Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 301734
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
134 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes off the Northeast Coast into Wednesday. A
cold front approaches late in the day Wednesday and moves through
Thursday. High pressure builds in through Saturday and moves off
the northeast coast Sunday through the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

Zonal flow aloft. Therefore, dry conditions will persist with
just some high cloudiness and fair weather cumulus through the
afternoon.

Thicknesses will be lower compared to yesterday, so temperatures
will not be nearly as warm as they have been, 5-10 degrees cooler
in most spots. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s for a
majority of the region. Some upper 70s are likely across the Twin
Forks of Long Island and southeastern Connecticut due to
seabreezes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure continues to push farther east Tuesday night
while an area of low pressure moves toward New England from south
central Canada. Its associated cold front will approach the area
late in the day Wednesday, with just a slight chance for some
showers and thunderstorms for mainly New York City and points north
and west.

High clouds will lower and thicken somewhat Tuesday night out ahead
of the approaching cold front. This will mean lows a few degrees
warmer than Monday night.

A southeast to south flow develops late in the day Tuesday and
Tuesday night, with winds veering to the southwest by late Tuesday
night. This will reintroduce a more humid and warmer air mass. Dew
points will rise into the upper 60s along the coast Tuesday night,
while Wednesday high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
on Tuesday, in the middle to upper 80s.

A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday, and possibly
longer, at the ocean beaches via 3-4 ft very long period SE swell
(13 seconds) generated by distant Hurricane Gaston. See the
National Hurricane Center for forecasts of Gaston.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A shortwave moving through central Canada and into the Great Lakes
will carve out a deepening trough for Wednesday night into Thursday.
The trough will then move to the northeast and weaken as a strong
ridge builds from the central United States. The mid and low level
flow will be weak and an associated cold front will be slow to move
through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday. Will carry
chance probabilities for showers with the frontal passage. CAPE and
instability are marginal Wednesday night and decrease Thursday. Will
mention isolated thunder Wednesday night and showers Thursday.

A cool and dry Canadian high builds into the area behind the front
and moves off the northeast coast Sunday and remains into the
beginning of next week. The airmass modifies into the weekend and a
return flow develops Sunday into Monday with temperatures and dew
points increasing.

A high risk for strong rip currents likely continues into Friday due
to persistent SE swells from Gaston. See the National Hurricane
Center for forecasts of Gaston.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will drift eastward over the Atlantic through
Wednesday.

A combination of sea breeze and return flow around the exiting
high pressure system can be expected through Wednesday. This
translates into roughly 160-220 true winds through the TAF period.
Localized variability possible at times.

VFR is generally expected through Wednesday. There is a low
probability that stratus develops late tonight and produces
ceilings around 1000 ft. For the TAFs, only included a mention of
scattered clouds at this height due to the much higher VFR
likelihood.


...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: Variability between 180 and 120 true is
possible through 21Z.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected.


.Outlook for 18Z Wednesday through Sunday...
.Rest of Wednesday...low chance of MVFR or lower late at night.
.Thursday...Showers possible with a cold frontal passage. Light
winds with variable direction due to localized effects, becoming
northwest late.
.Friday...VFR with northwest winds.
.Saturday and Sunday...Low probability for deep low pressure over
the Atlantic to impact the area. Otherwise, VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas remains in effect east
of Fire Island Inlet into this evening. Thereafter, seas will
diminish to around 4 ft. Elsewhere, seas should remain around 4 ft
through Wednesday, though seas could touch 5 ft sporadically at
times even in the central and eastern zones. Winds should remain
below 25 kt through Wednesday.

A cold front crosses the waters during Thursday. Thereafter high
pressure builds into the waters. Wednesday night into Saturday winds
and seas are expected to remain below small craft level. Southeast
swells continue into Friday from Gaston. With another system
possibly moving through the Atlantic and a persistent northeast
flow, small craft seas will become likely Saturday night and
remain into Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant widespread precipitation is expected, and moderate
to severe drought conditions continue. Around a quarter of an
inch of rainfall is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry
weather expected Thursday night into the beginning of next week.

Moderate to severe drought conditions continue. The next local
drought statement updated is scheduled for September 1st.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...FEB/Maloit/JP/MET
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FEB/Maloit/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.