Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 190509
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1109 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Area of precipitation associated with an inverted trough situated
to our west remains far upstream, and the HRRR doesn`t bring the
bulk of this activity into Middle Tennessee until after 06Z. Have
therefore made some adjustments to POP`s, mainly reducing the
categorical area in southwest Middle Tennessee to likely. Have
also removed mention of thunderstorms prior to 12Z given the
current lack of instability and the dearth of instability showing
up on the forecast soundings the remainder of the night.
Otherwise, the hourly grids are holding up reasonably well, and no
other changes to the forecast are currently planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR flight rules are expected for the next couple of hours,
however, we`re going to be on a sharp downslope of categories
through the morning hours. Look for LIFR flight rules to settle
into all 3 terminals, KBNA/KCKV by 18Z and KCSV a little later,
along with reduced visibility as rains pick up in intensity. These
conditions are likely to remain throughout the afternoon and
overnight hours Thursday into Friday. Have decided to leave out
mention of TS for now as coverage could be very limited. These may
need to be added in with future issuances.

Winds will be light, shifting from the southeast to the south
throughout the daylight hours on Thursday.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........Unger


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