Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 020241
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL PASS TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS MAY THEN IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DRYING MID LEVELS
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF NYC METRO/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE
NJ. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SE CT AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LI. STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND A
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LLJ WILL SEND THE RAIN BAND WEST-SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEGINNING TO TRACK WESTWARD AND SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GET AS FAR WEST AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE
NJ...BUT THE FORCING LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE 18Z GFS AND 02/00Z NAM ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE ACROSS
EASTERN LI AND SE CT...WITH A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THE SREF AND GEFS SUPPORT THE OPERATIONS RUNS...BUT ARE
NOT AS FAR WEST WITH THE RAIN SHIELD.

THE CLOUD COVER...NORTHERLY FLOW...AND RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL KEEP LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A DISSIPATING RAIN BAND IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF LI DURING THE
MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A N/NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.
EXPECT OVERCAST CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT. GUSTY NE WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RETROGRADES
BRIEFLY WESTWARD THU MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC THU NIGHT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NE.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THU WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
THU NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S AT THE
COAST. THIS IS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIPRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE WX DRY ON FRI.
WEIGHTED TEMPS TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM12 AND MET GUIDANCE TO THE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MARITIME AIRMASS. UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN AB
WILL DRAW A CDFNT THRU SAT. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH AROUND AN INCH LIKELY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BUILDING PW/S TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. PW/S DROP TO BLW A
HALF INCH SUN AND H85 TEMPS FALL 10C. DRY...BREEZY AND COOLER IS
THEREFORE THE FCST. CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE UPR 50S...SO SCT FAIR WX
CU POSSIBLE DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE. SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS MON AND
TUE WITH A 520S DAM H5 LOW SETTING UP OVER WRN ON. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT LOW RAIN CHC WITH THIS...SO RETAINED A 20-30 POP.
BEST CHC WILL BE WITH THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE
AROUND TUE-WED. TEMPS SUN-WED A BLEND OF THE GMOS/MEX/MEN AND 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE OF THE
REGION THURSDAY.

A MOIST LOW LEVEL N/NE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
LIKELY FROM NW TO SE THU AFT/EVE AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS.

BANDS OF -RA DZ WILL CONTINUE OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...OCCASIONALLY AFFECTING WESTERN TERMINALS
BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z. CONDS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR/IFR IN ANY
OF THIS ACTIVITY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL LIKELY VARY ACROSS THE 040 MAG
DIRECTION THROUGH THU MORN FOR METRO TERMINALS. WINDS INCREASE ON
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT...OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20KT IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...VFR. LGT SE WND.
.SAT...RAIN - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 15-20 KT.
.SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN WITH SEAS UP TO
5 TO 7 FT AT 02Z. THE SCA CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS...WITH THE
OCEAN WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE SOUND AND
SURROUNDING LI BAYS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THU. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF N/NE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SEAS OF 7 TO 10
FT ON THE OCEAN AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE THU MORNING INTO THE AFT, CONDITIONS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE FROM THE NORTH. EVEN
THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT WITH A LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA COND CAN BE EXPECTED FRI THRU NEXT WED...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF RESPITE FOR PORTIONS OF MON. ELSEWHERE...25KT
WINDS POSSIBLE SAT-SUN BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A CDFNT. OTHERWISE
THEY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-20KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT INTO THU ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE ACROSS NEW LONDON COUNTY CT LATE TONIGHT. AREAS TO THE
WEST WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE ON SAT. A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...







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