Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 011937
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
237 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper closed low that has been providing showers and cloud cover
over the past few days continues to impact the region. Showers
today have mainly stayed north of the area, but still have chances
for showers in this afternoon. Overnight, chances for fog
development again looks likely as conditions will be similar to
the past few nights/mornings. Short term models are highlighting
areas north of I-40 mainly again for fog development by the early
morning on Sunday.

The upper low will continue its way northward Sunday and into
Monday, which should bring in drier conditions and eventually
clear skies. The ECMWF and the NAM have a slight shortwave
disturbance in the upper flow that may bring some isolated showers
during the day Sunday, so went ahead and added back in mention of
showers for northern zones Sunday afternoon. By Monday, upper
ridging begins to move in and will start a warming trend with
temperatures as well as dry weather. Above average temperatures
will return to the mid state by Tuesday and continue through
Thursday.

Next chance for rain looked to be on Thursday, but the 12Z ECMWF
backed off on the speed of the Great Plains trough approaching the
region. It now has precip more during the Friday and early
Saturday timeframe, while the GFS finally has the trough and
associated front moving into the region Saturday with some light
precip chances. Kept precip chances similar to the previous
forecast as long term models are varying quite a bit between runs.
Outside of the precip chances, CAA behind the front and trough is
quite strong, which will again bring temperatures cooler than
seasonal averages by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

With upper level low expected to drift slowly NWD and then NEWD
thru 02/18Z, believe that lower level wrap around moisture
associated with this upper level feature will persist across the
mid state region thru 02/18Z too. Will continue with persistence
of MVFR ceilings at all terminals, with a greater chance of
ceilings lowering to the lower thresholds of MVFR ceiling
criteria. Could not rule out the possibility of temp fluctuations
to IFR also between 02/09Z-02/15Z. Generally light surface W winds
will transition to NLY as sfc high pressure influences drift EWD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      57  76  56  79  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    56  74  54  76  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
Crossville     52  73  53  75  55 /   0  10   0   0   0
Columbia       55  76  55  78  55 /   0  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   55  76  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waverly        55  74  55  76  56 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........31



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