Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 301417
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1015 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to spin in place near the SC
coast. Position of the storm has disrupted the Altc ridge axis...
leaving much of the central/south peninsula under the influence of
an H100-H70 col with W/NW mean winds aob 10kts thru the lyr.
Mrng RAOBS reveal a fairly moist/unstable airmass over the FL
peninsula this mrng...PWATs arnd 1.50" at KJAX/KXMR/KTBW...incrsg to
arnd 1.75" at KMFL. Also notable is the lack of any meaningful
capping index thru the H100-H70 lyr outside of sfc based inversions
Indeed...RAP40 measuring H85-H70 lapse rates btwn 6.5-7.0C/KM...
suggesting little in the way of mid lvl convective inhibition.
Current WX parameters imply an early start to daily tsra activity...
esp with convective temperatures in the M/U80s. Expect storms to
initiate over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region as the weaker pgrad
to the south will promote the formation of the east coast sea breeze
by early aftn...with instability aided by increasing moisture values
to the south. RAP40 analysis indicates H100-H70 mean dew point
depressions btwn 5C-7C...suggesting some lingering low lvl dry air
will hamper storm development somewhat...keeping total coverage blo
Shra/tsra dvlpmnt will work its way nwd along the sea breeze thru
the aftn...culminating in late aftn/early evng tsras along and N of
the I-4 corridor as the east/west coast sea breeze collisions occur.
Cold air remains in place aloft with H50 temps arnd -10C...so cannot
rule out strong/svr tsras...esp with sfc dewpoints largely in the
L70s. In addition...the mean H85-H50 steering flow has been
disrupted by the flow around the base of TD Bonnie. Mean winds N/NW
aob 10KTS will result in slow moving storms capable of generating
very heavy lcl rain.
Long period ocean swells will continue to enhanced threat for strong
rip currents at local beaches thru the remainder of the Memorial Day
weekend. The greatest threat for rip currents will be through noon
today and after 6:30PM this evng due to tidal effects. Always swim
near a lifeguard and never swim alone.
Sfc Winds: Thru 30/16Z...W/NW 3-6KTS bcmg N/NW 6-9KTS. Btwn 30/16Z-
30/18Z...coastal sites bcmg E/NE 7-10KTS. Btwn 30/19-22Z...interior
sites bcmg E/NE 5-8KTS...coastal sites bcmg E/SE 6-9KTS. Btwn 31/00Z-
31/03Z bcmg S/SW AOB 3KTS.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: Btwn 30/16Z-20/22Z...CIGS btwn FL040-060...S of KMLB-
KISM sct IFR tsras slgt chc LIFR tsras with sfc G35KTS. Btwn 30/20Z-
31/02Z...CIGS btwn FL080-100...N of KMLB-KISM sct IFR tsras slgt chc
LIFR stars with sfc G35KTS.
Broad cyclonic circulation around the
center of TD Bonnie will affect the lcl Atlc waters thru midday...
light to gentle W/NW breeze from the Cape northward... light W/SW
breeze to the south. Sea breeze circulation will dvlp from S to N by
early aftn...windshift to a light to gentle E/NE breeze along the
coast. Seas generally 2-3FT...up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream.
Short Term/Fcst Updates....Bragaw