Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 031352
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
953 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...H9 LOW CENTER WILL PUSH EAST OFF THE GA COAST TODAY WITH
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. MODELS FORECAST A
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER ABOVE 700 MBS AND WARM MID LEVELS TEMPS WHICH
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD PUSH INLAND SLOWLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY PROVIDE
A LATE AFTERNOON FOCUS FOR STORMS. HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO
INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MOVING EAST ACROSS NRN AREAS MAINLY FROM
ORLANDO NORTHWARD AND THE POSSIBLY OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR EARLY EVENING STORMS ACROSS NRN
AREAS AGAIN MAINLY FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING. NUDGED
POPS UP JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE NRN INTERIOR TO 40 PCT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH THE LOW LEVEL WEST FLOW BEFORE THE
SEA BREEZE DROP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...TERMINALS INCLUDE VCTS THIS AFTN WITH ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN AREAS NORTH OF KISM-KTIX
FROM 18Z-22Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST
BRZ FROM KDAB-KSUA BTWN 19Z-24Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS AS A WEAK TROF ALONG
THE SERN SEABOARD/NE FL COMBINES WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF A WEAK
ATLC RIDGE TO GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE SW/W BREEZE OVER THE LCL
ATLC THIS MORNING. WINDS BCMG ESE/SE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN AS
THE SEABREEZE DVLPS. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS/AVIATION...VOLKMER
IMPACT WX/RADAR/DSS...WEITLICH



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