Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 220742
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
342 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the area through the weekend.
Hurricane Maria is expected to track between the Bahamas and
Bermuda early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 325 AM Friday...
Areas of dense fog will be the main story early this morning. A
clear sky along with calm conditions combined with our rain
from yesterday has helped to produce fog with visibilities as
low as a quarter of a mile in spots. Do not expect improvement
until after 8 AM. After that high pressure over the Ohio Valley
will control our weather today with dry weather expected and
plenty of sunshine. A few of the higher resolution models show
a few very isolated showers near the sounds. While a shower
can`t be ruled out along the sea breeze here, too isolated to
mention in the forecast. Highs again well into the 80s or about
5 to 7 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Another clear sky and calm night expected
with patchy dense fog possible. Lows will drop back into the 60s
away from the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 am Fri...High pressure centered over the Great Lakes
will extend down across the region through the period, while we
continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues
regarding the track of Maria. Eastern NC residents and
interested parties should continue to monitor the latest
official forecasts from NHC.

Friday night through Sunday...Surface high pressure and upper
ridge will continue to build in from the north through the
weekend, as the remnants of Jose meanders off the NE and mid-
Atlantic coast. Pred dry weather expected. Low level thickness
values support above normal temps with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s coastal plain to low
70s Outer Banks.

Sunday night through Thursday...Hurricane Maria is currently
forecast to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week.
Eventual track will be determined by several factors including
the strength of the upper ridge and circulation of Jose. It is
still too soon to determine specific impacts for Eastern NC,
which will be very dependent on the track/how close to the coast
it gets. Regardless of the exact track, rough surf and
dangerous rip currents are likely this weekend into next week,
as large long period southeast swells build. Gusty N/NW winds,
minor coastal flooding, and ocean overwash/erosion will be also
possible. Slight chance/low chance rain showers, mainly along
the coast, possible through Wed. An approaching front will bring
a chance of showers Thursday. Temps through the period, near to
slightly above normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid
60s/low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Saturday/...
As of 140 AM Friday...Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions at all
terminals through 13Z in areas of fog and low clouds. Airport
minimums may be reached between especially by 09Z through 13Z.
Conditions improving to VFR between 13Z and 14Z and then
persisting rest of day with no convective activity expected.
Calm winds expected overnight, then light/variable today.

Long Term /Fri Night through Tue/...
As of 3 am Fri...VFR conditions will dominate most of the
period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region. Sub-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers
Mon and Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Fri/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Occasional waves to 6 feet off Oregon
Inlet so will maintain current small craft advisories today from
Ocracoke Inlet northward with seas building through the day
and winds under 10 kts. By tonight enough swell from Maria will
move into our waters that 6 footers will be possible south of
Ocracoke to Surf City, with a small craft advisory here starting
early tonight. Winds remain light through tonight.

Long Term /Fri Night through Tue/...
As of 3 am Fri...High pressure centered over the Great Lakes
will build down into the region through the period, while we
continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues
regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and
next week, though models continue to slow it down and keep it
slightly further eastward. Mariners and interested parties
should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from
NHC.

N/NE winds 5-15 kt Sat, 10-20 kt Sun then likely increasing to
15-25 kt Mon and Tue as Maria lifts northward. Long period
southeast swell will gradually build through the period, peaking
mid week. Small craft seas forecast through the entire period.
Have capped seas at 14 ft for the central waters mid next week.
Still too soon to determine specific impacts from Maria, but
dangerous seas expected and gusty N/NW winds will be possible.
Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EH
NEAR TERM...EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...EH/HSA
MARINE...EH/HSA



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