Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 231432
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1032 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOIST FLOW SURGING UP THE SE COAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR
SC/GA BORDER LATE THIS MORNING. STILL QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS
PER 12Z MHX RAOB SO WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR STEADIER PRECIP TO
INFILTRATE THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HAVE BACKED OFF
THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER POPS TIL MID AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN (LIKELY) STILL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE ALREADY LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS LATE MORNING AND THE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW
70S COAST EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON UPR LOW CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS N-NE TONIGHT BUT VEERING LOW AND MID LVL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED ISENT LIFT AND THREAT OF PCPN SPREADING INLAND FROM
COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH TSTMS PSBL LATE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG
COAST THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL COAST LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS...COASTAL SECTIONS COULD SEE UP
TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS FROM LOWER 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN UNSETTLED WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ONGOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MAINLY
DRY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SFC A SHARPENING TROUGH OF
LOW PRES WILL FORM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGES DOWN THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
SPUR STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN AND CORRESPONDING UVV BY EARLY WED
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
EAST NC THROUGH THE DAY WED. CONTINUING TO CLOSELY RELY ON ECM SOLN
AS THIS HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND CONTINUES
GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. WEAK SFC LOW PRES MAY FORM ON THE SFC
TROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND NORTHWARD.
MAY BE SOME CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WARM
SECTOR NEARS THE COAST. DECENT LOW LEVEL TURNING MAY OCCUR AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POSSIBLE
ROTATING CELLS IF THEY CAN REALIZE WEAK INSTABILITY. THE MORE
CERTAIN THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
AS FCST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE NEARER THE
COASTAL AREAS AND CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN GRIDS HERE.

WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END WED NIGHT WITH
BROADENING OF SFC AND UPR FEATURES WITH ANY SFC LOW MOVING NORTH OF
THE REGION. FOR THURSDAY...KEPT IN CHANCE POPS WITH AREA STILL UNDER
INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPR LEVEL ENERGY WITH FILLING UPR LOW. HOWEVER
CHANCES OF HEAVIER WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
AND ONLY SCT ACTIVITY AT BEST EXPECTED...WITH DRIER AIR PER WEAK
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED. RETURN TO BROAD RIDGING EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE
CLIMO WITH MAX T`S IN THE LOWER 80S. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD DROP
BACK INTO THE 60S UNDER LIGHT TO CALM WIND CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH
THICKENING HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS. PCPN THREAT...MAINLY
SHOWERS/PATCHY RAIN...WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD N AND W THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT KOAJ AND KEWN...BUT HOLDING OFF INLAND UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
IFR CIGS PSBL AT KOAJ AND KEWN LATE TONIGHT. NE WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT TODAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THUR AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS EXIT THOUGH SCT
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. COULD BE LATE NIGHT FOG OR
STRATUS LATE IN THE WEEK EACH NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OR CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 700 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTED SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND TO BE IN
EFFECT AT PRESENT TIME...WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 25 KT.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS TO N AND LOW PRES OFFSHORE AND TO S PRODUCING GUSTY
NE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER SRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS. LATEST MODELS INDICATE NE WIND 20-25 KT OVER ALL BUT
ALBEMARLE SOUND BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING TONIGHT...THUS ADDED
SCA FOR PAMLICO SOUND STARTING LATE THIS MORNING.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT MAINLY OUTER PORTIONS SRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS TODAY...THEN HIGHER OVER NRN WATERS LATE TONGIHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. THE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY THOUGH HIGH SEAS ABOVE 6 FT EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL END FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS THEN THE
NORTHERN WATERS AS THE SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WINDS LOOK TO BECOME
NORTHERLY AGAIN BY THUR NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS BUT MAY
APPROACH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL






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