday
through Sunday will be in the upper 40s/lower 50s with
overnight lows in the lower/mid 30s with upper 30s/lower 40s
Outer Banks.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tuesday/...
As of 105 PM Monday...VFR conditions currently across the
terminals. Scattered showers are expected to develop and move
up from the S/SW late this afternoon and evening, with best
chances at EWN and OAJ. Expect widespread MVFR ceilings to
develop tonight, between 03-06z. Could see a brief period of
IFR, but think pred MVFR. VFR conditions should return Tuesday
morning, with NW wind gusts 15-20kt in the afternoon.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 am Mon...VFR through the period. Scattered light
showers Thursday morning as a cold front passes through.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tuesday/...
As of 300 PM Monday...S/SW flow 5 to 15 kt late today will
become NW and increase to 15 to 25 KT after midnight and
continue as developing low pressure pulls away from the NC and
high pressure builds in from the south. Seas are currently 5 to
8 ft and may briefly subside further this evening but will build
back up to 7 to 10 ft late tonight and Tuesday.

Long Term /Tue night through Sat/...
As of 300 PM Mon...Models in good agreement through the period.
windy conditions forecast with small craft winds and/or seas on
the coastal waters much of the period. Flow will be northwest
Tuesday into Tuesday night, backing to west then southwest
Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front will pass through Thursday morning, with winds
veering to west during the day and continuing into Friday. On
the area rivers and sounds winds generally 5-15 knots, except on
the Pamlico where winds will reach 15-20 knots Tuesday, and
again behind the front Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Tuesday night for
     AMZ158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/JBM
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME/HSA
AVIATION...CQD/HSA
MARINE...JME/JBM


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