Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
320 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...Higher than Normal Rain Chance This Weekend...

Today and Tonight...Diagnosis for storm development remains
favorable this afternoon as continued deep layer SW flow combines
with daytime instability and moisture to produce numerous
afternoon storms. Storm level steering winds have lightened,
however the light SW component will lead to slow moving storms and
a opportunity for locally heavy rain of 2 to 4" with considerable
boundary interactions. Storms over land wl come to an end by
around 11 PM with some lingering showers and storms over the
Atlantic waters overnight. Expect highs in the L90s and lows
tonight in the M70s.

Sun-Sun Night...The low-level Atlantic ridge axis will meander
between central/south-central FL through the period. The mid-levels
show a weak troughy pattern across the region with some weak energy
aloft and 500 mb temperatures between -7C/-8C providing ample
afternoon destabilization. PWAT values remain consistent and
continue in the neighborhood of 2 inches. The east coast sea breeze
should develop along the Space/Treasure coasts and push slowly
inland during the afternoon. See no reason why not to continue
advertising SCT-NMRS afternoon/early evening showers/storms. Local
threats continue to be torrential downpours leading to minor
nuisance flooding, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and perhaps some
small hail. Storm motion remains out of the SW or W which favors the
eastern peninsula for most convective storms in the afternoon and
evening. Some late day activity will continue to show variable
directional movement due to strong boundary mergers. Convection will
decrease/dissipate during the evening with cloud debris thinning
through the night. High temperatures generally near 90 degrees to
L90s and overnight lows warm in the L-M70s with muggy conditions.

Mon-Fri...The low-level ridge axis remains forecast to linger
between the central/south-central FL peninsula, perhaps being nudged
even further southward late in the week. The mid-level weak
troughiness will flatten out through Tue night, but will gradually
be replaced once again with a weak troughy mid-level pattern across
the southeast U.S. and north FL from mid into late week. Our pattern
of cooler mid-level temperatures will begin to warm from mid-week
into the late extended period. PWAT values remain consistent with a
summer-time pattern, perhaps a bit more moist northward, and will
occasionally decrease from 1.80-2.00 inches to 1.60-1.80 inches at
times. Having said all of that, believe that "high-end" SCT
afternoon/evening shra/tsra wording continues to look appropriate
for this time period. Storm steering flow appears to remain light
SWRLY/WRLY, but will also appear chaotic at times due to stronger
afternoon/evening boundary collisions. Near seasonal temps in the
M70s for lows and highs in the L-M90s expected.


Initial shower/storm development along the coast local lake
breezes, with additional SHRA/TS forming and slowly spreading
inland through afternoon. Cig/Vsby reductions to Tempo MVFR in
reduced visibility and cigs NR Fl040-050 with brief IFR possible
mainly from early through mid-aftn at all sites.


Today and Tonight...Surface high pressure ridge will remain located
south of the waters longer than originally anticipated. This will
produce favorable conds however with not much in the way of swell
and seas less than 3 ft. An onshore sea breeze wl develop during
the afternoon. Seas 1-2 feet, occasionally 3 feet well offshore.

Mariners are reminded that sudden wind shifts and choppy seas can
occur in and near lightning storms along the coast and from storms
moving offshore from the mainland.

Sun-Wed...The low-level ridge axis remains stationed between the
central/south-central FL peninsula during this time. Expect gentle
to moderate breezes ranging from S/SE during the day to S/SW
overnight. Seas AOB 2FT near shore and 2-3FT offshore (up to 4FT in
the Gulf Stream). Biggest threat to mariners will be from
night/morning Gulf Stream convection and late morning/afternoon-
early evening convection along the east coast intracoastal/near
shore Atlantic waters.


As of 2 AM this morning Shingle Creek at Campbell (SHIF1) was at
58.11 ft, which is 0.11 foot above Action Stage. The creek, with
recent slow rise is forecast to remain around the present level.
A slow falling trend is forecast early next week. River level
updates and forecasts will be issued at least once daily while the
creek remains above or near action stage.


DAB  90  74  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  92  74  91  75 /  70  30  60  30
MLB  90  74  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
VRB  90  74  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
LEE  91  76  90  76 /  70  30  60  20
SFB  92  75  91  76 /  70  30  60  20
ORL  92  75  91  76 /  70  30  60  30
FPR  91  73  91  74 /  60  40  50  30





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