Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 280742
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
342 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...PERSISTENT QUASI-STATIONARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY HAS PULLED
IT FAIRLY FAR NORTHWARDS INTO NORTH FLORIDA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER NORTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO STRING OUT
IN THE SAME AREA...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN ABLE
TO LIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE FL STRAITS/FAR S FLORIDA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR INTO S FLORIDA AS EVIDENCED
BY LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS WITH PWATS AT MIAMI "ONLY" AROUND 1.8"
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF PENINSULAR FL REMAINS IN THE 2.2" RANGE.
THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL ALSO KEEP FAIRLY BRISK
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AT 20-25KTS.

MODELS SHOW A SPREAD IN RAIN CHANCES FROM TODAY WITH NEARLY 90% FROM
THE ORLANDO METRO NORTHWARDS AND ONLY AROUND 20% NEAR MARTIN COUNTY.
EVEN WITH A LITTLE DRYING...DONT THINK SPREAD WILL BE QUITE THAT
DRASTIC GIVEN THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SW FLOW. WILL KEEP 60-70% FROM
OSCEOLA-BREVARD NORTHWARDS ENHANCED BY THE BOUNDARY TAPERING OFF TO
30-40% NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHERN MARTIN.

EXPECT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION AS YESTERDAY...WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND W FL COAST SPREADING INLAND MID TO
LATE MORNING AND ACTIVITY GENERALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS...WITH QUICK
STORM MOTION ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH.

WED-FRI...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT. THERE IS NO APPARENT SUPPRESSING
FORCE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS...THOUGH
THE 00Z GFS DID SHOW MINOR DRYING IN THE NORTH WED AND IN THE
SOUTH THU. THESE SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES ARE DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY FORECAST...BUT DID BLEND THEM INTO THE FORECAST POPS
WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CONSENSUS VALUES.

WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST
SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY. CAME OUT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH
HALF ON THU AND ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE DAILY CHANGES IN RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDINESS WILL DICTATE MAX TEMPS BUT DID LEAN TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY LOWER CONSENSUS VALUES.

WEEKEND-NEXT TUE...THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AT THESE LATITUDES WILL
LIKELY BE IN A NEAR STAND OFF AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO HOLD SWAY WHILE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST KEEPS ATLANTIC RIDGE
FROM BUILDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN EARNEST. WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN NEARBY AND ONLY LIMITED DEEP LAYER DRYING
IS INDICATED. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO NUDGE TOWARDS
CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SHOULD
KEEP SCATTERED POPS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS NOT AS PREVALENT THIS MORNING AS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...BUT WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL REPORTING FEW-SCT020-
025...WILL KEEP THE MENTION FOR TEMPO CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK. KLEE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SEEING MORE PREVAILING IFR CIGS SO
WILL KEEP PREVAILING IN THIS AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO KTPA-KZPH AND VCNTY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARDS AFTER 11Z FIRST AFFECTING KISM. SCT-NMRS SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA PUSHING EASTWARDS NORTH OF KLAL-KMLB 13Z-22Z WITH
COVERAGE ALONG OKEECHOBEE AND TREASURE COAST A LITTLE LOWER. GUSTS
TO 35KTS MAY AFFECT A FEW SITES AS ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED INTO N FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH S-SW FLOW 10-15KTS PRESENT OVER ALL THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WIND FIELD INTO TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT
WITH 4FT WELL OFFSHORE IN CONTINUING SHORT PERIODS 3-5SEC DUE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE COAST FROM LATE MORNING ONWARDS.

WED-THU...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTH GEORGIA AND EASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THOUGH THE
00Z GFS DOES NOT DO THIS UNTIL THU. A CHANCE FOR QUICK MOVING
OFFSHORE SQUALLS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ON WED SOUTH
OF CANAVERAL.

FRI-SAT...THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL FORECAST
TO BUILD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
SUPPORT 10-15 KNOT SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT LOOKS QUITE MOIST BOTH DAYS
AND THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES A LITTLE STRONGER STEERING FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SAT...SO BOATERS MUST REMAIN MINDFUL OF
THE THREAT THAT OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS POSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  74  92  76 /  70  30  40  20
MCO  89  75  91  76 /  70  30  50  20
MLB  92  75  89  75 /  60  20  50  20
VRB  92  75  90  73 /  50  20  50  20
LEE  89  76  93  77 /  70  30  50  20
SFB  90  75  94  77 /  70  30  50  20
ORL  89  76  93  77 /  70  30  50  20
FPR  93  75  90  74 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....LASCODY


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