Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 240219
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1019 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SKIES HAVE
CLEARED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS REFORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WED...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC THURSDAY...AND WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES THURS WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOCATION OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15K FT OR HIGHER...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1425 METERS YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THU EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION WITH UPR TRF JUST TO THE W. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS WILL BE POSS EARLY BEFORE INSTAB DROPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF OR POSS ENDING INLAND.
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR CST FRI AND GRAD WASHOUT...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR OR E OF CST AND LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND WITH
LOW CHC CST. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TRF
LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POP IMD CST FRI NIGHT
AND JUST INLAND SAT. ON SUNDAY MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH 12Z GFS SLOWER
TO RETURN MOISTURE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INLAND. LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT CONT LOW CHC INLAND SUN AFTN. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TRF CROSSING AND
FRONT WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW
GOES SW.

ANOTHER RATHER DEEP UPR TRF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONT CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND REACHES ERN NC. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR CST AGAIN BY TUE
HOWEVER ATMS DRIES SIGNIF AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TUE OR
WED... WITH BEST CHCS CST EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S MON AHEAD OF FRONT
THEN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
AND LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM WED...ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING SKIES
CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE BLOWOFF. FORECAST SOUNDGINGS SHOWING SOME
3-4K MOISTURE TONIGHT. ALSO SHOWING SURFACE BASED SATURATION INLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE PUT SOME LIGHT  MVFR FOG IN THE TAFS FOR A
FEW HOURS. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. FRONT MOVING INTO AREA OVER NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WITH
STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF IT. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE ASSOCIATED STORMS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU EVENING WITH
OCNL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND END LATER
THU HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY SEE SOME FOG AND ST DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH LIMITED IF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
INCREASE IN CVRG LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1018 PM WED...SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FEET. SPEEDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING SPEEDS TO PICK UP TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER NIGHT.

PREV DISC...LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE BEEN OVERDONE BY ABOUT ONE
FOOT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THOUGH ONCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERSPREADS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT 4-5 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER
FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SW
WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 10-20 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
TONIGHT UNDER INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE CST THU NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WASHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS
THU EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THRU FRI NIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL RETURN SAT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. THE SW
WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD INCREASE SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON.

SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT THU EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN
AND 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
THRU SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD SUN AS WINDS INCREASE WITH 4 TO 6 FT BY
AFTN. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CGG
MARINE...RF/DAG/CGG







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