Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 310626
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
226 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes early this morning. High pressure then
builds down from southeastern Canada from Tuesday through
Thursday, then retreats to the northeast Thursday night. A cold
front approaches from the west on Friday, then moves across the
region early this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Dissipating narrow line of light showers was over central/eastern
Suffolk as of 06Z. Fog has dissipated...while low clouds should
linger from NYC east.

Cold front has entered Orange County, but will take all night if
not into the early daylight hours to reach NYC.

MOS blend for overnight lows with temps in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
It appears that weak surface front stalls and weakens nearby
Tuesday. Mid and upper level trough passes to the north across New
England during the day. Drier air will filter in from the northwest
as high pressure builds from canada.

In general, expect dry conditions with sunshine during the day, and
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies at night.

Daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, per MOS.

Lows Tuesday night should range from the 50s across the interior
to the mid 60s in and around NYC under better radiational cooling
conditions.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure on Wednesday results in a sunny day. With an onshore
flow and limited mixing depth, have gone close to superblend for
high temps as MET mos looked too warm and MAV mos looked too cool.
High pressure shifts farther east on Thursday but should still keep
all rain associated with the remnants of Bonnie well to our south.
Winds and mixing depth will be similar to Wednesday`s, but maybe a
little more in the way of cloud cover. High temp forecast is
therefore slightly cooler than Wednesday.

A slow-moving cold front then brings low chances of showers to
roughly the western half of the CWA. Better overall chances then
arrive Friday into Friday night as the front moves through, but pops
are capped at chance for now. Timing of the frontal passage is still
in question, but kept a slight chance of showers on Saturday.
Saturday could however end up being entirely dry across the area.
Enough CAPE is progged in the area to mention thunder Friday through
Saturday. Friday`s high temps look to be at or a couple degrees
below normal, with Saturday being a few degrees higher than normal.

Upper troughing over the region begins on Sunday and lasts into
Monday. This will help a broad surface low shift into the area
during this period. Whether or not a secondary surface low forms and
passes nearby is uncertain, but the parent low and associated fronts
present chances of rain/showers/thunderstorms during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will slowly move into the area through this morning
and then dissipate. High pressure will build from the NW tonight.

Cold front has passed KSWF, with light W flow and VFR conds.
Light SSW flow and MVFR cigs prevail east of the front, with IFR
cigs at KISP. Could see a period right before fropa where other
sites could also experience brief IFR cigs, then conds improve to
VFR from 12Z-15Z.

Winds should briefly become NW or N after fropa, then afternoon
sea breezes kick in close to usual times as the front washes out.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Late tonight through Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt.
.Thursday Night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conds.
.Friday through Saturday...Chance of showers/tstms with brief
MVFR conds.

&&

.MARINE...
Fog over the eastern waters will be dense. Dense fog advisory
continues through the entire night.

As a weak front approaches and stalls over the waters through
Tuesday, expect southerly winds to remain fairly light. Winds
turn to the north Tuesday night as high pressure builds.

For now, it appears that there will not be a significant enough
swell to bring seas to SCA levels through Tuesday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday with winds less than 20
kt and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft. An easterly wind increases on
Thursday, building seas up to 5 ft on the ocean along with some
gusts up to 25 kt possible. Winds then become lighter Thursday
night and Friday, however remain onshore. A lingering swell could
therefore prolong 5 ft seas into this period. Otherwise, sub-sca
conds are likely through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant rainfall is expected through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ330-340-345-350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW/DW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/PW



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