Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220821 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
421 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST. CONTINUED PRESENCE OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN.
THIS WL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. UPWARD
FORCING AIDED BY COLLISION OF BOUNDARIES OVER THE INTERIOR FROM
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WL HELP PRODUCE SOME SLOW MOVING LIGHTNING
STORMS. AFFECTED AREAS WL MAINLY BR FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO METRO
ORLANDO AND KISSIMMEE/SAINT CLOUD TO OKEECHOBEE. PRIMARY HAZARDS
WL BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

HIGHS WL MAKE IT TO THE MID 90S INTERIOR COUNTIES AND LOWER 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND BEACHES TEMPERED BY THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE
BREEZE. WL KEEP MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED STORMS WELL INLAND
THROUGH AROUND 11 PM. CLEARING SKIES AFTERWARD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD TO WARM OVERNIGHT.

SAT-SUN...
MID/UPR LVL WINDS ACRS THE CONUS SET TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL TROF OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE FED BY AN 80KT ZONAL JET IN
THE H30-H20 LYR EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLC TO THE UPR MIDWEST...
WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE W COAST WILL BE FED BY A 100KT
H30-H20 JET DIGGING DOWN THE NW PAC COAST. AS BOTH TROFS DEEPEN...A
CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK WILL DVLP WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LWR
MS VALLEY.

POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE A DEEP N/NE FLOW ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA...WHICH IS ONE OF OUR LEAST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE REGIMES
AS THE FLOW  TRANSPORTS RELATIVELY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO FL.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT DECEPTIVE WITH FCST PWAT READINGS
HOLDING BTWN 1.7"-2.0" THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH SCT POPS...HOWEVER...DISTRIBUTION OF THE MOISTURE THRU THE
COLUMN IS RATHER UNIFORM WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAINING LARGELY
AOA 5C. IN ADDITION...WITH THE NERLY WIND COMPONENT DVLPG ALOFT...
SHOULD SEE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DVLP EARLY AND WILL PUSH WELL
INLAND PRIOR TO MAX HEATING. FURTHERMORE...THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL
BLOCK OUT ANY MEANINGFUL MID/UPR LVL SHORT WAVE ENERGY...LEAVING SFC
HEATING AND MESOSCALE BNDRY COLLISIONS AS THE PRIMARY SOURCES FOR
LIFT.

WILL SPLIT POPS BTWN THE COAST AND INTERIOR...GOING WITH 10-20PCT
COVERAGE SAT AND 20-30PCT SUN. CONTINUED WARM AS THE LACK OF STORM
COVERAGE/CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR NEAR FULL SUN THRU LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN...WHILE THE DVLPNG ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS TRANSPORTS WARM
OCEAN AIR ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MIN TEMPS IN
THE M-U70S.

MON-THU...
RELATIVELY DRY WX PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE PORTION
OF THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL STRETCH AND ELONGATE E OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...DEFORMED BY THE SLOWLY ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE CARIB THAT IS
FCST LIFT ACRS OR E OF THE BAHAMA BANK MON/TUE. DEEP E/NE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...ALLOWING RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE TO PUSH ACRS CNTRL FL.
GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A MID LVL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE
FL PENINSULA BY TUE NEXT WEEK WITH H70 TEMPS WARMING TO ARND
10C...H50 TEMPS AOA -2C. THE LACK OF THERMAL INSTABILITY ALONE
WARRANTS BLO CLIMO POPS...BUT THE PREVAILING DEEP LYR NE FLOW
CLINCHES IT. WILL CAP PRECIP CHANCES AOB 30PCT...CONTINUED WARM WITH
AFTN TEMPS IN THE L/M90S...MRNG MINS IN THE L/M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVALENT FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH 19Z. FM 19Z THROUGH 02Z ISOLD
SHRA AND TS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS PSBL W OF A LINE FROM ISM-MCO-
DED. AFT 02Z VFR AREA WIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE
WATERS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS AND WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. AN ONSHORE
BREEZE FROM EARLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WL PRODUCE A LITTLE WIND
CHOP NR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LAND BASED STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...
WEAK ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL AND S FL ON SAT WILL GENERATE A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SW BREEZE THRU MIDDAY...BCMG E/SE IN THE AFTN AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS. SEAS AOB 2FT WITH DOMINANT PDS ARND
8SEC.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL COLLAPSE AS IT IS SQUEEZED ON ITS NRN FLANK BY
A BACKDOOR FRONT PRESSING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD... AND ON ITS SRN
FLANK BY THE APPROACHING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE CARIB.
LIGHT SW WINDS ARND DAYBREAK WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE
BREEZE BY EARLY AFTN AS THE FRONTAL TROF WEAKENS OVR THE DEEP
SOUTH...REPLACED BY THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE. SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE
AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE

THE LCL PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN AFT SUNSET AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACRS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTERACTS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL
RIDGE. NE WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO 10-15KTS...ARND 15KTS OFFSHORE LEG N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE.

MON-TUE...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE BREEZE AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIFTS N INTO
THE ATLC. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE ON MON
BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 4-6FT TUE AFTN AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM
THE ATLC COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  75  93  77 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  96  75  95  77 /  30  20  20  10
MLB  92  75  91  76 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  91  72  91  74 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  96  78  96  79 /  30  20  20  10
SFB  96  78  96  78 /  20  20  20  10
ORL  96  78  96  79 /  30  20  20  10
FPR  90  72  91  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW







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