Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 211238
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
738 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SUNDAY...PATCHY FOG REMAINS VERY ISOLATED INLAND WITH
ONLY A FEW METAR SITES NOTING 4 TO 5 SM FOG. VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF EASTERN NC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST TODAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW ROUGHLY 750 MB...BUT EXPECT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO REMAIN
DRY. CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN
THE 40S INLAND AND NORTHERN ZONES TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP MOISTEN THE COLUMN
WHILE A SHORTWAVE VORTMAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NEAR SUNRISE
MONDAY. CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH LIKELIES FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 264 LATE.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER EASTERN NC THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH
POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERLY CAA LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE OBX...CREATING
A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST FOR COASTAL REGIONS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS IN QUICK SUCCESSION IMPACT THE REGION.

MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFF OF THE COAST AND
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THINK THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WANE IN
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY INLAND AS INSITU DAMMING OCCURS IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT DAMP CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE FAVORED IN
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. TEMP FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
TRICKY AS GUIDANCE PERFORMS POORLY IN THESE DAMMING PATTERNS. LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND IT NOW APPEARS THE
RAIN WILL NOT EXIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INLAND, PERHAPS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IMMEDIATE COAST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS IT DEEPENS...AND 21/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT ON WED AS THE REGION IS IN FAVORABLE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF
140+ KT JET STREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LARGE
SCALE OMEGA/FRONTOGENSIS BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT IN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THUNDER ALL AREAS DUE TO THE
SLOWING OF THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE
SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING
0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES DUE TO
BACKED SSE SFC FLOW. IF ANY INSTABILITY IS REALIZED THIS COULD
MEAN A SMALL CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH LOWS LIKELY REALIZED EARLY
IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS S FLOW
INCREASES. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE 60S
EARLY WED AND LOOK TO REACH THE 70S BY WED AFTERNOON. TEMPS COULD
BE IN THE RECORD HIGH TERRITORY AS 850MB TEMP M-CLIMATE
PERCENTILES ARE ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO THE GEFS.
ANY SUNSHINE REALIZED ON WED WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND NEARING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST PRODUCING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. IT WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS WESTERLY
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S THURSDAY...THEN WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMO FRI INTO SAT
WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM SUNDAY...BRIEF/PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING AT PGV/ISO OTHERWISE SITES WILL BECOME VFR TODAY
WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST CEILINGS AT 5000 FEET OR GREATER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT OAJ/EWN CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE MONDAY AS
STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS...ALONG WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE. THE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK AND TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP
SOUTH AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SWITCHING TO WEST
AND GUSTY ON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRES AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THUR AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 735 AM SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE OUTER
ONSLOW BAY BUOY (41036). SEAS REMAIN WIND-WAVE DOMINANT 2-4 FT.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TODAY 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS
REMAINING 2-3 FT THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW 4 FT SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF GA/SC COASTS TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
EASTERN NC WATERS LATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-20 KT THOUGH SEAS
WILL BUILD 3-5 FT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY WITH WINDS POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF 5-6 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. LIGHTER WINDS AND 2
TO 4 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE RAPIDLY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS RESPOND BY BUILDING AND PEAKING AT 6-12 FT
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUED PREVIOUS SEAS FCST AS WAVEWATCH IV SEEMS
UNDERDONE WITH SEAS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW END
GALES IN GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG



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