Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 260009 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
709 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
PER REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR
MOST ERN PLATEAU COUNTIES THRU THE EVENING HRS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINDER OF MID STATE. BELIEVE WITH WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THRU THE FIRST FEW HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO.
NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD APPROACH THE TN RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED
/DIRECTION GRIDS. HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY...
INCLUDING REMOVING THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE. ONE WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WAS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF MID TN THIS EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE...SO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BR CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY. S WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...AROUND 08KT OVERNIGHT...AND 10G22KT TUESDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
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