Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 262042
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
CLOUDS HAD FILLED IN ACROSS ALL BUT A TINY SLIVER OF NRN
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS OF 2PM. LOCAL 88D/TDWR IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW
SPRINKLES OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN HALF CWA. THIS PUT THE BREAKS ON
THE ALREADY LIMITED DIURNAL TEMP RISE...AND AS A RESULT JUST ABOUT
ALL AREAS TOPPED OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE...WITH A FEW U60S N/W OF
I-4.

TONIGHT...
FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY...HINGING ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW WELL THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLES THE ONGOING SHALLOW WEAK UPGLIDE EVENT
CAUSING IT. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD OVERCAST AND
SPRINKLES TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. LATER TONIGHT...LOCAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUBTLY WEAKENS AND VEERS THE 925-850MB FLOW...DECREASING
THE UPGLIDE. IF THIS VERIFIES CORRECTLY...WE SHOULD SEE RESULTANT
DECREASE CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND SOME
STRATUS TO DEVELOP. AM NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPING
AS MAV GUIDANCE HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW VSBYS.
CONSEQUENTLY...BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE BROADBRUSHED ALL
AREAS WITH PATCHY FOG...AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PRESENT SC DECK. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE U50S TO
AROUND 60F NEAR AND NW OF I-4...AND 60-65F TO THE SE.

SATURDAY...
A WARMER DAY IS ON TAP AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT DO
DEVELOP BURN OFF. PROBABLY MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...BUT SUFFICIENT
DIURNAL HEATING TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE U70S/L80S. SHAVED ABOUT 1-2F
OFF OF THE MAV NUMBERS JUST IN CASE MORNINGS CLOUDS ARE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT.

00Z SUN - 12Z MON...
A DEEP ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT INTO THE W
ATLC AS A HI AMP SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKY MTNS RIDES OVER ITS
NW FLANK AND FLATTENS OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST. AS IT
DOES...A SECONDARY H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL PUSH IN THE W ATLC...WHERE THE TWO WILL MERGE INTO ONE
LATE SUN NIGHT. THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE WILL BECOME A FORMIDABLE
BARRIER THAT NOT ONLY WILL BLOCK THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
TROF CURRENTLY ADVANCING TOWARD THE MID/LWR MS VALLEY...BUT WILL
DEFLECT MUCH OF THE JET ENERGY OVER THE ERN CONUS OFF TO THE NORTH.

A LOW LVL MOISTURE BAND ASSOCD WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL
WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE SUPPRESIVE NATURE OF THE RIDGE PATTERN
COUPLED WITH ITS WEAK H85-H30 VORTICITY/OMEGA LIFT AND H30-H20
DIVERGENCE WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. PRIMARY WX
CONCERN WILL BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MRNG FOG FORMATION GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED LIGHT SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS AND NEARLY SATURATED H100-H90
LYR. PREVAILING SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV CLIMO AVG...MAX TEMPS
IN THE U70S/L80S (5-10F ABV AVG)...MIN TEMPS L/M60S INTERIOR AND
M/U60S ALONG THE COAST (ARND 15F ABV AVG).

MON-THU...(PREV DISC)
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FIRST
OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN US ON MONDAY. NEXT
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE MON NIGHT AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO FLORIDA
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH. THE ECMWF WITH ITS STRONGER AND LOWER
LATITUDE SURFACE LOW BRING THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY BUT WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
THAN THE SLOWER AND WEAKER GFS. A CONSENSUS OF BOTH PUTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT-WED BY WHICH EVEN THE
SLOWER GFS HAS THE FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S FLORIDA. DRIER
DAY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH A FEW AROUND 80 MON AND TUES. A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED AND THURS WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET. VFR NORTH OF MLB-LK KISM WITH
CIGS RANGING FROM OVC035-050  AS YOU HEAD NORTH. TO THE SOUTH...MVFR
CIGS TREND OVC030-020 AS YOU HEAD SOUTH. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP THROUGH
MVFR RANGE. AFTER 08Z...PREVAILING CIGS NR BKN010 AND 3-5SM BR WITH
AREAS IMC DEVELOPING IN FOG/STRATUS. AS STATED ABOVE...A LOT DEPENDS
ON TO WHAT EVENT THE SC DECK BREAKS UP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SAT...GENTLE ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 10KT OR A LITTLE LESS WITH
SEAS 2-3FT. LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN (AOA 15SEC PD) BEGINS TO ARRIVE
INTO THE OUTRE WATER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
NUDGE COMBINED SEAS WELL OFFSHORE UP TO 3-4FT TOWARD SUNSET.

SUN-SUN-NIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE DAY...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SW OVERNIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL TROF PRESSES INTO
THE DEEP S AND INTERACTS WITH THE HI PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE W
ATLC. A LINGERING ERLY SWELL WILL PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS BTWN 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE.

MON-MON NIGHT...THE FRONTAL TROF WILL PRESS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
THRU THE DAY...THEN INTO THE N PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING THE
WRN FLANK OF THE W ATLC RIDGE IN THE PROCESS BUT SACRIFICING SOME OF
ITS OWN STRENGTH AS WELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW BREEZE THRU THE
DAY...BCMG SW THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN W/NW IN THE PREDAWN HRS. SEAS
2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE...SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT AREAWIDE AFT
SUNSET AS WINDS VEER TO OFFSHORE.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE
N/NW BY LATE AFTN AS THE FRONTAL TROF SAGS INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. SEAS AOB 2FT...EXCEPT 2-3FT IN THE GULF STREAM N OF FT.
PIERCE INLET.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRNTL TROF WILL STALL OVER THE S HALF OF THE
PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE.
SEAS 2-3FT THRU THE DAY...BUILDING TO 4-5FT OFFSHORE N OF CAPE
CANAVERAL AS A NERLY SWELL BEGINS TO IMPACT THE LCL ATLC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  75  65  79 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  60  80  64  81 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  65  79  68  80 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  65  80  66  80 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  57  79  64  81 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  59  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  60  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  65  79  67  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.