Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 231441 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE HI PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE CONUS E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE ACRS CENTRAL FL TODAY. H100-H70
ANTICYLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE GREAT LAKES. A LIGHT BUT DEEP E/NERLY FLOW
PREVAILS ACRS THE FL PENINSULA... ONE OF THE LEAST ACTIVE REGIMES
FOR CENTRAL FL WRT DIURNAL CONVECTION. TO FURTHER SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...H85-H50 ANALYSIS REVEALS A ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST N
OF TAMPAX BAY WITH A VORT MIN AXIS SPANNING THE I-4 CORRIDOR. H100-
H70 MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH MEAN RH VALUES LARGELY AOB 70PCT. UPR
LVLS NOT MUCH HELP EITHER WITH THE H30-H20 LYR DOMINATED BY WEAK
CONVERGENCE.

MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEALED PWATS ARND 1.6" AND H50 TEMPS ARND -9C...
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...AND SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL REQUIRE
SEABREEZE/MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION IN ORDER TO DVLP. IN THE
FACE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP E/NE FLOW...ANY SEA BREEZE MERGER
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WRN PENINSULA. AFTN MAX TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR
SHOULD REACH THE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS BY MID AFTN (L90S)...BUT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS W OF THE FL TURNPIKE.

MRNG FCST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...NO SIG CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 24/12Z

SFC WINDS: THRU 24/00Z...E/NE 12-15KTS WITH OCNL G20-23KTS N OF KMLB-
KISM.  BTWN 24/00Z-24/03Z...E/NE DIMINISHING TO 3-7KTS CONTG THRU
24/12Z.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 23/18Z...LCL MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030 COASTAL
SITES  ASSOCD WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...
ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/TSRAS S OF KFPR. BTWN 23/18Z-23/24Z...SCT MVFR
SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS W OF KSFB-KOBE. AFT 24/00Z...SLGT CHC MVFR
SHRAS COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN AN ERLY FLOW
ACRS THE LCL ATLC. LOOSER PGRAD S OF SEBASTIAN INLET DUE TO A WEAK
STATIONARY TROF OVER TREASURE COAST...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZE OVER THE SRN LEG...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE BREVARD/VOLUSIA
LEGS. SEAS BUILDING FROM 2-3FT TO 3-4FT THIS AFTN. NO SIG CHANGES
WITH THE MID MRNG UPDATE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...MOSES


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