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854
FXUS62 KMLB 250241
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1040 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Active weather day as strong heating combined with low level jet and
ample moisture to produce widespread rain/storms with strong
downburst winds. The atmosphere stabilized significantly with
passage of the squall line from NW-SE but the cold front remains to
the NW across the eastern FL panhandle and eastern Gulf of Mexico
late this evening. The front is forecast to surge into central FL by
daybreak and additional showers and isolated storms are expected to
redevelop ahead of it. The best chance will be across northern
sections, north of a line from Kissimmee-Cape. Given the strong wind
fields that remain just above the surface, it will not be difficult
to transport gusty winds of 40-50 mph down to the surface in
convection. While the threat for severe weather has decreased
significantly from earlier today, a few strong storms will be
possible toward morning across the north.


Thu (previous)...Likely to be ongoing scattered convection across
the area at sunrise. The broad/deep upper trough over the eastern
CONUS/FL Peninsula will gradually lift northeastward through the day
leaving zonal flow in its wake across ECFL. This trough will push a
weak cool frontal boundary south across the area and into the
southern peninsula by evening. Much drier deep layer air will filter
down the peninsula behind the boundary. Ahead of the boundary,
however, showery precipitation expected along the I-4 corridor with
ISOLD-SCT storms still possible southward, but expect improving
conditions areawide from north to south thru late day. The Storms
Prediction Center currently keeps us with general thunder mention
for this day, though a few strong storms over the Treasure Coast and
southward cannot be ruled out. For PoPs generally a 20-30pct chance
near I-4 and northward with 40-70pct tapered southward through
Martin County. Highs generally recover into the 80s areawide with L-
M80s north and U80s south. Again, another day with breezy/gusty
westerly flow across ECFL.

&&

.AVIATION...S/SW winds will increase again overnight 15 knots with
higher gusts. Additional showers and isolated storms should
redevelop across the northern terminals and downburst winds of 35 to
40 knots will be possible.

On Thu...gusty west winds will occur esp in the morning with
greatest shower/storm threat south of a ISM-MLB line as the strong
cold front traverses the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Thu...SW/WSW winds of 20-25 kts and gusty will become more westerly
in the afternoon with greatest shower/storm threat south of the Cape
from the morning thru the afternoon. Small Craft Advisories continue
areawide thru late afternoon. Seas will build to 6-9 ft offshore and
4-6 ft near shore. A gradual improvement for winds/seas will occur
late Thu afternoon thru Thu night.


&&

.CLIMATE...Melbourne broke its record high for today at 96 degrees.
The old record was 95 degrees (2000). Vero Beach also broke its
record high for today at 95 degrees. The old record was 94 degrees
(2005).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  84  61  87 /  70  20   0   0
MCO  70  85  63  89 /  70  20   0   0
MLB  73  90  63  87 /  60  40   0   0
VRB  75  89  64  87 /  60  50   0   0
LEE  71  85  64  90 /  60  20   0   0
SFB  70  86  63  90 /  70  20   0   0
ORL  71  85  66  91 /  70  20   0   0
FPR  76  90  63  89 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.

AM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 4 PM EDT Thursday from
     Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for winds and seas until 4 PM EDT
     Thursday from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Kelly/Ulrich