Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 281058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
558 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016




Fog has begun to develop over the region, with areas on the
Plateau and near the TN/KY border seeing 1/2 mile visibility
early this morning so far. Have fog mentioned in the forecast, but
may need to put out a SPS should development become more

Above average temperatures will continue over the next week, with
record high temperatures possible this weekend. Saturday still
looks to be the warmest day with the upper level high overhead,
southwest flow in the low levels, and continued dry conditions.
Right now have 85 for a high Saturday afternoon which would break
the record of 83 set back in 1950. High ensemble members of the
GFS and ECMWF have 83 and 89 respectively, so would not be
surprised to see 85 or even slightly higher on Saturday. Sunday
may be just a degree or two cooler, but the record for Nashville
is 86 on Sunday so we may come up just short. However, if high
temperatures trend upward from guidance (which has been the
tendency during this warm period) Sunday`s record high temperature
may even be possible to hit. For now, have a high of 84 in the
forecast Sunday.

With little change to the upper level pattern Monday, highs in the
low to mid 80s again will be possible and more record highs may be
hit/broken. The GFS does have a small shortwave quickly moving
through the upper flow Sunday afternoon/evening, but looks to be
on track with the ECMWF solution by Monday afternoon. Both models
have similar solutions until mid day Thursday with an approaching
upper trough from the north. The ECMWF is a bit more aggressive
and places precip over the mid state late Thursday into Friday,
while the GFS has a weaker wave and thus little precip chances for
the mid state. Went with more of a consensus forecast for Thursday
afternoon placing some slight chance pops over eastern zones.
Model solutions in the extended for this timeframe have been very
erratic so not placing much confidence in any solution just yet in
regards to precip chances. Both models, however, do have some
cooler air moving in behind the passing trough, so temperatures
closer to seasonal normals of highs in the upper 60s may arrive
next weekend.



Dense morning fog will dissipate by 9 am C.D.T. this morning with
vfr conditions remainder of the forecast period. Upper ridge
will build across our area today while surface ridge builds
across the southeastern US.






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