Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 300732
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
332 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017
...Long period east swells will keep the rip current risk
moderate at east coast beaches...
...Developing rain chance Friday...
Current...Water vapor imagery continues to show fairly dry
conditions aloft as mid-level shortwave ridging resides over the FL
peninsula. Weak surface high pressure ridging extends east-west
across the south-central FL peninsula. PCloudy to MClear skies early
this morning with mild temperatures in the 60s, light winds and
conditions dry. A small threat does exist early on for some shallow,
patchy fog in prone locations, but this should be brief. Occasional
visibility issues will exist on roadways near ongoing active and
Today-Tonight...Shortwave ridging will move eastward away from the
FL peninsula through the day as energy associated with an upper low
over the central CONUS swings eastward over the GOMEX tonight ending
up near the WCFL coast by sunrise Fri morning. At the surface, the
weak high pressure center near the northeast Bahamas weakens and
ventures further east into the western Atlc. This will allow for a
weakening frontal trough to move east and extend from the FL
Panhandle through the eastern Gulf by sunrise Fri morning. Light and
variable morning winds will become SE/S and increase to 7-12 mph
over the interior and near 15 mph along the Space/Treasure coasts.
Expect another collision early this evening again across the
interior of both east/west sea breeze boundaries. Still inclined to
keep pcpn out of the forecast as both instability/moisture, while
gradually increasing, will still not be enough to ignite convection.
Having said that, the greatest threat to see a late day or early
evening pop-up shower would be north and west of I-4. Chances remain
10 percent or less. The gradually increasing moisture levels should
produce a healthy field of cumulus today.
Continued warm with afternoon highs generally in the M80s along the
coast and generally U80s to near 90 degrees inland. Overnight lows
continue mild and mainly in the 60s with some U50s possible inland
across normally cooler locales. Winds become light southerly tonight.
There will remain a potential for shallow, patchy fog overnight
generally well inland near prone areas. Still a concern remains if
any smoke from lingering brush fires mixes with fog and leads to
localized reduced visibilities on some roadways late tonight into
early morning Fri.
Fri-Sun...Strong disturbance responsible for organized convection
across the MS valley this morning will near the area during Fri.
The feature will have weakened somewhat by the time it closes in
on the area, and a less favorable setup due to lower avbl moisture
will lead to no higher than sct shower and afternoon storm chcs.
A jet level wind maxima of 110 to 120 kt along with cooler mid
level temps (-11C @ H5) will accompany the feature during Fri and
this should partially offset lingering dryness vertically. Showers
and any storms are expected to exit to the Atlc waters Fri
evening with high pressure building in for the weekend. Warm days
and mild night time conditions can be expected this weekend with
no notable airmass change ascd with the passage of the disturbance
Extended...A progressive pattern is shown during the period as
another disturbance is shown apchg the area Mon. This feature
continues to be more defined with sct storms possible over the
peninsula Monday and ending Monday night. Sct rain coverage is
indicated for the period attm through Tue then becoming isold at
midweek. One final disturbance passing for the week around
Thursday may bring showers or a storm.
Continued VFR thru the period. Will monitor early this morning
for shallow, patchy fog producing MVFR vsby`s for a brief time.
Locally reduced visibilities will again be possible near any
active/smoldering fires. Light/variable winds will become SE/S
increasing to 6-12 kts inland/Volusia coast and near 15 kts along
the immediate Space/Treasure coasts. The ECSB will venture inland
again this afternoon/early evening. Winds will be light southerly
this evening/overnight. Increasing low-level moisture will spell
more Cu development today and perhaps an ISOLD late day/early
evening -shra north/west of I-4, but coverage/confidence not high
enough for inclusion of vicinity shower or a tempo group for any
TAFs at this time.
Today-Tonight...Already weak high pressure ridging over
the south-central FL peninsula will continue to weaken today while
the high pressure center near the NE Bahamas slips further eastward
into the western Atlc. Early morning light offshore flow will back
to S/SE and increase to 10-15 kts over the waters thru the day and
continue to increase to 15-20 kts over the open Atlc tonight. If
this holds true, cautionary statements will be necessary for small
craft this evening/overnight offshore. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-
4 ft offshore today in a persistent long period easterly swell. The
increasing winds will build seas tonight to 3-4 ft near shore and 4-
5 ft offshore (north of Sebastian Inlet). Seas may build toward 6 ft
well offshore and north of the Cape after midnight.
Fri-Weekend...Brisk SW flow will bring higher sea state to the
outer waters with lower seas along the immediate coast. Caution
stmts may be req`d for at least the outer waters during Fri as
disturbance and any ascd pcpn moves over the region. Conditions
favorable for boating Sat and Sun with high pressure close to the
area. Seas 2-4 ft.
Another breezy day expected Monday with apch of next weather
system Caution stmt may be required for a portion of the waters
mainly due to increasing winds.
.FIRE WEATHER...Today...High pressure`s hold across the area will
gradually weaken as it drifts further into the western Atlc. Should
see an increased Cumulus field today as low-level moisture gradually
deepens. Light/variable early morning winds will become SE/S and
increase to 6-12 mph over the interior/Volusia coast and near 15 mph
along the Space/Treasure coasts. Dispersion values will be higher
today than recent days, at the high end of "generally good". Lowest
min RH values again this afternoon will be found well inland (30-
35pct) for at least a few hours. Localized vsby issues possible due
to smoke from any active/ongoing burns.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 66 87 62 / 10 10 30 10
MCO 88 66 87 62 / 0 0 40 10
MLB 84 67 86 66 / 0 10 30 10
VRB 84 67 87 64 / 0 10 30 10
LEE 86 67 85 64 / 10 10 40 10
SFB 87 66 85 61 / 10 10 30 10
ORL 87 67 86 64 / 0 0 40 10
FPR 84 65 86 62 / 0 10 30 20