Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 050741
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
241 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will move along the southeast coast this
morning, then push offshore late today and tonight as high
pressure builds in from the northwest. Low pressure will develop
and move across the area Tuesday and move offshore Tuesday night.
A strong cold front will move through late Thursday...followed by
cold high pressure Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Mon...Latest analysis shows warm front along the NC
coast this morning...with weak areas of low pressure moving along
it. Latest radar imagery shows widespread light to moderate rain
across the area. Rain will taper off from west to east this
morning. NSSL WRF and HRRR show precip offshore by 14z. Surface
low will move along the SE coast this morning then push off the
VA/NC coast this afternoon, as high pressure builds in from the
W/NW. Low level winds becoming N/NW late this morning and
afternoon as low and front push offshore. Cloudy early, then could
see some clearing esp across the northern tier this afternoon. Low
level thickness values support highs in the upper 50s to low 60s
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Mon...High pressure to the north will shift NE
overnight as another surface low over the Gulf of Mexico
strengthens and lifts NE into the TN valley region. Dry wx
continues early this evening, then widespread precip is expected
to overspread the area...mainly after 06z. Will continue sc pop
early becoming likely/categorical late. Could see a non-diurnal
temp curve overnight ahead of the clouds and precip. Lows
generally 45-50 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Mon...Widespread rain Tuesday as low pressure
crosses. A strong cold front will cross late Thu with cold temps
Fri through the weekend.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...As a weakening southern stream short
wave approaches Tue low pres will develop to the SW and track NE
near or across the region. Good lift and plenty of moisture will
lead to widespread rain Tue especially thru mid day with moderate
to heavy rain at times leading to 1/2 to 1 inch of rainfall. At
this time appears instab will remain mainly well off the coast so
will not add any thunder but will have to monitor as will be
close to the beaches. Decent temp grdnt expected Tue with highs
mid 50s inland with mainly NE flow to mid 60s central/srn beaches
with SE to S flow.

As the low begins to pass offshore later Tue into Tue
evening drier air will work in from the W with rain ending from W
to E. Caa will develop leading to lows in the lower 40s inland to
lower 50s beaches.

Wed and Wed Night...Dry with seasonal temps as weak high pres quickly
crosses. Highs Wed upr 50s to around 60 with lows Wed night lower
40s inland to upr 40s/around 50 OBX.

Thu through Sunday...Cold front with limited moisture will cross
late Thu/Thu evening cont slight chc to low chc of shra with
front. High temps ahead of front Thu will be in the upr 50s to
lower 60s. Main story will be cold air assoc with strong high pres
building in behind front Fri thru Sat...highs both days mainly
low to mid 40s with lows Fri night and Sat night reaching couple
dgrs either side of 25 inland to lower/mid 30s beaches. As the
high begins to slide E on Sunday temps and moisture will increase
with high around 50 inland to near 60 coast. Slight chc of shra
poss mainly coast as moisture increases.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 230 AM Mon...High confidence in widespread IFR/LIFR conditions
through 12z. Widespread light to moderate rain will continue
through this morning, then quickly taper off from west to east
between 13-15z. IFR/LIFR stratus this morning, and expect gradual
improvement late morning, becoming VFR by this afternoon.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate again overnight into
Tuesday morning, with sub-VFR ceilings and widespread rain re-
developing.

Long Term /Tue through Friday/...
As of 215 AM Mon...Sub VFR cigs and vsbys expected much of Tue
with widespread rain as low pres crosses the region. Rain will end
as the low departs offshore Tue night however fcst soundings
indicate low lvls will remain saturated with IFR cigs much of the
night. High pres builds in Wed and slides offshore Wed night with
dry weather and VFR expected once low clouds lift early Wed. A
strong cold front with limited moisture will cross late Thu or Thu
evening and dont think will be much precip with cont VFR. Cold
high pres will build in thru Fri with clearing skies and gusty NW
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Latest obs show E/SE winds 10-15 kt and seas
2-4 feet north of Hatteras and S/SE 15-25 kt with seas 4-6 feet
south. SCA continues for the waters today, and adjusted the timing
slightly based on the latest obs. Warm front lingers along the NC
coast this morning, with weak lows moving along it. The low and
front will move offshore late this morning and afternoon, with
high pressure building in from the WNW. Winds will be shifting,
becoming N/NW 10-20 kt this afternoon. Seas will build to 4-7
feet, tapering off from south to north this afternoon and tonight.
Winds become NE 10-20 kt overnight with seas subsiding to 3-5
feet.

Long Term /Tue through Friday/...
As of 215 AM Mon...Developing low pres will lift NE near the
region Tue. Always tough to get wind dir/speed correct with low
tracking nearly overhead but mdls fairly similar in showing
moderate ENE winds early Tue with period of strong SE to S winds
later Tue with SCA a good bet much of the area. As the low departs
to the NE Tue night into Wed will have a period of gusty NW winds
keeping seas elevated...espcly outer central and northern waters.
High pres builds in Wed and moves offshore early Thu with light
winds and seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet by first part of Thu.
Gusty W winds develop later Thu ahead of cold front then become
NW and remain gusty later Thu night and Fri behind the front with
strong CAA. SCA a good bet most waters later Thu night into Fri.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
     afternoon for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/RF
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD


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