


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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188 FXUS62 KMLB 151800 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - An area of low pressure and associated deep moisture moves over central Florida today and into tonight. Above-normal lightning storm chances and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary impacts. - Daily rain chances remain high, up to around 80% through midweek as the disturbance continues to pull deep moisture over the peninsula as it moves into the Gulf. - A more seasonal pattern returns late week with rain chances returning closer to normal by Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Low pressure (designated Invest 93L) will push onshore the east coast of Florida today and shift westward. North-northeast shear on the system will continue to concentrate persistent banding of heavier showers and isolated storms to the south-southwest of the center. With deep tropical moisture in place this activity will be efficient rainfall makers, easily producing 1-3 inches of rainfall, with localized totals of 4-7 inches possible. Isolated flash flooding may occur across locations that do see some of these locally higher totals, mainly across Lake/Volusia counties southward through Osceola and Brevard counties. Have therefore issued a Flood Watch for this area through 8 PM this evening. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Today... IR satellite imagery shows a weak area of low pressure offshore the central Florida Atlantic coast gradually becoming better defined. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor this feature, now highlighting a 40% chance for tropical depression to form over the next two days. Regardless of tropical of development, the low is expected to move westward across the Florida peninsula today and tonight, before reaching the northeast Gulf into Wednesday. Southwest of the low`s center, a band of disorganized showers and isolated storms is observed. This activity is expected to slowly approach the area early this morning, reaching portions of the east central Florida coastline before sunrise. Subsequent shower and storm development is expected to move across the local area through the day as the low passes central Florida. While everywhere will not see continuous rain all day, forecast trends expect widespread coverage of showers and storms (~80-90%) with some areas seeing multiple rounds. HREF mean QPF generally suggests widespread amounts near or less than 1", but localized totals up to 4.5" will be possible across the eastern side of the peninsula. Low lying and poor drainage areas which receive these localized higher totals will be vulnerable to ponding of water and minor flooding. In addition to a localized flood threat, RAP model analysis indicates enough instability (CAPE ~ 2,000 J/kg) to promote an isolated lightning storm threat. Stronger storms which develop will be capable of water loaded down drafts producing wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Temperatures are expected to be highly influenced by cloud cover and increased rain chances with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A tropical airmass will keep conditions muggy with peak heat index values ranging the mid 90s to low 100s. Wednesday-Thursday... The area of low pressure emerges into the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. As the low departs, the ridge axis of the Atlantic high extends westward across central Florida, establishing southerly flow. Tropical moisture remains in place on Wednesday, becoming reinforced by a secondary wave of moisture off the Bahamas on Thursday. Continued deep moisture and lingering waves of vorticity aloft will keep a wet pattern in place each day with peak rain chances between 70-80 percent. Decreasing cloud cover on Wednesday should increase surface instability, fueling an isolated storm threat. Stronger storms which develop Wednesday will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, wind gust of 45-50 mph, and torrential downpours. Cloud cover looks to rebuild on Thursday, at least across the south, and storm hazards remain a tad more uncertain. Temperatures return closer to normal through the period with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in the low to mid 70s Wednesday morning trend a few degrees warmer into Thursday morning. Friday-Monday... Broad mid level ridging slides over Florida late week and through the weekend. At the surface, the western flank of the Atlantic high extends across central Florida and into the Gulf. A more summerlike pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms returns, guided by the sea breeze circulation. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s each day, with peak heat index values forecast to range 100-106 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 (Modified Previous Discussion) Low pressure across the local Atlantic waters this morning will move onshore and across the Florida peninsula today. Variable winds are expected in vicinity of the low before becoming southerly as the low pushes onshore. Poor boating conditions are forecast, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet where winds will be up to 15 to 20 knots. Have added small craft exercise caution headlines across this portion of the waters for today. Southerly flow becomes further reinforced into mid week as high pressure builds across the waters, and small craft should exercise caution tonight and into Wednesday as winds increase to 15-20 kts. Seas build to 2-3 ft. High coverage of showers and storms (70-90%) is forecast to continue through Thursday with a more summerlike pattern returning late week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Surface low has shifted onshore near KDAB this afternoon, accompanied by a large swath of rain and embedded thunderstorms. Activity has been confined to KMCO/KTIX northward, where prevailing IFR to LIFR conditions have been observed the last few hours. As the low shifts west to northwest thru the late afternoon, rainfall will also pull towards the Gulf, returning coastal sites to MVFR as of the 18Z package. Embedded storms will lead to brief TS threat, handled across the interior with TEMPO thru 22Z. Isolated storms have sparked south of TIX, but vicinity mention should suffice. Showers clearing the area by 00-01Z, with a return to afternoon convection after 17Z tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 76 90 / 30 60 10 70 MCO 74 91 76 92 / 40 80 20 80 MLB 76 90 78 89 / 40 70 20 70 VRB 73 90 75 90 / 40 70 20 70 LEE 74 90 76 92 / 40 80 20 80 SFB 74 91 76 93 / 40 70 20 80 ORL 74 91 76 93 / 40 80 20 80 FPR 73 89 75 89 / 40 70 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Schaper