Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 242342
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
742 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will sag into the region Tuesday and
Wednesday. The front will lift north of the area late in the
week. Another cold front will stall over the region next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 715 PM Monday... Latest sfc analysis is showing sfc trough
extending southwest from DELMARVA into the Piedmont region of
NC, meanwhile a cold front is extending from western NY into
southern sections of Ohio and Indiana this evening. Have lowered
PoPs across Eastern NC, even though most of the area was
unstable this afternoon, but the seabreeze forcing was not
enough to develop scattered showers/thunderstorms, plus the
increase of clouds may have slowed down the destabilization.
Based on analysis and Hi- Res models have decrease PoPs to 20%
across the area with PoP lowering further over the coastal
plains after midnight. Expect very isolated showers, if any
tonight under partly cloudy.

Overnight lows in the low/mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Monday...

A cold front that is to our north over the Mid Atlantic now will
slowly move into the forecast area Tuesday, increasing chances
for showers and storms. Coverage should be higher than today
with the added lift of the front. Much like the past few days
moderate instability could lead to a few isolated damaging
winds but overall severe threat low with weak mid level shear.
Highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s will lead to heat
indices near 100 again mainly inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM Mon...A cold front will stall over, or just south,
of the region later this week as separate waves of low pressure
ride along it. This will result in a prolonged period of
unsettled weather through early next week.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...A backdoor cold front will
finally slide south of the area Tuesday Night turning winds out
of the east. Mostly dry conditions are expected through
Wednesday afternoon, when some scattered showers or
thunderstorms could develop along the southern coast and coastal
plain. High temps on Wednesday are expected to be in the upper
80s inland, and mid 80s near the coast.

Thursday...Cold front will weaken on Thursday and high pressure
will briefly influence our weather with mostly dry conditions
expected. High temps are expected to be in the upper 80s to low
90s inland and the mid/upper 80s along the coast.

Friday through Monday...A stronger cold front will approach
from the west on Friday and showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the region later in the day. Only have
high chance PoPs in forecast due to some timing differences
between the EURO and GFS. High temps on Friday will reach the
low 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.

Some crucial differences exist between the latest GFS and EURO
Saturday through Monday. The GFS stalls the front over Eastern
NC which enables several low pressure pulses to travel over the
region. Widespread showers and heavy thunderstorms are likely
in this solution, with some flooding possible. The EURO stalls
the front just to the south of the region near Cape Fear, and
has waves of low pressure that ride up/just off the NC coast.
This limits the heavy rain threat to the southern coast with
mostly dry conditions along the northern tier.

So, have gone with likely PoPs over most of the region Saturday
and across the southern tier Sunday morning where the highest
confidence exists for rain. Then have high chance for the rest
of the day Sunday and Monday. High temps for this period will be
a bit cooler, mostly in the upper 80s inland and low 80s near
the coast.

Low temps in the long term will be mostly in the low 70s inland,
with mid to upper 70s expected along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 730 PM Monday...High confidence in VFR conditions will
dominate most of the TAF period. Expecting mostly clear to
to FEW/SCT cirrus clouds to stream across the area, even though
forecast soundings are indicating possible MVFR, even IFR as
moisture is trapped below the inversion layer. Confidence is
still low and therefore left it out of the TAFS. Clouds will
increase tomorrow ahead of the approaching cold front. Expect
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon. Expect
southwest winds around 5 knots through most of the period.


Long Term /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
As of 315 PM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions are expected though
Friday, when more widespread rain and thunderstorms are
expected. Some low ceilings are possible Wednesday as a backdoor
cold front crosses the region with E/NE winds behind it.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 715 PM...Latest buoy observations are showing SW 10-20
knots with occasional gusts up to 25 knots south of Diamond
Shoals. Seas are 2-4 ft over the northern waters, while its 4-6
ft south. Even though Pamlico Sound is not under a SCA, but
there can be a occasional 25 kt gust this evening; duration is
short.

Farther south impressive seas at Diamond Buoy with waves up to 9
feet earlier with the persistent strong southwest flow. Winds
over the central and southern waters have decreased to under 25
kts, but seas remain at 4 to 7. Will continue the small craft
here through tonight, and through mid Tuesday morning across the
central waters mainly for seas of 6 feet or greater. From time
to time however a few gusts to 25 kts are also possible
especially tonight.

The big story on the waters Tuesday will be a decrease in wind
and waves along with a wind shift over the northern waters as a
front approaches. Seas will generally be 2 to 5 feet with winds
of 10 to 20 kts. From Ocracoke north winds will back toward the
west and even north to northeast up off Oregon Inlet as a front
moves through the waters. South of Ocracoke winds will remain
out of the southwest.

Long Term /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
As of 315 PM Mon...A backdoor cold front will turn winds to ENE
early Wednesday morning around 10-15 kts. Winds continue to blow
out of the ENE through Thursday, although they will weaken to
5-10 kts. Winds veer to the SW later Thursday and then increase
to 15-20 kts Friday. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through the
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Max Temps for 07/24 (Mon)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern         99/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    90/2016  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       99/2011  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    96/1999  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         101/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EH
NEAR TERM...EH/BM
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...BM/SGK
MARINE...EH/BM/SGK
CLIMATE...MHX


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.