Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 301957 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain in between high pressure to the northeast
and low pressure to the southwest through the weekend. The low
then slowly weakens as it moves towards the region Monday as high
pressure builds in from the north. This high will then continue to
nose down into the region through the middle of the week, then
retreat to the northeast by the end of the upcoming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A closed upper low remains near the Lower Great Lakes as a surface
front remains to the south and west. With the set up remaining
basically the same as today, expect more the same tonight -
scattered to intermittent showers. Could possibly even just end up
with periods of drizzle depending on exactly how things end up
playing out.

Gusty NE winds gradually diminish through the night.

Temperatures should not fall too much from todays highs, maybe 5
degrees or so for coastal/urban areas and up to 10 degrees in
higher elevations. This is consistent with a blend of MAV/MET/ECS
guidance and NAM 2-meter temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The closed low tracks into Upstate New York through Saturday night
as it gradually opens into a trough. Showers will become more
spotty with time, so only have chance pops both periods.

Highs Saturday were based on a blend of MET/MAV/ECS guidance, NAM
2-meter temperatures and a mix down from 975 hPa per BUFKIT
soundings. Highs should be around 5 degrees below normal.

Lows Saturday night were based on a blend of ECS/MET/MAV guidance
and NAM 2-meter temperatures with values forecast to be a few
degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models coming into better agreement with stacked cutoff low
pressure, sitting over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday, to
slowly open and move through the northeast Monday and Tuesday as
stubborn Western Atlantic ridging weakens and slides SE a bit.

At the surface, stacked low pressure sitting over the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes, with its warm front running from the Mid
Atlantic and well southeast of LI, will gradually wash out as it
moves east Sunday into Monday in response to the the upper level
energy. With the main moisture/llj axis weakening and lifting NE
of the region by Sunday, and most of the moisture relegated to
the low-levels, would expected mainly drizzle or scattered light
shower activity activity on Sunday into Sunday Night.

For Mon/Tue, although low-levels should continue to dry, as upper
trough energy moves overhead, diurnal iso-sct shower activity
possible with cold pool/diurnal instability interacting with
residual moisture.

Thereafter, models in good agreement with deep layered ridging
developing for mid to late week with region experiencing a
Canadian Maritime airmass. Meanwhile, the evolution of Hurricane
Matthew will be closely monitored, with forecast sensitivity tied
to the evolution of upper energy as it moves offshore the east
coast mid to late week, the mid to late week evolution of the
trough energy coming into the West Coast this weekend, and the
development of Matthew itself. Refer to the National Hurricane
center forecasts for the latest information.

Temps near or slightly below seasonable through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The terminals will remain between high pressure to the northeast and
low pressure to the southwest through Saturday.

Mainly MVFR conditions this afternoon and evening with some pockets
of IFR in ceilings and/or visibilities. Most terminals will then
prevail IFR after 00z. -SHRA will continue into the evening, but the
coverage should become scattered overnight. Flight categories
improve to MVFR after 12z Saturday with -SHRA redeveloping mid to
late morning.

NE winds through the TAF period. Gusts 25-30 KT at city/coastal
terminals and 20-25 KT at inland terminals. Highest gusts expected
through this evening before diminishing overnight.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through
this evening. A few gusts up to 30 kt possible through around 00z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through
this evening. A few gusts up to 30 kt possible through around 00z.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through
this evening.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through
this evening. Gusts may be more occasional than indicated.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through
this evening. Gusts may be more occasional than indicated.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for flight categories through
this evening. A few gusts up to 30 kt possible through around 00z.

.Outlook for 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...
.Saturday afternoon...IFR/MVFR in rain.
.Saturday Night-Sunday Night...MVFR or lower possible with showers.
.Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR with isolated to scattered showers
possible.
.Wednesday...VFR. NE gusts 20-25 kt near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale gusts should continue into early evening (for all but NY
Harbor), so have left Gale Warning as is, expiring at 00z. Might
need to extended it a few hours for ANZ-350, but confidence is not
high enough to do so at this time. Gales will need to be replaced
with an SCA, joining that already up for NY Harbor for tonight.

Small craft gusts could last into Saturday morning for Eastern
Long Island Sound, the Eastern Bays of Long Island and the Coastal
Ocean Waters. Seas to at least 5 feet could linger on the coastal
ocean waters through Saturday night. Sub small craft conditions
expected on the remainder of the waters through Saturday night.

Conditions fall below SCA levels by Sunday as easterly flow
weakens and seas subside. These sub-SCA conditions are expected
through early next week under a weak pressure gradient.

Seas on the ocean waters likely start to increase mid week with a
persistent northeast flow, but there is still some uncertainty on
timing/magnitude.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.5 to 1 inches of rain is forecast to fall through Saturday night,
with locally higher amounts possible. Little or no hydrologic
impact is expected.

No significant rainfall is then expected into the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Although wind fields weaken by the high tide this evening,
widespread minor flooding continues to be a concern for the south
shore of Nassau and Southwestern Suffolk counties where departures
of 1.5-2 feet should cause minor coastal flooding. Across Lower
NY Harbor, including associated tributaries in NE NJ, and the
Southern Bays of Queens and Brooklyn, there is the potential for
isolated minor coastal flooding, as the benchmark could be just
reached with departures of around 1.5 ft expected. A coastal flood
statement has been issued for these areas for this evenings high
tide.

Additionally, a persistent easterly sweep of 6 to 10 ft surf
tonight will likely result in minor to moderate beach erosion
issues at the the ocean beachfront.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
     179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-335-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Maloit/NV
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Maloit



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