Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 221430
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
930 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY WARMING THROUGH THE 80S PER LATEST OBS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...AND A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS
ON TAP WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT WELL INTO THE 90S
UP TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. POPS MAY BE A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER
SOUTH AND EAST ZONES BASED ON LATEST HRRR RUNS BUT WILL LEAVE AS
IS FOR NOW.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA IMPACTS WILL BE AT
KCSV. INCLUDED VCTS AGAIN AS LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCLEAR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
MID STATE BUT SHOULD STAY AT VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONLY
OBSTRUCTIONS WOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG TOWARD THE MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH NEAR THE FL
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS HELPED TO
PROLONG THE NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. ACROSS
MIDDLE TN...BROKEN CLOUDINESS STILL PERSISTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH PCLDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UPPER TROUGHING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXPANSION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S.. THE PATTERN OVER THE MID STATE WILL THEN MORPH INTO MORE OF A
ROBUST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL MAKE IT JUST SOUTH OF TN
BY THURSDAY.

SO FOR THE FCST...LOW CONVECTION CHANCES FOR TODAY AS THE WEAKENING
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EXERT SOME INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA. POPS
WILL INCREASE WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR THE NEAR TERM
TEMPS...QUITE WARM TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS
INCREASE...COMPLIMENTS OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST.
WE`LL COOL THINGS OFF BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

IN THE EXT FCST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DESCENT SHOT OF RAIN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE MID STATE ON MONDAY WITH A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH INDICATED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S..

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...WARM AGAIN THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEWPOINTS ARE LOOKING VERY PLEASANT FOR LATE JULY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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