Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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667
FXUS62 KMHX 270701
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
301 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An inland trough and Bermuda high pressure offshore pattern will
prevail through the week. A weak cool front will approach from
the northwest over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday, early morning convection is clipping our
northern counties and latest HRRR guidance shows this activity
continuing for several more hours and perhaps getting as far south
as the northern Pamlico Sound before gradually dissipating by
sunrise. The leftover boundaries from this convection will likely
re-ignite convection during the afternoon/evening hours today,
mainly over the northern sections once again and this area is in a
Marginal Threat of severe thunderstorms today. Will continue to
carry chance PoPs north to slight chance south today. The other
issue today is once again the heat. Apparent temperature forecasts
show at least a few hours of 105-109 degree heat indices during
the afternoon and evening for all but the Ocracoke area as actual
air temperatures reach the mid/upper 90s away from the coast and
even lower 90s along the Crystal Coast with upper 80s central
Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday, expect convection to be ongoing through
the evening and into the overnight hours, especially over the
northern portions of the CWA, especially in the Albemarle/Pamlico
Sound areas east to the central and northern Outer Banks...where
the best deep omega will occur through midnight. Another very warm
and muggy night upcoming with lows upper 70s to lower 80s...except
a bit cooler where any storms occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3am Wed...Weather pattern will slowly become more unstable
across the area. Persistent mid-state trof and Bermuda high will
continue into the weekend. Frontal boundary will approach from the
N early next week. Corresponding upper pattern will become more
active with numerous disturbances moving through the flow. Hot
temps will continue into this weekend, with Heat Advisory criteria
likely each day. With more clouds and convection early next week,
apparent temp values will be lower.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short term /Through 06Z Thursday/...
As of 1250 AM Wednesday, convection near the NC/VA line is likely
to remain north of all of the TAF sites overnight. There should be
sufficient low-level mixing with winds speeds of 4-8 knots, to
preclude much in the way of overnight fog and VFR conditions
should prevail tonight and through the day on Wednesday. There
will be a threat of scattered thunderstorms inland, especially
near the KPGV and perhaps KISO TAF sites Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/
As of 3am Wed...Sub-VFR in scattered convection each day, as well
as in possible late night/early AM patchy fog, especially where
precip occurred. Winds will continue SW 5-15 knots by day and less
than 10 knots at night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and tonight/
As of 255 AM Wednesday, no major changes to overall thinking with
the marine forecast. Winds are currently SW at 5-15 knots with a
few gusts to near 20 knots at Diamond Buoy. Seas are 1-3 feet, but
closer to 5 feet at Diamond Buoy. Think the diurnal trends will
continue today and tonight as winds diminish a bit during the
morning hours, increase during the afternoon and evening, then
diminish again after midnight. Seas should mostly be 2-4 feet
through the period, which will be reflected in the forecast,
although at stray 5-footer will be possible in some of the gusty
late-day winds.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/
As of 3am Wed...Weather pattern of the past few day will continue
into this weekend, with surface trof over the midstate area, and
the Bermuda high offshore. SW winds 10-20 knots and 2-4 foot seas
on the coastal waters, and SW 5-15 on the adjacent sounds and
rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA



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