Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 061850
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
150 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LITTLE ROCK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COOL NORTH WIND AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ROTATING THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY
WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WE`VE ENJOYED, DESPITE THE LACK OF WARM
ADVECTION, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER TOMORROW EVEN
THOUGH WE PROBABLY WON`T SEE ANY ACTUAL RETURN FLOW UNTIL SUNDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP JUST TO OUR NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM TO AFFECT US WILL BRING CONVECTION
TO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT RUSHES OUT AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE FRONT DECELERATING, SO WE PROBABLY WON`T SEE
FROPA UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO (GFS). MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW GOOD
INSTABILITY (HIGH CAPE`S, LOW LI`S) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH WE AREN`T OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS BY THE SPC IN THE
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR US TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS BASED ON THE INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THIS IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL
CYCLES. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, SO WE CAN EXPECT A THOROUGHLY
WET WEEK FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATTERN IS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, LOOK FOR THE UPPER FLOW TO FLATTEN OUT SOME NEXT
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE LOW 60`S/LOW 80`S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 07/18Z.

SFC WINDS WILL BE A TAD GUSTY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, BLOWING
OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND OUT OF THE WEST ON SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  83  61  84  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    51  81  60  80  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     47  77  58  78  59 /  10  10  10  10  10
COLUMBIA       49  81  60  82  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   49  81  58  82  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
WAVERLY        51  81  59  81  62 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................08


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