Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 291944
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
344 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...CHILLY TONIGHT THEN MODERATING TEMPS...

TONIGHT/MON...
LITTLE CHANGE...EXCEPT WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY IS SHOWN SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY THE NAM. THE MODEL SHOWS SOME
PRECIP ALONG THE NORTH COAST...BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT AND
WILL CONFINE ANY SMALL POPS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VICINITY CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING. RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED
WEST/EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON MON. THE ONLY
ABNORMALITY WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. WEAK ONSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES
MORE MILD ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS. MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER CLOSER
TO NORMAL ON MON.

MON NIGHT-SAT...
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER W-RIDGE/E-TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO
DAMPEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO TAKE ON A GREATER COMPONENT OF ZONAL
FLOW. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION SOUTH AND
LOCATE E-W OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH WEAKER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO SETTLE NEAR THE AREA TUE/WED BUT EVENTUALLY
WASHES OUT. YET...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RE-INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS FORECAST EVOLVES... WITH AN
EYE ON ISOLATED GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK
YIELDING MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
WED AND TOWARD FL THU. THIS MODEL FEATURE WAS HAVING DIFFICULTY
MAINTAINING IDENTITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT
SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION FOR THU.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MON...WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY IS SHOWN SETTLING INTO OUR
NORTHERN WATERS BY THE NAM TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE GULF STREAM.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH AND REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS
ON MON.

MON NIGHT-THU...(FROM PREVIOUS) BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD
COLLAPSES INTO MON NIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ADJ ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT/TUE AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. FOLLOWING THAT...A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN. SEAS 3-4 FEET MON
MAINLY IN SWELL...SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET BY MID WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL OCCUR
AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH THE PRESENCE OF WEAK WINDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  77  57  75 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  48  81  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  50  77  55  77 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  49  77  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  48  79  59  81 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  47  80  60  80 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  51  79  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  48  77  52  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....SHARP


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