Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 300149
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
949 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Bonnie will move very slowly NE along the
South Carolina coast through Tuesday morning. It will weaken
further to a remnant low over SE North Carolina Tuesday while
continuing to move slowly NE, eventually exiting the coast of the
northern Outer Banks Thursday morning. A cold front will move
through Saturday and Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 pm Sunday, deep moist SSE/S flow will continue
overnight. Will maintain likely PoPs near the coast where scattered
heavy showers are impacting the Crystal Coast and the central
Outer Banks. PoPs taper to high chance inland where most of the
additional precipitation may not arrive until morning per high-res
guidance. Given precipitable water values of 1.84 inches, any
showers could produce a quick half-inch to inch of rainfall. No
other major changes to the forecast as lows should drop into the
muggy lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 230 pm Sun...Tonight`s weather carries into Monday. TD
Bonnie will continue creep NE along the South Carolina coast.
Continued likely PoPs throughout in showers and isolated thunder
in tropical airmass. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 pm Sun...Unsettled weather will continue through the
period. The remnants of Bonnie will slowly track along the NC
coast, then lift north of the area Thursday. A frontal system will
approach from the west late week into the weekend.

Monday night through Tuesday night...Remnant of Bonnie will slowly
track along NC coast, with the continued threat of scattered to
numerous showers/isolated tstms. Will continue likely to high
chance pops, with the best chances Monday night and Tuesday. Main
threat will still be locally heavy rainfall with very moist
tropical atmosphere. PWAT values will remain near 2 inches, about
2 SD above normal. Highs in the low/mid 80s and overnight lows in
the upper 60s/70 degrees.

Wednesday through Thursday night...Lingering remnant low will
continue to slowly move along the NC coast, then lift NNE of the
area Thursday. The GFS continues to track it slightly further
inland while the ECMWF tracks it right along the coast. This will
continue the threat of scattered to numerous showers/isolated
thunderstorms. Will continue chance pops through the period with
scattered convection Wednesday then likely becoming more diurnally
driven Thu as low lifts NE of the area. The main threat will
continue to be the threat of locally heavy rainfall with PWAT
values still 1.5-2 inches. Atmosphere finally begins to dry out a
bit Wednesday night and Thursday with PWAT values drop. Highs in
the 80s, with Thu being a bit warmer than Wed with less cloud
cover.

Friday through Sunday...A frontal system will slowly approach from
the west. The front is progged to push through Eastern NC late
Sat and Sat night...though uncertainty remains regarding exact
timing of the frontal passage. Then the GFS keeps the front
stalled along the coast while the ECMWF pushes it further offshore
Sunday. Think convection will be more diurnally driven through the
weekend, though boundary in the vicinity could increase coverage.
Temps near climo or slightly above climo...with highs in the 80s
and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Tuesday/...
As of 705 PM Sunday, difficult aviation forecast continues with
sporadic showers across the region as Tropical Depression Bonnie
slowly works its way up the SC coast this evening. Will forecast
lowering ceilings with periods of MVFR ceilings through much of
the overnight hours. Will bring ceilings back to VFR at 4000 feet
or so by mid-morning Monday with again scattered to numerous
showers through the remainder of the day.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 pm Sun...Unsettled conditions expected through much of the
period as remnant low tracks along the NC coast into Wednesday
night/early Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers/isolated tstms
expected, with best chances Monday night through Wednesday...periods
of Sub- VFR likely. Southerly flow returns Friday with convection
becoming more diurnally driven.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Mon/
As of 950 pm Sunday, Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to
slowly creep off the South Carolina coast and will slowly move up
the coast through the next 24 hours. No big changes to the marine
forecast as Small Craft Advisories continue from Oregon Inlet
south mainly for seas, although some gusts to around 25 knots
being reported at Diamond Buoy with some scattered heavy showers
nearby. Six foot seas also continue well off New River Inlet this
evening. Latest wave model guidance keeps 4-6 foot seas in the
central and southern waters through Monday and Monday night. No
changes to the ending time of current Small Craft Advisories.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 pm Sun...The remnant of Bonnie will slowly track along the
NC coast Monday night through Wednesday, then finally push NNE of
the area Thursday. Some uncertainty remains on exact track of the
low, which could impact wind direction/speeds significantly. The
GFS tracks the low slightly further inland while the ECMWF tracks
it right along the coast. S/SE winds 10-20kt and seas 3-6ft start
off Monday night. The gradient will relax Tuesday with winds less
than 15kt and seas 3-5ft with winds becoming more NW/NE Wed. N/NW
winds early Thu gradually backing becoming SW/WSW behind the
departing low. At this time, after Monday night do not anticipate
any period of SCA conditions through Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 pm Sun...With tropical moisture over the area expect
bouts of shwrs and isolated tstms with locally heavy rain over
the next few days with rainfall amounts generally between 1 to 3
inches. This heavy rain will likely lead to some localized minor
poor drainage flooding and ponding on roads. Widespread or
significant flooding is not expected as ground is not overly wet
and evapotranspiration near max this time of year.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/SGK
MARINE...CTC/CQD/HSA
HYDROLOGY...MHX


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