Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 290916
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
516 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND PUSH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST BY AFTN ASSOCD WITH
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST ALONG THE
INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BETWEEN LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE
COAST DURING THE EARLY AFTN. INTERACTION WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR BUT
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE OUT OF REACH.

TONIGHT...LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE MORE FULLY RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. ECFL WILL ENJOY SE PREVAILING WIND
FLOW...WITH AN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY MOIST THRU COLUMN...SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER WITH BEST OPPORTUNITY OVER FAR INTERIOR
SECTIONS LATE. CONTINUED WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.

MON-THU...SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA ON MON TO
TRANSITION NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NWFL BY TUE. LOCALLY...MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND OFFER BETTER CHANCES FOR PRODUCTIVE SEA
BREEZES AND DEEPER CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR SEGMENT MERGERS WILL
BUMP UP RAIN CHANCES SOME MON AND MORE TUE AND PEAKING 30-40
PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN UPPER
80S AND MINS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. THEN...WED-THU
WILL FIND THE ONCE SETTLING FRONT MAKING ITS SOUTHWARD MOVE DOWN
THE PNSLA. MODELS HINT AT AN ASSIST FROM A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE
U.S. SE TO HELP SWING THINGS THRU...GRADUALLY BECOMING POST
FRONTAL THU. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ON WED AFTERNOON (50 PERCENT)
AHEAD OF FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLDS TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD
KICK-OFF CONVECTION WITH PROMISE OF BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS IN MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS (IFR) SHOULD AFFECT NORTHERN TERMINALS LEE/DAB THROUGH
14Z...AND POSSIBLY MCO. ISOLD SHRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND
MOVING SEA BREEZE BETWEEN LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST
16Z-19Z. THEN INCREASING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH LARGER LAKE
BREEZES AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TSRA
OVER THE INTERIOR AFT 20Z AND PERSIST THRU SUNSET. WILL ADD VCTS
TO 12Z TAF ISSUANCE FOR INLAND TERMINALS (MCO/SFB/LEE/ISM).

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AS
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. RESULTING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTN
IN A SEA BREEZE. SEAS NEAR 2 FEET.

TONIGHT...WIND FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

SAT-TUE...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HAVE ALL BUT DIMINISH BY SAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE ECFL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND.
SE WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY. WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NEAR 15 KNOTS IN
VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2-3 FT. SE TO S WIND FLOW CONTINUES
THRU TUE AHEAD NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MID-
WEEK...WITH INCREASING OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICALLY LOW RH FORECAST AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST IN THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE MAINLY INTERIOR WITH LESS
COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  69  87  69 /  20  20  10  10
MCO  90  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  10
MLB  86  70  86  70 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  87  69  87  70 /  20  10   0  10
LEE  91  70  91  71 /  30  20  20  20
SFB  91  69  90  70 /  30  20  10  10
ORL  91  71  90  70 /  30  20  10  10
FPR  86  69  87  68 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SHARP


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