Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 271553
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1053 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK 1016MB SFC LOW
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOC WITH WAA ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LIFTING N
OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY HIGH
BASED WITH CIGS AROUND 8K FT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR BELOW SO
HAVE NOT HAS MUCH...IF ANY QPF. EXPECT ADDITIONAL ISOL TO SCT
SHOWERS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOC WITH FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE AS THERE REMAINS LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONTINUED DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER. TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
ABOUT 50-55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCE COULD
LINGER ALONG THE COAST EARLY...WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -5/-8C. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROF PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY. DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WIND, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S BEACHES.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS
SATURDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 ON MONDAY. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LONGER
RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT EITHER PUSHES BACK
NORTH OR DISSIPATES DURING MIDWEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
TO THE AREA UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AND EXPECT THAT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL
BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM THU...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KTS...FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH BUT SEEING SW/W WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
ACROSS ONSLOW BAY AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES AND A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BRINGING NW WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25 KT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONG CAA
DEVELOPS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-6 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
8 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE COASTALS
WATERS TODAY...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE PAMLICO SOUND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
(AND SEAS SUBSIDE) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NW. WINDS SHIFT
W/SW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND 15 TO 20 KT
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/CQD
MARINE...BTC/CQD






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