Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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925
FXUS61 KOKX 261320
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
920 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly retreats to the east through Wednesday as
Hurricane Maria tracks northeast off the Mid Atlantic Coast.
Refer to statements form the National Hurricane Center for the
latest on Maria. A cold front moves through the region
Wednesday night, followed by brief high pressure building in
from the west through late week. Another cold front passes
through Friday night, followed by high pressure settling in
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast remains on track this morning with fog lifting and
skies gradually clearing. Stratus, mainly east of the Hudson,
is expected to mix out by early afternoon leaving just thin
cirrus resulting a sunny afternoon.

High surf and rip current potential continues along the south
shore of Long Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Swells from Maria will continue to produce high, dangerous surf
through Wednesday and quite likely dangerous rip currents as
well, with swells progged to around 10 ft/14 seconds at 44025
and 10-11ft/14 seconds at 44017. As a result have extended the
high surf advisory for all Atlantic Beaches through 22z
Wednesday and have continued with the high rip current risk for
tonight.

Otherwise, the northern stream ridge axis exits to the northeast
and WSW flow sets up aloft for Wednesday. There could be a weak
700 hPa shortwave passing Wednesday afternoon, so have a slight
chance of showers then, otherwise it should be dry.

The fog/stratus deck should return tonight, and likely will be
more extensive than it was last night/early this morning. The
main thing that is unknown is how dense the fog will be/will
the area be more mainly just stratus. So for now playing things
as patchy fog, but definitely cannot rule out areas of dense
fog, especially over eastern areas. Lows tonight should be
around 10-15 degrees above normal.

This deck should be slower to erode on Wednesday than today. As
a result, even with low level temperatures forecast to be a
degree or so warmer than today, did not change high temperatures
much from today. Once again, continue to have a bust potential
on the low side (by 5-10 degrees) if the stratus deck does not
erode at all.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night. Meanwhile,
moisture associated with Maria tries to sneak in mainly over the
eastern zones. Will go with low chances of showers for most areas,
but focused more to the east of the city.

Aside from a lingering shower possible early in the morning in the
vicinity of the twin forks, Thursday should be dry as high pressure
builds in. Leaned towards the warmer side of guidance for high
temperatures based on forecast 850-900mb temps during the afternoon.
It will begin to feel less muggy as well with dewpoints falling to
around 50 by the end of the day. A return to seasonable temperatures
then follows for Friday as high pressure remains over the region.

Global models differ in the timing of the next cold front, but best
guess right now is that it moves through at some point during Friday
night with a slight chance of showers. An upper trough/cold pool
aloft follows for Saturday so some instability showers are possible.
Kept PoPs at slight chance for this. Highs for Saturday mostly 65-70.

High pressure continues to build in for Sunday and Monday with dry
weather and high temperatures generally around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weakening high pressure remains across the region through the
TAF period.

Flight categories primarily in the IFR/LIFR range with
visibilities gradually improving east of the city terminals.
Low ceilings will continue through 15-16z before improving to
VFR. KISP and KGON may take a bit longer to improve. Low
ceilings return tonight after 00z.

NE/E winds this morning and shift to the SE from the late
morning into early afternoon. Speeds will be 10 kt or less
through the day.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of improving conditions may be off by
up to 1-2 hours.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of improving conditions may be off by
up to 1-2 hours.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Could see brief IFR CIG through 15z,
otherwise VFR through the day.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of improving conditions may be off by
up to 1-2 hours.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of improving conditions may be off by
up to 1-2 hours.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of improving conditions may be off by
up to 2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR to IFR possible with patchy
fog and/or stratus and a low chance of showers.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible with isolated to
scattered shower activity.
.Thursday night-Friday...VFR.
.Friday night-Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR possible in
any showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Swells from Hurricane Maria will keep seas on the coastal ocean
waters at well above Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through
at least Wednesday night, so have extended the SCA for Hazardous
seas through then.

As far as winds go through Wednesday night, a light pressure
gradient over the region will limit winds to around 10 kt or
less through then.

Lingering swell from Maria will likely allow seas to remain at SCA
levels through late week before gradually subsiding this weekend as
high pressure builds from the north. Gusts Thursday will be up to
around 25 kt behind a cold front, but mainly on the ocean waters.
Still a chance that a SCA could be needed on some of the other
waters. Winds otherwise subside back below advisory criteria from
Thursday night on.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected over the next 7
days.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...Tongue
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE/DS
MARINE...JC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...JC/Maloit



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