Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 261119
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
619 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Sat Night)

Monitoring regional radar mosiac trends as an area of light to
moderate showers is moving across the Cumberland Plateau Region
during these early morning hours,but should generally be east of
the plateau region by press time. Clearing noted per most recent
surface obs and satellite imagery across western and central
portions of the mid state, and, with especially northwest portions
of the area receiving rainfall yesterday, winds relative calm, and
favorable dewpoint depressions, some patchy fog could form across
this area, as well as other areas across the mid state that
experienced rainfall yesterday, and possibly near bodies of water
and other usual fog prone locations. Thus mentioned patchy fog
through the mid morning hours today in these locations.

Any way that you slice or dice it or toss or turn it, weather
pattern from the mid morning hours onward thru Saturday night will
be marked by warm and humid weather conditions, with surface
Bermuda high pressure influences continuing to provide the warm
and unstable air mass to the mid state, and also developing swly
flow aloft with embedded multiple weak shortwaves passages. With
no really significant focusing mechanics in place, will continue
to rely on outflow boundaries from previous convection, diurnal
heating and orographic influences, with the overall best chance
for showers and thunderstorms being across northwest portions of
the mid state per proximity to best expected upper level week
shortwave passages. Thus,the best chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be from the late morning hours thru the early
evening hours today thru Sat night. Model consensus on a whole
seems to be a little drier than previous mornings model solutions
at this time, and seems to have alleviated any previously
concerns about significant model convective feedback issues. Looks
like the best chance for at least more cloud coverage across the
mid state will be Friday night and into Saturday as an upper level
low moves from the Central Plains into the Upper MS River Valley,
enhancing the moisture stream across the mid state at least in the
mid to upper levels, however the best chance for showers and
thunderstorms will still generally be across western and
northwestern portions of the mid state.

As still remains the case, no organized severe weather or
flooding potential is expected across the mid state. Mainly light
to moderate showers and thunderstorms are expected, although it
is certainly not out of the question that some thunderstorms could
reach strong thresholds, with one or two reaching severe
thresholds thru Sat night. It is also possible that some isolated
locally heavy rainfall might also occur with the stronger thunderstorms,
but only ponding of water potential and potentially minor flooding
of usual low lying flood prone areas is expected at this time
with these types of storms.

As for temps, still trending 5 to 8 degrees above seasonal values
today thru Saturday night. Highs today and Friday will be in the
mid to upper 80s, lower 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. A little
cooler on Saturday with some increased cloud coverage potential,
but highs will still remain seasonable warm, in the mid 80s,
around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows during this time period
will generally span the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Sun thru Wed)

The air mass over Mid TN early next week will be warm and humid.
Temperatures will be in the 60s at night, with daytime highs in the
mid to upper 80s, except lower 80s Plateau. These numbers are 5-8
degrees above normal. An upper ridge will be in place, but the ridge
looks weak. A few showers and storms will develop each day, mainly in
the mid to late afternoon hours. There are no apparent features that
would cause organized convection, so pops will be mostly in the 20-30
percent range. There continues to be potential for a tropical system
coming into the southeast states and up the east coast, but at this
time, models keep impacts east of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A band of showers will move east of CSV early this morning. There
may be brief residual BR for CSV at 12Z, but generally, all Mid
TN sites should be VFR this morning with south winds 5-8kt. A few
TSRA may develop this afternoon, but nothing widespread or
organized, so not mentioning in TAFs at this time.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13



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