Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 260543
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
143 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the area tonight into Wednesday and
then offshore late in the day. A frontal system moves through
the area Thursday into Thursday night, with low pressure
passing to the south on Friday. Another low will pass to the
south on Saturday while high pressure builds from the north
across the area. High pressure continues to build into the area
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track as relatively tranquil period is on
tap through Wednesday night as an upper trough moves offshore
tonight and short wave ridging builds in from the west.

At the surface, high pressure builds in from the NW tonight
with a continued light N/NE flow. Skies will also gradually
clear during this time with a strong mid level subsidence
inversion.

Conditions will be mostly dry with dew points in the 50s and
unseasonably cool temperatures. Lows tonight will range from
the mid 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Quiet during this period with high pressure moving across the
area in the morning and then offshore in the afternoon/early
evening hours. Temperatures will be below seasonable with low
humidity. NE winds Wednesday morning veer around to the SE as
the high moves offshore.

Clouds will increase late Wednesday night as a warm front
approaches from the SW and low pressure moves into the Ohio
Valley.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches
on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase
through late week as a potent short wave approaches the area.
Humidity will continue to increase as well through the day on
Thursday amidst warm/moist advection in southerly flow ahead of the
developing low pressure system. Both high and low temperatures will
be closer to normal. By Friday, confidence is low on the exact track
of the low pressure system with models currently trending southward
with the axis of heaviest rainfall. The exact track has implications
on temperature/wind/dew point forecasts, etc, though with the idea
that the track will be somewhat south compared to previous runs,
have trended a little cooler with the high temperature forecast as
north-northeasterly flow advects colder air into the area. This
system will need to be monitored for the potential for heavy
rainfall (see hydrology section for more information). For the
weekend into early next week, any lingering chance of precipitation
Saturday morning will quickly diminish as high pressure builds
southward, bringing lower humidity and more seasonable temperature
values.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds over the area this morning before sliding
offshore this evening.

Lingering MVFR ceilings early this morning from the city
terminals north and west should improve to VFR over the next
several hours with the exception of KSWF, where MVFR ceilings
are expected to linger until around daybreak. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions expected through the TAF period.

NE winds will become light and variable outside of the city
overnight before shifting to the SE-SSE beginning mid to late
Wednesday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night...VFR.
.Thursday-Thursday night...MVFR possible, with a chance of
showers and possibly a tstm. S-SW winds G15-20kt possible.
.Friday...VFR.
.Friday night-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible, with showers
and possibly a tstm. NE winds G15-25kt possible.
.Saturday night-Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions are on tap through Wednesday night as high
pressure builds across the waters through tomorrow and then east
tomorrow night.

Winds and seas may gradually build to SCA levels late week into
the weekend as a series of low pressure centers move to the
south of the waters, strengthening north- northeasterly flow.
Confidence in wave heights this weekend remains low at the
moment. Seas and any remaining swells should gradually subside
into next week as high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall is possible Thursday night into Friday, with a low
chance for urban and poor drainage flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical high tides continue to run high, especially during
the high tide cycle at night. Along the south shore bays of
Nassau and Queens, less than a foot departure is needed to reach
minor flooding thresholds. Departures there should run 1 to 1 1/2
feet above normal. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect
for these areas for tonight`s high tide cycle, with a coastal
flood statement for locations adjacent to Lower New York Harbor
for localized minor coastal flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...BC/MD/DW
HYDROLOGY...MD/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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