Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 231131
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
631 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today-Fri Night)

Will be monitoring up close to press time the potential of patchy
fog development across areas where cloud coverage erosion has
already occurred earlier this morning. This per favorable
dewpoint depressions and light to calm winds as of 23/08Z.
Otherwise expect skies to continue to slowly clr from NW to SE
across other portions of the mid state region thru the remainder
of the morning hrs. Sfc front bisecting mid state as of 23/08Z
south of a Westmoreland to Nashville to Clifton line, will
continue pushing swd and out of the mid state region by no later
than the mid morning hrs today. There might be a slight chance for
the development of an iso light shwr or tstm this morning within
sfc frontal vcnty passage/850mb frontal passage just lagging
slightly behind it. But this will be the last chance of potential
rainfall in the forecast thru Fri night. A broad sfc high pressure
pattern will become established across the ern contiguous U.S.,
with reinforcing high pressure air masses coming down from cntrl
Canada Thu and again on Fri. A rather dry nwly flow pattern will
become establish across the mid state region as today progress
into at least Thu night. Upper level pattern will become quasi
zonal to quasi nwly Fri into Fri night. As a result, after
morning cloudiness leaves, moclr to ptcldy skies with dry and
less humid conditions expected today thru Fri night.

As for temps, the series of 1020mb - 1024mb reinforcing sfc high
pressure systems will result in the end of the seasonably warm wx
pattern the mid state has been experiencing lately. Overall, went
with a consensus model/Superblend lean for forecasted afternoon
highs and overnight lows thru Fri night. Afternoon highs today
will only be in the lower 80s, upper 70s to around 80 Cumberland
Plateau Region. Overnight lows tonight will mainly be in the lower
60s, but upper 50s to around 60 degree across the higher elevations
of the mid state including the Cumberland Plateau Region. Not
expecting afternoon high values Thu and Fri or overnight lows
Thu night and Fri night to differ much from those expected
today/tonight.

31

.LONG TERM...
(Sat-Tue)

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected this weekend with a big
ridge out west and a trough over the eastern states. The extended
forecast will begin with nice wx Saturday. There will be only a
small chance for showers over our southeast counties. Otherwise, it
will be partly sunny with highs mostly in the lower 80s. Saturday
night will be partly cloudy with lows in the lower 60s. On Sunday,
shower chances will increase slightly across the area as humidity
levels creep upward. Temps will still be decent for this time of
year, with highs in the low to mid 80s.

After Sunday, there will be a trend toward increasingly unsettled
and potentially very wet wx by midweek-all dependent on the
remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey.

Currently, the remnants of Harvey are moving toward the western
Gulf of Mexico, with redevelopment to TS status expected. This
pattern is likely to bring a heavy rainfall event to the TX/LA
Gulf Coast this weekend. After that, operational models vary
considerably on the progress, but GFS and Euro ensembles point
toward a stall along the Gulf Coast through at least Monday, then
a drift northeastward toward the TN Valley through midweek. This
will bring us higher rain chances toward midweek, but not nearly
the high impact heavy rainfall expected along the TX/LA coast.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Low clouds associated with early morning frontal passage will
cause MVFR or brief IFR to linger through 14Z at MQY and CSV.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours as dry high
pressure begins to move into the area. Scattered cumulus and thin
patchy cirrus clouds will be seen today with NNW winds near 10KT.
Tonight will bring light N winds and SKC. Patchy late night
ground fog is possible, especially for CSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13



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