Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 281700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
100 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Atlantic will continue through the
weekend producing record or near record highs over Eastern North
Carolina. A cold front will approach from the west Monday and
cross late Monday night or early Tuesday. High pressure will
build in behind the front Wednesday. A strong low pressure area
may affect the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This Afternoon/...
As of 1 PM Fri...No changes with early afternoon update.

Previous discussion...As of 1035 AM Fri...Fcst on track with no
major changes. Despite very unstable air mass in place,
subsidence in wake of morning weak short wave and building hts
will preclude convection this afternoon. Still cant rule out an
iso sea breeze shower so no higher than a 20 pop in place for
the sea breeze corridor.

Previous discussion...As of 7 am Friday... Latest sfc analysis
show a low pressure system over the Central Canada as a front
push into the Western sections of NC, but will stall and
eventually lift. A weak shortwave associated with this feature
is crossing Eastern NC based on WV. A few showers developed
during the overnight hours, but have been short-lived. Will
continue the mention of isolated showers through mid morning as
Hi-res models continue show activity. WV satellite is showing
subsidence in wake of isolated morning showers will lead to dry
conditions across Eastern NC, but Hi- res models continue to
show the possible showers along sea-breeze. Overall, it will be
mostly dry this afternoon, but an isolated showers can not be
ruled out.

Ridging aloft and high pressure extending from the Western
Atlantic will lead to very warm and humid conditions across E
NC today. Low level thicknesses will range btw 1406-1416 m
supporting high temperatures in the near 90 degrees inland to
low 80s along the coast. These temps will be nearing record
territory for the area (see climate section below).

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 330 am Friday...Quiet weather with SSW flow and partly
cloudy skies expected. Another warm night with lows reaching
only down into the upper 60s/low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Models remain in decent agreement during
period with a upper ridge indicated for weekend, then more
progressive flow leading to more unsettled weather for next
week.

Saturday through Sunday night...Ridging surface and aloft will
result in a warm and dry period with temps 10-15 degrees above
normal. Models continue to indicate mainly dry weather this
period.  Lows each night in upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs
Saturday in lower 90s inland with around 80 beaches, then a
couple degrees cooler Sunday.

Mon through Thu...A cold front will approach from the W late Mon
and slowly cross the region Mon night and early Tue. Will
remain warm Mon with a low chc of some convection espcly inland
during the aftn as the front approaches. Models continue to
indicate a decent coverage of precipitation Mon night/early Tue
with the front sliding offshore late Tue with lingering shra
ending from W to E in the morning. Will continue likely POPs for
Monday night. Highs Mon will again climb well into the 80s then
cool into the 70s Tue behind the front. High pressure is
forecast to build into the area Wed with dry weather and temps
moderating into the low 80s inland. The weather for late next
week will feature a strong upper low and complex surface low
pressure which will push a couple of fronts through the
area with the potential for significant precipitation late week
and much cooler temperatures next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 1 pm Friday...BKN/SCT Low stratus clouds are expected to
redevelop again late tonight...leading to SCT/BKN IFR cigs
mainly after midnight. Winds of 5-10 kt will prevent fog
development. The low cigs will become clear by mid/late morning.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...VFR expected to prevail through Monday
morning with enough nocturnal mixing to preclude fog
development. A cold front will be moving across the area Mon
night into early Tue with better coverage of shra and storms
with periods of sub VFR conditions possible. High pressure
builds in behind the front late Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As 7 am Friday...Latest buoy observations are showing SW 5-15
knots and 3 to 6 ft with the highest seas over the central
waters. Expect S to SW winds 10-20 knots with seas 3 to 6 ft
with the highest over the central waters...where Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect today.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Moderate SW flow of 10 to 20 kts expected
thru Sunday around offshore high pressure. Approaching cold
front will increase the SW winds late to 20-25 Kt Sunday night
through early Tuesday. Winds are forecast to become west around
15 Kt behind front Tuesday.

Some are forecast to be 3-5 ft through Sunday evening. Sea heights
will build again late Sunday night through Tue peaking at 6-10
ft Mon/Mon night, then slowly subsiding late Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 7 AM Friday...The Tar River in Greenville and Neuse River
in Kinston is expected to reach moderated flooding, while
Contentnea Creek in Hookerton is already in major flooding this
morning. The NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin forecast remains in
minor flooding. The Roanoke River is forecast to rise over the
next several days due to increased flow out of Kerr Dam but is
expected to remain just below flood stage. A river flood warning
has also been issued for areas upstream of Trenton along the
Trent River as gauge is about to reach the 14 foot flood stage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are possible through Sunday as an extremely warm air
mass settles over Eastern NC.


RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/28
---------------------------
LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    92/1957  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  82/1994  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     94/1981  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  83/1985  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        95/1990  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   89/1985  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/29
---------------------------
LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    90/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  84/1994  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     91/1981  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  86/2002  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        96/1914  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   89/1974  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 04/30
---------------------------
LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    91/1974  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  84/1974  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     92/1957  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  86/1957  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        94/1906  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   90/1987  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...JME/JBM
AVIATION...JME/TL/BM
MARINE...JME/BM
HYDROLOGY...MHX
CLIMATE...MHX



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