National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMLB 110743
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR MID WEEK WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED NIGHT AND THU...

TODAY...RIDGE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
EXIST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
AND MOVE INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S. HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL STILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR LATE. GENERALLY EXPECTING PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AGAIN TODAY WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO CROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS REACHING THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND SHIFTING EASTWARD. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO
PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY AND MOVE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY FROM ORLANDO
NORTHWARD BEFORE SUNRISE. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM 30
PERCENT OVER NORTHERN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND 20 PERCENT SOUTH. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY...A MID LVL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PENINSULA AROUND SUNRISE
WILL PUSH OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS TRANSITION TO SRN SECTIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EVENING. SOME NVA BEHIND THE
MID LVL TROUGH AXIS...DRYING THE IN H5-H7 LAYER SHOULD LIMIT DEEP
CONVECTION BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHC NORTH IN THE MORNING AND SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INCREASING LOW LVL WSW/SW FLOW WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
NORTH TO MID 80S SRN SECTIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE US WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH E CENTRAL FL WED NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
EVENING WILL BECOME NW OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER LOWS FROM 45-50 NORTH
TO 55-60 SOUTH. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT.

THU...A MUCH COOLER DAY IN STORE WITH NW/N WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND
DEEP LAYER DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE SUNNY AND COOL. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST INTO THE ATLC FROM THE NC
COAST AND LOW LVL FLOW WILL QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SATURDAY...LOW
LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE SE STATES. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST AND LOWER 80S
OVER THE INTERIOR.

SUN-TUE...ON SUNDAY A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FL EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS DO NOT LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXACT
SOLUTION BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHTNING STORMS. WILL KEEP POPS ON
THE LOWER END OF MENTIONABLE RANGE 20-30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM SUNDAY IN THE 80S THEN IN THE 70S NORTH AND NEAR 80 SRN
SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS THROUGH 12-13Z THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN ANY ISO/SCT SHOWERS
THAT MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND PUSH EASTWARD.
HOWEVER PLAN ON LEAVING VCSH/TEMPO GROUPS OUT OF THE 12Z TAF UPDATE
FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOWARD DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
W/SW WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS NEAR THE COAST BECOMING MORE E/SE LATER IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME S/SW AND INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING UP TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET TODAY UP TO 3-4
FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.

WED...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC LEVELS WILL SEAS BUILDING WELL
OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WED
NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
6-8 FT OFFSHORE LATE. NW-N WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS ON THU WILL BUILD
SEAS TO SCA LEVELS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 10-12 FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
BY FRIDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH SEAS DROPPING TO 4-5 FT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  63  83  47 /   0  30  40  10
MCO  82  62  84  51 /   0  30  40  10
MLB  82  64  85  54 /  10  20  40  10
VRB  82  64  84  59 /  10  20  40  10
LEE  80  63  82  46 /   0  30  40  10
SFB  82  63  83  50 /   0  30  40  10
ORL  81  64  83  50 /   0  30  40  10
FPR  82  64  84  61 /  10  20  40  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER